spatial risk assessment of rift valley fever potential outbreaks using a vector surveillance system...
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Spatial risk assessment of Rift Valley Fever potential outbreaks using a vector surveillance system in
Kenya
Presented at KVA Scientific Conference at Boma Hotel, Eldoret 25th April 2014
Nanyingi M,Ogola E, Olang G, Otiang E, Munyua P, Thumbi S, Bett B, Muchemi G, Kiama S and Njenga K
History, Etiology and Epidemiology
Montgomery , 1912, Daubney 1931, Davies 1975, Jost et al., 2010
RVF viral zoonosis of cyclic occurrence(5-10yrs), described In Kenya in 1912 isolated in 1931 in sheep with hepatic necrosis and fatal abortions.
RVFV is an OIE transboundary high impact pathogen and CDC category A select agent.
Etiology: Phlebovirus in Bunyaviridae (Family).
Genome: tripartite RNA segments designated large (L), medium (M), and small (S) contained in a spherical (80–120 nm in diameter) lipid bilayer.
Risk factors:Precipitation: > 600mm, floodingAltitude: <1100masl Vector +: Aedes, culicines spp?NDVI: 0.1 units > 3 monthsSoil : Solonetz, Solanchaks, planosols
Historical Outbreaks Epidemics in Africa and recently Arabian Peninsula; in Egypt (1977), Kenya (1997–1998, 2006-2007), Saudi Arabia (2000–2001) and Yemen (2000–2001), Sudan (2007) and Mauritania (2010)
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RVF Vector Emergence (Ecological and Climatic)
Precipitation: ENSO/Elnino above average rainfall leading hydrographical modifications/flooding (“dambos”,dams,irrigation channels).
Vector Presence: 35/38 spp. (interepidemic transovarial maintenance by aedes 1º and culicine 2º (vectorial capacity/ competency)
Dense vegetation cover =Persistent NDVI.(0.1 units > 3 months)
Soil types: Solonetz, Solanchaks, planosols (drainage/moisture)
Elevation : altitude <1,100m asl
Linthicum et al., 1999; Anyamba et al., 2009; Hightower et al., 2012
Objectives
Overall Objective Investigate climatic, ecological, entomological and
environmental drivers of RVF outbreaks in Kenya.
Specific ObjectivesGeographical mapping and systematic classification of RVF
risk levels based on presence of competent vectors.
Develop a Vector surveillance Systems (VSS) RVF vector distribution map for Kenya
Molecular characterizing of RVFV and phylogenetic profiling by geographical distribution.
Justification RVF is broadening its geographic range in Kenya with potentially significant
burden on animal and human health. Previous RVF predictive models have factored in climatic and environmental variables to forecast occurrence.
This will be first attempt at a national level to create RVF vector surveillance system and predictive risk maps for Kenya using vector distribution profile to guide in strategic surveillance and control strategies.
“Mosquitoes, flies, ticks and bugs may be a threat to your health – and that of your family - at home and when travelling. This is the message of this year’s World Health Day, on 7 April.”
VBD = RVF + Malaria
Study Design and Research Approach Cross-sectional and purposive design1. Randomization of 15 high and 15 low risk (Case & Control)
districts based on RVF occurrence data (2006-2007).
2. Seasonality based on precipitation : Wet and dry
3. Monthly multisite sampling: 40 points in 4 quadrants.
4. Population based: Livestock and household distribution.
5. Socioeconomic survey (SES) and health care access.
6. Multivariable geostatistical analysis for RVF risk prediction.
KEMRI CDC Ethical Clearance SSC 1849
Geographical Distribution of Arthropod Vectors and Exploration of Pathogens they
Transmit in Kenya
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Protocol development Malaria Endemicity zones
Weighted Probability index
Randomization of case and control areas.
Aedes and culicines are main focus.
Spatial distribution of vectors in relation to RVF.
