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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Smart phone display market outlook 2016 November - Korea Display Conference
Brian Huh, Senior analyst of S&M display
Research, IHS Markit Technology
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Smart phone SET outlook
Entered phase of stagnation
2
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Q2’16 Smartphone market recorded 328M, negative growth of Y/Y. Entered phase of stagnation
3
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16
Million
of
un
it
Shipment Q/Q Y/Y
Smartphone set shipment trend
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
However, China OEMs continued to eat market share bit by bit.
4
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Samsung
Apple
Huawei
Oppo
BBK Vivo
Xiaomi
LG
ZTE
TCL-Alcatel
Lenovo
Smartphone set shipment trend by OEMs
No. OEM Q2'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q/Q Y/Y Rank
1 Samsung 73 79.4 77.5 -2% 6% -
2 Apple 47.5 51.2 40.4 -21% -15% -
3 Huawei 30.6 28.4 33.3 17% 9% -
4 Oppo 10.8 16.8 21.9 30% 103% -
5 Vivo 11.2 14.4 16.4 14% 46% 1 up
6 Xiaomi 19.7 14.8 15.2 3% -23% 1 down
7 LG 14.2 12.6 13.9 10% -2% -
8 ZTE 15.1 11.9 13.7 15% -9% -
9 TCL-Alcatel
10.1 7.8 7.4 -5% -27% -
10 Motorola 5.9 5.8 6.2 7% 5% -
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global Handset market is slowing down and the growth comes from emerging regions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million
of
un
it
$30-$90 $90-$150
$150-$250 $250-$400
$400+
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
N America L America
EMEA China
Rest of APAC
5
Smartphone set forecast by ASPs
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Smartphone DISPLAY outlook
AMOLED becoming the main stream !!
6
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Smartphone panel shipment trend: Japan Market seems to be stagnant, but continued to lead the LTPS LCD market.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2014 2015 2016(F)
Million
of
un
it
a-Si LCD LTPS LCD
Oxide LCD
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 1H'16
Apple Huawei Xiaomi
Sony LG Others
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 1H'16
Apple Huawei Sharp
Xiaomi ZTE Others
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Smartphone panel shipment trend: Korea Shipments continued to increased due to AMOLED.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2014 2015 2016(F)
Million
of
un
it
AMOLED a-Si LCD
LTPS LCD
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 1H'16
Samsung OPPO VIVO
Huawei Gionee Others
8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 1H'16
Apple LG Huawei
Xiaomi Microsoft Others
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Smartphone panel shipment trend: China Leading the market based on shipments, catch up high-end product rapidly.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2014 2015 2016(F)
Million
of
un
it
AMOLED CSTNMSTN a-Si LCDLTPS LCD Oxide LCD
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 1H'16
Samsung Huawei Xiaomi
VIVO Lenovo Others
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 1H'16
Huawei VIVO OPPO
Xiaomi Gionee Others
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Smartphone panel shipment trend: Taiwan Shipments continued to decreased, furthermore weak local set OEMs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2014 2015 2016(F)
Million
of
un
it
AMOLEDPMOLEDa-Si LCD
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 2016
Sony Huawei Xiaomi
Samsung HTC Others
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 2016Huawei Lenovo
Sony Microsoft
Black Berry Others
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
a-Si LCD ASPs rebounded to upward in Q2’16
3.2 3.15 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.28 3.6 3.7
