southindianbank 2qfy2013ru nw
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7/31/2019 SouthIndianBank 2QFY2013RU Nw
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Particulars
Pre-prov. profit 200 207 (3.8) 166 20.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
For 2QFY2013, South Indian Bank (SIB) reported a muted net profit growth of
2.3% yoy (down 21.0% qoq) to `97cr, which is lower than our as well as the
streets estimates. This is on account of higher provisioning expenses due to a large
government account (NAFED, `150cr) slipping during the quarter and due to
employee related fraud worth `32cr. Adjusting for interest reversal on NAFED (`20cr)
and interest on income tax refund (`15cr), the pre-provisioning profit was however, in
line with our estimates.
For 2QFY2013, the
banks business growth remained healthy, with advances growing by 20.6% yoy
and deposits growing by 16.5% yoy. The reported NIM as of 1HFY2013 stood at
3.1%, lower than 3.2% reported for 1QFY2013. The fee income of the bank
reported a strong growth of 69.8% yoy during 2QFY2013, primarily driven by a
39.1% yoy growth in commission, exchange and brokerage (CEB) income and
due to interest on income tax refund of `15cr (classified as non-interest income).
The asset quality of the bank surprised negatively in 2QFY2013, with slippages
increasing to `235cr (annualised slippage ratio of 3.5%) compared to `91cr in
1QFY2013. The rise in slippages during 2QFY2013 can be primarily attributed toa major government account (NAFED, exposure of `150cr) slipping during the
quarter. Also, there was an employee related fraud worth `34cr (`2cr recovered)
during the quarter which added on the NPA levels.
The banks asset quality which had held up pretty well till
now in spite of the macro headwinds (which have led to higher provisioning
expenses for most banks) has started to witness signs of pressure. Although, the
high slippages in 2QFY2013 were mostly one-off in nature and most of the
amount is expected to be recovered entirely before FY2013 end, aggressive yields
(~12.8%) on non-gold loan portfolio however could lead to stress on the balance
sheet and provide downside risk to the banks RoA. Having said that, the stock
has been an underperformer compared to peers since the start of FY2013 and at
FY2014E P/ABV of 1.0x and expected FY2014 RoA of 1.0%, we believe there is
some room for upside in the stock.
Key financials (standalone)
% chg 39.2 29.2 22.5 14.9
% chg 25.1 37.3 15.5 10.7
NIM (%) 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7
P/E (x) 8.6 6.3 6.4 5.8
P/ABV (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9
RoA (%) 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
RoE (%) 18.5 21.6 19.1 16.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
CMP `22
Target Price `25
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector Banking
Market Cap (` cr) 2,972
Beta 0.9
52 Week High / Low 28/20
Avg. Daily Volume 243,699
Face Value (`) 1
BSE Sensex 18,793
Nifty 5,717
Reuters Code SIBK.BO
Bloomberg Code SIB@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters -
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 13.0
FII / NRIs / OCBs 47.8
Indian Public / Others 39.2
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 9.6 12.0 11.9
SIB (6.3) (3.5) 56.7
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808
vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847
varun.varma@angelbroking.com
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872
sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Performance Highlights
2QFY2013 Result Update | Banking
October 22, 2012
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
October 22, 2012 2
Exhibit 1:2QFY2013 performance (standalone)
- on Advances / Bills 851 858 (0.8) 702 21.2 1,709 1,312 30.3- on investments 185 181 1.8 152 21.8 366 296 23.8
