science vs nonscience
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Science and Superstition(Impress Your Friends with Latin)
Why We Believe Weird ThingsLogical FallaciesCritical Thinking
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X-Files: Weird Things
UFOs and the Bermuda Triangle Ghosts, demonic possession
Bigfoot, Loch Ness monster
Alternative medical therapies
Astrology, Feng Shui, palmistry
Cults, unorthodox religious beliefs
Urban myths and conspiracy theories
ESP, dj vu, alien abduction
Why do we believe in them?What does science have to say about them?
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Because everyone else does
argumentum ad populum(many people) Because beliefs are shared by others
argumentum ad antiquitatem(tradition)
Because we have long believed so argumentum ad verecundiam(authority),
argumentum ad baculum(power) Celebrities, politicians, even some scientists
subscribe to weird beliefs, help propagate them
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Why We Believe Weird ThingsBad Logic Because you cant prove them wrong: Argumentum ad
ignorantiam(argument from ignorance)
Whoever makes a claim has the Burden of Proof
Carl Sagan: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof
Emperors New Clothes argument:
It only works if you believe in it.
You dont have the gift (or dont cultivate it), so you cant see the
spirits.
Some beliefs are unfalsifiable (remember K. Popper?). Ex.1:
Palm reader, iridologist: You are prone to diabetes, so be careful. If you get diabetes, theyll say, See? I told you so.
If you dont get diabetes: I see you heeded my warning .
Ex.2: Recently from US cabinet official: Terrorists are going to
attack inside the US this summer.
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Why We Believe Weird Things: Bad Logic
Because they seemtrue: cum hoc ergo propter hoc(with this,therefore because of this)
Ex. Drinking green tea prevents shark attacks. I dont seeany sharks around here. See how well it works?
Fact: US counties that consume more wine have more cancercases. Therefore wine causes cancer. Wine consumption (A) is associated with high cancer incidence (B) not
because (A) causes (B), but because (A) and (B) have the sameultimate cause. Wealthier people drink more wine and live longer; livinglonger increases chances of getting cancer.
In general, many health fads seemto work because1.People who follow them can afford better health care
2.Health fanatics take better care of themselves.3.Many health fanatics are hypochondriacs
Explain these: (1) Humans with bigger shoe sizes have higherIQs. (2) Apr 07 phone survey: Mike Defensor will win easily
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Because it is easier to believe than to verify
Many phenomena poorly understood, difficult to explain Ex. Schizophreniaexplains demonic possession: collective stress
reaction(mass hysteria) explains group demonic possession
Dj vu: malfunction in dentate gyrusin hippocampus weakens abilityto differentiate between two similar but different situations
Alien abductions: delusions, or fake implanted memories
Statistical Innumeracy: We often have a poor grasp of how
likely something strange or fantastic occurs by pure chance
Ex. The Bermuda Triangle; dreams or predictions that come true;
strange coincidences
Simple explanations exist, but they can never refute a claim
Ex. UFOs, apparitions cannot be disproven
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Ghosts?
www.ghostvillage.com
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Ateneo Football Field, Feb 2007, 1AMAteneo Football Field, Feb 2007, 6PM
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Monkey FaceMonument on
Martian Surface?
Humans are
predisposed to look
for familiar patterns
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Why We Believe Weird Things
There is a Belief Industry
Because cranks (fortune tellers, cold readers, spiritmediums) can be very persuasive and skilled
Make general statements about a person: You have a
loved one living or working abroad.
Make specific-sounding statements to a group: I amhearing from a spirit whose name starts with J, like Jim or
Jason.
Make ambiguous statements: Youre not from here, are
you? Famous crackpots: Galileo, Edison
All other crackpots are just crackpots: Dingel, Escosa,
the late Ernie Walking Encyclopedia Baron
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Why We Believe Weird Things
There is a Belief Industry
Magic + spiritual content = mystical experience Cranks wrap weird beliefs with religion to enhance legitimacy
Why professional magicians are noted skeptics and debunkers:
Houdini, Amazing Randi, Penn & Teller
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Because people lie, even
people you dont expect to No reason to lie? Other than
money: boredom, fame,tourism, fanaticism
People who make fantasticclaims sound smart, special,gifted or holy
Claims from FOAF: sourceshave no reason to lie because
theyre not sure either Bigfoot, crop circles: people
continue to believe evenAFTER the hoax is admitted
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Because we underestimate our capacities to be
deceived People can be mistaken, even those who should know
better
Memories are selective, testimonies often faulty: why
courts require material evidence Delusions and hallucinations can be very real to
schizophrenics and their audience
Strange events at night: solitude, darkness, sleepywitnesses often explain them
If its on TV/newspapers/internet, its gotta be true
Michael Shermer, Why People Believe WeirdThings(2002): People simply hate changing theirminds
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Conspiracy theories: wild beliefs that persistbecause theyre interesting (e.g., Historians hide
the fact Adolf Hitler was Jose Rizals son)
. . . Or are fueled by public anger
Oil companies suppress technology that allow engines to
go 100 km/l, or the water-powered car
Big drug companies suppress natural cures
We know little about UFOs and aliens because the U.S.
