smc global monthly report on base metals
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SPECIAL MONTHLY REPORT ONSPECIAL MONTHLY REPORT ON
Base MetalsBase Metals(July 2014)(July 2014)
2
BA
SE
ME
TA
LS
July 2014
BASE METALS (30th May 2014 - 30th June 2014) (% change)PERFORMANCE
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4.39
9.30
4.45
5.13
0.02
1.90
7.21
2.49
2.40
1.01
2.14
3.81
0.11
0.75
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
Copper
Zinc
Aluminium
Lead
Nickel
Source: Reuters & SMCSHFE LME MCX
BASE METALS (Jan 2014 - June 2014) (% change)PERFORMANCE
Source: Reuters & SMCSHFE LME MCX
-8.60
4.75
2.50
-5.00
32.28
-5.06
7.62
5.11
-2.03
36.55
-3.35
2.62
-4.19
-3.64
-20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00
Copper
Zinc
Aluminium
Lead
Nickel
3
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COPPER China May FDI falls by most in 16 months as
economy slows Copper prices traded on sideways with positive path
The amount of new foreign investment that China in the month of June 2014. Copper moved in range of
attracted in May shrank by the most in 16 months, 394-422 last month. U.S. consumer sentiment rose in
hurt partly by its cooling economy, though the trade June as consumers remained optimistic the sluggish
ministry said the outlook may be brightening for first quarter was due to difficult winter conditions.
exporters. The Ministry of Commerce said on that Euro zone economic sentiment fell unexpectedly in
China attracted $8.6 billion in foreign direct June on fears that fighting in Iraq would push up oil
investment (FDI) in May, down 6.7 percent from a prices and that any escalation of the Ukraine crisis
year ago and the weakest performance since January could drag on euro zone growth. On domestic bourses
2013. Cumulatively, China drew $49 billion of FDI in weaker local currency capped the downside to some
the first five months of 2014, up 2.8 percent from a extent. Supply short fall and encouraging data from
year earlier, also the worst showing in a year.US and China will continue to assist the prices in the
month of July 2014. The HSBC/Markit Flash China Copper output at Chile's Codelco drops slightly in first
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose Output at the world's No. 1 copper producer, Chile's more than expected to 50.8 in June from May's final Corporacion Nacional del Cobre, slipped slightly in reading of 49.4. Copper prices can trade in range the first quarter and its profit dived as metal prices fell of 405-445 in near term. Copper in LME is set for and ore grades deteriorated. Codelco, as the company the biggest quarterly rise since September as is commonly known, posted a 0.3 percent drop in stockpiles fell and amid bets that the U.S. economy copper production to 383,000 tonnes in the quarter, will rebound from a first quarter contraction. while its pretax profit fell 38 percent to $539 million.Inventories monitored by the main exchanges in
London, Shanghai and New York have plunged to the Newmont halts copper concentrate output at lowest since 2008. Copper seasonal demand is Indonesian mineexpected to wane going into the third quarter, though
Newmont Mining Corp has halted copper concentrate the shortage in supply is expected to keep a floor
production at its Batu Hijau mine in Indonesia as a under prices. Doubts remain that major copper
deadlock continues over controversial mining rules miners will accept a new mining export tax being
that have halted concentrate exports since mid-drafted by Indonesia that could potentially end a five
January.month old dispute that has halted concentrate
shipments and eroding mine supply.
China Copper imports
U.S. housing regaining footing as supply Copper imports from the world's top consumer fell
improves 15.6 percent from a month ago to 380,000 tonnes in
May. The figure includes anode, refined, alloy and U.S. home resales rose more than expected in May
semi-finished copper products. High spot copper and the stock of properties for sale was the highest in
prices on the London Metal Exchange had prompted more than 1-1/2 years, suggesting the housing sector
some end-users to delay buying spot metal in May. was pulling out of a recent slump. The National
Going forward, imports could fall in the coming Association of Realtors stated recently that existing
months as an investigation into possible fraud in home sales increased 4.9 percent to an annual rate of
metal financing in the port of Qingdao has led some 4.89 million units. May's increase was the largest
major banks to suspend new metal financing to some since August 2011.
