secondary mortgage markets the agencies
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Secondary Mortgage MarketsThe Agencies
Institutions
Ginnie Mae: Government National Mortgage Association Fannie Mae: Federal National Mortgage Association Freddie Mac: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
Ginnie Mae is a government owned mortgage association within the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are privately owned, Federally chartered institutions. They are collectively knows as Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs).
Secondary Mortgage Markets The Agencies
Institutions The National Housing Act of 1934 (and subsequent amendments)
Created the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Title II of the Act provides insurance for home loans Title III of the Act chartered mortgage associations that buy and sell insured
FHA (and later) Veterans Administration (VA) loans The Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) was created in 1938 In 1968, FNMA was separated into two entities:
1. The Government National Mortgage Assocation (GNMA),Ginnie Mae
2. The Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA), Fannie Mae
Secondary Mortgage Markets The Agencies
Ginnie Mae www.ginniemae.gov
Guarantees pools of FHA/VA mortgages issued by private lenders
Unconditionally guarantees GNMA investors timely payment of interest
and principal First GNMA MBS issued in Dallas in 1970, retired in 2000 Reached $2 trillion of cumulative issuance in mortgage backed securities
(MBS) on 11/20/2002 Has provided financing for over 27 million households in the US since
its creation in 1968 GNMA obligations are backed by the full faith and credit of the US
Secondary Mortgage Markets The Agencies
Fannie Mae www.fanniemae.com
Chartered by Congress in 1938 to provide a secondary market for
FHA/VA mortgages Partitioned into a separate, privately owned, federally chartered, mortgage
association in 1968, went public in 1970; recently had problems with financial statements (accounting for interest rate hedges using derivatives).
Authorized to purchase conventional (privately insured) mortgages in
1970 Traded on NYSE as FNM and is part of SNP 500. Has provided housing finance for over 58 million US households since
1968.
Secondary Mortgage Markets The Agencies
Freddie Mac www.freddiemac.com
Chartered by Congress in 1970 by the Federal Home Loan Mortgage
Corporation Act (the "Freddie Mac Act") to develop a conventional secondary market; traded on NYSE as FRE.
Buys conventional, graduated payment, and adjustable rate (privately
insured, conforming) mortgages and sells mortgage backed securities Optional Delivery Program: Freddie agrees in advance to purchase a
specified dollar amount of loans at a specified yield. Introduced SWAP Program in 1981: Freddie buys mortgages and
simultaneously sells securities backed by the same mortgages (MBSs more liquid)
Introduced Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) in 1983: CMOs
are structured mortgage backed bonds that create different pay classes, or tranches.
Secondary Mortgage Markets The Agencies
Freddie Mac www.freddiemac.com
Freddie Mac's statutory purposes are:
To provide stability in the secondary market for residential mortgages To respond appropriately to the private capital market To provide ongoing assistance to the secondary market for residential markets
(including mortgages on housing for low- and moderate-income families involving a reasonable economic return that may be less than the return earned on other activities)
To promote access to mortgage credit throughout the United States (including
central cities, rural areas and underserved areas) by increasing the liquidity of mortgage investments and improving the distribution of investment capital available for residential mortgage financing.
Secondary Mortgage Markets Non-Agencies
Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac (The Agencies) concentrate their mortgage packaging activity on conforming, "A" borrower credit rated, owner-occupied, 1-to-4 family property mortgages.
