state budget update

State Budget Update

Legislative Analyst’s Office

C.A.S.H. Fall ConferenceOctober 15, 2013

www.lao.ca.gov

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Update on U.S. Economy

Gross Domestic Product Projected to Grow About 3 Percent AnnuallyYear-to-Year Percent Change

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Personal Income Projected to Grow About 5 Percent AnnuallyYear-to-Year Percent Change

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S&P 500 Volatile But Projected to Grow Over Period Year-to-Year Percent Change

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Employment Projected to GrowLess Than 2 Percent AnnuallyYear-to-Year Percent Change

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Major Concerns

Federal Shutdown Debt Ceiling Impasse Downturn in Stock Market

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Update on California Economy

Payroll Employment GrowingIn Eight Industry SectorsPercent Change From August 2012 to August 2013

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Unemployment Rate for 12 Largest Counties Varies NotablyRate in August 2013

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Significant Increase in Housing Prices in State’s Large Metropolitan AreasPercent Change

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State Revenue Growth Linked With Stock Market GrowthYear-Over-Year Percent Change

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Revenue Update

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Budget Act Revenue AssumptionsGeneral Fund and Education Protection Account Combined(Dollars in Millions)

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General Fund ConditionUnder Budget ActGeneral Fund and Education Protection Account Combined(Dollars in Millions)

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2012-13 State Revenue UpdateYear End (In Millions)

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2013-14 State Revenue Update

Personal Income Tax (PIT) Withholding Above Projections

PIT Estimated Payments Above Projections Sales Tax Revenues Below Projections Corporate Tax Revenues Below Projections

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Education Budget Recap

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Proposition 98 FundingIn Millions

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Major 2012-13 ChangesIn Millions

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Major 2013-14 ChangesIn Millions

Programmatic Per-Pupil Funding ReboundingPer-Pupil Funding in Dollars

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Tracking Deferral PaydownsIn Millions

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Education Budget Outlook

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Pessimistic Scenario

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Best Guess Scenario

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Optimistic Scenario

Visit the LAO website at:www.lao.ca.gov

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