roland berger-studie: niedriger Ölpreis setzt förderländer und Ölfirmen unter druck - prognosen...
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8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/roland-berger-studie-niedriger-oelpreis-setzt-foerderlaender-und-oelfirmen 1/23
Information document
Amsterdam, February 2016
2016 oil price
forecast: whopredicts best?
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/roland-berger-studie-niedriger-oelpreis-setzt-foerderlaender-und-oelfirmen 2/23
220160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
Since 2007, Roland Berger has published a yearly overview of allavailable oil price forecasts
Last year's results
USD 95 forecast1) for 2015
Nigeria replaced Russia in the top 3
86
110
90
Ø 95
Nigeria
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
10%
Nigeria 13%
Mexico 10%
Saudi Arabia
Period 1999-2014
Average absolute year-on-year oil price forecasting1) error [%]
1) To improve comparability, forecasts are adjusted for the ratio of local oil prices to WTI prices and for average budget deviations
> Since 2007, Roland Berger has published ayearly study on the oil price forecast
> Major oil producing countries use a forecasted
value of the oil price in their annual budgets
> We have studied the forecasting track recordsof the nine largest oil-exporting countries from1999 to 2015
> The budgeted oil prices of the top 3 mostaccurate countries are used to forecast the oil
price for the year ahead
> The oil price forecast of the countries iscompared to that of the major energyinstitutions: NYMEX, EIA and IEA
Roland Berger study of oil price forecasts, January 2016, WTI based
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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320160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
In 2015 the average price for a barrel was USD 49 – nearly half ofwhat the best forecasting countries had budgeted
Source: Utah Geological Survey; Union Pacific
0
50
100
150
jan-09 jan-08 jan-13 jan-06 jan-07 jan-16 jan-15 jan-14 jan-12 jan-11 jan-10 jul-09 jul-06 jul-07 jul-15 jul-12 jul-14 jul-11 jul-13 jul-08 jul-10
93
492015 average
2014 average
USD 49
USD 95
2015average
Top 3forecast
Development of monthly WTI averages [USD/barrel], Jan 2006 –
Dec 2015
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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420160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
This year's study not only contains the accuracy of last year'sforecast and next prediction, but also analysis of market dynamics
1 Analysis of the accuracy of countries and institutions as forecasters ofthe oil price in 2015 and aggregate over the last years
ACCURACY OF OILPRICE FORECASTS
2CHANGING
MARKETDYNAMICS
Analysis of the changing market dynamics since the USA has become amajor exporter of (shale) oil and analysis of the current oversupply in theglobal oil market
3FUTURE OIL
PRICES Analysis of oil price forecast of countries and institutions and underlyingpolitical and market dynamics
Elements of this year's study
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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Institutions have become the better price forecasters – For 2016they predict an average of USD 46 per barrel. Are they right again?
Over the last 15 years, the top oil exporting countries have outperformed the institutions(NYMEX, IEA, EIA) in correctly forecasting the oil price
Over the last 5 years however, the institutions have forecasted the oil price significantly betterthan the countries
Since the start of the shale gas boom, the US has not only been one of the major producers ofoil, but is also exporting significant amounts of petroleum products
Oil producing countries – Saudi Arabia in particular – have often adapted their oil output toprice levels, thereby influencing the oil price.
The dynamics have changed since American shale oil entered the equation. North Americanshale oil is moving towards being the swing supply
Despite requiring a significantly higher oil price to balance their budgets, Saudi Arabia and otheroil-producing countries have refused to cut down production, at least partly in fear ofencouraging American producers. As a result, the oil market has oversupply and the price ishistorically low
What will the future bring? Will the oversupply be curtailed by OPEC countries?