The private sector issues MBSs for "non-conforming" loans
A mortgage can be non-conforming for a variety of reasons:
1. Jumbo loans: loan amounts above the conforming loan limit (currently $417,000 in most states)
2. Investor loans: 1-to-4 family property mortgages for non-owner-occupied homes; single-family properties held for investment
3. Inadequate documentation (e.g. self-employed)
4. Subprime: "B" and "C" rated borrowers (FICO < 620)
5. Home equity loans
6. Second mortgages
7. Manufactured housing mortgages
Secondary Mortgage Markets Non-Agencies
Major Issuers Jumbo Loans: Countrywide, Norwest, Residential Funding Corporation,
GE Capital, Chase and Citicorp Mfg. Investor Loans (and limited documentation mortgages): Indy Mac,
Norwest and Residential Accredit Loans, Inc. Subprime Loans: Residential Assets Securities Corporation, Option One,
Long Beach Home Equity Loans: EquiCredit, Advanta, United Companies Financial
Corporation, Money Store, ContiMortgage, Green Tree Manufactured Housing: Green Tree, GreenPoint, Associates First,
Vanderbilt, Oakwood Source: Salomon Smith Barney
US Housing MarketStylized Facts
• In 2006:2, the market value of the stock of owner-occupied homes in the US was $20.3T
• On 11/9/2006, the market capitalization of the NYSE was $19.6T
Secondary Mortgage Markets Stylized Facts
A Statistical Summary of Housing and Mortgage Finance Activities
By
Fannie Mae
2007
Source: www.fanniemae.com
Secondary Mortgage Markets Stylized Facts
The US National Debt: Marketable and Intragovernmental
Residential Mortgage Debt Outstanding by Property Type
Residential Mortgage Total Credit Risk
Residential Mortgage Credit Risk: Credit Guarantee
Residential Mortgage Credit Risk: Whole Loans
Secondary Market Activity
Agency Activity
US National Debt: 1990-2006
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
Year
Bill
ion
s o
f U
SD
US National Debt
US Intragov't Debt
Total US Govt Debt
Residential Mortgage
Residential Mortgage Debt: 1990-2006
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
Year
Bil
lio
ns
of
US
D
Residential Mortgage
Single Family
Multifamily
Residential Mortgage Credit Risk: 1990-2006
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
Year
Bill
ion
s o
f U
SD
Total Residential Debt
Guarantee
Whole Loan
Residential Mortgage Credit Risk: Guarantees
0.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
6,000.0
7,000.0
Year
Bill
ion
s o
f U
SD
Total
Fannie
Freddie
Ginnie
Private
Residential Mortgage Credit Risk: Whole Loans
0.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
6,000.0
Year
Bil
lio
ns
of
US
D Total
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
Commercial Banks
Savings Institutions
Others
Secondary Market Activity: 1990-2006
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
Year
Bill
ions
of U
SD
Agency MBSPrivate MBS
Agency Secondary Market Activity:1990-2007
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
Year
Bill
ion
s o
f U
SD Total
Fannie
Freddie
GNMA
Secondary Mortgage Markets The Current Debate
Government Bestowed GSE Benefits
GSEs can borrow directly from the US Treasury (though they don't) Capital markets trade GSE debt as if it is guaranteed by the US govt
(it isn’t) GSEs are exempt from state and local taxes (and other regulations)
effectively lowering GSEs operating costs GSE MBS issues exempt from SEC registration and disclosure
requirements (and consequently avoid registration fees) The Uniform Securities Disclosure Act (H.R. 4071), introduced on
March 20, 2002, would repeal Fannie's and Freddie's exemptions from SEC's registration and disclosure requirements.
Capital Held by the GSEs and Ten Largest U.S. Financial Institutions
CompanyAssets
(Millions)
Stockholder's Equity
(Millions)Equity to Assets
Citigroup Inc. $1,097,190 $86,718 7.90%Fannie Mae $887,515 $16,288 1.80%FHLB System $763,631 $36,324 4.80%JP Morgan Chase $758,800 $42,306 5.60%Freddie Mac $752,249 $31,330 4.20%Bank of America $660,458 $50,319 7.60%Wells Fargo $349,259 $30,358 8.70%Wachovia $341,839 $32,078 9.40%Bank One $277,383 $22,440 8.10%Washington Mutual $268,298 $20,134 7.50%FleetBoston $190,453 $16,833 8.80%US Bancorp $180,027 $18,101 10.10%American Express $157,253 $13,861 8.80%Average--All 7.20%Average--GSEs 3.60%Average--non-GSEs 8.20%
Source: Privatizing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FederalHome Loan Banks--Why and How, by Wallison, Stanton, and ElyThe AEI Press, 2004.
Secondary Mortgage Markets The Current Debate
The GSE Response
GSEs lower the cost of homeownership by reducing interest rates Proof: 25-40bp spread between jumbo and conforming loan
rates Secondary mortgage market economics require a few large
institutions to take advantage of economies of scale, diversify risk, etc.
HUD mandated GSE housing goals have increased low-income
homeownership Low equity loan programs have made homeownership more
accessible
Secondary Mortgage MarketsMortgage Backed Securities
Pass-through securities: investors receive a pro-rata share of the
interest (net of guarantee and servicing fees) and principal on the underlying mortgages
1. Standard: P & I passed through monthly 2. Modified: P & I passed through quarterly, semi-annually,
annually
Mortgage-backed bonds: principal repaid from mortgages deposited in a sinking fund and repaid to investors in predetermined amounts; interest obligations paid without regard to interest repaid on mortgages
Mortgage pay-through bonds: a hybrid security containing elements of
pass-throughs and mortgage-backed bonds. Like a pass-through, these bonds pass-through principal paid on the underlying mortgages. Like a bond, these securities are debt obligations of the issuer, who pays interest based on the bond's coupon and who retains ownership of the mortgage pool.