Government is hiding data
Deeper truths lurk behind the JFK assassination, death
of Princess Diana, 9/11
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Cognitive Science
Confirmation Bias: Tendency to reinforce falsebeliefs by using (consciously or subconsciously) onlythe little information that supports the belief, blindly
ignoring overwhelming non-supporting data
Believers assign greater weight on gossip, anecdotes,personal experiences, crackpots than cold, hard facts
Rational Choice Theory: Seemingly crazy choicesare actually rational in that they provide benefit
Plaintiffs vs. Dow Corning breast implants: believing can
rationalize an illness, earn big payback for some
Vaccines cause autism: Believing may help find a cure
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Social Psychologist P. Leman on ConspiracyTheories: people believe that major eventsshould have major causes
Death of Princess Di, JFK assassination, 9/11 justcant have simple explanations
If big events can have minor causes, ordinary life
seems unacceptably random and unpredictable
Time Magazine (11 Sep 06): There is something
perversely comforting about the idea that some
great malevolent force is behind global events
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Because sometimes believing works thePlacebo Effect
People can get better when they believe they will:
endorphins, immune systems kick in
Doctors know many illnesses go away by themselves,with or without treatment, whatever the treatment
Because we remember better when beliefs come
true: selective memory
We tend to remember events that are remarkable
Beliefs become proven by selective memory, and
strengthened by repetition
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Because sometimes theyre true Many medicines are based on herbs used by
traditional healers Aspirin from willow bark, Tamiflu from star anise
Healers recommend conventional wisdom,which is usually right: Eat well, exercise, avoidfatty food, dont smoke or drink
Cranks know enough science to give themselves
and their ideas some credibility Feng Shui: some recommendations make sense:
Dont put a toilet over your dining area; choose a homethat faces east; stagger doors in hallways, etc.
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Because it makes life much more interesting Where will books and movies get their material?
There must be more to reality than science
How sad it would be if theyre not true (Santa Claus
effect)
Because we fearthe alternatives of not believing
Blaise Pascals Wager modified: Believing promises
immense rewards at little expense, not believing means
certain loss and winning nothing
So why tempt fate? Why mess with tradition?
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Because Were Human
Beliefs provide comfort, apparent control ofour fates a deeply human quality
Alternative therapies for the desperate
Talking to dead loved ones
Justice: sumpa, kulam or karma
Water-powered car, unlimited ocean energy fromdeuterium
Pyramid schemes, Nigerian internet scam: Youcannot cheat an honest man
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Why We Believe Weird Things
Because theres no harmin believing Most quack cures dont work, but at least they
dont make things worse
Urine therapy, megavitamins, homeopathy
Horoscopes: Reassuring, sound advice, even if
generic or trivial
Because some beliefs can have enough
unintended benefits to be promoted Ex. Animism helps protect the environment;
vegan lifestyle can be healthy
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No Harm?
You can hurt yourself Professional wrestling: Do not try at home
Judiels legacy: Agoo Dancing Sun Blindness
Amulet failure: the massacre of Lapiang Malaya, PBMAfollowers
You can deny yourself good health Prayer alone heals
Scientology: Psychiatry is fake; vitamins cure depression
Kids can die from simple health problems(appendicitis, internal injuries, diarrhea, infection)when parents refuseconventional treatment
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No Harm in Believing the Fantastic?
You can look stupid You can lose money: pyramid
schemes, excessive donations
You can die: doomsday cults
You can hurt others: basing yourchoice of mate on horoscope signs;choosing an employee based onhandwriting
Other side effects: naivet,gullibility, fatalism, fanaticism,helplessness, bigotry
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Why We Believe Weird ThingsBecause Science is Hard
Skeptical scientists sound dismissive, arrogant Believers complain scientists have closed minds
Scientists are not trained to communicate well, or rarely
have time to investigate fantastic claims
Science and learning is expensive Conventional medicine is expensive
So are books, education, culture
Scientific consensus changes all the time
Makes it hard to trust or accept scientific opinion
New findings modify, contradict, overturn old ones
Self-correction is part of sciences strength
Requires scientists to interact, stay updated, keep learning
Why We Believe Weird Things
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Why We Believe Weird ThingsBecause those who know better fail us
Media doesnt help Newspapers prefer simple catchy answers, titillate rather
than educate
Too willing to repeat claims rather than test them
RP: Popular, pro-poor, anti-establishment edge sells Governments generally tolerate unfounded beliefs
Alternative medicines are classified as food supplements,
not drugs, and are therefore tested for safety, not
effectiveness Many alternative drugs are labeled No proven
therapeutic claims but few read it
Govt. steps in only if something poses harm
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What about Religious Claims?
Conflict is really between crackpots and
fundamentalists vs. scientists i.e., Bad science vs. good science
After centuries of conflict, Catholic church and
scientists now agree on many fronts Even the Vatican relies on science: evolution, cosmology,testing miracles and claims (e.g. Shroud of Turin)
However, religious authorities often tolerate some popular
unfounded beliefs if they reinforce faith Remaining sources of conflict: usesof S&T
Beyond Science: human lifes meaning and purpose
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Thinking Clearly
Have faith in science and common sense Read good books, be informed, seek many sources
Apply Occams Razor: among many possible
explanations, the simplestis most likely to true If a fantastic claim is too good to be true, its false
Be a skeptic: Life is no less exciting, special,
purposeful, or mysterious without delusions
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