risk register - fermilab

HL-LHC CMS Detector Upgrades Project CMS-doc-13480 Version 3.0

Lucas Taylor, 06-Mar-2019 1

Risk Register For DOE Scope

ThisdocumentisasnapshotoftheWeb-basedriskregisterthatisusedtohelpidentify,assess,andmanage risks. The register includes threats (with negative impacts); opportunities (with positiveimpacts);andproject-wideuncertainties(witheithernegativeorpositiveimpacts,suchasexchangerateuncertainties).Theserisksaredescribedherein.

The general procedures and techniques used to identify and assess risks, perform quantitativeanalysis,developmitigationandresponseplans,andcontrolandreportonrisksaredescribedhere:

[1]“FermilabRiskManagementProcedureforProjects”,PPP-doc-65.

http://ppp-docdb.fnal.gov/cgi-bin/ShowDocument?docid=65.

Themodestamountofproject-specifictailoringofthisprocessisdescribedhere:

[2]HL-LHCCMSUpgrades“RiskManagementPlan”,CMS-doc-13749.https://cms-docdb.cern.ch/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=13749

TheMonteCarlomethodologies thatweuse to:analyze theconsequencesof risks;aggregatecostand schedule impacts, including cost estimate uncertainties; and establish the cost and schedulecontingencyneedsoftheprojectaredocumentedelsewhere:

[3]HL-LHCCMSUpgrades“RiskandContingencyAnalysis(DOEScope)”,CMS-doc-13481.https://cms-docdb.cern.ch/cgi-bin/DocDB/ShowDocument?docid=13481

TheriskshereinarelistedinorderofRiskID,whichhasthesyntaxRx-402-n-iii.• Rx=RT(forthreats),RO(foropportunities),andRU(foruncertainties);• 402denotestheP6IDoftheproject(theriskregisteriscommonacrossFermilab);• ndenotestheL2WBSID:

o 0=ProjectManagement (NSFscope–notshownhere);o 1=ProjectManagement (DOEscope);o 2=OuterTracker (DOEscope);o 3=BarrelCalorimeter (NSFscope–notshownhere);o 4=EndcapCalorimeter (DOEscope);o 5=EndcapMuons (NSFscope–notshownhere);o 6=TriggerandDAQ (DOEscope);o 7=ForwardPixels (NSFscope–notshownhere);o 8=TimingLayer (DOEscope);ando 9=TriggerandDAQ (NSFscope–notshownhere).

iii=001,002,etc.isanumericalriskidentifier.

Document Change Log

Version Date Changedby ChangesV-0.1 2018-01-18 LucasTaylor FirsttemplateversioncreatedbasedonNSFPDRversion.V-1.0 2018-03-15 LucasTaylor VersioncreatedforDOECD-1Director’sReview.V-2.0 2018-05-08 LucasTaylor VersioncreatedforDOECD-1Review,includingnewsummarytableofrisks.

V-2.1 2018-05-15 LucasTaylor Updatecontributedlaborrisk:newTimingLayerdataandcostedlaborrate.

V-3.0 2019-03-06 LucasTaylor VersioncreatedforDOECD-1(v2)Director’sReview,March2019.

Admin note: how to update this document:

(1) ConnecttotheWindowsTerminalServer(youneedWindowsExplorerfortheSharePointexport).(2) Openthewebbasedriskregister1.(3) Openview=ADMIN--Exceldumpforproject=XXX.(4) Checkthefiltersareappropriate(e.g.project,fundingsource,riskstatus,etc.)(5) Exportregister toExcel.TheExcel filehashiddencharactersand“dataconnections” thatcorrupt the

restoftheprocess.SoopentheExcelfile,selectallthetextanddo“ClearFormats”.Thencopy-pastethecellsofinterestBYVALUEintoafreshExceldocumentandsaveit.

(6) InthefreshExceldocument,searchfordouble-quotesintheExcelfile.ReplacethemwithsinglequotesinthewebRiskRegisterbecausetheycorruptthemailmerge.ThenredotheexporttoExcel.

(7) Adjust the Excel formatting (e.g. set date format, set percentage format and precision, set P*Impactprecisions).Wherepossiblefixtherootcauseintheriskregisterandredotheexport.

(8) DeletespuriouscolumnsintherightoftheExceltable(theextraonesthatSharePointexportsforyouwithoutyourasking).Theysometimeshangthemailmerge.

(9) Update theMSWordmail merge template (e.g.2019-03-06---CMS-HL-LHC---Risk-Register---mail-merge-template.docx,storedinCMS-doc-13480)withthenewExceldata.

(10) CheckWordformattingandtidyupifnecessary(preferablyfixtherootcauseintheriskregisterandredotheexport).Forsomereasonrandomtextfieldscangetcorrupted(eventhoughtheylookfineinSharePointandExcel).Ifyoucannotfixtherootcause,copypastetheuncorruptedtextbyhand.

(11) InWordriskregister:usespecialmenuofReplacemenutochangeallSectionbreakstoPagebreaks.(12) Addheaderandfooterwithpagenumbers,ifdesired.(13) Pastethefinalresultsfromthemailmergeintothisdocument(e.g.2019-03-06---CMS-HL-LHC---Risk-

Register---cover-page.docx, stored in CMS-doc-13480), check it formats OK, and generate a PDF.AlternativelymaketwoPDFsandmergethemwithe.g.AdobeAcrobatPro.

(14) UploadeverythingtoDocDB:CMS-doc-13480.

1https://fermipoint.fnal.gov/organization/ocoo/ippm/SitePages/ProjectRiskManagement.aspx

Summary table of risks The table below shows the risks that are included in the MC model, including their estimatedprobabilities, and cost and schedule impacts. A risk identifier (RI-ID)with a prefix RT denotes athreat, RO denotes an opportunity, and RU denotes a risk uncertainty. The cost and scheduleimpactshaveeitherone,twoor(usually)threevaluesdependingonwhetheritisa1-pointestimate(singlevalue),a2-pointestimate(i.e.aflatrangep.d.f.),ora3-pointestimate(i.e.atrianglep.d.f.).

TheremainderofthisdocumentlistsallrisksorderedfirstbyWBS,thenbyriskID.

Risk Register for the HL-LHC CMS Detector Upgrades Project

Lucas Taylor Page 1 Updated: 2019-03-06

RO-402-2-03-DOT-Moduleassemblycanbeautomated

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:5(VH);Cost:2(M)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifautomationinmoduleassemblycomestofruition,thenlaborcostsandscheduledurationsbothdecreaseRiskType: Opportunity Owner: LeonardGSpiegelWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ExternalRisk/FacilitiesProbability(P): 66% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

Minimum =k$Mostlikely =-1000k$Maximum =k$Mean =-1000k$P*<Impact> =-660k$

ScheduleImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalueMinimum =monthsMostlikely =-2monthsMaximum =monthsMean =-2monthsP*<Impact> =-1.3months

BasisofEstimate: Areductionof$1.6Minfullyburdenedlaborcoststhroughouttheproductionperiodisdeterminedassumingthat2techniciansperassemblysitearereplacedwith2students(uncostedgraduatestudentsatFNALandmoderatelycostedundergraduatesatBrown=$30/hr).Thecostoftwogantryrobots($150keach)andengineering+programmingdevelopmentcosts($300k)leadstoa$1.0Mopportunity.Theimpactonthescheduleisexpectedtobe2monthsofsavingsbasedonthecurrentestimateofthelaborrequiredtocarryourthestepsbeingconsideredforautomation.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: AllPSand2SModuleassemblyactivitiesinaggregate.Implementedasariskhookbetweenstartandcompletionofproductionof2Smodules.

Startdate: 1/Oct/2019 Enddate: 1/Oct/2022RiskMitigations: IntheR&Dphasewewillpro-activelyexploreautomatingcertainstepsinthemoduleassemblyprocesswiththeaimofrealisingtheassociatedcost

andschedulesavings.RiskResponses: Accepttherisk,producemodulesmoreefficientlyMoredetails:

RO-402-2-08-DOT-CanusecheaperCarbonFoamforrings

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:4(H);Cost:1(L)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfcheaperCarbonFoamshowsacceptableperformancefortherings,thepotentialdecreaseinthecostofthecarbonfoammaybenefittheproject

budgetRiskType: Opportunity Owner: StefanGruenendahlWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ExternalRisk/MarketProbability(P): 50% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

ScheduleImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalueMinimum =monthsMostlikely =0monthsMaximum =monthsMean =0monthsP*<Impact> =0.0months

BasisofEstimate: Estimatethatthecostcouldbehalved(reducedfrom$120kto$60k).CauseorTrigger: Ringprototypesbuiltwithmechanicalgrade(cheaper)carbonfoammeet

QCcriteria(precision,stiffness)

ImpactedActivities: Carbonfoamprocurements

Startdate: 1/Jan/2020 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: Weareevaluatingringprototypesbuiltwithmechanicalgrade(cheaper)carbonfoam.Resultsobtainedsofar(firstpairofprototypes)look

promising.RiskResponses: AcceptopportunityMoredetails:

RO-402-8-01-DETL-UseAltiROC

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IftheAltiROCmeetsourspecification,wewillbeabletouseitandwewillnothavetopayforthecostoftheproductionmaskset.