Secondary Mortgage MarketsMortgage Backed Securities
Single Class: mortgage loans are packaged into a security where each
investor receives a pro-rata share of all principal (scheduled amortization and unscheduled prepayments) and interest (net of guarantee and servicer fees) paid by the underlying mortgages.
Multiple Class: a mortgage-backed security with different pay classes.
Each pay class, or tranche, is separately tradeable.
Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits (REMICs) and Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs) create pay classes with different speeds of principal repayment. The fastest pay class receives coupon interest plus all repaid principal. Most other pay classes receive only coupon interest while the fastest pay class receives all the principal repayment. These MBSs frequently have a zero-coupon tranche.
Stripped Mortgage Backed Security (SMBS): have pay classes that
separate interest cash flows (IO) from principal cash flows (PO).
Secondary Mortgage Markets
GNMA Mortgage Backed Securities
GNMA I
Modified pass throughs
Based on single-issuer pools
Minimum pool $1 million
Minimum certificate $25,000
Underlying mortgages have same (or similar) contract interest rates
GNMA I Coupon 50 basis points less than mortgage interest rate
1. 6 basis points for GNMAs unconditional guarantee of timely payment of interest and principal
2. 44 basis points for servicer
Secondary Mortgage Markets
GNMA Mortgage Backed Securities
GNMA II
Introduced in 1983
MBS coupon rate 50-150 bp below mortgage interest rate
Permits multiple issuers
Permits adjustable rate mortgages
Pays investors on 20th of each month
As of March 20, 2002, all Ginnie Mae Securities settled through the Federal Reserve
Ginnie Mae I MBS Ginnie Mae II MBS Issuer Ginnie Mae approved mortgage lender (single
issuers) Ginnie Mae approved mortgage lender (single or multiple issuers)
Underlying Mortgages Government insured or guaranteed loans (FHA, VA, RHS)
Government insured or guaranteed loans (FHA, VA, RHS)
Pool Types Single-Family Level Payment Mortgage Single-Family Graduated Payment Mortgage Single-Family Growing Equity Mortgage Single-Family Buydown Mortgage Manufactured Housing Serial Notes Multifamily Construction Loan Multifamily Project Loan
Single-Family Level Payment Mortgage Single Family Graduated Rate Mortgage Single-Family Growing Equity Mortgage Single-Family Adjustable Rate Mortgage Manufactured Housing
Interest Rate on Underlying Mortgages
All mortgages in a pool have the same interest rate (except manufactured housing pools)
Mortgages in a pool may have interest rates that vary within a one percent range (except manufactured housing pools)
Guaranty Timely payment of principal and interest Timely payment of principal and interest Guarantor Ginnie Mae (full faith and credit of United
States) Ginnie Mae (full faith and credit of United States)
Principal and Interest Paid monthly to securities holders Paid monthly to securities holders Payment Date 15th of the month 20th of the month Record Date Final day of the month before payment Final day of the month before payment Maturity Maximum 30 years for single-family, 40 years
for multifamily Maximum 30 years
Minimum Certificate Size
$25,000; $1 Increments $25,000; $1 increments
Minimum Pool Size $1,000,000 (single-family); $250,000 (multifamily)
$250,000 to $1,000,000 depending on pool type
Source: http://www.ginniemae.gov/mbs/features.asp?Section=MBSecurities
Secondary Mortgage Markets
Fannie Mae Mortgage Backed Securities
Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates. The mortgages are held in Trust on behalf of Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae guarantees timely payment of principal and interest; this
guarantee IS NOT BACKED BY THE FULL FAITH AND CREDIT OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT.
Minimum certificate $1,000. Makes distributions to certificate holders on the 25th of each month.
Secondary Mortgage Markets
Freddie Mac Mortgage Backed Securities
Mortgage Participation Certificates (PCs): single-class securities, guaranteed by Freddie Mac, that represent undivided interests in pools of residential (one- to four-family) mortgages.
Gold PC: represents an interest in a PC Pool consisting of
fixed-rate, level payment, fully amortizing mortgages, or fixed-rate balloon mortgages.
ARM PC: represents an interest in a PC Pool consisting of
adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs).
