setting context, assessing trends, forecasting the future

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

Presentation for Visioning Day October 30th, 2009Office Of Institutional Research and Planning

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

For Planning purposes data can help you do three things

Set goals by identifying trends, problems, strengths, opportunitiesInform Strategies by understanding the cause of problems or logistical considerations Evaluate progress and make corrections

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

But data is just small part.

While data-jockeying is important it’s the syntheses, analysis, application and evaluation of data and information that is at the core of what we need to do.

External:

Demographic/workforce forecasts K-12 trends UC/CSU trends Public perceptions of Higher Education

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

Internal

Student Demographics Student Preparation Student Success and Learning

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

Shifting Forces

Workforce/Skills Gap Economy (short and long term) Funding and Legislation Sustainability Increased Diversity Globalism Changes in the Nature of Learning and the

Millennial generation

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future

External: Demographics Population Growth

Population

  2010 2019/2020Change from 2010

to 2020% Change from

2010 to 2020

  EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG

Local Area (for students): Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, Sunol 175,303 198,300 181,764 229,900 6,461 31,600 3.7% 15.9%

Alameda County 1,466,636 1,549,800 1,586,924 1,705,900 120,288 156,100 8.2% 10.1%

Regional Area (for jobs): Alameda, Countra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa Clara 5,090,282 5,272,100 5,590,953 5,813,500 500,671 541,400 9.8% 10.3%

State of California 37,696,392 n/a 42,854,241 n/a 5,157,849 n/a 13.7% n/a

EMSI: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.ABAG: Association of Bay Area Governments

External: DemographicsProjected Race/ Ethnicity Demographics Over Time by Area

4581

130,654

2,057,917 15,574,287

123,057

1,971,052 15,464,121

119,308

1,933,675 15,420,158

1407

43,053

1,158,020

13,394,509

47,655

1,213,358

15,303,908

53,500

1,367,920

17,406,928

8,257

371,094

2,239,8077,832

361,293

2,299,1017,767

364,054

2,374,1111347

29,210

1,286,206

4,535,81232,883

1,437,510

5,130,81936,927

1,612,525

5,783,6801263

7000 196619 1240644 7683 218677 1402884 8613 246828 1587523

424

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

LP

C

Cit

ies

Co

unti

es

Sta

te

Cit

ies

Co

unti

es

Sta

te

Cit

ies

Co

unti

es

Sta

te

2008 2013 2018

Other

Asian

Black orAfricanAmericanHispanic

White,Non-Hispanic

Source: EMSI data

External: Labor/Jobs Growth

Labor/Jobs

  2010 2019/2020Change from 2010 to 2020

% Change from 2010 to 2020

  EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG EMSI ABAG

Local Area (for students): Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, Sunol 152,829 105,970 164,735 133,400 11,906 27,430 7.8% 25.9%

Alameda County 888,167 712,850 965,567 825,070 77,400 112,220 8.7% 15.7%

Regional Area (for jobs): Alameda, Countra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa Clara

3,284,296 2,564,570 3,654,481 2,989,790 370,185 425,220

11.3% 16.6%

State of California20,696,4

99 n/a23,140,65

3 n/a2,444,1

54 n/a

11.8% n/a

EMSI: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc.

ABAG: Association of Bay Area Governments

External: Labor

4,423

1,021 879 878

476 402172 170 170 152

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Registerednurses ($49/hr)

Computersupport

specialists($27/hr)

Computerspecialists, allother ($39/hr)

Paralegals andlegal

assistants($29/hr)

Dentalhygienists

($49/hr)

Biologicaltechnicians

($21/hr)

Medicalrecords and

healthinformationtechnicians

($20/hr)

Interiordesigners($22/hr)

Veterinarytechnologists

andtechnicians

($19/hr)

Respiratorytherapists($36/hr)

Top 10 Occupations with Greatest Growth (by N) in Four-County Area: 2008 - 2018 Education: Associate Degree

Source: EMSI data

External: Labor

Top 10 Occupations with Greatest Growth (by N) in Four-County Area: 2008 - 2018 Education: Bachelor's Degree

7,2156,511

3,670

2,582 2,528 2,481 2,421 2,1711,361 1,305

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Property, realestate, andcommunityassociationmanagers($11/hr)

Computersoftware

engineers,applications

($48/hr)

Computersoftware

engineers,systems software

($51/hr)

Network systemsand data

communicationsanalysts ($36/hr)