RiskType: Opportunity Owner: TiehuiLiuWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: ManagementRisk/PlanningProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

ScheduleImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalueMinimum =monthsMostlikely =-8monthsMaximum =monthsMean =-8monthsP*<Impact> =-0.8months

BasisofEstimate: Theprobabilityisinitiallysetto10%sincetheinitialtestresultsoftheAlitROCv0doesnotmeetourspecification.WewillevaluatetheperformanceoftheAltiROCasnewversionsbecomeavailableandwewillremaininclosecontactwiththeAltiROCdevelopers.Thecostsavingscorrespoondstothecostoftheproductionmaskset.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Startdate: 1/Jan/2022 Enddate: 1/Jan/2023RiskMitigations: RiskResponses: Moredetails:

RT-402-1-05-DPM-Significantfundingdelayduringprojectexecution(DOE)

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:3(H)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: ItisassumedthatDOEfundswillnotnecessarilyarrivepromptlyatthestartofeachfiscalyearforvariousadministrativeorotherreasons.In

addition,theProjectmaytemporarilyreceivesomewhatlessthantheexpectedleveloffundingifthereisaContinuingResolutioninplace.TheProjectexpectstobeabletocontinueworkingthroughsuch(non-catastrophic)scenarioswiththehelpofcarry-overfunds,suchasunspentcontingency.Thereis,however,amoresignificantfundingdelayrisk:ifthedecisiontoapprovetheProject’sinitialuseofMIEfunds(i.e.CD-3A)coincideswithaContinuingResolution(CR)–thatprohibitsany'newstarts'–thenallMIE-supportedworkwouldbeheldupforthedurationoftheCR.Thisdelaysmanyactivitiesandhasancostimpactduetoescalationandstandingarmycosts.

RiskType: Threat Owner: VivianO'DellWBS: 402.1PM-ProjectManagement(DOE) RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 21% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

Minimum =0k$Mostlikely =0k$Maximum =3339k$Mean =1113k$P*<Impact> =234k$

ScheduleImpact: PDF =3-point-triangularMinimum =0monthsMostlikely =0monthsMaximum =9monthsMean =3monthsP*<Impact> =0.6months

BasisofEstimate: CongressionalResearchServicedataonCRdurations(https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42647.pdf)indicatethatinthelasttwodecadestherehavebeenmorethanfiveCRsperyearlastinganaverageof138daysperyear(4.5monthsor38%ofthewholeyear)and,inthreecasesforanentirefiscalyear.WeassumethatwewillseekCD-3Aapprovalatleast3monthsbeforethefundsareactuallyneeded.ThereforethefirstthreemonthsofaCRwouldnothaveanimpact.Wefindthaton21%ofthedaysfromFY1998–FY2016aCRwoulddelayCD-3Aapprovalbybetween0monthsand9months(i.e.21%ofthedaysanalyzedhaveaCRofdurationbetween3monthsand12months).Wemodelthisriskasatrianglep.d.f.withP=21%andmin/likely/max=0/0/9months.Thefullprojectburnrateis$371kpermonth(CMS-doc-13481)comprising$249kforstandingarmycostsand$122kforescalation.Thisestimatedstandingarmycostincludesthepossibilitythatsome,butnotall,personnelcanchargetheirtimetootheroff-projectactivitiesduringthedelay.9monthsat$371k/monthis$3,339k.

CauseorTrigger: Changesinfundingagencypriorities,orinCongressionalappropriationsduetopoliticalorotherreasons.

ImpactedActivities:

Startdate: 1/Jan/2018 Enddate: RiskMitigations: Itisassumedthatmodestfundingdelaysareinevitable.Theprojectplanwillmitigatethepotentialimpactsbyavoidinglargeprocurementsearly

ineachfiscalyearandusingcarry-overfunds(e.g.unspentcontingency).TheProjectwillaimtoseekapprovaltospendMIEfunds(i.e.'newstart'approval)inthesecondhalfofthefiscalyearifthisispossiblegiventhevariouspre-requisites(e.g.R&Dresults,vendorinformation,etc.).ThiswillreducethelikelihoodofcoincidingwithaCR.

RiskResponses: Ifsignificantdelaysduetolimitedavailabilityoffundsstarttolookinevitable,theprojectwillpro-activelyre-prioritiseworktominimisetheconsequencesforcriticalpathactivities.Theprojectwillworkcloselywiththeagenciestooptimizetheflowofevenlimitedfundstoensuretheprojectdoesnotgrindtoahalt.

Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-1-09-DPM-ES&HincidentatUS-CMSinstitute(DOE)

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:2(M)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifacontractororlaboratory/universityemployeeisinjuredorifmaterialisseverelydamagedinansafetyincident,orifanunplannedenvironmentalreleaseoccurs

duringtheconstructionorinstallationphases,theresultinginvestigationandimplementationofcorrectiveactionscouldshutdowntheprojectandcausescheduledelays,dependingontheseverityoftheincidentanditsimpactoncriticalpathwork.

RiskType: Threat Owner: GregoryRSnowWBS: 402.1PM-ProjectManagement(DOE) RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ES&HProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

ScheduleImpact: PDF =3-point-triangularMinimum =0.25monthsMostlikely =0.5monthsMaximum =2monthsMean =0.92monthsP*<Impact> =0.0months

BasisofEstimate: ThisriskassessmentisbasedonexperiencewithCMSPhase1Upgrades(only1minorES&Hincidentin5years)andexpertinputfromAmberKenney,DeputyHeadofFermilabESH&Q.Theapparentlyhighvalueoftheprobability(forasafety-relatedrisk)reflectstheinvolvementormorethan30institutesforaperiodofabout5years.Ifasafetyincidentoccurs,theinstitute,hostLab,DOE,NSForotherstakeholdersmayrequireaworkstoppageuntiltheyaresatisfiedtheissuesareresolvedandworkcanresume.Historicalexperienceindicatesthisisusuallyafewdaysorweeksbutinexceptionalcasesitcouldbemonths,particularlyifthereisafatality.Thecostimpactmayincludereworkorrepairs(beyondwhatiscoveredbyinsurance)andburnrates(asdescribedinCMS-doc-13481).Thescheduleimpactincludesdelaysduetoworkstoporderswhiletheincidentisanalysedandcorrectiveactionistaken.Tocapturearangeofpossibleconsequencesweconsiderthreescenarios:Minimpact:OneL3areaisimpactedfor1weekwithoutanydamage.TheaverageL3burnrate($18k/month)resultsinacostimpactofabout$4k(for1week).Likelyimpact:OneL2areaisimpactedfor2weeks.Thereis$20kofcorrectiveactioncost.TheaverageL2burnrate($68k/month)resultsinacostimpactof$32k(for2weeks).Totalcostimpact=$52k.Maximpact:Aseriousincidentresultsin$100kofcorrectiveactioncost.Aworkstoporderhaltsrelatedactivitiesproject-widefor2monthsasfailingsareaddressed.Someactivitiescontinue(e.g.design,firmware,software,etc.).Weassumethemonthlyburnrateinthisscenariois50%ofthetotalprojectburnrateof$371k/month.Thetotalcostimpact=$100k+2months*50%*$371k=$471k.

CauseorTrigger: DespiterigorousES&Hprogramatcollaboratinginstitutes,anaccidentcouldhappenduetounsafepractices,beingdistractedwhileworking,beinglaxaboutattentiontoenvironmentalregulatoryrequirements,orpoorenforcementofcontractES&Hprovisions.

ImpactedActivities:

Startdate: 1/Jan/2018 Enddate: RiskMitigations: ComprehensiveuseofISMprogramacrossentireprojectincludingcompleteHAprocess;goodESHcontractualprovisionsaswellasenforcement;workingupfront

duringconstructioncontractstogainbuy-inofconstructioncontractormanagementtoESHissueprevention.Oversightrolesandresponsibilitiesforcontractorandprojectteamtoincludeensuringadequatetrainingandattentiontositespecificrisks,andcompliancewiththeirESHprogram.ThehostLabsandagenciesprovidereview/oversightonregularbasis.

RiskResponses: Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-1-12-DPM-Majorimportorexportissue(DOE)

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Thereisamajorunforeseenimport/exportissue.Forexample,ruleschangeinsuchawayastodelayorincreasethecostofimportingorexporting

certainitems(e.g.radhardcomponents).Ifinsufficientinteragencyandinternationalregulatorycoordinationhasoccurred,thenitemsmovedbetweencountriesmaybedelayedorsubjecttoadditionalcosts.