Chinese customers.
July 2014
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July 2014
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Copper upside capped recently on port probe warranted in the LME network, data that would likely
add pressure to sliding prices. As much as 300,000 The end of the peak period for demand in top metals tonnes of copper, nearly twice the entire inventory consumer China and the prospect of additional held in the LME's global warehouses, could be supply weighed on copper prices. The probe at the released by September.Chinese port, where a third-party firm is suspected of
using single cargoes of metal multiple times to obtain
financing, has also shaken markets amid fears the Indonesia, Freeport make progress in copper problems could extend to other ports and force a export talkscrackdown on using metal as collateral for finance.
Indonesia and U.S. miner Freeport-McMoRan Concerns over the events in Qingdao may push
Copper & Gold Inc have agreed on the basic foreign banks to cut their commodity financing
framework for contract renegotiations for the world's business in China. The fear of fraudulent financing at
fifth-largest copper mine, a further step in efforts to some storage depots in Qing-dao port has prompted
resume copper exports. Indonesia's biggest copper some banks and merchants to cut credit for financing
producer and fellow miner Newmont Mining Corp deals or relocate metal to better-known warehousing
halted copper concentrate shipments in January firms, including some in South Korea and elsewhere
when the government introduced new mining rules, that are part of the LME's vast system. The shift away
including an escalating export tax that the two firms from China's opaque warehouses fueled concern
say violates their mining contracts.among traders of a potential rise in stockpiles
BHP, China smelter agree lower TC/RCs for
copper concentrate
At least one large Chinese copper smelter has agreed
with global miner BHP Billiton a 3.5 percent cut in
treatment and refining charges for term concen-trate
shipments in the second half of 2014, from January to
June shipments. The agreed treatment and refining
charges (TC/RC) are $95.5 per tonne and 9.55 cents
per pound for concentrate shipments between July
and December 2014.
In the month of July 2014 copper prices may
trade on sideways with positive path as
movement of various economic indicators
such as PMI data, homes sales and
employment data along with fed tapering and
Chinese demand will give further direction to
the copper prices.
Range
Copper
MCX: Rs 405-445 per kg
LME: $6900-7150 per tonne
5
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July 2014
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Source Kitco metals
6
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NICKEL up nearly 7%. According to INSG data, a significant
stock build has been recorded in 2012 and 2013. Nickel prices witnessed mixed movement in the
Reasons for the increase in stocks include the month of June as while Ukraine tensions supported
number of new nickel projects that have started up, the prices but prices profit booking at higher levels
existing projects that have ramped up production, capped the upside. Overall nickel traded in range of
including nickel pig iron production in China, and 1047-1159 in the month of June 2014. Nickel is
disappointing usage figures outside of China and getting support because of supply tightness from
India. INSG recognizes the significant impact of the Indonesia and concerns due Ukraine and Russia
current financial, economic and political tensions.
uncertainty in many parts of the world. The effects Nickel buyers in China and Japan are scrambling to of the above on both the supply and demand for secure supplies as roaring prices and a fear of nickel are not fully known though, said the group.shortages boost demand for both refined metal and
long-term ore contracts from stainless steel makers. New Caledonia allows conditional restart of Nickel prices can move in range of in the Vale nickel minemonth of 1060-1200 July 2014.
