statistic survey connected to the weather forecasting

The lunar cycle is divided into 4

phases – quarters, they were

meaningful in rural habits and

culture: the peasants sowed and

harvested taking into consideration

the phase of the moon and

following Barbanera’s almanack

advice

Barbanera was an astronomer, hermit, and philosopher and lived in Foligno.

He started studying the elements of the sky, focusing his attention on the moon

and its phases.

He built up an almanack where he forecast the weather for the whole year

and gave peasants advice how to do their work in the field taking into consideration

the 4 phases of the moon.

These forecasts were sent out in the town by his friend and follower Silvano, who contributed to making him famous.

Since 1762 the almanac has

been giving the weather forecast

for the whole year according to

the quartes of the moon

The old almanac The modern almanac

Let’s compare then, the forecasts of the almanack and the actual performance of

the Quintana

The Quintana is a historical commemoration dating back to 1600. The

objective of the competition is to pierce the rings and to score 90 points in the shortest time. The three rings, whose size changes in diameter after every

round, hang in the right hand of the God, a wooden statue located in the centre of

the track. During the race competition which takes place at “Campo De Li Giochi” the knights of the ten words compete for the Palio (a silk banner).The eight shaped

track of the “Campo De Li Giochi” where

the competition takes place

When it is sunny the tournament takes place regularly

When it is changeable it may take place or may be postponed

Whe it is rainy, it is postponed by a week, if the bad weather continues it is definetely cancelled.

Correct forecast

Value = 1

• sunny /tournament takes place

• rainy / tournament postponed

• changeable

Wrong forecast

Value = 0

• sunny / tournament postponed

• rainy / tournament takes place

The total number of correct forecasts is 3333

The number of the wrong forecasts is 88

The percentage of reliability 33/4133/41 = around 80 %80 %

RELIABILITY OF BARBANERA'S FORECASTS"VARIABLE" ALWAYS CORRECT

80%

20%

1 = PREVISIONI ESATTECOMPRESI I VARIABILI

0 = PREVISIONI ERRATE

RELIABILITY OF BARBANERA'S FORECASTS "VARIABLE" EXCLUDED

65%

35%

1 = PREVISIONI ESATTE ESCLUSIVARIABILI0 = PREVISIONI ERRATE