RiskType: Threat Owner: VivianO'DellWBS: 402.1PM-ProjectManagement(DOE) RiskArea: ExternalRisk/RegulatoryProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

ScheduleImpact: PDF =3-point-triangularMinimum =1monthsMostlikely =2monthsMaximum =4monthsMean =2.33monthsP*<Impact> =0.5months

BasisofEstimate: Themainimpactisadelaywhileissuesareresolved.Unexpectedcustomsdelaysofseveralmonthshavehappenedinthepast.Allowforalongtail(butunlikely)toevenhighervaluesif,forexample,thereisanissuethatalsorequirestheinvolvementofthehostLabs,fundingagencyortheStateDepartment.Directcostimpactcouldbesay10%ofextradutyongoodsworthupto$1Moruptoabout$100k.Directlaborcostsarealreadycoveredon-project(e.g.management)orbyindirectcosts(e.g.Labprocurementofficers).Theburnratecosts(standingarmyandescalation)aredescribedinCMS-doc-13481.WeassumethedelayimpactsoneL3systemwithatypicalburnrateof$18kpermonth.Minscenario:1monthdelay.Nodirectcostimpact.$18kofburnrate.Likelyscenario:2monthsdelay.$20kofdirectcosts.$36kofburnrate.Maxscenario:4monthsdelay.$100kofdirectcosts.$72kofburnrate.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Startdate: 1/Jan/2018 Enddate: RiskMitigations: Pro-activelyworkwithhostlabandfundingagencyprocurement,shipping,andimport/exportexpertstoidentifypotentialissues.Prepareplans

andworkinadvancetoensurethatallrulesandregulationsarecompliedwith.Monitorshippingactivitiesclosely,talktogovermentagencies,putassumptionsaboutwhopaysdutiesintocontracts.Considerholdinglogisticsreviews.Talktootherprojectstobetterunderstandprobabilities&impactsandmitigationstrategies.

RiskResponses: Workwiththehostlabandfundingagenciesprocurement,shipping,andimport/exportexpertstoaddresstheissues.Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-1-90-DPM-KeyProjectOfficepersonnelneedtobereplaced(DOE)

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:1(L)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Keyengineerorseniortechnicianwithspecialknowledgeleavestheprojectandneedstobereplaced.Ifthetransitioncanbemanagedsuchthat

theincomingandoutgoingpersonneloverlapandexchangeknowledge,thenthereismainlyalaborcostimpact.Ifthetransitionismoreabrupt,thenthereisnocostimpactofoverlappingpersonnelbuttherecanbeadelaytotheprojectactivitiesastheincomingpersongetsfullyuptospeed.Thisriskdoesnotincludetheriskoflosingkeymanagersbecausetheprojectensuresthateachmanagerhasawell-traineddeputy.

RiskType: Threat Owner: VivianO'DellWBS: 402.1PM-ProjectManagement(DOE) RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Thehas2staffwhosefunctionsareparticularlyhardtoreplaceonashorttimescale,inparticulartheAssociatePMforCost,ScheduleandRisk,andtheProjectControlsLead.ExperienceintheCMSPhase1Upgradeprojectsuggeststheprobabilityperkeypersonisroughly25%(probabilitytheyleaveduringtheentireproject).Thelaborcostperperson(acanonicalrate)is$15k/month(fullyburdenedrate=$185k/year).Minimumscenerio:personleavingisreplacedbyanexistingskilledperson.1monthoffulloverlapcosting$15k.Noscheduledelay.Likelyscenario:personleavingisreplacedbyanexistingpersonlessfamiliarwiththespecificwork.2monthsoverlaptotrainnewpersoncosting$30k.Maximumscenario:personleavesunexpectedlywithnotransferofknowledge.Significanttimehireanewpersonplus3monthsoflearningtimetobecomefullyproductiveatacostof3*$15k=$45kextralaborcost.Totalfor2persons:Min/Likely/Maxcostimpact=2*$(15/30/45)k=$(30/60/90)k.Ineachscenario,itisassumedthatothersintheteam(projectmanagersandprojectcontrols)cancovercriticaltaskssuchthatthereisnonetscheduleimpact.Inefficienciesinthistransitionarecoveredbythecostimpactsabove.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: IndividualpersonsareindependentlymodeledintheMC(eachwithcorrespondingfractionofthetotalcostimpact).Typicallyhooktherisktothepersonsmainactivityduringtheproductionphase(maximumconsequences).

Startdate: 1/Oct/2018 Enddate: RiskMitigations: KeyprojectofficestaffarematrixedatFermilabandcanbereplaced(withsomeinitiallossofefficiency)byotherLabstaff,contractors,ornew

hires.Intheveryshortterm,theprojectmanagerscanstepintosustainkeyfunctionsoftheprojectoffice.RiskResponses: Aimforoutgoingandincomingpersonneltooverlapifpossibletoensureasmoothtransition.Hirefromskilledmembersoftheexisitngteamif

appropriate.InterimsupportmaybepossibleusingstaffintheFermilabOfficeofProjectSupportServices.Moredetails:

RT-402-2-01-DOT-Sensorqualityproblemduringproduction

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:4(H);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifthesensorvendordeliverssensorsthatdonotmeetspecificationsthenthedegradedperformanceofthetrackerjeopardizesthephysics

performanceoftheupgradeddetector.RiskType: Threat Owner: UlrichHeintzWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 50% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: ThecontractwillbewrittenforthevendortodeliveraspecifiednumberofgoodsensorsthatsatisfyCMSspecifications.Thuswedonothavetopayforsensorsthatdonotsatisfythespecificationsandthereisnoimpactonsensorcost.TheonlycostimpactisthatwewillhavetorepeattheQCtestingofthereplacementsensors.Minimalimpact:thishappensduringproductionandiscorrectedquicklyafterfeedbackfromsensorQCleadingtoadelayofabout2monthsandnegligibledirectcost.Maximalscheduleimpact:thishappensduringpreproductionandthepreproductioncyclehastoberepeated,leadingtoadelayofabout6monthsandextralaborcostofabout$25k(costforpreproductioncycleofonesensortype).TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$23k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$0k+2months*$23kburnrate=$46k.Likelycost=$10k+3month*$23kburnrate=$79k.Maxcost=$25k+6months*$23kburnrate=$163k.TheproblemhastoeitherpersistovermanybatchesornotbenoticedduringQCatthevendor(forexampleadegradationofperformanceoversometime).Problemsthataffectasinglebatchofsensors(egbecauseofsomecontaminationorprocessingmistake)willnotleadtoasignificantdelaybecausereprocessingabatchwillonlyaddaweekortwototheproductionperiod.Basedonpastexperiencewiththevendorweexpectthistohappenatleastonceduringproductionandweassign50%probabilityforeachsensortype.

CauseorTrigger: Sensorsdonotsatisfyspecifications ImpactedActivities: Sensorprocurementactivitiesanddownstreamactivities.Thisappliestoeachtypeofsensor,buttheprobabilityshouldbe5%pertype(PS-s,PS-p,2S)

Startdate: 1/Apr/2020 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: Wecarryoutextensiveprototypingworkwiththevendorspriortoplacingthecontractforsensorproductiontomakesurethatvensorsunderstand

ourspecificationsandcanmeetthem.ThevendorwillcarryoutafirstsetofQCmeasurementsbeforethesensorsareshippedtoCERNanddistributedtoQCcenters.Thisensuresthatmostproblemswillbecaughtquicklyanddonotleadtosignificantimpactontheproject.Thecostofthesemeasurementsisfacturedintothesensorcost.

RiskResponses: Ifamodestproblemoccurs,workcloselywithvendortosolveit(e.g.testing).Replacetheflawedsensors.Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-06-DOT-TemporarylossofSensorQCSite

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfaSensorQCfacilitytemporarilybecomesinoperableduetolossordamageofcriticalequipment(e.g.duetoawaterleak)thentheresultantdip

insensorthroughputmayjeopardizetimelycompletionoftheproject.RiskType: Threat Owner: UlrichHeintzWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ES&HProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Probability=20%isapproximatelyestimatedfrom2sites*10%persite.ThisisbasedonexperiencefromoriginalCMStracker,originalpixel,andPhase1pixelwhereoneincidentoccurredinO(10)sites.Ifonecenterhasamajorequipmentfailurethesecondcentercanpickuptheadditionalloadwithinthe100%cushion.Min/likely/maxdelay=1/2/4monthsdelayfortheinefficiencyinthelogisticstotransfermaterialsandpeoplebackandforth.Min/likely/maxrepairestimateis10/25/40k$.Thisassumesinsurancewillcoverloss/damageofmajorequipment.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$23k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$10k+1month*$23kburnrate=$33k.Likelycost=$25k+2months*$23kburnrate=$71k.Maxcost=$40k+4months*$23kburnrate=$132k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: ThisisimplementedastwoindependentriskeventsforthetwoQCsites(BrownandRochester).Ateachsite,3tasksareimpactedinacorrelatedway,representingtheQCworkonthe3sensortypes.TheimpactismodeledinthemiddleoftheQCwork(Lot5).