New Caledonia authorities have authorized a
conditional restart of Brazil-based Vale's nickel Global Primary Nickel Use To Increase
operations, which were suspended more than three Nearly 7% This Year
weeks ago after acid-tainted effluent spilled into a According to a latest update from the International river. Nickel Study Group (INSG), global Nickel usage
(consumption) will continue to increase this year, Nickel supplies steady in Europe, market although at a lower rate than in recent years, with deficit eyed next year China being the main growth market. The
implementation of the Indonesian export ban on Physical supply of nickel has stabilized in Europe as nickel ore which took effect in January 2014 is consumers slowed a burst of stockpiling triggered expected to reduce production in that country and by fears an Indonesian export ban would make ore could result in a further increase in nickel ore scarce, although the market is expected to swing exports from the Philippines. into deficit next year as inventories dwindle. A ban
on unprocessed ore exports from top producer A recovery in global economic growth, in particular Indonesia in mid-January sparked concerns of a in the US and Western Europe, has improved nickel shortage of the raw material, used in the production demand in early 2014 relative to the latter part of of stainless steel. Coinciding with the ore export ban 2013, and remains generally supportive in Asia. A were worries that hefty sanctions could be imposed possible reduction in nickel pig iron production in on Russia, home to the world's largest nickel miner China, due to the lower level of nickel ore imports Norilsk Nickel , following Russia's intervention in from Indonesia, could adversely affect worldwide Ukraine. So far Norilsk is not among the 17 nickel production despite the range of new nickel companies that the United States sanctioned last projects that will come on stream.month.
World primary nickel production was 1.75 Mt in
2012, and increased to 1.94 Mt in 2013. INSG
projects a largely unchanged production of around Ukraine and Russia tensions lifting prices 1.94 Mt in 2014. There is a degree of uncertainty in higherthese figures in regard to Chinese nickel pig iron
Tensions in Russia and Ukraine resulted in production, particularly in latter years. The sanctions on Russia by Ukraine which resulted in estimates do not include any general adjustment disruption of nickel supply as Russia is second factor for possible production disruptions.largest exporter of nickel in the world. Russia is
World primary nickel usage (consumption) was 1.75 home to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the leading Mt in 2012 and increased to 1.77 Mt in 2013. For producer of refined metal.2014 INSG estimates an increase to around 1.89 Mt,
July 2014
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EL
July 2014
In the month of July 2014 Nickel trend will
depend on the stainless steel sector demand
along with availability of Nickel ore.
Movement of local currency is likely to
influence its prices on domestic bourses.
Range
Nickel
MCX: Rs 1060-1200 per kg
LME: $18600-19800 per tonne
Source Kitco metals
8
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LEAD
Lead prices ended in green zone in the month of
June 2014.Overall its prices moved in range of
121.85-130.40 in MCX. Growing demand from
replacement battery sector and falling stockpiles are
expected to support the prices. But there are
concerns about Lead demand from top consumer
China as the country grapples with slow growth and
credit problems. Investors fear that credit upheaval
in China could unwind financing deals that use the
metal as collateral. Overall it can move in range
of 124-135 in the month of July 2014.
China's May HSBC services PMI rose in June
China's official purchasing managers index (PMI)
for June came in at a six-month high of 51, in line
with expectations and up from 50.8 in May.
Meanwhile, HSBC's final PMI reading for June rose
to 50.7, weaker than a preliminary reading of 50.8
but higher than May's 49.4 figure.
Global lead mine output
Global lead mine output, meanwhile, was 1.3%
higher during first four months of 2014 as compared
the corresponding period in 2013 due primarily to
increases in Australia, Mexico and the United States
that more than balanced reductions in Canada and
China. A reduction world refined lead output of 4%
was primarily a consequence of falls in production in
China and the United States. Similarly, a sharp drop
in Chinese apparent demand for refined lead metal
of 10.3% was the main influence on a reduction in
global demand of 4.6%. Usage in Europe increased
by 3.9% and in the United States, fell by 2.6%.
Chinese net imports of lead contained in lead
concentrates increased by 12% to total 270kt.
ILZSG forecast
Global demand for refined lead metal will increase by
4.4% in 2014 to 11.73 million tonnes. This will be
driven mainly by growth in China where usage is
forecast to increase by 7.4%. In 2013, China accounted
for 45.2% of total global lead usage.
Meanwhile, demand in the United States is forecast to
rise by a modest 0.6% after increasing by 14.1% in
2013. In Europe, a rise of 2.2% is anticipated driven
mainly by a forecast recovery in Italian demand.
On supply side- Global lead mine production is
expected to increase by a further 5.2% to 5.66 million
tonnes in 2014 following a rise of 7.5% in 2013,
primarily as a consequence of higher output in
Australia and China. Chinese net imports of lead
contained in lead concentrates are expected to exceed
three quarters of a million tonnes for the seventh year
in succession.
