scott goldsmith: what is a sustainable draw from the permanent fund?

WHAT IS A SUSTAINABLE DRAW

FROM THE PERMANENT FUND?

Commonwealth North

Fiscal Policy Study Group

January 31, 2017

Scott Goldsmith

Institute of Social and Economic Research

University of Alaska Anchorage

Inevitable and Prolonged Tug of War

No Income

Tax!

No Sales Tax!

No Dividend

Cuts!

No More Budget Cuts!

Proposals for Use of PF Earnings

ACCESS TOTAL EARNINGS OF PF--POMV (Constitutional Endowment)– Fold Earnings Reserve into PF Corpus

– Draw 4.5% - 5% of PF value from PF Corpus

– Divide draw between UGF and PF Dividend

IMMEDIATE PLUG--SB114 (Statutory POMV)– Draw 5% of PF value from PF Earnings Reserve for UGF

– Pay PF Dividend from 75% of Royalties (with a floor)

STABILIZE REVENUE STREAM—GOVERNOR WALKER PROPOSAL (Statutory Sovereign Wealth Fund)– Dump SB21 revenues and additional 25% of Royalties into PF Corpus

– Draw % of PF value or $3.2 Billion from PF Earnings Reserve for UGF (inflation adjusted amount that sustains PF value)

CREMO PLAN (Constitutional Endowment)– Similar to POMV except ALL petroleum revenue deposited into PF

– Pay PF Dividend from 50% of Royalties

Which Draw Mechanism Produces

the Best Sustainability Tradeoff?

• Do we care about the future?

• What do we think the future will look like as petroleum production continues to fall?

A flow of income from current financial assets and the projected future petroleum revenue stream which, if adopted now, could be maintained consistently long into the future--adjusted for inflation and population growth.

Hypothetical Investment Rate of Return

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Nominal Rate of Return

Real Rate of Return (RRR)

Inflation

One RRR Estimate

RRR : Actual History

Investment Nominal Rate of Return:

Where Should It Go?

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Inflation

Proofing

PopulationAdjustment

Depletion

Allowance

Sustainable

Draw

NominalReturn

Nonspendable Fund Balance Assigned Balance: (Earnings Reserve)

Contributions Unrealized Gain

$40.7 + $5.3=$46.0 + $9.0 = $55

Current Practice: Inflation Proof Contributions

2017 Partial vs. Full

Inflation Proofing

CONTRIBUTIONS2.3 % x $41 billion = $941 Million

TOTAL FUND (POMV)2.3 % x $55 Billion = $1.27 Billion

Nonspendable Fund Balance Assigned Balance

Contributions Unrealized Gain

$40.7 + $5.3=$46.0 + $9.0 = $55

Inflation Proofing: Who Needs It?

Value of Contributions increases if Unrealized Gain counted

Unrealized Gains Accumulate in

Nonspendable Fund Balance

(Slow Turnover of Portfolio)

Statutory / Accounting Return = 50% Under spend today

Unrealized Gains Cashed out from

Nonspendable Fund Balance

(Fast Turnover of Portfolio)

Statutory / Accounting Return = 88% Over spend today

Unrealized Gains Cashed out from

Nonspendable Fund Balance

(In Between Turnover Rate of Portfolio)

Statutory / Accounting Return = 66%

Just Right spend today

Investment Nominal Rate of Return:

Where Should It Go?

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Inflation

Proofing

PopulationAdjustment

Depletion

Allowance

Sustainable

Draw

NominalReturn

Will Need for Public Services Grow With

Population?

Other measures of the cost of government?

Alaska Population Growth

Investment Nominal Rate of Return:

Where Should It Go?

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Inflation

Proofing

PopulationAdjustment

Depletion

Allowance

Sustainable

Draw

NominalReturn

Why a Depletion Allowance?

To Sustain the Total

Endowment from Petroleum

Reserves?

Sustaining the Endowment:

Transformation from Petroleum in

the Ground to Money in the Bank

PETROLEUMIN THE GROUND

MONEY IN THE BANK

STYLIZED HISTORY << >> FUTURE

Sustainable Deposit Rate depends on How Much Petroleum Revenue Remains to be Collected in the Future

Historical Depletion Allowance

Is this the right amount?