Startdate: 1/Apr/2020 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: Havingtwositesisalreadyahedgeagainstthecompletestoppageofsensortesting,andshouldonesitebecometemporarilyinoperable,sensorsw

ouldberedirectedtotheothersitetemporarilytomitigatetheimpact.RiskResponses: Sensorscanbedivertedtotheunaffectedsitetoutilizeitsfullthroughput,andadditionalresourcesaddedtoincreasemoduleproduction

throughputatbothsites(oncetheaffectedoneisre-established)toregaintimeintheschedule.Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-09-DOT-MaPSAyieldislowerthanexpected

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfMaPSAyieldislowerthanexpected,theadditionalwastagealsosacrificestheassociatedsensorsandMPAchips,whichwouldneedtobereplaced

attheproject'scost.RiskType: Threat Owner: RonLiptonWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/QualityProbability(P): 15% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrange

Minimum =370k$Mostlikely =k$Maximum =640k$Mean =505k$P*<Impact> =76k$

BasisofEstimate: Foreachlossof10%inyield,wewouldneed10%moresensors,estimatedat245k,and10%moreMPAchips,estimatedat125k.Therangecoverswastagebetween10and20%.ImplementedbetweenTestingbatch3andVendorproducingbatch5.

CauseorTrigger: Amyriadnumberofproblemsatthebumpbondingstagemightreducetheyield,orhandlingduringtheassembly.

ImpactedActivities: IncreasedwastageduringtheMaPSAassemblywouldrequireadditionalcomponents,namelyPSsensorsandMPAchips

Startdate: 2/Sep/2021 Enddate: 20/Sep/2023RiskMitigations: RiskResponses: Moredetails:

RT-402-2-10-DOT-VendorcannotperformMaPSAqualificationtests

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:2(M)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: MaPSAqualificationisdoneatthevendorsite.Thecurrentcostestimatemayincreaseconsiderablyifthevendorsdonothavetheproper

infrastructuretoqualifytheparts.RiskType: Threat Owner: RonLiptonWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ComplexityProbability(P): 33% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: QualificationofMaPSAsmayrequiresophisticatedprobingequipment,whichcancostupbetween200-600kforprocurement,installation,andcomissioningoftherequisiteequipment,potentiallyatseveralvendors.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: MaPSAprocurementcostswouldincrease.Implementedasacostincreaseafterround2ofMaPSAprototyping.

Startdate: 1/Jan/2019 Enddate: 14/Jun/2023RiskMitigations: RiskResponses: Workwithvendortoimprovetheirinfrastructureormovetestingtodifferentsite(othervendororcollaborator)Moredetails:

RT-402-2-11-DOT-MaPSAbumpbondingcostincreases

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:3(H)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: CurrentlywehaveseveralMaPSAestimates,withaverybroadrangebetweenhighandlow,indicatingtheindustrydoesnotgiveaclearindication

oftheactualcost.Thisriskistocoverthepossibilitythatthishighcostitemexceedsthenominalestimateuncertainty,M5atthemoment.RiskType: Threat Owner: RonLiptonWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: CurrentlywehaveseveralMaPSAestimates,withaverybroadrangebetweenhighandlow,indicatingtheindustrydoesnotgiveaclearindicationoftheactualcost.Thisriskistocoverthepossibilitythatthishighcostitemexceedsthenominalestimateuncertainty,M5atthemoment.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: ThecostsofMaPSAbumpbondingwouldincrease,increasingthecostsofPSmodulefabrication.

Startdate: 1/Jan/2019 Enddate: 14/Jun/2023RiskMitigations: Prototypeswillbeusedtovalidatelowbidders,forwhichthereisnotyetconfidenceofdeliveringwithrequisitequality.Thereismoreconfidence

forhighcostbidders,whichwillalsobevalidatedintheprototypingphase,buteventherethequotesarestillpreliminary.RiskResponses: Moredetails:

RT-402-2-14-DOT-Systemtesthardwarehasinsufficientcapacity

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifunforeseenproblemsoccurduringassemblyandtesting,thenthebaselinetestingsystemsmaynotbesufficienttomaintaintherequired

throughput.Thiswouldnecessitatetheprocurementandcommissioningofadditionaltestsystemsandadditionallabourfortesting.

RiskType: Threat Owner: AnadiCanepaWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ReliabilityorPerformanceProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Themaximumcostimpactcorrespondstoascenarioinwhichthecapacityofalltheproductiontestsystems(totalcostabout$200k)needstobedoubled,i.e.acostimpactof$200k.Theminimumandlikelycostsreflecttheneedtoduplicatepartsofthetestsystems.Themin/likely/maxscheduleimpactof2/3/4monthsisestimatedassumingthattheproblembecomesapparentduringproduction.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$23k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Minimpact=$25k+2months*$23k/month=$71k.Likelyimpact=$100k+3months*$23k/month=$169k.Maximpact=$200k+4months*$23k=$292k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Moremoduletestingequipmentwouldberequired,possiblymorecoldboxes,singlemoduletesting,orhybridtestingequipment.ImplementedasacostimpactonFNALPSmoduleproduction,A,EastCoastPSModuleproduction(B),FNAL2SModuleProduction(C),andEastCoast2Smoduleproduction(D).Sitesshouldbedelayedthesameamount,buttheprobabilityshouldbesplitevenlybetweenPS(A,C)and2S(B,D)

Startdate: 1/Jan/2022 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: Thetestinghardwareisanexternaldeliverable.WewillmonitortheprogressoftheUSCMSmoduleproductionandensurethatnewtesting

equipmentispurchasedwhennecessaryanddeliveredwhentheproductionrateisincreasedtomeettheschedule.Labourisincreasedaccordinlytosupportthehigherproductionrate.

RiskResponses: Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-23-DOT-Vendorisunabletoproducesensorstospecifications

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:3(H)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfvendorisunabletoproducesensorsthatmeetCMSSpecificationthentheadditonalcostanddelayofidentifyinganewvendorjeopardizesthetimelyandon-

budgetcompletionoftheprojectRiskType: Threat Owner: UlrichHeintzWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 3(H)-extremelysubstandardorKPPinjeopardyCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Iftheselectedvendorisunabletoproducesensorstospecificationsanewvendorhastobedeveloped.Ataminimumthiswillrequireanotherpreproductionrun(6monthdelay).Atamaximumonetotwoprototyperunsmayalsoberequired(12monthsdelay).TheburnratefortheentireOuterTrackeris$70k/month(CMS-doc-13481).WeassumehalfoftheOTscopeisimpactedbyadelayfromthisrisk,therebyincurringaburnrateof$35k/month.Minimpact=nodirectcostincrease.Burnrate=6*$35k=$210k.Likelyimpact:costincreaseiscoveredbythe30%sensorestimateuncertainty.Burnrate=9*$35k=$315k.Maximpact:theworstcasescenariobasedoninformalcostinformationreceivedduringthemarketsurveyisanincreaseinthecostofthesensorsby2/3=66%.30%arecoveredbythecostuncertainty.Theadditionalcostof36%ofthe$6.5Msensorpurchaseis$2.3M.Burnrate=12*$35k=$420k.Total=$2,720k.Wehaveidentifiedavendor(HPK)whohasalreadyproducedsensorsofalltypesthatsatisfyourspecifications.TogetherwiththehistoricallyreliableperformanceofHPKitisveryunlikelythatthisthreatwilloccur.WearenotawarethatHPKhaseverfailedtoproducesensorstospecificationsafterapurchasewasnegotiated.Hencetheprobabilityisconsideredtobelow.

CauseorTrigger: Sensorsdeliveredbyvendoraresubstandardandvendorisunabletofixtheproblem.

ImpactedActivities: SensorproductionandQC.Costriskisimplementedasasinglerisk.Scheduleriskisimplementedasthreeseperaterisks(probabilitydependsonsensortype).Therearethreeriskhooksforthethreesensortypes,butbecause2SandPS-saresimilar,wouldsplittheprobability:1%forPS-s(hookA),2%for2S(hookC),2%forPS-p(hookB).Note:PRAdoesnotsupportfractionsofpercent.

