step 5: analysis of causal diary

Step 5: Analysis of Step 5: Analysis of Causal DiaryCausal Diary

Step 5: Analysis of Step 5: Analysis of Causal DiaryCausal Diary

Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

This research was funded by Grant RO1 HL 084767 from the National Heart Blood and Lung

Institute.

Step 5: Analysis of Step 5: Analysis of Causal DiariesCausal Diaries

Step 5: Analysis of Step 5: Analysis of Causal DiariesCausal Diaries

Continues from a previous Continues from a previous section section

Clean Data

Clean Data

Get More Data

Maximum Impact of a Cause

Making a Cause Unconstrained

Day 3

Making a Cause Unconstrained

Making a Cause Unconstrained

Day 14

Making a Cause Unconstrained

Day 14

Reducing Universe of Possibilities

Maximum Impact of a Cause

Minimum Impact of a Cause

Day Rain

Plan to commute with

bikePlan to

shower at gym Sleep earlyExercise

pattern kept1 1 1 0 0 02 0 0 1 1 13 0 0 1 1 04 0 1 1 0 15 1 1 1 0 16 1 1 0 0 07 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 1 0 19 0 0 0 0 0

10 1 1 0 1 111 0 0 0 0 012 0 0 1 0 113 1 0 1 0 114 0 1 0 0 1

1=Yes, 0=No

Example

Unconstrained CausesDay

Plan to commute with bike

Plan to shower at gym Sleep early

Exercise pattern kept

1 0 0 0 02 0 1 1 13 0 1 1 04 1 1 0 15 0 1 0 16 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 08 0 1 0 19 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 1 111 0 0 0 012 0 1 0 113 0 1 0 114 1 0 0 1

1=Yes, 0=No

Maximum Impact of Planning to Bike to

Work

DayPlan to commute

with bikePlan to shower

at gym Sleep earlyExercise

pattern kept4 1 1 0 1

14 1 0 0 1

Minimum Impact of Planning to Bike to

Work

DayPlan to commute

with bikePlan to shower

at gym Sleep earlyExercise

pattern kept4

14 1 0 0 1

Impact of Various Causes

Probability of Success Given the CauseMinimum Maximum

Plan to commute with bike 1 1

Plan to shower at gym 0.80 0.86

Sleep early 0.50 0.67

Lecture ContinuesLecture ContinuesLecture ContinuesLecture Continues

Step 6: Taking ActionStep 6: Taking Action