- on balance with RBI & others 36 30 20.4 24 51.7 66 39 71.8
Other income excl. treasury 62 55 12.8 42 48.5 117 78 49.1
- Fee Income 59 46 29.2 35 69.8 21 16 32.4
- Treasury Income 11 20 (46.0) 11 (4.6) 31 26 17.4
- Others 3 9 (70.8) 7 (61.3) 96 63 53.4
- Employee expenses 101 100 1.3 88 15.7 202 157 28.6
- Other Opex 69 64 8.4 58 20.2 134 102 30.7
- Provisions for NPAs 55 20 179.4 5 1,053.5 74 7 894.7
- Provisions for Investments - - - 11 (100.0) - 15 (100.0)
- Provisions for Standard Assets 5 2 111.1 7 (33.2) 7 21 (65.6)
- Other Provisions (4) 3 - 1 - (0) 1 -
Effective Tax Rate (%) 32.4 32.4 (5)bp 33.4 (99)bp 32.4 33.0 (58)bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:2QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimatesNet interest income 298 304 (1.9)
Non-interest income 73 61 19.2
Operating expenses 171 171 (0.1)
Provisions & cont. 56 27 110.2
PBT 144 167 (13.9)
Prov. for taxes 47 54 (14.0)
Source: Company, Angel Research
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
October 22, 2012 3
Exhibit 3:2QFY2013 performance analysis (standalone)
Advances (`cr) 28,156 27,349 2.9 23,348 20.6Deposits (`cr) 38,490 37,153 3.6 33,038 16.5
Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) 73.2 73.6 (46)bp 70.7 248bp
Current deposits (`cr) 1,362 1,445 (5.7) 1,274 6.9
Saving deposits (`cr) 6,321 6,390 (1.1) 5,764 9.7
CASA deposits (`cr) 7,683 7,835 (1.9) 7,038 9.2
CASA ratio (%) 20.0 21.1 (113)bp 21.3 (134)bp
CAR (%) 14.4 13.2 127bp 13.5 95bp
Tier 1 CAR (%) 12.3 10.9 142bp 10.8 152bp
Cost of deposits# 8.3 8.4 (11)bp 7.7 64bp
Yield on advances# 12.8 13.0 (25)bp 12.1 65bp
Reported NIM# 3.1 3.2 (6)bp 3.0 12bp
Cost-to-income ratio 46.1 44.2 194bp 46.7 (54)bp
Gross NPAs (` cr) 496 295 68.2 231 115.1
Gross NPAs (%) 1.7 1.1 66bp 1.0 75bp
Net NPAs (`cr) 242 95 154.2 58 314.8
Net NPAs (%) 0.9 0.4 51bp 0.3 61bp
Provision Coverage Ratio (%) 51.2 67.7 (1650)bp 74.7 (2349)bp
Slippage ratio (%) 3.4 1.8 167bp 0.5 291bp
Loan loss provision to avg. assets (%) 0.5 0.2 33bp 0.1 47bp
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note# : On a cumulative basis
Margins lower for 1HFY2013
For 2QFY2013, the banks business growth remained healthy, with advances
growing by 20.6% yoy and deposits growing by 16.5% yoy. The growth in current
account - savings account (CASA) deposits was moderate with current account
deposits growing by 6.9% yoy and savings account deposits growing by 9.7% yoy.
The bank has been seeing weakness in its NRE savings account franchise since the
de-regulation in the NRE-TD rates. The NRE-SB deposits decreased by 10.7% qoq
during 2QFY2013 and since the de-regulation (3QFY2012), have declined by
19.0% on an absolute basis. While the cost of deposits has increased on account
of upward re-pricing of NRE-TD and flight of NRE-SB to NRE-TD, the bank has
been able to increase its yields on loans, thereby protecting its NIMs.
A large government account slipped during the quarter (NAFED, exposure of
`150cr) on which the bank had to take an interest reversal of `20cr. The bank also
received interest on income tax refund worth `15cr. However, the bank classified
the interest income from income tax refund under other income. The reported NIM
as of 1HFY2013 stood at 3.1%, lower than 3.2% reported for 1QFY2013. The cost
of deposits for 1HFY2013 stood at 8.3% (8.4% for 1QFY2013), while yield on
advances for 1HFY2013 stood at 12.8% (13.0% for 1QFY2013).
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
October 22, 2012 4
Exhibit 4:NRI Deposit breakupNRE SB 1,372 1,536 1,358 1,693
NRO SB 207 200 188 173FCNR (B) +RFC 333 400 411 459
LOW COST TERM DEPOSIT 128 100 348 831
HIGH COST NRE TERM DEPOSIT 2,978 2,232 1,036 -
NRO TERM DEPOSIT 661 932 1,275 1,299
Source: Company, Angel Research
The banks overall priority sector lending stands at `5,000cr compared to the
regulatory requirement of `10,000cr, leading to a significant shortfall of `5,000cr.