Startdate: 1/Apr/2020 Enddate: 3/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: CERNiscarryingoutamarketsurveytoidentifypossiblevendors.CompaniesareselectedbasedontheircapabilitytoproducesensorsthatsatisfyCMS

specificationsandtoproduceallthesensorsneededbyCMSandATLASwithinatwo-yearperiod.CompanieshavetobequalifiedbyproducingprototypesensorstoCMSspecifications.Thisminimizestheprobabilitythattheselectedcompanycannotdelivertheorder.

RiskResponses: Anewvendorhastobeidentifiedandproductionrestarted.Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-24-DOT-Problemwithmodulemechanicalpartsvendor

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Majorproblemswiththevendorofmechanical(bridges,spacers,etc)partsformodulesRiskType: Threat Owner: LeonardGSpiegelWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: Probability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Minimumimpact:noextracostnordelayMaximumimpact:significantdelayscausingastandingarmycostof$324k(54k/monthmoduleassemblylaborburnratefor6months).Theburnrateisassumedtobe1/3timesthetotalmoduleassemblylaborcostof5Mduringtheproductiondividedbytheproductionintervalof31months.The1/3assumesthatacertainfractionofthelaborforceiseithermatrixedouttootherareasorcanadvancesomeoftheotheractivitieswhilewaitingforparts.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Implementedasadelaybetweenbatch3and4ofAL-CFspacerproductionfor2S(A)andPS(B),probabilityshouldbesplitbetweenthetwo.

Startdate: 1/Apr/2020 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: Vendorqualificationwillprovidesomeexperiencewithreliability,andthecontractwillincludescheduleexpectations.RiskResponses: IncreasedresourcesforlaborandinfrastructuretoparallelizedownstreamactivitiesinModuleAssemblyandPlank/LayerAssemblytorecoup

delaysMoredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-25-DOT-Moduleassemblyyieldislow

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IftheyieldfromModuleAssemblyislowerthanexpected,thentheadditionalresourcesneededtocompensatejeopardizeprojectscheduleand

budgetRiskType: Threat Owner: LeonardGSpiegelWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: Probability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Minimum:nocostimpact,nodelay.Likely:nodelay.40k$isthecostofadditionallabourandadditionalcomponents.Maximum:240k$isthecostofadditionallabourandadditionalcomponents.6monthdelay:timetodiagnosetheproblemandimprovethemoduleassemblyprocedure.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: ImplementedasaRiskHookbetweencompletionof2S/PSModulesBatch3(assumingthatiswhenyouassesstheyield)andMechanicalAssemblyofBatch5(Batch4isinprogress).ShareprobabilityequallybetweenPS(hookA)and2S(hookB).

Startdate: 1/Apr/2020 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: ExtensiveprototypingshouldmitigatetheriskofoverestimatedyieldsinModuleassembly.RiskResponses: AdditionalresourcesbothtocompensatefortheloweryieldandfurtherparallelizetheassemblyproceduretoregainschedulewouldbeneededMoredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-33-DOT-Morepreproductionmodulesneeded

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:2(M)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifmorepre-productionmodulesareneededtoqualifytheproductioncomponentsandassembly,thentheremaybecostincreasesanddelays.RiskType: Threat Owner: MeenakshiNarainWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: Probability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Additionallabour:22k/monthandadditionalmechanicalcomponents10k/month.Total=6months*($22k+$10k)=$192k.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$23k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Totalmaximpact=$192k+6*$23k=$330k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Modulepreproductionactivitieswouldstretchanadditional3months.Implementedasahooksbetween2S(hookB)orPS(hookA)PreproductionModuleAssemblyactivitiescompleteand2S/PSReadyforproduction.Shareprobabilityequally.

Startdate: 1/Apr/2020 Enddate: 31/Dec/2020RiskMitigations: Preproductionactivitiesareadequatelyestimatedassumingnomajorproblemsarise,afterextensiveprototypingRiskResponses: Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-35-DOT-Temporarylossofmoduleassemblyfacility

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:4(H);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfaModuleAssemblyfacilitytemporarilybecomesinoperableduetolossofcriticalequipmentorActofGod,thentheresultantdipinmodule

throughputmayjeopardizetimelycompletionoftheprojectRiskType: Threat Owner: MeenakshiNarainWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: Probability(P): 50% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

Minimum =k$Mostlikely =50k$Maximum =k$Mean =50k$P*<Impact> =25k$

BasisofEstimate: Itisassumedthatin1monththeequipmentwouldbereplacedandassemblycouldthenproceedattheaffectedsite.Riskimpactisestimatedfrom1/2ofthemodulelaborburnrate($84k/month)plusanestimateof$8ktomakeemergencyrepairs.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Allassemblyactivitiesattheaffectedsite.ImjplementedasahookbetweenPS/2Smechanicalassemblyofsubsequentbatches(notethoseshouldbecorrelated-ifyoucannotbuildPS,youalsocannotbuild2S)atFermilab(B,D)andBrown(A,C)

Startdate: 1/Apr/2020 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: Havingtwositesisalreadyahedgeagainstthecompletestoppageofmoduleproduction,andshouldonesitebecometemporarilyinoperable,

componentscouldberedirectedtotheothersitetemporarilytomitigatetheimpactRiskResponses: Modulecomponentscanbedivertedtotheunaffectedsitetoutilizeitsfullthroughput,andadditionalresourcesaddedtoincreasemodule

productionthroughputatbothsites(oncetheaffectedoneisre-established)toregaintimeinthescheduleMoredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-43-DOT-Problemwithcarbonfibervendor

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfthereisaproblemwiththeCarbonFibervendorthentherecouldbedelaysorcostincreases.Examplesofproblemsinclude:vendorgoingoutof

business,vendordeliveringsubstandardCF,orthevendorcannotdeliveraccordingtotheagreedschedule.

RiskType: Threat Owner: StefanGruenendahlWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Minimumimpact:theproblemisrelativelymodestandissolvedbythevendorwithin1monthswithoutanydirectcostimpacttotheproject.Likelyimpacts:theproblemismoresignificantandrequiresadditionalprototypeswiththevendorresultinginadelayof3monthsandacostof$10kforCFandmachining.Maximumimpact:ifweneedtoswitchvendorwewouldneedtoqualifyascondvendorresultingina6monthdelay.Thecostincreasecouldbe$20kforprototypingandsetupcostswiththenewvendor.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$23k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$0k+1month*$23kburnrate=$23k.Likelycost=$10k+3month*$23kburnrate=$79k.Maxcost=$20k+6months*$23kburnrate=$158k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Carbonfiberbasedstructuresinbothmodulemechanicsandflatbarrelmechanics.Implementedasadelayinprocurementforproductionplanks(hookA)andspacers(hookB).

Startdate: 1/Jan/2019 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: Prototypingexperienceinthenexttwoyearsshouldresultinareliablecostestimateofthenecessarycarbonfiberforbothmoduleandflatbarrel

structures.RiskResponses: Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-46-DOT-Problemwithcarbonfoamvendor

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:2(M)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfthereisaproblemwiththeCarbonFoamvendorthentherecouldbedelaysorcostincreases.Examplesofproblemsinclude:vendorgoingoutof

business,vendordeliveringsubstandardCarbonFoam,orthevendorcannotdeliveraccordingtotheagreedschedule.RiskType: Threat Owner: StefanGruenendahlWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$23k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Minimumimpact:theproblemisrelativelymodestandissolvedbythevendorwithin1monthswithoutanydirectcostimpacttotheproject.Costimpact=1month*$23k/month(burnrate).Likelyimpacts:theproblemismoresignificantandrequiresadditionalprototypeswiththevendorresultinginadelayof6monthsandacostof$20kforCarbonFoamandtechnicalwork.Totallikelyimpact=$20k+6*$23k=$158k.Maximumimpact:ifweneedtoswitchvendorwewouldneedtoqualifyasecondvendorresultingina12monthdelay.Thecostincreasecouldbe$120kforincreasedvendorcosts,prototypingandsetupcostswiththenewvendor.Totallikelyimpact=$120k+12*$23k=$396k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: FabricationofthecarbonfoamstructuresinMechanics-implementedasadelayinthecarbonfoamprocurementforproductionplanks.