Ecological Niche Modeling (Maxent- Entropy)
Phylogenetic characterization
Design of control strategies for vectors/vaccination prioritization
Methodology: Integrated Vector dynamics conceptual framework
IN-SITU RS DATA IN-SITU RS DATA ENTOMOLOGICAL DATAENTOMOLOGICAL DATA
Hazard and Vulnerability Maps(Environmental Risk)
ZPOM
Hazard and Vulnerability Maps(Environmental Risk)
ZPOM
Presence(Map Breeding sites) Abundance (Density) Flying range Host contact rate
Presence(Map Breeding sites) Abundance (Density) Flying range Host contact rate
Precipitation (WorldClim) Land cover (SPOT 7) Soil types Elevation (DEM) NDVI
Precipitation (WorldClim) Land cover (SPOT 7) Soil types Elevation (DEM) NDVI
Humans Humans Livestock(Ruminant)
Livestock(Ruminant)
VECTOR RISK MAP
RVF OCCURRENCE DATA
RVF OCCURRENCE DATA
Tourre YM (2009) Global Health Action. Vol.2
Entomological Surveillance
Habitat and Ecological EvaluationHabitat and Ecological Evaluation
Larval Scooping Larval Scooping Entomological characterizationEntomological characterization
Species identification Species identification
GPS MappingGPS Mapping
Data: Environmental/Climatic databases and Secondary sources
Statistical and Spatial Analysis
Descriptive analysis for vector distribution on land cover was done using R- Statistic.
Spatial data was analysed by creation of thematic distribution maps of vector species, livestock density in Qgis and ArcGIS 9.3.
Raster analysis using geoprocessing tools for buffering was used to estimate the ZPOM. Zonal statistic function for delimiting thresholds for elevation(DEM) and terrain analysis using raster calculator was estimated.
The boundaries of the risk maps were set by creating a spatial mask to define the potential epizootic area (PEAM) by thresholding method on NDVI climatological values (0.15–0.4) NDVI units and precipitation of < 500mm pa
Mosquitoes collected( %) (N≈ 3000) for 11 months
Compartmental Model: Ordinary Differential Equation
Chitnis et al 2006;
Herd Immunity
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Primary vectors and Host contact analysis Ae. Aegypti Ae dimorphous A. mcintoshi Ae. Circumluteolus Ae. ochraceus
Goats: Primary hosts for viral intensification before spill over.
Human- animal aggregation increasing biting rates
Multi-vector correlation to Rainfall and NDVI
Aedes mcintosh
Ae.circumluteolus
Ae.Ochraceus,
Mansonia uniformis,
Cx. poicilipes,
Cx bitaeniorhynchus
Anopheles
squamosus
Mansonia africana,
Cx. quinquefasciatus,
Cx. univittatus ,
Ae. pembaensis,
Ae. Pembaensis
Cx. bitaeniorhynchus
Sang et al 2010
r
h
Culex eggs
Aedes eggs
t0Jan Dec
t20
h
Aedes eggs
r
Culex eggs
t0
Jan Dec
Adu
lt D
ensi
ty
Adu
lt D
ensi
ty
17
Elevation (DEM) determinant for Multivector spread
• Altitude influences flooding patterns and vector emergence.
• 1100m asl favors RVF occurrence by influencing vector flight rate and competence.
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Limitations of the study
Transhumance: The seasonal movement of humans with their livestock that are sero-positive may complicate conclusive associations between the vector presence, epidemiological data and ecological predictors.
Temporal and spatial correlation was not explicitly examined due to insufficient RVF serological and vector presence data.
Lack of reliable climatic and ecological parameters from local databases hence leading to risk generalization projected from the global databases.
19
Further Analysis
Bayesian geostastical modeling: spatial and non spatial models with other covariate like distance from water bodies would provide explanatory predictions for vector emergence.
Ecological Niche Modelling: Maxent and GARP analysis is therefore recommended to explain species distribution in non-sampled areas.
Database refining: Cost effective surveillance mechanisms are necessary for definition of spatial risk of RVF at a small scale, the role wildlife spillover can be assessed.
Compartmental transmission models: Multivector– Multihost risk models will be informative.
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Conclusions and Recommendations This is an empirical attempt to predict large-scale country
level spatial patterns of RVF occurrence using vector data and ecological predictor variables.
The vector predictive risk maps will be useful to animal and human health decision-makers for planning surveillance and control in RVF known high-risk areas.
Cost effective vaccination programs can be spatially targeted contiguous high-risk areas with evidence from detailed epidemiologic and entomological investigations.
The forecasting and early detection of RVF outbreaks using the VSS can assist in comprehensive risk assessment of pathogen diffusion to naive areas, hence essential to enable effective and timely control measures to be implemented.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Data sources
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); available at https://lpdaac.usgs.gov
World Clim - Global Climate data, available at http://www.worldclim.org/ United States Geological Services (USGS) Digital Elevation Model
(DEM) available at: http://eros.usgs.gov/ Global Land Cover Network (GLCN):available at
http://www.glcn.org/databases/lc_gc-africa_en.jsp
Collaborating Institutions
DVS, DDSR,DVBD,MOPH, ZDU
Individuals
Participants(SES), DVOs, CHW, Local administrators
Contact : mnanyingi@kemricdc.org, mnanyingi@gmail.com
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