My Estimate:

“Owner State” Endowment

* Estimated Net Present Value of Future Petroleum Revenue

TOTAL (FY 2018) $98 Billion

In the Bank $57 Billion

In the Ground* $41 Billion

Known Conventional Oil $25 Billion

Other Oil $5 Billion

Gas $11 Billion

Assumptions:Optimally Manage What We Can Control

Known Conventional Oil Production Decline @ 4%Oil Price tracks ADOR, then 3.5% growth

New Conventional OilNPRAHeavy OilShale Oil

Gas Commercialization in 2026 Gas Revenues to State $1.00/mcf

Real Rate of Return on Investments 5.0%

Population Growth Rate .5%

Inflation Rate 2.25%

How Much Can We Spend Today

from the Endowment?

NEST EGG (FY 2018) $98 Billion

Multiply: MSY Take Rate 4.5% (5%-.5%)

Equals: MSY Take $4.4 Billion

Current Petroleum Revenues (fluctuates yearly) ?

Investment Income (endowment draw minus current petroleum revenues)

$4.4 Billion - ?

Minus: PF Dividend $ 1.4 Billion

Equals: Endowment Draw for UGF $ 3 Billion

Plus: Non-Petroleum GF Revenues $ .5 Billion

Equals: UGF MSY $ 3.5 Billion

Sources for UGF Spend

Transition of UGF Spend down to $3.76 Billion in 2021 before resuming growth

Sources for UGF Spend: Random Oil Price

Use of investment income fluctuates yearly.

Financial Draw is Residual

to Hit Sustainable Spend Target

Wrap Up

• Sustainability should be based on ENTIRE Endowment

• Sustainable draw depends on size of ENTIRE Endowment

• Fixed draw rate from financial asset does not account for• Depletion of petroleum asset• Variation in petroleum revenue from price

fluctuations

• POMV with doubling of Royalty Deposit into PF would provide an approximate solution

• Implementation of limit on spending from Endowment based on Sustainability Analysis would be best solution (but politically challenging)

Good News Scenario?

Known Conventional Oil Production Decline @ 4%Oil Price exceeds ADOR Forecast

New Conventional OilNPRAHeavy OilShale Oil

Gas Commercialization in 2026 Gas Revenues to State $1.00/mcf

Real Rate of Return on Investments 5.25%

Population Growth Rate .5%

Inflation Rate 2.25%

Nest Egg $103 Billion

MSY $4.9 Billion

GF MSY $4.0 Billion

$4.0 billion UGF can grow with inflation & population

Best News Scenario?

Known Conventional Oil Production Decline @ 4%Oil Price exceeds ADOR Forecast

New Conventional OilNPRAHeavy OilShale Oil

Gas Commercialization in 2026 Gas Revenues to State $1.00/mcf

Real Rate of Return on Investments 5.25%

Population Growth Rate 0%

Inflation Rate 2.25%

Nest Egg $103 Billion

MSY $5.5 Billion

GF MSY $4.5 Billion

$4.5 billion UGF can grow with inflation

Bad News Scenario?

Known Conventional Oil Production Decline @ 4%Oil Price tracks ADOR Forecast, then 3% growth

New Conventional OilNPRAHeavy OilShale Oil

No Gas

Real Rate of Return on Investments 4.5%

Population Growth Rate 0%

Inflation Rate 2.25%

Nest Egg $86 Billion

MSY $3.9 Billion

GF MSY $2.9 Billion

$900 per capita tax allows UGF to grow from $3.76 billion starting in 2021

Worst News Scenario?

Known Conventional Oil Production Decline @ 4%Oil Price tracks ADOR Forecast, then 3% growth

No New Conventional OilNo NPRANo Heavy OilNo Shale Oil

No Gas

Real Rate of Return on Investments 4.5%

Population Growth Rate .5%

Inflation Rate 2.25%

Nest Egg $81 Billion

MSY $3.2 Billion

GF MSY $2.3 Billion

$1,750 per capita tax allows UGF to grow from $3.76 billion starting in 2021

Alternatives Moving Forward:

Cost / Benefit Analysis

Tradeoff for one year is less revenue ($600 million) against a stronger economy.

Which do you prefer?

BASE CASE BAD NEWS

WHAT IS A SUSTAINABLE DRAW

FROM THE PERMANENT FUND?

Commonwealth North

Fiscal Policy Study Group

January 31, 2017

Scott Goldsmith

Institute of Social and Economic Research

University of Alaska Anchorage