science: driving or preventing large-scale land investments?
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Science: driving or preventing large-scale land investments?
Elaborating on the nexus among Land, Water, Food, Energy and Climate.
Table of Contents What is the role of Science in tackling
such issues?
Water, Food and Energy nexus Two driving/limiting factors: climate and
land
Large scale land acquisition: what does the Science say?
Defining science "Science is the pursuit of knowledge and
understanding of the natural and social world following a systematic methodology based on evidence.”
UK Science Council
Science is about the travel, not the destination.
“Science is a culture of doubt.” Richard Feynman
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Why should the opinion of Science matter? Science is a key engine to expand our
understanding of facts
Science as a catalyst for discussion and engagement
Science as a driver for Policy Making
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Which Science are we talking about?
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Which Science are we talking about? Academies & Science societies Public/Private Universities Industry science Governmental research institutes Independent research groups
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
What challenges do most of scientists face? Complexity Uncertainty
Siloed approaches still spreading Shrinking resources
Telling the rest of the world all of the above
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
My two cents, today
“The opposite of a great truth is also true.”
Niels Bohr
Agriculture is a game-changer, and land is the battlefield Rural Development Gender Climate change WEF nexus
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Unfolding intricacies: the WEF nexus Increase in population and overall quality of
life Demand for water, food and energy:
+30/50% between 2010 and 2030 Short-term response induced by disparities
likely to have heavy effects on longer-term sustainability
Any strategy focusing on one side only risks severe unattended consequences
World Economic Forum, 2011
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Unfolding intricacies: WEF and Agriculture
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Earth at Night (Suomi NPP satellite, 2012)
Climate as a driving force
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Climate vs Agriculture
Food production: decrease by up to 2% each decade for 21st century
Global food demand: increase by as much as 14% each decade
Extreme weather increase risks to food production
IPCC leaked report
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Agriculture vs Climate
Agriculture = major contributor of methane and nitrous oxide
Agriculture accounts as much as transport & industry emissions
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
CCAFSCGIAR
Land: the battlefield
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Land
Energy Food
Water
Industry
Public
Com-munity
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?
Large-scale land investments: data & approach issues Data and information gap
“Researchers needed to make multiple contacts and meetings with governmental officers to access even superficial and incomplete information”
L. Cotula, 2009
Emergence of key partners outside traditional scientific communities
Two main strategies Data gathering from public reports Data gathering form official governmental registries
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?How much? “There will never be a single, ‘true’ figure for
how much land have been acquired globally or even in a given country”
L. Cotula 2013
Land Matrix: 50M Ha worldwide over 10 years Reports built on GRAIN data: 56M Ha of
agricultural-based deals Reports built on International Land Coalition
data: 51-63M Ha in Africa 2008-2010
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?
When? Large-scale land acquisition has deep
historical roots
Colonial land acquisitionState-driven land acquisition
Land acquisition of local elitesToday land deals
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?
Where? Sub-Saharan Africa
South and South-East Asia Soviet Eurasia South, Central America & Caribbean
region Domestic land acquisition
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?Who? China & Korea Gulf States & Lybia
More prominently: Western World Regional companies
Local intermediaries
But also Brazil South-East Asian emerging economies
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?Why?
5Fs: Food Feed Fuel (including wood) Fiber Finance
Water grabs
Green GrabsScuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Large-scale land investments: what is Science saying?Is it working? High uncertainty about how large-scale land
investments can benefit local communities Evidence is about what did not work
No durable benefits [job] Acquisition is generally an irreversible process Many failures due to poor assessment of
investment proposals by local governments Poor consultation mechanism
Conflict
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
What could be the way forward? Develop more inter- and trans-
disciplinary science
Promote crosspollination of academia and practice
Improving Communication tools Engage a broader community
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
Thank you, it was my pleasure!
Read: www.simonesala.it Write: simone.sala@gmail.com Tweet: @hereissimone
Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna – Pisa – November 8, 2013
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