The yields on Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF) are on the lower endand SIB could face margin pressures if they are not able to increase their priority
sector lending over 2HFY2013.
The gold loan portfolio of the bank declined on a qoq basis and now stands at
~`6,300cr (~22% of the overall loan book). The management has guided for a
credit growth of 25% for FY2013.
Exhibit 5:Advances growth remains above system
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6:CASA ratio* witnesses uptick qoq
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note* : Excluding FCNR, RFC
Exhibit 7:NIM trends*
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note* On cumulative basis
Exhibit 8:Trend in yield on advances*
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note* On cumulative basis
31.
8
30.
6
33.
1
23.
5
20.
6
31.
8
25.
4
22.
8
17.
5
16.
5
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
Advances yoy growth (%,) Depos its yoy growth (%)
21.3 21.5
19.7
21.1
20.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
21.0
24.0
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
(%)
3.0
3.13.1
3.23.1
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
1HFY12 9MFY12 FY2012 1QFY13 1HFY13
(%)
12.112.3
12.5
13.012.8
8.5
9.5
10.5
11.5
12.5
13.5
1HFY12 9MFY12 FY2012 1QFY13 1HFY13
(%)
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
October 22, 2012 5
Strong performance on CEB front and interest on income tax
refund boosts other income
The fee income of the bank reported a strong growth of 69.8% yoy during
2QFY2013, primarily driven by 39.1% yoy growth in CEB income and due to
interest on income tax refund of `15cr (classified into other income). The forex
income came in at a weak `3cr, while treasury income remained flat yoy at `11cr.
Exhibit 9:Break-up of non-interest incomeFee income 59* 46 29.2 35 69.8
Treasury gains 11 20 (46.0) 11 (4.6)
Profit on exchange transactions 3 9 (70.9) 7 (61.4)
Excluding treasury 62 55 12.8 42 48.5Source: Company, Angel Research; Note*includes `15cr of interest on income tax refund
Slippages mostly one-offs
The asset quality of the bank surprised negatively in 2QFY2013, with slippages
increasing to `235cr (annualised slippage ratio of 3.5%) compared to `91cr in
1QFY2013. The rise in slippages during 2QFY2013 can be primarily attributed to
a major government account (NAFED, exposure of `150cr) slipping during the
quarter. Also, there was an employee related fraud worth `34cr (`2cr recovered)
during the quarter which added on the NPA levels.
The management is already in talks with NAFED and is confident of a near-full
recovery before the year-end (some haircut would have to be taken). For the
employee related fraud, the bank already has collateral of `10cr while another
`10cr is expected to be retrieved via insurance. Hence, according to the
management the maximum loss from the fraud is expected to be not more than
`10cr.
As a result of higher slippages, the banks gross NPA levels increased by 68.2%
qoq, while net NPA levels more than doubled sequentially during the quarter. Also
the banks provisioning coverage ratio declined sharply by 1,650bps to 51.2%.
The bank restructured ~`71cr worth of accounts (taking the total restructuringbook to `1,293cr). The bank does not have any major restructuring in pipeline
currently, but the management remains wary of any incremental additions to the
restructuring book.
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
October 22, 2012 6
Exhibit 10:Asset quality deteriorates
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11:Slippages mostly one-offs
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12:Opex to average asset trends
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 13:Cost to income ratio trends
Source: Company, Angel Research
Healthy capital adequacy
The bank raised `440cr of equity during the quarter through a qualified
institutional placement (QIP). As a result, the banks capital adequacy ratio (CAR)
increased at 14.4% (12.2% as of 1QFY2013) while tier-I ratio increased 12.3%
(10.9% as of 1QFY2013). The bank is not planning to raise any more capital this
year.
231
234
267
295
496
58
58
77
95
242
74.7 75.2
71.467.7
51.2
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
-
75
150
225
300
375
450
525
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
Gross NPAs (` cr) Net NPA (` cr) PCR (%, RHS)
0.5
0.7
1.3 1.3
-
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
(%)
1.6 1.6
2.1
1.6 1.6
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
(%)
46.7 46.3
55.6
44.246.1
30.0
36.0
42.0
48.0
54.0
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13
(%)
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
October 22, 2012 8
portfolio however could lead to stress on the balance sheet and provide downside
risk to the banks RoA. Having said that, the stock has been an underperformer
compared to peers since the start of FY2013 and at FY2014E P/ABV of 1.0x and
expected FY2014 RoA of 1.0%, we believe there is some room for upside in thestock.