Computersystems

analysts ($39/hr)

Businessoperation

specialists, allother ($34/hr)

Accountants andauditors ($29/hr)

Personal financialadvisors ($30/hr)

Network andcomputersystems

administrators($41/hr)

Elementaryschool teachers,except special

education($38/hr)

Source: EMSI data

External: k-12 trends

College Going rates Statewide it’s decreasing-locally it’s

higher Increased Gap between haves and have

nots (achievement Gap) Exit exam Increased ESL population Math:

Algebra in 8th grade

Concerns over Curriculum gap between high school and College Cal-Pass research shows students often

repeat course in college they already took in high school

This may partly explain why it seems that so many high school graduates are unprepared for college level work.

External: k-12 trends

External: k-12

College Going Rates Las Positas High School Districts

No Public College

33%

UC10%

CSU17%

CCC40%

Source: California Department of Education

External: k-12

Source of First-Time Freshman to Las Positas College

Other California High Schools,

24%

Other Alameda County High Schools, 3%

High Schools in Chabot District,

8%

Other Bay Area High Schools,

6%

Out of State High Schools, 4%

High Schools in Other Countries,

5%

High Schools in LPC District,

50%

Source: CLPCCD Institutional Data Base

Internal: Local High Schools

HS Grad YearLPC

SemesterNumber of

Grads*

Number New Enrollments at LPC Grad year the previous

Spring**

% of grads who attended LPC the Fall

after HS Graduation

Number of New Enrollments at

LPC of any Grad Year**

% of New LPC Students who graduated HS

any year

Number of All New Students

to LPC**

1996-1997 Fall 1997 1658 356 21% 494 44% 1112

1997-1998 Fall 1998 1714 391 23% 512 45% 1126

1998-1999 Fall 1999 1869 446 24% 551 49% 1131

1999-2000 Fall 2000 1804 576 32% 709 51% 1403

2000-2001 Fall 2001 1912 588 31% 707 51% 1385

2001-2002 Fall 2002 2048 655 32% 779 54% 1456

2002-2003 Fall 2003 1916 646 34% 785 53% 1470

2003-2004 Fall 2004 2200 698 32% 834 55% 1516

2004-2005 Fall 2005 2293 684 30% 811 52% 1556

2005-2006 Fall 2006 2380 645 27% 907 50% 1606

2006-2007 Fall 2007 2517 767 30% 911 51% 1769

2007-2008 Fall 2008 2637 763 29% 926 52% 1767

External: UC/CSU

Less capacity/budget cuts

More competition

Higher fees

External: Public Perception (Clarus Report)

Market Assessment Report (March 2007)

The name and existence of LPC is well known 55% of LPC service area would consider

attending LPC Considered convenient and affordable Generally well regarded but public lack specific

knowledge

External: Public Perception (Campus Commons Report)

Public Feel a college education is necessary and fear

that increasing costs make college out of reach

Support of high education is contingent on maintaining access

Growing sense that colleges are inefficient and can educate more students without needing more money

External: Summary

Demographic Continued growth and increased diversity

Workforce Increase in jobs outpace growth in population Healthcare, technology, business/finance Must anticipate areas of growth and be nimble

enough to quickly respond to needs

External: Summary

K-12 trends We draw students for all over…not just our local high

schools Almost half of local high school graduates attend LPC Must understand and respond to trends such as

achievement gap, differences curriculum and student preparation

Public Perceptions of Higher Education/LPC In general, growing sense that colleges are inefficient

and can educate more students without needing more money.

LPC is generally well regarded but public lack specific knowledge LPC

Internal: Demographics

Fall1999

Fall2000

Fall2001

Fall2002

Fall2003

Fall2004

Fall2005

Fall2006

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

18,28719,127

20,223

22,37620,710 20,951 20,847

23,182

25,418

27,360

29,235

6951 7413 7857 85887395 7325 7332 7796 8451

9100 9517

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000 LPC Headcounts and Enrollments Fall 1999-Fall 2009