Startdate: 1/Jan/2019 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: RiskResponses: JoinwiththerestoftheLHCcommunityinseekingoutanewvendorofCarbonFoamMoredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-54-DOT-Mechanicsmaterialsdegradedbyradiation

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifthemechanicalmaterialsaresusceptibletointegritydegradationduetoradiationexposure,theresultingmaterialmodificationsanddesign

changesjeopardizetimelycompletionoftheflatbarrel.RiskType: Threat Owner: StefanGruenendahlWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/QualityProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Totalcostofthematerialsinvolvedisabout$300k(MandS)and$220kinlabortomaketheproductionplanks(x80)andrings(x6).Itisassumedthatanyproblemsarefoundearlyinthemechanicsproductionsuchthatthelikelycostimpactisabout10oftheMandSandlabor:min/likely/max=25/50/75k$andadelayof1/2/3months.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$23k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$25k+1months*$23kburnrate=$48k.Likelycost=$50k+2month*$23kburnrate=$96k.Maxcost=$75k+3months*$23kburnrate=$144k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Plankandringfabricationwouldbedelayed.Startdate: 1/Jan/2019 Enddate: 1/Apr/2021RiskMitigations: AllmaterialsandassemblieswillberadiationtestedintheprototypingphaseRiskResponses: Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-57-DOT-Majorfailureoflayerassemblyinfrastructure

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifthereisalongertermnon-availabilityofFNALCO2system,survey/alignmentequipment,autoclave/oven,etc,thenthesubsequentdelayuntila

alternativeisinoperationjeopardizestimelycompletionoftheflatbarrelRiskType: Threat Owner: StefanGruenendahlWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ExternalRisk/FacilitiesProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Estimateweneedmin/likely/max=2/4/6monthstocompleterepairsorprocurereplacementatacostofmin/likely/max=10/20/30k$.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$23k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$10k+2months*$23kburnrate=$56k.Likelycost=$20k+4month*$23kburnrate=$112k.Maxcost=$40k+6months*$23kburnrate=$178k.

CauseorTrigger: majorcomponentfailure(e.g.pump,accumulator) ImpactedActivities: Implementedasthreeriskhooks,oneeachforInner(hookA),Middle(hookB),andOuter(hookc)Layerassembly,delaybetweenstartmilestoneandactualassembly.Suggestsplittingtheprobabilityequally.

Startdate: 13/Jun/2017 Enddate: 31/Dec/2025RiskMitigations: monitorsystemperformance&performregularmaintenance

RiskResponses: repairsystem;buyreplacement(mobile)systemMoredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-58-DOT-DamagetoFlatBarrelPlanks

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifanaccidentdamagesaflatbarrelcomponent(e.g.aplankoranendring)thenrepairworkwouldcauseadelayandcostincrease.Thedamage

couldbepurelyphysical(e.g.thecomponentsarecrushed),chemical(e.g.watercontamination),orotherhazard.RiskType: Threat Owner: StefanGruenendahlWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ManagementRisk/LogisticsProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 3(H)-extremelysubstandardorKPPin

jeopardyCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: MinimumImpact:thephysicaldamageisnotpermanentandonlyreworkisneededtoeffectarepair.Theestimateddelayis1monthatacostof2FTE-monthsofengineeringorabout$30k.Minimpacttotal=$30k.Likelyimpact:OneentireLayer2plank(plusassociatedmodules)needstobereplacedincludingabout11modulesmaximum(11*$5k=$55k).Tothisisaddedthemechanicscostandlabor(about10hoursperplank)foratotalofabout$6k.Thedelayis1month(assumingthatmodulesareavailable).Likelyimpacttotal=$30k+$55k+$6k=$91k.Maximumimpact:thedamageiscatastrophicforaLayer3plank,includingabout15modules(15*$5k=$75k).Tothisisaddedthemechanicscostandlabor(about10hoursperplank)foratotalofabout$6k.Thedelayis2month(assumingthatmodulesareavailable).Likelyimpacttotal=$60k+$75k+$6k=$141k.Theriskoccurslateinthescheduleandhencedoesnothaveasignificantburnratefromescalation.Thestandingarmycosts(theyarenotidle!)areincludedinthelaborcostsabove.

CauseorTrigger: Damagetoaplankduringplankassemblyorduringlayerassemblyortransport.

ImpactedActivities: ImplementedasadelaybetweenQCtestingofInner,Middle,andOuterLayer(whicheverislast)andmilestoneofcompletionofFlatBarrel

Startdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: Plankhandlingproceduresaredesignedtoreducedamageduetohandling.Transportenclosuresaredesginedtominimizerisktodetector.RiskResponses: Thedamagedplankwouldneedtobereplaced,increasingbothtimeandlabordependingontheextentofthedamageMoredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-2-59-DOT-DamagetoFlatBarrelLayer

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:3(H)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifanaccidentdestroysamajorflatbarrelcomponent(i.e.awholelayer)thenrepairworkwouldcauseadelayandcostincrease.Thedamagecould

bepurelyphysical(e.g.thecomponentsarecrushed),chemical(e.g.watercontamination),orotherhazard.RiskType: Threat Owner: StefanGruenendahlWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: Probability(P): 1% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Costtorebuildanentirelayerusingplanksat$6klaborperplankandmodulesat$5k/module,foreitherLayer1(minimalrisk),Layer2(likelyrisk)orLayer3(maximumrisk).ThecosttoreplacethemodulesforLayer3(assumingthetotalnumberofsparesneededbyCMSremainsthesame)=540*$5k=$2.7M(includingM&Sandmoduleassemblylabor).Thecostforthemechanicsofalayerisabout$150k(1/3ofthetotal).Laborcostestimate(plankconstruction+modulemounting)rangesfrom200k$(layer1)to400k$(layer3)or$300konaverage.Maximumdirectcostimpact=$3.15M$.Layers1and2scaledaccordingly.

CauseorTrigger: catastrophicdamagetoamajorityofcomponentsofaFlatBarrellayer.

ImpactedActivities: ImplementedasadelaybetweenQCtestingofInner,Middle,andOuterLayer(whicheverislast)andmilestoneofcompletionofFlatBarrel

Startdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: DesignandenforcementofFlatBarrelhandlingandtransportprocedures,anddesignofFlatBarrellayertranportenclosures.

RiskResponses: rebuildplanksusingsparemodules,andreassemblelayer.

Moredetails:

RT-402-2-60-DOT-Problemswithwirebonding

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:5(VH);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: TemporarylossofabondingmachineatFNAL,Princeton,orRutgers.Whiletherepaircostsarecoveredtherewouldbeadditionalexpensesinthe

hold-upofmoduleassemblyuntilthemachineisrepairedortheworkloadcouldberebalance.RiskType: Threat Owner: LeonardGSpiegelWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ReliabilityorPerformanceProbability(P): 80% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrange

Minimum =13.5k$Mostlikely =k$Maximum =27k$Mean =20k$P*<Impact> =16k$

ScheduleImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrangeMinimum =1monthsMostlikely =monthsMaximum =2monthsMean =1.5monthsP*<Impact> =1.2months

BasisofEstimate: Probabilityisassumedtobe20%permachine(fourmachines:twoatFNAL,oneatPrinceton,oneatRutgers)soroughly80%probabilityintotal(thenumberthatisusedinriskranking).IntheMCtheprobabilityistreatedas4independenteventseachwithP=20%.BasedonaModuleAssemblymonthlylaborburnrateof$54kandtheassumptionthatasinglewirebonderfailsoverthecourseoftheproductionperiod,thusaffecting1/4ofthemoduleassembly(burnrate=$54k/4=$13.5kpermonth).Thisismodeledasadelayof1-2monthsinwirebondingateachof3sitesindependently,bothforPSand2Smodules(correlated).

CauseorTrigger: Failureofawirebonder,forexamplefromthecrashofabondinghead. ImpactedActivities: WirebondingandallOTmoduleassemblyactivitiesthataredownstreamofbonding.IntheMCtheprobabilityistreatedas4independentriskeventswithP=20%each--oneperbondingmachine.

Startdate: 20/Dec/2021 Enddate: 2/Aug/2024RiskMitigations: Withtimethebondingloadcanberebalancedamongstthe3bondingfacilities.Itmaybepossibletopayforexpeditedservicefromthebonding

machinevendors.RiskResponses: Understandhowquicklyamachinecanbebroughtbackintoservice.Moredetails:

RT-402-2-90-DOT-KeyOuterTrackerpersonnelneedtobereplaced

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:2(M)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Keyengineerorseniortechnicianwithspecialknowledgeleavestheprojectandneedstobereplaced.Ifthetransitioncanbemanagedsuchthattheincomingand

outgoingpersonneloverlapandexchangeknowledge,thenthereismainlyalaborcostimpact.Ifthetransitionismoreabrupt,thenthereisnocostimpactofoverlappingpersonnelbuttherecanbeadelaytotheprojectactivitiesastheincomingpersongetsfullyuptospeed.Thisriskdoesnotincludetheriskoflosingkeymanagersbecausetheprojectensuresthateachmanagerhasawell-traineddeputy.