Secondary Mortgage Markets
Freddie Mac Mortgage Backed Securities
Pass-Through Certificates: beneficial ownership interests in pass-through pools, which are pools of assets formed by Freddie Mac.
Giant Certificates: single-class securities that receive principal and interest
from their underlying assets; coupon rates may be fixed or variable.
Giant PCs: Giant Certificates whose underlying assets are Freddie Mac PCs or other Giant PCs
Giant Securities: Giant Certificates whose underlying assets are GNMA
Certificates or other Giant Certificates
Secondary Mortgage Markets
Freddie Mac Mortgage Backed Securities Striped Giant Certificates: consist of two or more classes that receive
principal only, interest only or both principal and interest from the underlying asset. Each series is backed by a single Giant Certificate
Modifiable and Combinable Securities (MACS): Striped Giant Securities
are issued in series consisting of one interest only class, one principal only class, and multiple classes that receive both principal and interest with different class coupons, ranging from deep discount to high premium coupons.
Structured Pass-Through Certificates (SPCs): are issued in series
consisting of one or more classes. Each class receives payment from one or more assets. The assets are usually REMIC classes issued by Freddie Mac or another party.
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Introduction o Review corporate bond pricing o Does prepayment matter?
Composition of MBS Pools o Rates: fixed, floating, GPM o Terms: maturity, adjustment periods, graduation rates o Number and size of mortgages o Spatial distribution of mortgage
Examples o GNMA consisting of 20 $50,000 FHA mortgages o GNMA consisting of two pools of 10 loans each; each pool
with its own contract rate Prepayment
o Why do borrowers prepay? o Some definitions o Models of prepayment
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Introduction
With three exceptions, MBS are priced just like corporate bonds. How are corporate bonds priced? Valuation Model: PV of expected future cash flows discounted at the market rate. What cash flows? Coupon interest Par value Yield to maturity: the IRR earned on a bond held to maturity.
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Example
$10,000 par value; 10% coupon rate; 20 years to maturity; semiannual payments
Semi-Annual Coupon payment: (0.10/2)x$10,000 = $500
st
2d
1
000,10$
2d
1
1$500 Value Bond
s
1t
Discount Bond Yields Rate Value If prepaid at the end of: Year 1 Year 5 10% $10,000.00 10.00% 10.00% 9% 10,920.08 0.75% 7.75% 11% 9,197.69 19.20% 12.19%
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Exceptions
MBS pass through principal (as well as interest) Underlying mortgages in the pool may not have the same rate,
terms, etc…
MBSs offer little (no?) call protection: prepayment of underlying (single-family) mortgages usually permitted at any time, without prepayment penalty
So, how do you price MBS?
o Expected cash flows? o Discount rate?
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Example 1
$ 1M GNMA consisting of 20 $50,000 FHA mortgages, each with
o 10% contract rate
o 30 year term with monthly payments
Coupon on GNMA is 9.5%; of the other 50bp
o 6bp goes to GNMA for unconditional guarantee of timely payment of interest and principal
o 44bp goes to servicer for receiving payment and making distributions
Cash flows for the first 12 mos. with no prepayments:
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
MBS Amount $1,000,000.00Loan Term in Years 30 MonthlyContract Rate 10.00% Payment = $8,775.72
Cash flows for first 12 months; NO PREPAYMENTS
Month Beginning Total Servicer GNMA Total Interest to Amort. Investors'Balance Interest Fee Fee Fees Investors Receipts
@ 44bp @ 6bp @ 50bp 1 $1,000,000.00 $8,333.33 $366.67 $50.00 $416.67 $7,916.66 $442.39 $8,359.052 $999,557.61 $8,329.65 $366.50 $49.98 $416.48 $7,913.17 $446.07 $8,359.243 $999,111.54 $8,325.93 $366.34 $49.96 $416.30 $7,909.63 $449.79 $8,359.424 $998,661.75 $8,322.18 $366.18 $49.93 $416.11 $7,906.07 $453.54 $8,359.615 $998,208.21 $8,318.40 $366.01 $49.91 $415.92 $7,902.48 $457.32 $8,359.806 $997,750.89 $8,314.59 $365.84 $49.89 $415.73 $7,898.86 $461.13 $8,359.997 $997,289.76 $8,310.75 $365.67 $49.86 $415.53 $7,895.22 $464.97 $8,360.198 $996,824.79 $8,306.87 $365.50 $49.84 $415.34 $7,891.53 $468.85 $8,360.389 $996,355.94 $8,302.97 $365.33 $49.82 $415.15 $7,887.82 $472.75 $8,360.57
10 $995,883.19 $8,299.03 $365.16 $49.79 $414.95 $7,884.08 $476.69 $8,360.7711 $995,406.50 $8,295.05 $364.98 $49.77 $414.75 $7,880.30 $480.67 $8,360.9712 $994,925.83 $8,291.05 $364.81 $49.75 $414.56 $7,876.49 $484.67 $8,361.16
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Prepayment
Why Do Homeowners Prepay their Mortgages?