Headcount

Enrollments

Internal: Demographics

38%

29%

32%

36%

29%

34%

32%

28%

35%

37%

27%

36%

34%

29%

36%

34%

28%

38%

31%

29%

39%

29%

26%

46%

27%

26%

47%

27%

26%

48%

26%

27%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fall1999

Fall2000

Fall2001

Fall2002

Fall2003

Fall2004

Fall2005

Fall2006

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

LPC Number of Units Fall 1999-Fall 2009

up to 5.5 Units

5.6-11.9 Units

12 or moreUnits

Internal: Demographics

LPC Age Distribution Fall 1999- Fall 2009

27% 27% 26% 28% 28% 30% 31% 31% 32% 31% 31%

23% 24% 23% 24% 27% 28% 27% 28% 29% 28% 31%

10% 10% 10% 9%9%

9% 10% 10% 9% 11% 9%16% 16% 16% 14%14% 12% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10%

12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9%

12% 12% 12% 13% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fall1999

Fall2000

Fall2001

Fall2002

Fall2003

Fall2004

Fall2005

Fall2006

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

50 or older

40-49

30-39

25-29

20-24

19 oryounger

Internal: Demographics

LPC Student Type Fall 1999-Fall 2009

16% 18% 17% 17% 19% 21% 21% 20% 21% 20% 21%

56% 52% 51% 52%56% 53% 54% 55% 56% 56% 57%

13% 21% 21% 21%19% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21% 20%11%

6% 5% 5%4% 4% 4% 2% 1% 2% 1%3% 4% 5% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fall1999

Fall2000

Fall2001

Fall2002

Fall2003

Fall2004

Fall2005

Fall2006

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Enrolled inK-12ReturningStudentTransfer-InStudentsContinuingStudentNewStudent

Internal: DemographicsLPC Educational Goal Fall 1999-Fall 2009

30% 32% 30% 30% 34% 34% 33% 35% 36% 39% 40%

10% 10% 10% 10%11% 12% 12%

13% 12%14% 13%10% 9% 9% 9%

9% 10% 9%8% 8%

7% 7%17% 17% 18% 16%15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

15% 16%9% 9% 10% 11%

9% 8% 9% 8% 8%6% 6%

24% 23% 23% 24% 22% 21% 22% 21% 21% 19% 18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fall1999

Fall2000

Fall2001

Fall2002

Fall2003

Fall2004

Fall2005

Fall2006

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

Goal undecided

Intellectual/cultural dev.

job related goal

Two year assocwithout transfr

BA withoutcompleting AA

BA aftercompleting AA

Internal: DemographicsLPC Race/Ethnicity Fall 1999-Fall 2009

10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 14% 16% 16% 17% 15%

70% 68% 66% 66% 64% 62% 59% 56% 54% 52% 53%

11% 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14% 15% 16% 16% 17%

6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4%3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Fall1999

Fall2000

Fall2001

Fall2002

Fall2003

Fall2004

Fall2005

Fall2006

Fall2007

Fall2008

Fall2009

AfricanAmerican

Asian

Hispanic

White

Otherunknown

Internal: Demographics

Growth in enrollment

Traditional college students (full-time, young, goal to transfer, never attended college)

Increasing racial/ethnic diversity (Asian and Hispanic populations)

Internal: Student Preparation

Las Positas English Assessment TrendsFall 1998-Fall 2008

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Pct.

Ass

essi

ng in

to

Each

Lev

el

College Level: Engl 1A

1 Below: Engl 101A/104

2 Below: Engl 116-Learning Skills

3 Below: Take ESL Test

Internal: Student Preparation

Las Positas Math Assessment TrendsFall 1998-Fall 2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

% A

sses

sing in

to E

ach L

evel

College Level: Trig or above

1 Below: Math 55/55A Int. Alg.

2 Below: Math 65/65A Elem. Alg.

3 Below: Math 107 Basic Skills

Internal: Student Preparation

Increase in number and proportion of students who require basic skills courses in English and Math (and study skills)

Simultaneous increase in students who have high education goals and expect academic rigor in preparation for transfer

Internal: Success and Leaning -Transfers Top Six Four-Year Colleges and Universities Transfers

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

UC Berkeley

UC Davis

CSU East Bay

CSU Sacramento

San Francisco State

San Jose State

Internal: Success and Learning-IncomeIncrease in Personal Income After Graduating from a CCC in 2000-01

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004CA Median Household Income CA Per Capita Income CCC Median Income

Source: ARCC Report www.cccco.edu

Internal: Student Success and Learning

Core Competencies Communication Critical Thinking Creativity and Aesthetics Respect and Responsibility Technology

Measured in a number of ways including in- class assessments and Student Self reports