1
46
53
Institutions
Top-3 countriesPrediction for the2016 oil price[USD/barrel]
Accuracy of oilprice forecasts
2
Changing marketdynamics
3
Future oil prices
Improved performance of institutions vs. countries in the oil price forecast
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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1. Accuracy of oil priceforecasts
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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Neither countries nor institutions accurately predicted the oil pricedecline of 2015
Source: Ministry of Finance of selected countries; EIA; NYMEX; IEA; Press reports
2015 forecast1) 2015 forecasting errorCountry
Actual
101%
56%
61%
41%
126%
122%
106%
99%
85%
76% 46%
41% Algeria
RussiaNigeria
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Kuwait
Venezuela
Norway
Mexico
NYMEX
EIA
IEA
69
7186
90
97
98
100
108
110
49
69
78
76
1) To improve comparability, forecasts are adjusted for the ratio of local oil prices to WTI prices and for average budget deviations; 2) Excluding crisis years 2001 and 2009 which saw
large swings in the oil price
1 Accuracy of oil price forecasts
Top-3 forecastersbased on 1999-20142) – Averageaccuracy 96%
Average accuracy53%
Absolute year-ahead oil price forecasting error, 2015 [%]
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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Since 2010 institutions forecast better than oil producing countries,but even so for 2015 everyone's forecast was way off
Source: Ministries of Finance of selected countries; EIA; NYMEX; IEA; Press reports
1 Accuracy of oil price forecasts
18
117
19
35
2124
1316
5
13108
12
11
19
2008200720062005200420032002
Top-3 CountriesInstitutions
1) Top-3 countries based on total forecasting accuracy up to year n-1; 2009 excluded as this was a shock year with a large swing in the oil price, leadingto considerable inaccuracies in each of the forecasts
"Countries predict best" "Institutions predict best"
53
365
11
2
96
26
12
18
10
4 6
14
201520142013201220112010
Averageinstitutions'
accuracy
Average top-3countries'accuracy
Yearly absolute error, oil price forecast, institutions and top-3 countries1 , 2002-2015 [%]
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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Countries' predictions for the 2015 oil price were particularly far off – Almost all countries performed worse than their 5-year average
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Norway
Iran
Venezuela
Kuwait
Nigeria
Algeria
Mexico
136
85
25Ø 24
28
Ø 25
2015
46
1627
2011
10
66Ø 32
122
12 13
Ø 53
99
2015
46
24
45
2011
53
3
24 Ø 3111
106
11
1523
2011
Ø 41
2015
101
33 32
7308
76
Ø 19
20
2011
33
2015
Ø 28
4127 21
25 Ø 42
2015
126
2011
13 2123
Source: Ministries of Finance of selected countries; OPEC; Press reports
1 Accuracy of oil price forecasts
Forecasting errors or budget safety margin, 2010-2015 [%]
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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2. Changing marketdynamics
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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The rise of the institutions as better predictors coincides with the riseof the US as a major (shale) oil producer and exporter
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2,000
14,000
0
4,0006,000
10,000
8,000
12,000 USA
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Source: OPEC; EIA
2 Changing market dynamics
CRUDE OILPRODUCTION
EXPORTS (all
petroleumproducts)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
6,000
8,000
4,000
2,000
0
USA
Saudi Arabia
Russia
"Institutions predict best""Countries predict best"
Otherproducers inthis study
Crude oil production per country and US exports, 2007-2015 ['000 barrels/day]
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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The latest drop in the oil price is due to oversupply
Source: BP statistical review; IMF; Bernstein analysis and estimates; Roland Berger
Change in oil price (real)
Change in GDP
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 0
1 9 9 8
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 8
1 9 9 6
1 9 9 4
1 9 9 2
1 9 9 0
1 9 8 8
1 9 8 6
1 9 8 4
1 9 8 2
1 9 8 0
Over supply
Drop in demand
Left axis: change in oil price Right axis: change in GDP
2 Changing market dynamics
• Most price drops are caused by a dropin demand related to stagnating GDPgrowth during a recession (1998 Asianfinancial crisis; 2001 tech bubble burst;2009 global financial crisis, etc.)