In 2014, world production of refined lead metal is
forecast to rise by 4.3% to 11.68 million tonnes. Output
in the Republic of Korea, currently the world's third
largest producer of lead metal behind China and the
United States, is expected to rise by 5.7% to reach half a
million tonnes. Elsewhere in Asia increases are
forecast in China, India and Kazakhstan. In the United
States, the closure of Doe Run's primary operation at
Herculaneum in December last year will be partially
offset by a rise in secondary output, however, overall
production is expected to decline by 5.3%. A predicted
increase in Europe of 4.4% is mainly a consequence of
forecast rises in production in Belgium, France and
Italy.
World Refined Lead Metal Balance- After having taken
into consideration the latest information reported by
its member countries, ILZSG expects that the world
market for refined lead metal will remain in modest
deficit in 2014 with the extent of the shortage
estimated at 49,000 tonnes.
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July 2014
9
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ZINC
Zinc prices traded with upside bias in June 2014 as
supply tightness and good demand supported its
prices. Overall zinc prices moved in range of
121.70-132.10 in MCX. Zinc has emerged as the
"poor man's copper" in terms of loan collateral in
China, partly because of its lower price and partly
because of the increasing regulatory scrutiny on the
copper collateral trade.
In the month of July renewed galvanizing demand
can give support to the prices but slow Chinese
growth concerns can cap the upside. Overall it can
move in range of 123-136 in the month of July 2014.
Strong demand for zinc coupled with the imminent
closure of several large mines is tipping the market
towards deficit and enticing producers to restart
mothballed operations.
Increase in China Zinc demand
Chinese zinc demand is seen growing by 8 percent
this year, the fastest since 2010, driven by auto sales.
It is expected to push the market into a deficit for the
first time in several years.
Zinc Hits 16-month high in June as
Inventories Fall
Zinc metal prices spurred sharply in June 2014 after
ILZSG data indicated that the zinc deficit is growing.
It stated that from January to March of this year, the
global zinc market recorded a deficit of 17000 tonne,
however, from January to April, the deficit came to
107000 tonne, a fairly steep increase. The
International Lead Zinc Study Group reported that
the zinc market technically went into deficit at the
end of 2013.
Zinc – a base metal that's been priced low for many
years – might be positioned for a sharp price rise,
thanks to a combination of rapidly rising vehicle
sales in emerging economies – along with
resurgence in automobile sales in the developed
world.
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Additionally, many large zinc mines from around the
world are closing, due to high costs and mineral
exhaustion. Some major mine closures include-The
major Brunswick and Perseverance Mines in Canada
last year, which are owned by Glencore PLC; the
Lisheen Mine in Ireland, owned by Vedanta Resources
PLC; and the Century Mine in Australia, owned by
China Minmetals, will cease production next year. All
of this is adding up to a massive zinc supply shortage.
Zinc production
Global zinc mine production was a marginal 0.4%
higher during first four months of 2014 as compared
the same period in 2013 with decreases in Canada,
Ireland and Peru almost balancing increases in China,
Mexico and the United States. A rise in world output of
refined zinc metal of 4.1% was primarily a consequence
of higher production in Belgium, China and India.
Increases in apparent demand of 12.4% in China and
23.8% in the Republic of Korea were the main drivers
behind an increase in the global usage of refined zinc
metal of 7.5%. Demand in Europe declined by 0.9%
and in the United States, rose by 2.8%. Chinese net
imports of refined zinc metal increased by 38.8% to
261kt.
ILSG Zinc forecast
International Lead and Zinc Study Group forecasted
anticipated that world usage of refined zinc metal will
increase by a further 4.5% to 13.58 million tonnes in
2014 after having risen by 4.9% in 2013.
Usage in China, which currently accounts for 44% of
total world zinc demand, is forecast to rise by 5.8%. In
Europe and the United States, increases of 3% and
1.7% respectively are anticipated. Elsewhere further
growth is forecast in India, the Republic of Korea and
Turkey, however, demand in Japan is expected to
remain at a similar level to that in 2013.
