some impacts of climate change on coastal & other
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SHIRLEY CONSULTING ENGINEERS PTY LTDINVESTIGATIVE, REMEDIAL & GROUND ENGINEERING
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Andrew Shirley
SOME IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL & OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE
ENGINEERING DISCUSSION GROUP21 May 2013
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INTRODUCTION : PRESENTATION OUTLINE
CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCECO2, Temperature & StorminessCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PHYSICALCoastal Recession, Sea Level Rise & StormsEffect on Groundwater & Land StabilityCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PEOPLEPollution, economic, wars & refugeesADAPTATION & PLANNING IssuesUnderwriting & risk assessments, Hazards Engineering & Planning
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CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE
Climate has always been changing, but now it is faster than ever.97% of Climate Scientists agree man is causing the rapid climate change.Mainly caused by increased CO2 – currently 400ppm was about 250ppm at the beginning of the 18th centuryTemperature rise causes drought & increasingly violent storms – StorminessMore severe storms – more damage
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CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE
CO2 levels since 1700
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CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE
Sea Levels are rising – about 2 to 3mm / yearNSW Government Benchmark in 2012 was 900mm by 2100
Temperature is rising – possibly another2 degrees in the next 100 yearsMore severe storms are the resultA current 1 in 100 year event may occur every 20 to 25 yearsWHAT ARE THE IMPACTS?
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SOME IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES
COASTLINES WILL RETREAT FASTERAREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL FLOOD MORE OFTEN – and sooner than we think!GREATER BUSHFIRE RISKELECTRICITY GRID PROBLEMSTHESE CAN ALL LEAD TO:
1. MORE REFUGEES & POSSIBLE WARS2. COLLAPSE OF FINANCIAL & PROPERTY MARKETS
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BLUFF & COASTAL RECESSION
COASTLINE, BEACHES & BLUFFS [cliffs & headland] ALREADY RETREATRockfalls and house / structure collapsesFASTER RECESSION WILL ENDANGER MORE QUICKLY PROPERTYPROPERTY LOSSES TRANSLATE TO FINANCIAL PROBLEMS
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BLUFF RECESSION & PLANNINGWhale Beach Rockfall in 2003
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BLUFF RECESSION & PLANNINGCoastal Recession in the UK
(In similar materials to CTH)
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BLUFF RECESSION & PLANNINGAda Avenue, Noraville Headland
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BLUFF RECESSION & PLANNINGAda Avenue, Noraville Headland
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COASTAL RECESSION : MECHANISMEFFECT ON STRUCTURES
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BLUFF RECESSION & PLANNINGCabbage Tree Bay / Harbour
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COASTAL RECESSION MECHANISMCABBAGE TREE HARBOUR / BAY
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSSEA LEVEL RISE & STORMS
LOW LYING AREAS FLOOD MORE OFTEN
NEED FOR EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS IN SEVERE STORMS – e.g. the Queensland floodsSEWER SYSTEMS FAIL e.g. Chittaway Point in 2007ELECTRICITY SYSTEM CAN FAIL DUE TO SUB-STATION FLOODING
1. As a result of tide & groundwater rise from changes in pressure
2. Some residential areas will become uninhabitable
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSSEA LEVEL RISE & STORMS
STRUCTURES FAIL IN UNFORESEEN WAYS
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSSEA LEVEL RISE & STORMS
1. About 1,000 homes flooded2. About 10,000 properties flooded3. 500 people rescued4. Four to five days of high flood water in Tuggerah
Lakes5. Failure of the Chittaway Point Sewer System
(vacuum system)
WYONG SHIRE, DAMAGE FROM THE 2007 FLOOD INCLUDED:
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSSEA LEVEL RISE & STORMS
STRUCTURES FAIL IN UNFORESEEN WAYSElectrical Tower affected by landslide
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSSEA LEVEL RISE & STORMS
STRUCTURES FAIL IN UNFORESEEN WAYS
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSSEA LEVEL RISE & STORMS
STRUCTURES FAIL IN UNFORESEEN WAYS
Land before the floodElect Tower
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PEOPLE
POLLUTION & HEALTH ISSUESAir Pollution from increased dust storms, increased fog / smog issuesHealth effects on the elderly and weak
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS – PEOPLESydney Dust Storm 23 September 2009
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PEOPLESydney Dust Storm 23 September 2009
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS - PEOPLE
ECONOMIC ISSUESProperty devaluations & debt defaults can cause financial institutions to fail.
WARS & REFUGEESWhere will the people of Bangladesh or Tuvalu go?What will happen if we all stop using coal?
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ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUES
NOT ALL GLOOM AND DOOMBut it is a BIG problem & we need to act NOW!ENGINEERS CAN CHANGE THINGSBut politicians need to get on board and resolve to changeINSURERS CAN HELP TO DRIVE CHANGEe.g. The insurance industry established the fire brigade
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ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUES
ENGINEERING, PLANNING & HAZARDSCoastal Structures must be designed to cope with change, but it costs $$Coastal Councils must be forced to have good hazard identification and risk assessmentsInsurers can help drive these issues
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ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUESHurricane Ike : 2008 – Last House StandingStructures can be designed to cope with storms
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ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUES
INSURERS CAN DRIVE CHANGE : HOW?
BY LOBBYING STRONGLY
IN UNDERWRITING POLICY
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ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUESINSURERS CAN DRIVE CHANGE : HOW?
Lobby government / local government for:EFFECTIVE HAZARD RECOGNITION & MAPS(but by studies by competent organisations & fund / co-fund them yourself if you need to).PUBLICLY CHALLENGE THE CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS – 97% of the world’s climate scientists agree our CC is caused by man.STRONGLY LOBBY FOR REDUCING C02EMISSIONS & ADOPT A CARBON NEUTRAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY
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ADAPTATION & PLANNING ISSUESINSURERS CAN DRIVE CHANGE : HOW?UNDERWRITING ASSESSMENTS, get advice on:
1. Near the coast – find out about the impact of cliffs and areas behind beaches on structures
2. Recognise the impact of Sea Level Rise & Groundwater Rise on low lying areas
3. Refer to Council’s Hazard Maps & Risk Assessments. e.g. geotechnical, flood & fire
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