Internal: Student Success and Learning

Greatest Self-Reported Gains Mean

Skills I can use in my current or future career 3.89

Discovering my own potential 3.84

Developing clear career goals 3.83

Writing Skills 3.79

Gathering information from multiple sources 3.79

Ability to learn on my own, pursue ideas and find info. 3.79

Performing to the best of my abilities 3.78

Understanding myself- abilities, interests, limitations 3.78

Critical thinking 3.75

Listening effectively 3.72

Applying knowledge to new situations to solve problems 3.72

Ability to set goals and develop strategies to reach them 3.721 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger

Internal: Student Success and Learning

Lowest Self-Reported Gains Mean

Awareness of my civic or community responsibilities 3.48

Appreciation for the arts and the role art plays in society 3.49

Using numerical data 3.49

Appreciation of my role in a democratic society 3.52

Overall technological literacy 3.54

Desire to contribute to my community/society 3.55

Ability to use computers effectively 3.56

Ability to meet challenges of a rapidly-changing society 3.58

Ability to read, interpret, and generate charts/graphs 3.59

Reading skills 3.59

Mathematical skills and abilities 3.60

1 = Much Weaker, 2= Weaker, 3 = No change, 4 = Stronger, 5 = Much Stronger

Student Demographics LPC has a large proportion of “traditional”

students (young, transfer directed, full-time)

Student Preparation High school students expect high quality

education for transfer and workforce training But also need remedial academic and leaning

skills support

Internal: Summary

Student Success and Learning Graduating from a CCC greatly increases

earnings. Student report greatest gains is a broad mix of

outcomes that range from academic to affective

As with highest gains, lowest gain is a broad mix of academic and affective outcomes. Many of the outcomes concerned with civic engagement and societal contribution are areas in which students report fewer gains.

Internal: Summary

Shifting Forces: Workforce Gap Gap of workers qualified and

experienced to replace baby boomers

Over supply of workers for the number of low skilled jobs

Both a demographic and educational trend

Shifting Forces: Economy- Short Term

o Slow recovery

o Lag in creation of jobs (Latest UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts double- digit unemployment until end of 2011)

Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term

Recovery vs. Reset

Breaking the law: Okun’s law

Growth alone wont save us because the “lost” jobs are not coming back

Long term and profound changes in Home ownership, consumer spending/saving,

availability of credit, investment, business start-ups (which are the first source of new jobs)

Shifting Forces: Economy- Long Term

Recovery vs. Reset

Different types of jobs/skills Longer term training for higher skills jobs Need to shift away from quick in and out training

programs Not so much a “labor” gap; more of a skills gap

Shifting Forces: Funding/Legislation

Decreased funding*

Unreliable funding unless major changes to constitution Term limits 2/3 budget Redistricting

Unfunded mandates

Shifting Forces: Increased Accountability

WASC (Western Association of Schools and Colleges)

ARCC (Accountability Reporting for Community Colleges)

Increased public scrutiny/sophistication and questioning

Less focus on process and more focus on outcomes and results

Shifting Forces: Sustainability

•Three Bottom Lines

EnvironmentEnvironment

EconomyEconomy Equity /Equity /CommunityCommunity

Practices/ Operation

s-drinking fountains

-recycling

-building design

-solar electric

Education

-certificates

-degrees

-transfer programs

-Infuse sustainable ideas into curriculum

Processes/ Human

Resources-sustainable processes

-hiring the proper

number of support staff

-Prioritizing initiatives

Shifting Forces: Sustainability

Shifting Forces: Increased Diversity

oGetting Beyond “Quotas” thinking

oGetting beyond “meeting the needs of diverse populations”

oTransforming who we are and what we do

oEssential workplace/life skill for ourselves and our students

Shifting Forces: Globalism

Increased competition Increased need for ability to

understand different perspectives Delivery methods Ability to adapt, change and

learning on own

Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning

Traditional Instructor

provides Information

Student responsible for mastery

Millenial Students have access

to information

Students expect instructor to help them master the information

Instructor as source of information

Instructor as learning coach

Shifting Forces: Nature of Learning

Instructor is valued as source of

information

Instructor valued as

learning coach

What would this mean for professional development, delivery methods, curriculum, pedagogy, classroom management?

Data isn’t about what you know...its about how you make sense of it…how you apply it.

While important, data is the least interesting part. Analysis, synthesis, evaluation is how the dots get connected.

Setting Context, Assessing Trends, Forecasting the Future