Exhibit 15:Key assumptions
Credit growth 20.0 20.0 23.0 20.0
Deposit growth 20.0 20.0 23.0 20.0
CASA ratio 18.6 17.1 18.1 16.7
NIMs 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7
Other income growth 15.0 13.4 23.3 2.4Growth in staff expenses 18.0 18.0 18.0 16.0
Growth in other expenses 18.0 18.0 18.0 16.0
Slippages 1.3 1.3 2.0 1.2
Coverage ratio 66.2 67.1 63.1 59.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 16:Change in estimates
Non-interest income 284 305 7.2 322 312 (3.2)
Operating expenses 728 728 - 860 845 (1.7)
Provisions & cont. 106 141 32.2 128 145 13.1
PBT 700 687 (2.0) 773 760 (1.6)
Prov. for taxes 227 223 (2.0) 251 247 (1.6)
Source: Angel Research
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
October 22, 2012 9
Exhibit 17:P/ABV band
Source: Company, Angel Research
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Apr-
06
Sep-0
6
Fe
b-0
7
Jul-07
Dec-0
7
May-0
8
Oc
t-08
Mar-
09
Aug-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jun-1
0
Nov-1
0
Apr-
11
Sep-1
1
Fe
b-1
2
Jul-12
Dec-1
2
Price (`) 0.5x 0.8x 1.1x 1.4x 1.7x
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
October 22, 2012 10
Exhibit 18:Recommendation summary
AxisBk Accumulate 1,221 1,328 9 1.7 1.8 8.8 16.0 1.6 20.2FedBk Neutral 487 - - 1.2 - 9.3 7.5 1.1 13.5
HDFCBk Neutral 639 - - 3.6 - 17.7 27.9 1.9 22.0
ICICIBk* Buy 1,074 1,245 16 1.7 2.0 13.1 20.9 1.4 15.5
YesBk Buy 387 452 17 2.0 2.3 9.2 23.5 1.5 23.6
AllBk Reduce 143 131 (8) 0.6 0.5 3.9 (0.4) 0.9 15.7
AndhBk Sell 115 97 (15) 0.7 0.6 4.7 1.0 0.9 15.3
BOB Accumulate 783 864 10 0.9 1.0 5.6 7.1 1.0 17.2
BOI Accumulate 301 340 13 0.7 0.8 4.4 20.8 0.8 16.3
BOM Neutral 50 - - 0.6 - 4.3 35.5 0.7 15.5
CanBk Neutral 449 - - 0.8 - 5.3 7.2 0.9 15.3
CentBk Neutral 74 - - 0.7 - 3.5 100.1 0.6 14.7
CorpBk Accumulate 410 447 9 0.7 0.7 4.0 (2.2) 0.8 15.1
DenaBk Neutral 110 - - 0.7 - 4.5 3.1 0.8 15.9
IDBI# Accumulate 98 112 14 0.6 0.7 4.3 20.1 0.9 14.4
IndBk Neutral 184 - - 0.7 - 4.4 2.5 1.1 16.3
IOB Accumulate 80 87 8 0.5 0.6 3.8 27.1 0.6 13.6
J&KBk Neutral 1,135 - - 1.0 - 6.0 6.5 1.3 17.7
OBC Neutral 289 - - 0.6 - 4.6 26.5 0.9 13.9
PNB Buy 820 966 18 0.8 1.0 4.9 7.4 1.0 17.3
SBI* Neutral 2,242 - - 1.4 - 8.7 21.7 1.0 17.7
SynBk Neutral 122 - - 0.7 - 4.5 11.7 0.7 16.8
UcoBk Neutral 78 - - 0.8 - 4.7 7.9 0.6 14.4
UnionBk Accumulate 209 226 9 0.7 0.8 4.5 19.8 0.8 16.3
UtdBk Buy 68 81 19 0.5 0.6 3.1 20.7 0.7 16.2
VijBk Neutral 57 - - 0.7 - 5.0 12.1 0.5 13.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
South Indian Bank (SIB) is a small old generation private sector bank with ~84% ofits branches in southern India (66% in Kerala alone). Like Federal Bank, SIB also
has a large NRI customer base (13% of total deposits). Of late, the bank has
aggressively started focusing on the gold loan portfolio - a highly profitable and
secured loan segment. Gold loans accounted for ~23% of the bank's loan book as
of FY2012.