4
4.8 4.85 5.4 4.05 4.03 4.08 4.1 4.1 4.08 4.2 4.3
4.6
5.4 5.5
6.4
7.8 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4
7.9 8.5 8.7
9
2
4
6
8
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16
US
D
Million
of
un
it
A-si shipment 4" WVGA TN 4.5" FWVGA TN 5" HD IPS
11
Remained panel supply tightness, trigger effect from TV, & IT, low profitability
44 42 40 39 36 36 36 37 38 39 42 44
63 59 56 53 52 52 53 55 57 60 70 75
115 107 100 94 89 89 90 90 91 94 103 115 40” FHD O.C
32” HD O.C
23.6” HD O.C
Taiwan earthquake 22% up
57% up
65% up
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Smartphone display shifted from a-Si to LTPS Requirement for multimedia push to increase demand for over FHD resolution, and small & old fab losing the competitiveness.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
00
0 m
2
AMOLED
LTPS/Oxide
a-Si
12
No Maker Location Tech Gen Capacity (K/M)
End
1 AUO Hsinchu L3C a-Si 3.25 45 Q2'17
2 AUO Lungtan L4A a-Si 3.5 60 Q3'17
3 AUO Linkou L5D a-Si 5 75 Q1'18
4 BOE Beijing B1 a-Si 5 45 Q4'17
5 CPT Taoyuan T2 a-Si 3.5 73 Q4'18
6 Innolux Tainan Fab1 a-Si 3.25 60 Q2'17
7 Innolux Tainan Fab2 a-Si 3.5 85 Q2'18
8 Innolux Tainan Fab3 a-Si 5 65 Q2'18
9 Innolux Jhunan T0 a-Si 4 20 Q1'18
10 Innolux Jhunan T1 a-Si 5 33 Q4'18
11 JDI Mobara V3 a-Si 4 58 Q4'16
12 LGD Kumi P2 a-Si 3.25 17 Q1'17
13 LGD Kumi P3 a-Si 3.5 92 Q1'17
14 LGD Kumi P4 a-Si 5 130 Q3'17
15 LGD Kumi P6 a-Si 6 60 Q4'17
16 SDC Chonan L6 a-Si 5 125 Q1'17
17 Sharp Taki No2C a-Si 3.5 45 Q3'18
18 Sharp Taki No2D a-Si 3.5 53 Q3'18
19 Truly Shanwei 1 a-Si 2 30 Q3'18
Fab closing plan (2016 ~ 18) Supply capacity forecast (≤Gen6)
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
A-Si LCDs in Gen 8
13
Panel makers considering a-Si LCDs in Gen 8 to compete LTPS LCD and AMOLED, and will be ready for MP in 2017
2200
2500
Gen 5
Gen 5 Gen 5
Touch controller LCD driver IC
TDDI
FPC
In-cell
• High PPI product for a-Si • High brightness • Better outdoor readability
• Slim thickness • Simple value chain • Cost down
TDDI
SPR (Sub Pixel Rendering)
RGBG M+ Pentile
Cuts/glass Gen 6 Gen 8
5” HD 330up 650~680up
5.5” HD 264up 550~580up
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
New LTPS LCD fabs will be released in 2017 Strong demand for FHD+, LCD panel makers invested LTPS fab, but decreasing demand for apple will impact the LTPS fab operation in 2017
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million
of
un
it
>600
500-600
400-500
300-400
>300
New LTPS LCD Fab
Maker Factory Gen panel Capacity (K/M)
MP Ramp
AUO Kunshan 6 LCD 25 Q4'16
BOE Ordos B6 5.5 LCD/AMOLED 30 Q1'17
CSOT Wuhan T3 6 LCD/AMOLED 15 Q2'17
Tianma Xiamen 2 6 LCD 15 Q4'16
JDI Hakusan
D3 6 LCD 25 Q4'16
LGD Kumi AP3 6 LCD/AMOLED 8 Q2'16
LTPS LCD shipment forecast
Area (KM2) 2016 vs 2018
Supply 38% up at least
demand 18% up at best
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
AMOLED shipment continued to increased, especially strong demand for mobile phone
15
2014 2015 2016
Others 0.0 0.0 0.0
Smart Watch 2.8 18.6 17.2
OLED TV 0.2 0.4 0.9
Near Eye 1.6 1.6 4.1
Mobile Phone 173.9 257.1 384.5
Mobile PC 4.3 5.3 3.6
DSC 1.5 0.7 0.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Million
of
un
it
AMOLED panels shipment trend by application
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Samsung increased AMOLED smartphone ratio remarkably to mid-end lineups
16
46%
46%
84%
0% 50% 100%
H1'14
H1'15
H1'16
AMOLED TFT-LCD
0% 50% 100%
Galaxy A series
Galaxy Ace
Galaxy Core
Galaxy E
Galaxy Grand
Galaxy J
Galaxy Note
Galaxy S
Others55%
36%
26%
Samsung mobile’s product strategy trend
Galaxy J series
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Cost simulation for LTPS LCD vs rigid AMOLED Cost of mobile AMOLEDs have recently reached parity with LCDs. Furthermore, AMOLED have more room to enhance cost reduction than LCDs.