1. Financial incentives: market rate < contract rate 2. Relocation: change jobs
3. Change in housing consumption
a. Want larger house b. Want smaller house c. Change location (suburbs to city or vice versa)
4. Disaster losses: property destroyed 5. Mortgage default
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Some Definitions
Pool Factor: the ratio of the remaining principal balance of a pool to the original principal amount of the entire pool.
Mortgage Balance (of a pass through): the ratio of the remaining
principal balance to the original loan amounts of the outstanding mortgages.
Unconditional Probability of Prepayment (in period t): the ratio of
the number of mortgages that prepay in period t to the number of mortgages originally in the pool.
Conditional Probability of Prepayment (in period t): the ratio of the
number of mortgages that prepay in period t to the number of mortgage in the pool at the beginning of the period.
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Some Definitions
Weighted Average Rate: the average mortgage interest rate, weighted by the outstanding principal balances of the outstanding mortgages.
Weighted Average Maturity: the average loan maturity, weighted by the outstanding principal balances of the outstanding mortgages.
Weighted Average Life: the average amount of time that a dollar of principal is expected to be outstanding; the weighted average time to repayment of all principal payouts using the principal repayments as weights.
Half Life: the amount of time until one-half of the principal is repaid.
Duration: the average amount of time that a dollar of cash flow is expected to be outstanding; the weighted average of the payment periods using the PV of the total CFs as weights.
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Example 2
A GNMA pool contains 20, 30-year, $50,000 mortgages, each with a 10% fixed mortgage interest rate. Assuming annual payments on the underlying mortgages (to minimize the number of computations), compute the expected cash flows (e.g. fees, investors’ distributions), pool factor, prepayment probabilities, and the various measures of life (WAL, half life, and duration) for the MBS. Assume the loans prepay at the frequencies provided below and that all prepayments occur at the end of the year: Year # Prepaid Year # Prepaid Year # Prepaid 1 2 4 2 7 2 2 4 5 1 8 2 3 3 6 1 9 3
Ginnie Mae Pool: $1,000,000 MBS Discount 9.50% Rate = 20 $50,000 FHA mortgages @ 10.0% for 30 years Year Number of Number of Principal Repayments Total Mortgages Mortgages Principal Prepaid Outstanding Amortization Prepayment
1 2 18 $6,079.25 $99,392.08 $105,471.32 2 4 14 $6,018.46 $197,446.72 $203,465.17 3 3 11 $5,149.12 $146,981.65 $152,130.78 4 2 9 $4,450.31 $97,178.62 $101,628.93 5 1 8 $4,005.28 $48,144.28 $52,149.56 6 1 7 $3,916.28 $47,654.74 $51,571.02 7 2 5 $3,769.42 $94,232.51 $98,001.93 8 2 3 $2,961.68 $93,047.84 $96,009.52 9 3 0 $1,954.71 $137,617.05 $139,571.76
Year Investors' Total Principal Average Year x Interest Distribution Repaid Life Avg. Life To Date Weight Weight
1 $95,000.00 $200,471.32 $105,471.32 0.105471 0.105471 2 $84,980.22 $288,445.40 $308,936.49 0.203465 0.406930 3 $65,651.03 $217,781.81 $461,067.27 0.152131 0.456392 4 $51,198.61 $152,827.54 $562,696.21 0.101629 0.406516 5 $41,543.86 $93,693.42 $614,845.77 0.052150 0.260748 6 $36,589.65 $88,160.67 $666,416.79 0.051571 0.309426 7 $31,690.41 $129,692.33 $764,418.72 0.098002 0.686014 8 $22,380.22 $118,389.75 $860,428.24 0.096010 0.768076 9 $13,259.32 $152,831.08 $1,000,000.00 0.139572 1.256146
1.000000 4.655719