RiskType: Threat Owner: StevenC.NahnWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: hisL2areahas5seniortechnicalstaffwhosefunctionsareparticularlyhardtoreplaceonashorttimescalebyexistingteammembers:4seniorengineersand1seniortechnician.ExperienceintheCMSPhase1Upgradeprojectsuggeststheprobabilityperkeypersonisroughly25%(probabilitytheyleaveduringtheentireproject).Someinputnumberstothecostimpactanalysis:--Laborcostperperson=$15k/month(fullyburdenedseniorenginer=$185k/year).--AverageburnrateperL3areais=$23k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Minimumscenerio:personleavingisreplacedbyanexistingskilledpersonintheteam.1monthoffulloverlapcosting$15koflabor.Noscheduledelay.Likelyscenario:personleavingisreplacedbyapersonlessfamiliarwiththespecificwork.3monthsmanagedoverlapoftheoutgoingandincomingpeoplecosts3*$15k=$45koflabor.Noscheduledelay.Maximumscenario:personleavesunexpectedlywithnotransferofknowledge.Ittakesabout6monthstofindanewpersonandgetthemfullyuptospeed.Thereislossofproductivityduringthisdifficulttransitionperiodresultinginanet3monthdelaytoL3activities.Costoframp-upeffortofthenewperson(learningbutnotfullycontributingtodeliverables)=3FTE-months*$15k=$45k.Theburnratecostis3*$23k=$69k.Totalcostimpact=$114kTotalfor5persons:Min/Likely/Maxcostimpact=5*$(15/45/114)k=$(75/225/570)$.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: EachkeypersonsisindependentlymodeledintheMC(eachatP=25%andwithcorrespondingshareofthetotalcostimpact).Typicallyhooktherisktothepersonsmainactivityduringtheproductionphase(maximumconsequences).

Startdate: 1/Jan/2018 Enddate: RiskMitigations: Anumberofengineersandtechnicianshaveoverlappingskills,bothwithinagiveninstituteandacrossUS-CMSinstitutes.Thisprovidessomebackupincaseof

non-availabilityofakeyperson.Pro-activecross-trainingofengineersandtechnicianshelpsensurekeyskillsarenotcompletelylostifakeypersonisnolongeravailable.

RiskResponses: Aimforoutgoingandincomingpersonneltooverlapifpossibletoensureasmoothtransition.Hirefromskilledmembersoftheteamifappropriate.Interimsupportmaybepossibleusingengineersortechnicainsfromelsewhereintheinstituteorproject.

RT-402-2-91-DOT-ShortfallinOuterTrackerscientificlabor

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:3(H)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifasignificantamountofthe(uncosted)scientificlaborisunavailable,thentheprojectwouldthenneedtofundadditional(costed)personnelto

performthework.Itisassumedthattheriskistriggeredbyaseriouslyunfavorableoverallbaseprogramfundingsituation.RiskType: Threat Owner: StevenC.NahnWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 30% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: InthepastUS-CMShasnotexperiencedasignificantlackofscientificlabor(postdocsandgraduatestudents).WhenshortfallsoccuredtheywereusuallyresolvedbycollaboratorsatUS-CMSinstitutesorsometimesfromiCMS.Weassigna30%probabilitythatasignificantshortfalloccursinfuture,duetounfavorablefundingconditionsinthebaseprogram.ThecontributedlaborforthescopeofthisL2areais60.8FTE-yearsspreadoverabout5years.ThisdoesnotincludethemoresecureL2andL3managerswhoaretenuredfacultyandseniorFermilabscientists.Weestimatethelosscouldbeupto20%ofthetotalcontributedlaboror12.2FTE-years(e.g.thisisalossof50%ofallcontributedlaborforatwoyearperiodoralossof1/3ofthecontributedlaborfor3years).Themissinglaborcouldbereplacedbycostedpersonnel:amixtureofmid-rangetechnicians,juniortechnicians,orundergraduatescostingrespectively62$/hr,50$/hrand18$/hrfully-burdened(43$/houronaverage).Allowingforfouryearsofescalationat3.1%perannumyieldsanaveragecostof49$/hror86k$/FTE-year(1768hrsworkedperyear).The(min/likely/max)costimpactistherefore:86k$perFTE-year*(0/0/12.2)FTE-years=$(0/0/1049)k.

CauseorTrigger: Theriskistriggeredbyanunfavorablebaseprogramfundingsituation. ImpactedActivities: Startdate: 1/Oct/2018 Enddate: RiskMitigations: Workwithinstitutesandagenciestoensuretheanticipatedamountofscientificlaborwillbeavailable.Whereshortfallslooklikelytooccur,seek

alternativesamongstotherUS-CMSinstitutesorevenfromiCMSinstitutes.RiskResponses: Seekreplacementscientificlaborinotherinstitutes.Ifthislaborcannotbefoundthencontingencywillneedtobespenttosupplementtheeffort

withcostedlabor(e.g.technicians).Moredetails: CMS-doc-13509(FTEdataatCD1)

RT-402-4-01-DCE-AdditionalFEASICengineeringrunrequired

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:2(M)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: TheFEASICisnotaUSCMSdeliverable.TherequiredFEASICareexpectedtobereceivedfreeofchargefromtheinternationalprojectinexchange

fortheconcentratorASICsprovidedfortheelectromagneticsectionoftheCE(CE-E).However,theUS,alongwiththerestofthecollaboration,wouldshareaportionofthecostofanadditionalengineeringrunfortheFEASICbeyondthecurrentplannedtwoengineeringruns.Ifasignificantflawisobservedafterthesecondengineeringrun,athirdcyclemayberequired.Inthiscase,USASICengineeringresourcesmayberequiredtoconsult,validate,orfinalizesomespecificpartofthedesign.ThelikelyriskisaradiationeffectinthedigitalpartoftheASIC,sincethatpartofthechipwilllikelybecompletedlastandtheirradiationcampaignwillnotbecompleteduntilaftertheengineeringrun.

RiskType: Threat Owner: JeremiahMichaelMansWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/QualityProbability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: Cost:AssumefourmonthsofASICengineering($108k)and$60kMandSbasedona27%cost-sharefortheASIC=$168k.The27%fractionisthestandardUSCMScontributiontointernationalCMScommoncosts.Schedule:Aneight-monthdelaywouldbeincurred.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Somedownstreamactivitiesmayneedtobeacceleratedifdeemednecessarytocompleteproductiononschedule.Thecostassociatedwithsuchanaccelerationisnotincludedherebutincludedasaseparaterisk.Totalimpact=$168k+8months*$21kburnrate=$336k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: SiliconmodulePCBcompletion,siliconmoduleassembly,scintillatortile-moduleassembly,andcassetteassembly.

Startdate: 1/Jun/2020 Enddate: 1/Mar/2021RiskMitigations:

ManagerswillworkwithengineeringanddevelopmentteamtoprovidefullqualityassurancefortheASICdesignbeforeengineeringrunsoccur.Wehave1FTEofextraengineeringover2yearstoworkwithCERNandFEASICengineerstohelpvalidatetheFEASIC,inadditiontotheworkthatisneededtointerfacethechipintoUSCMSdeliverables.

RiskResponses: Somedownstreamactivitiesmayneedtobeacceleratedifdeemednecessarytocompleteproductiononschedule.Thecostassociatedwithsuchanaccelerationisnotincludedherebutincludedasaseparaterisk.

RT-402-4-02-DCE-Infrastructurefailureatmoduleassemblyfacility

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:2(M)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Asignificantfailurecouldoccurinamoduleassemblyfacilitywhichrendersitunabletooperateforsomeperiodoftime.Exampleswouldinclude

floodingofthefacilityorseveredamagetothegantrysystemusedforthegluingofmodules.RiskType: Threat Owner: ManfredPauliniWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: ExternalRisk/FacilitiesProbability(P): 30% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrange

ScheduleImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrangeMinimum =1monthsMostlikely =monthsMaximum =4monthsMean =2.5monthsP*<Impact> =0.8months

BasisofEstimate: Probability=30%for3sites.Probabilitypersite=10%,basedonexperiencefromoriginalCMStracker,originalpixel,andPhase1pixelwhereoneincidentoccurredinO(10)sites.Cost:Costforsufficientmodulestorecommissionthesystemandapossiblestanding-armycosttomaintaintheteamwhilerepairsarecarriedout.Assume40modulesforrecommissioningatacost(includinglabor)of$40k.Standingarmycostsareestimatedat$58k/month.Costsforrepairoffloodingareassumedtobecoveredbyinsurance,whilecostsforadamagedgantryareestimatedas25%oftotalreplacementcostor$64k.Totalof$100kto$336kdependingondamageanddelay.Schedule:delayof1to4months.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: IntheriskMCthisriskneedstobeduplicatedonceforeachcentre

Startdate: 1/Jan/2022 Enddate: 30/Sep/2023RiskMitigations: Mitigatescheduledelaysandstandingarmycostsbyusinguniformproceduresatallmoduleassemblysites.Theplanisconstructedtoallowsome

excesscapacityateachsite.RiskResponses: Inthecaseofaseriousfailure,somestaffandproductionworkcanbetransferredtotheothersites,possiblyaddingaweekenddaytotheshiftcycle.

