société suisse de médecine interne, lausanne, may 21, 2001 press conference, grand âge :...
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Société Suisse de Médecine Interne, Lausanne, May 21, Société Suisse de Médecine Interne, Lausanne, May 21, 20012001
Press Conference,Press Conference,
Grand âge : jusqu’où pouvons nous Grand âge : jusqu’où pouvons nous aller ? aller ?
Jean-Marie RobineJean-Marie Robine
Robine and Paccaud, 2005
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Males Females
Switzerland
Increase in life expectancy in SwitzerlandIncrease in life expectancy in Switzerland
How many new born become adulte?How many new born become adulte?
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
1751 1776 1801 1826 1851 1876 1901 1926 1951 1976 2001
Denmark
England
France
Japan
Netherlands
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
USA
sex women
Somme de lx
Year
country
75000
80000
85000
90000
95000
100000
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
90000
92000
94000
96000
98000
100000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Halley, first life table, 1693Halley, first life table, 1693
Halley 1687-1691
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Halley 1687-1691
Sweden, 1754-1756Sweden, 1754-1756
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Halley 1687-1691
Sweden 1754-1756
Switzerland, 1876-1880Switzerland, 1876-1880
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Halley 1687-1691
Sweden 1754-1756
Switzerland 1876-1880
Japan, 1950-1954Japan, 1950-1954
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Halley 1687-1691
Sweden 1754-1756
Switzerland 1876-1880
Japan 1950-1954
Fries (1980)Fries (1980)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Halley 1687-1691
Sweden 1754-1756
Switzerland 1876-1880
Japan 1950-1954
Fries (1980)
Japan 1980-1984Japan 1980-1984
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Halley 1687-1691
Sweden 1754-1756
Switzerland 1876-1880
Japan 1950-1954
Japan 1980-1984
Fries (1980)
Japan 2000-2004Japan 2000-2004
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Halley 1687-1691
Sweden 1754-1756
Switzerland 1876-1880
Japan 1950-1954
Japan 1980-1984
Japan 2000-2004
Fries (1980)
Increase in the modal length of life (M), Increase in the modal length of life (M), since 1751: a selection of 9 countriessince 1751: a selection of 9 countries
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1751
1761
1771
1781
1791
1801
1811
1821
1831
1841
1851
1861
1871
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
Denmark
England
France
Japan
Netherlands
Norway
Sweden
Switzerland
USA
sex women
Sum of Age
year
country
Longevity revolutionLongevity revolutionSwitzerland, 1878, 1930 Switzerland, 1878, 1930 and 1990and 1990
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
20 40 60 80 100 120
1876-80
1929-32
1988-93
Modal life span (M)
More than 32,000 centenenarians in Japon in 2007More than 32,000 centenenarians in Japon in 2007
Robine & Saito, 2003
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
24000
28000
32000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Total
Males
Females
28,518 Centenarians in Japan
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Males
Females
Total
20 000 centenarians in France in 2008
Life expectancy at birth, various countries, Life expectancy at birth, various countries, females – Human Mortality Database (HMD)females – Human Mortality Database (HMD)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Czech Republic
Denmark
Japan
Spain
USA
age 0 sex femme
Somme de LE
year
country
Health trends in Health trends in centenarianscentenarians
Interestingly, in Japan where the number of Interestingly, in Japan where the number of centenarians is increasing quickly, their health centenarians is increasing quickly, their health status seem to worsen as shown by the strong status seem to worsen as shown by the strong increase overtime in the prevalence of bedridden increase overtime in the prevalence of bedridden centenarians (Gondo, personal communication, centenarians (Gondo, personal communication, 2007) whereas in Denmark, where the increase 2007) whereas in Denmark, where the increase in the number of centenarians is very slow, in the number of centenarians is very slow, centenarians perform significantly better in 2005 centenarians perform significantly better in 2005 than their counterparts of 1995 (Engberg et al, than their counterparts of 1995 (Engberg et al, 2007).2007).
Thank you!
Société Suisse de Médecine Interne, Lausanne, May 21, Société Suisse de Médecine Interne, Lausanne, May 21, 20012001
Press Conference,Press Conference,
Grand âge : jusqu’où pouvons nous Grand âge : jusqu’où pouvons nous aller ? aller ?
Jean-Marie RobineJean-Marie Robine
Increase in life expectancy in SwitzerlandIncrease in life expectancy in Switzerland
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
SMe0
SMe60
SMe80
Extrapolation linéaire
Extrapolation linéaire
Extrapolation linéaire
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
SFe0
SFe60
SFe80
Extrapolation linéaire
Extrapolation linéaire
Extrapolation linéaire
Robine & Paccaud, 2005
LEXIS’S NORMAL LIFE DURATIONS
Lexis, 1878
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