64%
31%
6%
20%
9%
13%
14%
31%
7% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
5.0 LTPS LCD 5.0 AMOLED
Indirect
expense
Depreciation
personnel
Panel material
cost
Modue
material cost
17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16
5.0 LTPS LCD
(Gen 6)
5.0 AMOLED
(Gen 5.5)
Note: Utilization: 90% / Cuts: 330up@G6, 220@G5.5 / 5% cum yield gab
Cost comparison between LTPS LCD vs AMOLED
10% price gap
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Smartphone display market forecast by technology AMOLED demand is soaring and will surpass LTPS TFT LCD in 2018
1,468 1,548 1,606 1,713
1,818 1,876 1,929
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million
of
un
it
Shipment TFT LCD /LTPS (%) AMOLED share (%)
18
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APPLE’s new challenge, AMOLED iPhone in 2017.
19
Flexible AMOLED fab will be ready for MP from Q2’17, and one model is expected to adopt flexible AMOLED.
3.5” 4.0” 4.7”/5.5”” Flexible AMOLED
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1'0
8
Q2'0
8
Q3'0
8
Q4'0
8
Q1'0
9
Q2'0
9
Q3'0
9
Q4'0
9
Q1'1
0
Q2'1
0
Q3'1
0
Q4'1
0
Q1'1
1
Q2'1
1
Q3'1
1
Q4'1
1
Q1'1
2
Q2'1
2
Q3'1
2
Q4'1
2
Q1'1
3
Q2'1
3
Q3'1
3
Q4'1
3
Q1'1
4
Q2'1
4
Q3'1
4
Q4'1
4
Q1'1
5
Q2'1
5
Q3'1
5
Q4'1
5
Q1'1
6
Q2'1
6
Q3'1
6
Q4'1
6
Q1'1
7
Q2'1
7
Q3'1
7
Q4'1
7
Million
of
un
it
iPhone 3G
iPhone 6S/6SP
iPhone 6/6P
iPhone 4
iPhone 4S
iPhone 5S/5C
iPhone 3GS
iPhone 5
25M
25M
100M/Q ?? 25M
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Demand for AMOLED smartphone keep growing In 2020, AMOLED displays will reach 700M, flexible AMOLEDs market will surpass rigid AMOLED market.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Flexible Rigid
20
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AMOLED Smart phone Y/Y (%)
Apple
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OLED fab forecast: Korea
21
Huge and fastest investment than others. Strong customer base, leading technology.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
00
0 m
2
SDC
LGD
Likelihood>=30%
Maker Factory Gen Capacity (K/M)
LGD AP2-E2 G4 26
AP3-E5 G6 15
P10 G6 45
P9-E6 G6 45
SDC A3 G6 120
A4 G6 45
A1 G4 55
A2 G5.5 180
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OLED fab forecast: China
22
Fast following Korea panel makers, but need more time.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
00
0 m
2
Visionox
Truly
Tianma
EDO
China Star
BOE
Likelihood>=30%
Maker Factory Gen Capacity (K/M)
BOE B7 G6 45
B11 G6 45
China Star T4 G6 60
EDO Shanghai G4 22
Shanghai G6 30
Tianma Shanghai G5.5 6
Wuhan G6 30
Truly Huizhoi G4 15
Visionox Kunshan G5.5 15
Guan G6 30
How fast to catch up the technology
How fast to narrow the cost gap
How to catch up volume based business
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OLED fab forecast: Japan
23
More conservative, different stance of JDI and Sharp-Foxconn.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
00
0 m
2
Sony Semiconductor
SK Display
Sharp
JDI
Likelihood>=30%
Maker Factory Gen Capacity (K/M)
JDI Mobara G6 30 (??)
Sharp Sakai G6 30
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OLED fab forecast: Taiwan
24
No new OLED fab investment yet. Focusing on a-Si LCD ??
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
00
0 m
2
AUO
Likelihood>=30%
Maker Factory Gen Capacity (K/M)
AUO L4B G4 15
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OLED fab forecast: over all
25
Korea will keep leading market dominance, but have to consider over supply!!
119 166
243 294
379
541
792
1088
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
00
0 m
2
Korea
China
Japan
Taiwan
Q'ty estimation based on 5.5" (M)
Estimation: Likelihood>=30%, cum yield 75%, utilization 95%, glass efficiency 96%
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Galaxy note 7 effect
26
Samsung Display trying to minimize the impact on Note 7, but it will be a challenge to recover.
Aug. 2nd introduced
Aug.24th
1’st battery explosion
Sep.2nd
announced Recall
Sep.19th
started to replace to new note 7
Oct.10th Stop !
6
11 13
16
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16
Million
of
un
it
Flexible ??
Reduce inventory to others
Replace order to Galaxy S7 edge
Advance Galaxy S8 production
Develop new model
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