• Today's situation is similar to 1986 – There is no recession and the pricedrop is driven by oversupply
•1986 oil price shock was caused bystrong production growth in OPECcountries
• 2014 oil price shock mainly caused by American production, coupled by non-decline in OPEC countries
(Real) oil price development and GDP change during previous oil price drops
2 0 1 5
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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Brief periods of oversupply generally do not distort the price, butnow for 17 consecutive months there is more supply than demand
Oversupply Undersupply
Source: EIA; Roland Berger
Total World Consumption
Total World Supply98
96
94
92
90
88
2015201420132012
17 consecutive months in which supplyoutpaced demand
1.51.52.01.3
2.5
1.82.0
3.0
2.1
2.7
0.42.21.82.11.8
0.80.8
-0.2
0.81.00.50.8
0.20.5
-0.3-1.0
-0.8-0.4-0.1-0.5
0.70.4
-0.1
0.4
-1.2-0.3-0.4
-1.1-1.0-0.6
-1.4
-0.4-1.0
0.3
2.4
1.1
0.0
2.9
Average gap of1.8 m barrels/dayputting pressure
on the oil price
2 Changing market dynamics
Global supply and demand of oil and net differential (million barrels/day)
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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1420160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
Unlike during previous price shocks Saudi Arabia has notably notadapted its production volume to today's oversupply
Productionvolume
[millionbarrels/day]
Oil price[Arab Light;USD/barrel]
Source: OPEC; EIA
Last 6 months(Jun 2015 – Dec 2015)
3441454647
55
-39%
Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Dec-15Nov-15
During 2008 price drop(Jul 2008 – Dec 2008)
-13%
8.26
8.81 9.22 9.37 9.49 9.52
3950
69
98
114
133
-71%
Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
2 Changing market dynamics
> Within OPEC, Saudi
Arabia has
traditionally played the
role of the marginal
swing supplier
> During 2014, OPEC
univocally announced
that it would not cut
down production
> Market share
protection cited as
main driver of thedecision
Production volume and oil price, Saudi Arabia
-1%
10.19 10.28 10.19 10.29 10.29
Dec N/A
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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1520160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
9080706050403020100
Cost [USD/barrel]
Supply [m barrels/day]
North American shale seems to have become the swing supply aslong as OPEC countries continue to maintain production levels
Source: OPEC; Roland Berger
2 Changing market dynamics
RationaleGlobal 2015 supply curve1) by type
Onshore Middle East
Offshore shelf
Extra heavy oil
Deepwater
OnshoreRussia
Onshore RoW
Ultradeepwater
Oil sands
NA shale
Short-term total cost curve (OFS cost reduction)
Current total cost curve
Onshore (conventional)Typically has low total cost of production.Can be swing supply for political reasons,however, Saudi Arabia has not cut
production
OffshoreTypically long timelines and large sunkinvestments
Heavy oilRelatively low price, expected to continueto run under all price levels
Oil sandsThermal nature of operations force oilsands to keep running
Shale oil
Most dynamic production, quick impact onmarket from change in investment profile,development-to-production cycle is shortand has rapid decline rates
Potential swing supply / Other supply
Expansion
Contraction
ExpansionContraction
Global supply curve and possibility to be swing supply by resource type
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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1620160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
3. Future oil prices
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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1720160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
What will the future bring for oil prices? Expert opinions areinconclusive
Source: Press
Future oil prices3
We don’t anticipate a recovery in 2016because the growth of capacity will be largerthan the growth of demand
7-Dec-2015 -- Patrick Pouyanne, CEO atTotal
"We could see a price $30 to $40 by the middle of the yearand I think towards the end of the year it could be intothe $50s."
20 Jan 2016 -- Bob Dudley, CEO at BP
"…the market continues to look forsomething to support the prices, butactually there's nothing out there right at themoment"
12-Jan-16 - Andy Lipow, President at LipowOil Associates
" The oil prices we are seeing today are not sustainableand are going to settle at higher levels … and higher , in mymind, over the next few decades than the low $60s that werequire to make this deal a good deal"
11-Jan-2016 -- Ben van Beurden, CEO at Shell
"Oil could fall to $10 a barrel, but I don't think it would staythere. I think somewhere around $30 a barrel is probablya fair place to look for stabilization in the oil complex
12-Jan-2016 -- David Lebovitz, J.P. Morgan
" While we are increasingly convinced that the market needsto see lower oil prices for longer to achieve a production cut,the source of this production decline and its forcingmechanism is growing more uncertain, raising the possibilitythat we may ultimately clear at a sharply lower price withcash costs around $20 a barrel Brent prices."
11-Sep- 2015 -- Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs
Selected quotes on oil price forecasts
Even lower Current levels Price rebound
" “ We think prices could fall as low as $10 a barrelbeforemost of the money managers in the market conceded thatmatters had gone too far."