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
October 22, 2012 11
Income statement (standalone)
- YoY Growth (%) 7.2 32.7 8.7 39.2 29.2 22.5 14.9
- YoY Growth (%) 17.3 15.2 26.9 (5.6) 25.6 23.3 2.4
- YoY Growth (%) 9.7 28.0 13.0 27.2 28.4 22.6 12.5
- YoY Growth (%) 13.4 32.4 11.5 26.3 33.5 18.0 16.0
- YoY Growth (%) 6.8 24.3 14.5 27.9 24.0 27.0 9.4
- YoY Growth (%) (54.0) 0.7 (24.5) 84.4 (0.7) 77.8 2.8
- YoY Growth (%) 58.3 30.0 21.9 21.3 28.5 20.0 10.7
- as a % of PBT 34.6 35.4 36.4 34.3 29.8 32.4 32.4
- YoY Growth (%) 45.6 28.4 20.0 25.1 37.3 15.5 10.7
Balance sheet (standalone)
Share Capital 90 113 113 113 113 134 134
Reserve & Surplus 1,071 1,191 1,372 1,734 2,057 2,850 3,255
Deposits 15,156 18,092 23,012 29,721 36,501 44,896 53,875
- Growth (%) 23.8 19.4 27.2 29.2 22.8 23.0 20.0
Borrowings 28 257 1 25 323 500 598
Tier 2 Capital 155 155 330 265 265 258 252
Other Liab. & Prov. 590 571 706 962 1,111 1,385 1,681
Cash balances 974 998 1,391 1,828 1,572 2,020 2,155
Bank balances 729 1,038 597 638 1,069 1,324 1,583
Investments 4,572 6,075 7,156 8,924 9,400 11,823 14,237
Advances 10,454 11,848 15,823 20,489 27,281 33,555 40,266
- Growth (%) 32.0 13.3 33.6 29.5 33.1 23.0 20.0
Fixed Assets 113 136 153 357 378 468 559
Other Assets 249 284 415 585 671 832 994
- Growth (%) 25.2 19.2 25.3 28.5 23.0 23.9 19.5
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Ratio Analysis (standalone)
NIMs 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7
Cost to Income ratio 46.2 47.8 47.1 46.8 48.7 46.8 48.3
RoA 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9
RoE 16.4 16.0 17.0 18.5 21.6 19.1 16.9
CASA ratio 24.1 23.8 23.1 21.5 19.7 18.1 16.7
Credit/Deposit ratio 69.0 65.5 68.8 68.9 74.7 74.7 74.7
Net worth/ Assets 16.6 15.4 16.7 18.4 19.7 18.6 18.1
CAR 13.8 14.8 15.4 14.0 14.0 15.3 14.5
- Tier I 12.1 13.2 12.4 11.3 11.5 13.2 12.6
Gross NPAs 1.8 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.6
Net NPAs 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7
Slippages 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.8 2.0 1.2
NPA prov / avg.assets
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Provision Coverage 82.0 48.4 70.8 73.9 71.4 63.1 59.7
EPS 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.8
ABVPS (75% cover) 12.6 10.8 12.9 15.0 17.8 20.8 23.5
DPS 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7
PER (x) 13.3 12.9 10.8 8.6 6.3 6.4 5.8
P/ABVPS (x) 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9
Dividend Yield 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.7 2.7 3.1
NII 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6
(-) Prov. Exp. 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3
Adj NII 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.4
Treasury 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Int. Sens. Inc. 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.4
Other Inc. 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5
Op. Inc. 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.1 2.9
Opex 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5
PBT 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4
Taxes 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4
Leverage 16.6 15.4 16.7 18.4 19.7 18.6 18.1
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South Indian Bank | 2QFY2013 Result Update
O t b 22 2012 13
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
the past.
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Disclosure of Interest Statement South Indian Bank
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
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