July 2014
10
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July 2014
On supply side- Global zinc mine production is
predicted to rise by 2.6% to 13.57 million tonnes in
2014. This is mainly a consequence of further
growth in Chinese output and increases in Australia
driven primarily by increases in production at
Glencore Xstrata's Mount Isa and McArthur River
operations and Perilya's Broken Hill mine. In Latin
America, expected increases in Mexico and Peru will
be partially offset by a reduction in Bolivia.
Similarly, in Europe, rises in Portugal and Sweden
will be largely balanced by a decrease in Ireland.
Chinese production of refined zinc metal is expected
to rise by 7.3% in 2014 after having remained
relatively stable for the past four years and this is the
main factor behind an anticipated overall increase in
global production of 4.4% to 13.46 million tonnes.
Production in the United States will be boosted by
the opening of Horsehead Holding's new solvent
extraction plant in North Carolina and is forecast to
increase by 10.4%. Rises in Belgium, Italy and
Norway are the principal drivers behind an expected
increase in European output of 3.6%.
Higher production is also anticipated in India, the
Republic of Korea, Mexico and Namibia, where
operations at Vedanta's Skorpion refinery were
adversely affected by an unscheduled maintenance
shutdown at the end of 2013.
World Refined Zinc Metal Balance- Overall, the
detailed information recently collected from the
Group's member countries indicates that, as in
2013, global demand for refined zinc metal will
exceed supply in 2014. It is anticipated that the size
of the deficit will be 117,000 tonnes.
Mine closures on the cards
Zinc mines, with an estimated 1.3MT of production,
are expected to get depleted over the next two-to-
three years, leading to a tight supply situation in the
refined zinc market
Mining companies are shutting down key zinc-
output facilities in Canada and Australia, because
reserves in those mines have largely been depleted.
Glencore Xstrata PLC's Brunswick and Perseverance
mines in eastern Canada, which had combined
capacity of 400,000 tons of zinc, closed in 2013. And
output from MMG Ltd. Century mine in Australia's
Queensland State is slowing as the world's third-
biggest open-pit zinc mine is slated for closure by 2016.
New mining projects for zinc aren't as large as those
that recently closed. Glencore officials have said they
expect its new Perkoa mine in Burkina Faso to produce
90,000 tons of zinc next year. Output at Hudbay
Minerals' Lalor Lake mine in Manitoba province,
Canada, is forecast at 40,000 tons in 2014.
Indian industry expansion plans dominate global
leadership position
Indian industry next phase expansion plans at a time of
closure of world biggest mines within 2-3 years
coupled with low cost positioning reinforcing them to
dominate the global leadership position going
forward.
Mining companies are shutting down key zinc-output
facilities in Canada and Australia, because reserves in
those mines have largely been depleted. Glencore
Xstrata and Perseverance mines in eastern Canada,
which produced a combined 335,000 tons of zinc in
2011, closed earlier this year. And output from MMG
Ltd. Century mine in Australia's Queensland State is
slowing as the world's third-biggest open-pit zinc mine
is slated for closure by 2016.
The Hindustan Zinc (HZL) has planned to increase the
Zawar mine capacity (zinc and lead) from the current
1.5 million tonne to about 5 million tonne in the
coming years and double the mined metal production
from Kayad mine from current 12 kt of mined metal on
ore production in FY2015E. Ore production from
Rajpura Dariba mine will be progressively increased to
1.2 mtpa. The increase in mined metal production will
boosts up higher volumes and also help in bringing
down the mining cost.
11
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July 2014
Range
Lead
MCX: Rs124-135 per kg
LME: $2060-2230 per tonne
Zinc
MCX: Rs 123-136 per kg
LME: $2100-2300 per tonne
Lead and Zinc spread
Source: Reuters
Analysis
Lead and Zinc spread dipped in June from nearly-1 to below -4 .This spread can move in range of -5 to 0 in July 2014.
In July 2014, Zinc and Lead prices will depend u p o n a u t o m o b i l e , c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d infrastructure demand. Moreover situation of cancelled warrants along with stock position will impact the prices.