12-Jan-2016 – Analyst at Standard Chartered
" Crude prices will start to recover in 2016as output fromthe U.S. and other non-OPEC producers declines."
7-Dec-2015 -- Ryan Lance, CEO at Conoco
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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1820160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
When oil prices are very low oil-exporting countries reduce thesafety margin they apply when forecasting the price for their budget
Changes in use of safety margin by oil-exporting countries
> The Roland Berger annual oil price forecast study is based on the forecasting track records of the ninelargest oil-exporting countries from 1999 to 2015
> Historically oil-exporting countries have used what we call a forecasting error or safety margin in their
budget assumptions i.e. they budget for a lower oil price than they actually expect. This safety margindiffers per country
> In the year following a significant drop in oil prices we have seen that the applied safety margin islower most likely because a low oil price leaves less room
> For 2016 we have assumed that oil-exporting countries have again used a lower safety margin as theoil price is at its lowest levels since 13 years
Future oil prices3
F t il i
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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1920160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
1) Updated top-3: based on 1999-2015, previously Mexico was included but Mexico now hedges the price for most of their exports. To improve comparability, forecasts are adjusted for the
ratio of local oil prices to WTI prices (2012-2014) and for average budget deviations (1999-2014, excluding 2001 and 2009); 2) IEA's forecast is based on OECD Economic Outlook
The oil price is now ~USD 30, top-3 forecasting oil producers predictUSD 38 – 53, institutions predict an average price of USD 39 – 50
Source: Ministries of Finance; National banks; Press reports
Future oil prices3
~30
WTI oil price as
of Jan 2016
Predictionof top-3forecastingcountries1)
Prediction of
institutions
46
39
50
49
Average
EIA
IEA
NYMEXBoth countriesand institutionsexpect the oilprice to rise
again
2015 WTI price forecasts1) [USD/barrel]
38
≤48
Russia ≤ 61
Saudi Arabia ≤51
Average 38-53
Nigeria
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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3 Politically determined prices: increase necessaryB
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2120160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
Alternatively, US producers might cut production, as ~50% of supplyis uneconomical around USD 50/barrel
3 Politically determined prices: increase necessaryB
1)Supply curve does not include condensates or NGLs. The dotted light blue line shows a supply curve adjusted 20% downward to reflect pressure onthe supply chain to reduce cost, though once the market balances, costs should increase. The supply curve is based on breakeven or total cost whichcovers exploration, F+D, production, SG&A, transport, taxes, etc.; 2) USD in 2012 dollars
Source: Roland Berger
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Oil price (USD/barrel)
Production volumes (million b/day)
~50% of productioneconomically not
feasible
Conventional
Offshore
Eagleford
Bakken/Rockies
Permian
Gulf Coast
Mid-continent and Alaska
> With lower prices, unit costs willdecrease as E&Ps pressure thesupply chain
> EIA production forecast suggeststhat a production cut from the USis likely – and may even surpassthat of the OPEC countries
2015 US crude supply curve projection1)
Future oil prices3
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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2220160209 oil price forecast 2016 v2.pptx
Both institutions and oil producing countries forecast an average oilprice around USD 50, will they be right?
Future oil prices3
> The current oil price is at its lowest level since 13 years – The drop of the oil price at the end of 2014 wasnot caused by a recession, but by over supply
> Institutions (NYMEX, EIA, IEA) predict only a moderate rebound of the oil price (to an average of USD 46per barrel in 2016) – This suggests a continuation of the supply-demand imbalance – Arguments in favor of this scenario are slowly growing demand and the fact that production costs are
still below the current oil price in most OPEC countries
> The 3 countries that have provided the best oil price forecast predict a rebound (to between USD 38 and53 per barrel over the year) – This scenario requires that supply is curbed to remove the supply-demandimbalance – Arguments in favor of this scenario are the budget deficits of most OPEC countries that might force
them to act and the fact that ~50% of the US oil production is uneconomical at prices below
USD 50/barrel
> Over the last few years the institutions have predicted the oil price best. Are they right again, or willpolitical pricing mechanisms regain control?
Summary
8/19/2019 Roland Berger-Studie: Niedriger Ölpreis setzt Förderländer und Ölfirmen unter Druck - Prognosen zunehmend unzuverlässig (DOKUMENT)
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