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Year PV of Cumulative Duration Year x Distribution PV of Weight Duration Distribution Weight
1 $183,078.83 $183,078.83 0.183079 0.183079 2 $240,566.62 $423,645.46 0.240567 0.481133 3 $165,874.35 $589,519.81 0.165874 0.497623 4 $106,302.91 $695,822.72 0.106303 0.425212 5 $59,516.65 $755,339.38 0.059517 0.297583 6 $51,143.47 $806,482.84 0.051143 0.306861 7 $68,709.29 $875,192.14 0.068709 0.480965 8 $57,279.75 $932,471.89 0.057280 0.458238 9 $67,528.11 $1,000,000.00 0.067528 0.607753
1.000000 3.738447
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
MBS Life Calculations
WAL = 0.105471 x 1 + 0.203465 x 2 + 0.152131 x 3 + ….. = 0.105741 + 0.406930 + 0.456392 = 4.66 years Half life: when is ½ of the beginning principal repaid? = 3 + (500,000 – 461,067)/(562,696 – 461,067) = 3 + 0.3831 = 3.38 years Duration = 0.1831 x 1 + 0.2406 x 2 + 0.1659 x 3 = 0.1831 + 0.4811 + 0.4976 + ….. = 3.74 years
Year Number of Number of Original Value Book Value
Mortgages Mortgages of
Outstanding of
Outstanding Prepaid Outstanding Mortgages Mortgages
1 2 18 $900,000 $894,529 2 4 14 $700,000 $691,064 3 3 11 $550,000 $538,933 4 2 9 $450,000 $437,304 5 1 8 $400,000 $385,154 6 1 7 $350,000 $333,583 7 2 5 $250,000 $235,581 8 2 3 $150,000 $139,572 9 3 0 $0 $0
Pool Mortgage Probability of Prepayment
Year Factor Balance Unconditional Conditional 1 0.894529 0.993921 0.100000 0.100000 2 0.691064 0.987234 0.200000 0.222222 3 0.538933 0.979878 0.150000 0.214286 4 0.437304 0.971786 0.100000 0.181818 5 0.385154 0.962886 0.050000 0.111111 6 0.333583 0.953095 0.050000 0.125000 7 0.235581 0.942325 0.100000 0.285714 8 0.139572 0.930478 0.100000 0.400000 9 0.000000 0.000000 0.150000 1.000000
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Year Beginning Pool Servicing Ginnie Mae Total Balance Fees Fees Fees
1 $1,000,000 $4,400.00 $600.00 $5,000.00 2 $894,529 $3,935.93 $536.72 $4,472.64 3 $691,064 $3,040.68 $414.64 $3,455.32 4 $538,933 $2,371.30 $323.36 $2,694.66 5 $437,304 $1,924.14 $262.38 $2,186.52 6 $385,154 $1,694.68 $231.09 $1,925.77 7 $333,583 $1,467.77 $200.15 $1,667.92 8 $235,581 $1,036.56 $141.35 $1,177.91 9 $139,572 $614.12 $83.74 $697.86
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Prepayment Models
No Prepayment
All prepay in year 10
Single monthly mortality
FHA Experience (real data)
Public Securities Administration (PSA) o Monthly prepayment model o Begins at 0.2%/12 per month o Increases 0.2%/12 per month until month 30 o Remains constant at 0.5% per month (or 6%) per year
thereafter
This experience resembles the average FHA prepay rates over the 1970-1984 period.
Secondary Mortgage MarketsPricing MBS
Prepayment Models
The 100% PSA Prepayment Model captures the average prepayment performance of FHA mortgages over the 1970-1984 period.
Expected (and actual) prepayment rates may be very different.
To capture differences, investors “adjust” the PSA prepayment
model by taking percentages of the 100% PSA Prepayment Model
o 50% PSA: about ½ of the 100% PSA prepayments o 200% PSA: about twice the 100% PSA prepayments o 400% PSA: about four times the 100% PSA prepayments
6 12 25 5018 36 70 13228 54 99 16928 52 91 14027 49 82 11027 47 71 8625 44 64 6725 41 57 5324 39 50 4224 36 44 3222 35 40 2622 32 35 2022 31 31 1621 28 27 1220 28 24 1019 25 22 719 24 19 619 23 17 518 21 15 417 20 13 217 19 12 316 18 10 216 16 10 115 16 8 115 15 7 115 14 7 114 13 5 014 12 5 113 12 5 013 11 4 0
PSA Prepayments for 1,000 Mortgageswith Different PSA Assumptions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f Pre
pay
men
ts
50% PSA
100% PSA
200% PSA
400% PSA
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