12
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Source Kitco metals
July 2014
Source Kitco metals
13
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ALUMINUM Indonesian miners delay alumina refinery
plans on legal uncertaintyWhite metal Aluminum ended the month of June on
Bauxite producers are delaying plans to build positive path as rising premium and low bauxite
alumina refineries in Indonesia due to legal stockpiles supported the prices higher. Overall it
uncertainty over a mineral ore export ban imposed moved in range of 107.15-113.35. Dwindling
five months ago. Indonesia's Constitutional Court bauxite stockpiles in China could support the
has yet to decide on a legal challenge against a Jan. aluminium prices in near term.
12 export ban on bauxite, nickel and other mineral Aluminum prices can hover in range of 107-116 in
ores imposed by the government to force miners to the month of July 2014. According to Alcoa” Global
build refineries and processing plants. Before the demand for primary aluminium is set to rise 7
ban, Indonesian bauxite exports accounted for percent in 2014 on the back of solid growth in China
about 12 percent of global aluminium production, “Aluminum metal showed a decline in the inventory
with China taking the bulk of shipments for at LME and the cancelled warrant ratio improved
processing into alumina, an intermediate stage in suggesting the metal may remain higher.
the production of aluminium. As many as five
alumina refinery projects are underway in
Drop in Aluminum stocks—Rusal Plc Indonesia but the legal uncertainty means firms
have slowed their construction plans for the United Company Rusal Plc, one of the world's refineries, which can cost as much as $1 billion each.biggest aluminium producers stated that LME
aluminium stocks have dropped to the lowest levels
in 13 months. LME stocks have declined 5.5 percent China to phase out high-cost, outdated
so far this year, but are still at 5.15 million tonnes. aluminium capacity in 2-3 yrs
Rusal has previously forecast that the market is China will phase out its high cost and outdated
expected to have a market deficit of about 1.2 primary aluminium capacity within two to three
million tonnes this year and a further deficit of years, bringing total capacity to around 40 million
985,000 tonnes in 2015 due to strong demand and tonnes.
capacity cutbacks by producers. Rusal also sees the
declining LME cash-three month spread as
indicating tighter conditions that are supporting the Aluminium producers seek record
market. The contango - when nearby prices are premium of $405-410 from Japan buyers
weaker than forward ones has declined to $24 a Top aluminium producers have pushed up the
tonne from $45.50 a month ago.premiums proposed on primary metal for July-
September shipments to Japan to a record as
smelter shutdowns and financing deals have Qingdao port sealed Dagang bonded storage
squeezed supplies.area
Qingdao Port has sealed its Dagang bonded metal
storage area and suspended delivery of metals from Aluminium premiums poised for record
the section, as authorities investigate an alleged highs
fraud into financing of aluminium and alumina.European aluminium consumers are expected to
pay record amounts to get hold of physical metal in
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July 2014
14
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July 2014
the second half of 2014, as an improved economic record highs in February as smelter shutdowns and
backdrop triggers extra demand. Persistent financing deals that lock vast amounts of metal
appetite for financing deals and logjams in releasing away from the market choked supplies in the spot
aluminium from storage are also seen supporting market.
the outlook for premiums, as the LME battles to In July 2014 aluminum prices are expected push-through reforms aimed at freeing-up metal to trade on sideways with upside bias as stuck in queues at its warehouses. Aluminium demand from auto and construction sector premiums in Europe are already trading at around along with shortage of bauxite to give record high levels of $350-380 a tonne for duty- support to the prices.paid material. The premium, paid over the London
Metal Exchange (LME) cash price, covers the cost of
freight and insurance, and reflects regional demand
and supply. Aluminium premiums first shot to
Range
Aluminum
MCX: Rs 107-116 per kg
LME: $1850-1960 per tonne
15
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Some Key US Economic indicator charts
US Homes sales
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July 2014
Source: Reuters
Source: Reuters
US Personal consumption
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July 2014
Source: Reuters
US First quarter GDP
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Supportive team
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July 2014
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