south central pennsylvania housing recovery summit april 29, 2014 - york, pa
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South Central Pennsylvania
Housing Recovery Summit
April 29, 2014 - York, PA
A Region in Transition:
Recognizing Demographic
Changes and
their Implications
Center for Rural Pennsylvania
Legislative research agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly (Act 16, 1987 & Act 12, 2009)
Mandates• Administer grants to conduct research on rural conditions.
• Maintain a database on rural conditions and needs.
Center’s Database
• Pennsylvania’s most comprehensive database on rural trends and conditions
• Grants program “feeds” the database
• Data available on Center’s website or via email
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 (est )
Cities
Boroughs
1st Class Twps
2nd Class Twps
1st C lass Twps
1.5 Million 12%
Boros2.5 Million
20%
Cities3.0 Million
24%
2nd Class Twps
5.4 Million 44%
2040 Population Projections: Data Sources
• Projections were developed by Pennsylvania State Data Center in 2013
• Projections are based on the demographic cohort component model
– Base population, Census 2010– Group quarters populations are held
constant– Applied national fertility and survival rates
to Pennsylvania
• Projections are just that– projections– Useful window to understanding and
preparing for change
Cohort Component Model
Pennsylvania’s Rural and Urban Population, 1950 to 2040 (projected)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 (p) 2030 (p) 2040 (p)
71.1%73.1% 74.1% 72.4% 72.6% 72.4% 72.7% 73.2% 73.8% 74.4%
28.9%
26.9%25.9% 27.6% 27.4%
27.6%27.3%
26.8%26.2%
25.6%
RuralUrban
14,132.58813,759,594
13,230,17012,711,308
12,281,05411,881,64311,863,81211,793,90911,319,366
10,498,012
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Population in South Central Region,1950 to 2040 (projected)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p)
956,284
1,119,279
1,260,622
1,413,472
1,549,738
1,702,415
1,891,1841,999,876
2,111,3752,196,852
Rate of Population Change in South Central Region 1950 to 2040 (projected)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
1950 to 1960
1960 to 1970
1970 to 1980
1980 to 1990
1990 to 2000
2000 to 2010
2010 to 2020(p)
2020 to 2030(p)
2030 to 2040(p)
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
20.0%
United StatesPennsylvaniaSouth Central Region
Change in Population, 1980 to 2010 and 2010 to 2040
(projected)
Population Change, 1980 to 2010
Population Change, 2010 to 2040
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
South Central Region Age Cohorts
Blue = % Pop. MalesYellow = % Pop. Females
Red = Baby Boomers, Born 1946-64
1970
2010
2040 (proj)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
<55 to 9
10 to 1415 to 19
20-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85+
12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0
<5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0<5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0
Number of Youth and Senior Citizens in Pennsylvania and South Central Region 1950 to 2040 (projected)
Pennsylvania (Statewide) South Central Pennsylvania
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p)
2030(p)
2040(p)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p)
2030(p)
2040(p)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Youth, (<20 Years Old)Seniors (65+ Years Old)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Age Dependency Ratio, 1960 to 2040 (proj.)(# Persons Age <20 + Persons Age 65+)/(Persons Age 20 to 64)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p)50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
68.0%
85.7%
88.1%
75.2%72.3% 73.2%
67.8%
74.6%
86.0%86.0%
73.0%
89.5% 89.9%
74.9%
70.1%71.7%
69.8%
77.6%
89.5% 90.8%
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
Age Dependency Ratios, 2010 and
2040 (projected)
2010
2040 (projected)
*Age Dependency Ratio(# Persons <20 + # Persons 65+) (# Persons 20 to 64)Data source: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Births and Deaths, 1970 to 2040 (projected)
Pennsylvania Births and Deaths
South Central Region Births and Deaths
Data sources: PA Dept. of Health and Pennsylvania State Data Center
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
2005-10
2010-
15(p)
2015-
20(p)
2020-
25(p)
2025-
30(p)
2030-
35(p)
3035-
40(p)
500,000
525,000
550,000
575,000
600,000
625,000
650,000
675,000
700,000
725,000
750,000
775,000
800,000
825,000
850,000
Deaths
Births
1970-75
1975-80
1980-85
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
2005-10
2010-
15(p)
2015-
20(p)
2020-
25(p)
2025-
30(p)
2030-
35(p)
3035-
40(p)
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
Deaths
Births
Natural Population Change* by County, 2010 to 2040 (projected)
*Natural Change = # Births - # DeathsData sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
In-Migration by County, 2010 to 2040 (projected)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Projected Natural Change and Net Migration, 2010 to 2040
Pennsylvania South Central Region
Natural Change(Births - Deaths)165,347, (54%)
Domestic In-
Migration, 24,029,(17%)
Overseas In-
Migration, 114,273, (83%)
Natura
l Change (Births - Deaths) 397,471 (28%)
Domestic In-Migration
148,804 (15%)
Overseas In-Migration, 858,668, (85%)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Rural and Urban Counties, 2010 and
2040 (projected)
2010Statewide Population
Density = 284 Persons per Square Mile
2040 (proj.)Statewide Population
Density = 316 Persons per Square Mile
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Implication: #1: Housing
# New Housing Permits per 1,000 Population, 1990-2013
• Slower growth in new housing
• Shift in housing demand from large family homes to smaller homes
• Revitalization of housing in older boroughs and cities
• With lower demand, home prices could stabilize.
• Challenge of keeping senior citizens in their homes longer
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
United States
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
Implication #2: Families/Households
Types of Households in South Central Region, 1980 to 2010
• Smaller households.• Fewer households with
children.• Potential increased number
of multi-generational households.
• Likely increase in single person households.
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
1980 1990 2000 20100.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
55.0%
60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
Families with ChildrenMarried CouplesSingle Person Households
Implication #3: Economic Development
# Working Age Adults (20-64) in South Central Region 1950 - 2040 (proj.)
• Potential labor shortages for some businesses
• More older persons in workforce
• Stagnate or lower income tax revenues
• Increase demand for businesses to serve an older population
Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau & Pennsylvania State Data Center
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p)
2030(p)
2040(p)
552,609
590,657
663,726
807,335
910,846
991,247
1,113,631
1,126,107
1,114,307
1,151,272
Implication #4: Education
• No initial reduction in school taxes
• Potential school building closings in some districts– new building in other districts
Data Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education
Enrollment Changes in Enrollment2010 to 2020 (proj.)
Persons 85+ Years Old in South Central Region, 1960 to 2040 (Projected)
Implication #5: Health Care / Human Services
• Increased demand for:– Home health care
services– Transportation
services– Assisted living
quarters– Medical
specialists focusing on geriatric needs
• Quiet maternity wards, busy geriatric units
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020(p) 2030(p) 2040(p)
7,03410,428
15,906
21,776
30,477
42,270
50,255
61,519
90,709
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Implication #6: Community
Number of Persons Employed in Nonprofit Organization, 2008-12
• Volunteer organizations may find it difficult to recruit members (firefighters, youth soccer coaches, etc.)
• Fewer youth available to participate in organizations (Scouts, baseball, 4-H, etc.)
• Shift in citizens’ needs– youth reading programs at the library versus Meals-on-Wheels.
• With fewer persons working, community organizations may see decline in revenues (United Way, churches, etc.)
• Transfer of wealth from generation to generation
Data Source: 2008-12 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Thank You!
Barry L. Denk, Director
The Center for Rural Pennsylvania
625 Forster Street, Room 902
Harrisburg, PA 17120
717.787.9555
denkb@rural.palegislature.us
www.rural.palegislature.us
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