Costsfortravelwouldbeincurred,assumedtobeatthelevelof$4k/month/technican.Moredetails:

RT-402-4-04-DCE-Concentratordoesnotmeetspecifications

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:3(H)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IftheconcentratorASICdoesnotmeetspecificationsaftertheproductionmasksareproducedthenanadditionalsetofmaskswillneedtobe

producedandadditionalengineeringeffortisrequiredtoadjustthedesignsothattheASICmeetspecifications.Theriskprobabilitydependsonhowmanyengineering/multi-projectwaferrunsaredoneandtestedbeforetheproductionmasksareproduced,andalsoontheexactmaturityofthedesign(progressmade),andontheschedule,e.g.ifallirradiationtestscanbedonebeforetheproductionmasksarefabricated.Thefullpackagingcostsarerealizedonlyoncesincewewouldfindtheproblembeforepackaging.ThemaskswillincludebothTRGandDAQchips.

RiskType: Threat Owner: JamesFHirschauerWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/RequirementsProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

ScheduleImpact: PDF =3-point-triangularMinimum =6monthsMostlikely =7.5monthsMaximum =9monthsMean =7.5monthsP*<Impact> =0.8months

BasisofEstimate: TheM&Scostis$690kformasksandwaferand$25kforasinglesetuptopackageafewchips.Thelaborcostfortheadditionalengineeringeffortisa3-pttriangularPDF:0.25-0.375-0.5FTE.Themin/likely/maxcostishence781/813/846k$.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$781k+6month*$21kburnrate=$907k.Likelycost=$813k+7.5months*$21kburnrate=$971k.Maxcost=$846k+9months*$21kburnrate=$1035k.

CauseorTrigger: ConcentratorASICasreturnedfromproductiondoesnotmeetspecificationdespitethetwopreviousmulti-projectwaferruns(MPWs)

ImpactedActivities:

Startdate: 30/Aug/2021 Enddate: 29/Aug/2022RiskMitigations: Thisriskismitigatedbyprototypingandtestingthefulldesignthroughtwomulti-projectwafersubmissions,andbydesignandproductionreviews.

TheASICsfromthesewillbeusedinfullverticalslicetests,aswellasbeamtestsandirradiationtests.RiskResponses: ToreducetheimpactduetothedelayofthisASICwewillneedtoimplementacombinationofthefollowing:acceleratetheproductionandtestingof

motherboards(MB)oncetheASICisavailable,andalsotheassemblyofcassettes;domoreassemblyandtestinginparallelforpiecesthatdonotrequiretheASIC(fortheMB),orthatdonotrequiretheMB,tominimizethetimetocompleteassemblyoftheMBandcassettes,andtominimizethetimeneededtofortests.

RT-402-4-09-DCE-ModulePCBbatchfailure

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Onebatchworth1000modulePCB'shaslowqualityyieldandisunusable.Thisriskcoversanumberofscenarioswheretheassembledmodule

PCB'sareunusable.ThiscouldincludeproblemsintheperformanceofthepartsorinthemodulePCBsorintheassemblyprocess,orinshippingorhandling.WeassumeallPCBswillberemadeandthepartsontheassembledPCBarelost.

RiskType: Threat Owner: ManfredPauliniWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 1(L)-somewhatsubstandardCostImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrange

ScheduleImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrangeMinimum =2monthsMostlikely =monthsMaximum =4monthsMean =3monthsP*<Impact> =0.2months

BasisofEstimate: Onebatchworth1000modulePCB'shaslowqualityyieldandisunusable.Costimpactis$102kand2-4monthdelay.Costincludestotalcostofpartsandassembly.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$102k+2months*$21kburnrate=$144k.Maxcost=$102k+4months*$21kburnrate=$186k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Moduleassemblyatmodulesassemblysites.

Startdate: 1/Oct/2019 Enddate: 2/Oct/2022RiskMitigations: Thedesign,andmodulePCBwillgothroughtwoprototypestagesandverticalslidetests,aswellasbeamtests.Theproductionpartswillgothrough

QC,andthevendorswillbequalifiedthroughtheprototypecycles.Costswillbemitigatedbywritingthepurchasecontractssoweonlypayforgoodparts.

RiskResponses: WewillneedtorequestadditionalfundsfromcontingencytopayforthereplacementassembledPCBsandwemayneedtoacceleratemoduleproduction,and/orcassetteproductionintheseareonthecriticalpath.

RT-402-4-10-DCE-Siliconsensorhaslowyield

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:2(M)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Siliconsensorsshowlessthananticipatedquality,orareunsableinsomeway.Thisriskismeanttocoveranumberofissuesthatcouldaffectthe

usabilityofthesensor,likehandling,QCprocessissues,radiationeffects,post-assemblyeffectsonleakagecurrents,andsingle-vendor-relatedproblems.Weuseaneffective10%yieldforthepurposeofquantifyingthisrisk.

RiskType: Threat Owner: ManfredPauliniWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 1% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrange

ScheduleImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrangeMinimum =2monthsMostlikely =monthsMaximum =4monthsMean =3monthsP*<Impact> =0.0months

BasisofEstimate: Usea10%yieldissuetoquantifythisrisk.Costimpactis500-700k$andadelayof2-4months.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$500k+2months*$21kburnrate=$542k.Maxcost=$700k+4months*$21kburnrate=$784k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Implementedbetween'deliveryofproductionsensorsbatch3'and'fabricationofproductionsensorsbatch4'

Startdate: 1/Oct/2019 Enddate: 1/Oct/2021RiskMitigations: Thedesignwillbeprototypestartingwithteststructuresandproceedingtofull-sizedsesnorsoffinaldesign.Testsofthesewithincludeirradiation

studiesandtestbeamstudies,aswellasassemblyintoprototypemodulesthatwillundergotwomajorsystemprototypesthatserveasverticalslicetests.Thecontractforthesensorswillhavefullspecificationstoensurewepayonlyforeventualgoodsensors,andwewillqualifyasecondvendorthathasthecapacitytofabricateatleastsomefractionofthesensors.Orderthesensorsasearlyaspossible.

RiskResponses: Requestadditionalfundingfromcontingencytopurchaseadditionalsensors.Activateasecondvendorifneeded.Acceleratedownstreamproductionifneeded.Uselessthanidealsensorsifneededinregionssotheydon'toverlapandthatwouldaffectlesstheperformanceofthecalorimeter.

Moredetails:

RT-402-4-13-DCE-HGCROCfrontendchipisdelayed

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IftheHGCROCfrontendchipdeliverydateisdelayedthentheassemblyofmoduleboardsandthereforetheassemblyofthemodulesgetsdelayed.

Thismayjeopardizethedeliveryofcassettesontime.ThisriskcanincludedelaysinanyoftheprototypeHGCROCchipsubmissionsbesidesthefinalproductionrun.

RiskType: Threat Owner: JeremiahMichaelMansWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: ExternalRisk/CollaboratorsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Themin/likely/maxdelaysareestimatedtobe1/6/12months.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Noadditioncostshavebeenassumeinthisriskentryforapossibleaccelerationofmoduleandcassetteproduction.TheseareincluidedasaseparateriskeventMincost=1month*$21kburnrate=$21k.Likelycost=6months*$21kburnrate=$126k.Maxcost=12months*$21kburnrate=$252k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Assemblyofmoduleboards.JM:Implementedbetween:(A)'vendorfabricatesHGROC'and'vendordeliversHGROC'forsilicon,and(B)'prepareandplaceorders'and'deliveryofHGROC-SiPM'forscintillator.LT:assumeburnratecostisequallysharedbetweenthesetwoitems.

Startdate: 1/Dec/2019 Enddate: 1/Dec/2020RiskMitigations: DevelopteststandssothatcomponentsthatdependontheHGCROCcanbetestedasmuchaspossibleusingemulatorsandolder/prototype/non-

productionversionsoftheHGCROCchip.IncludesignificantengineeringsothatwecanhelpverifyandvalidatetheprototypeandproductionHGCROCchipfunctionalityandqualityasquicklyaspossible.Useprototypeandpre-productionHGCROCchipsinthe2majorsystemprototypesforverticalslicetestsandinbeamtests,andirradiationstudies.Ensurethemoduleandcassetteproductionfacilitiesaresetuptobeabletoaccelerateproductionifneeded.

RiskResponses: HelpvalidateortesttheHGCROCchipsasquicklyaspossibletoreducethetestingtime.Acceleratedownstreamproduction(modulesandcassette)asneeded.

RT-402-4-14-DCE-Cassettecoolingplatefabricationfailure

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifcassettecoolingplatefabricationfailsspecificationintermsofflatness,locationoffeatures,orcoolingtubeperformancethentheassemblyofthe

cassettescannotproceedandmayjeopardizethedeliveryofassembledcassettestoCMS.RiskType: Threat Owner: ZoltanGecseWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: ManagementRisk/ExperienceorCapabilityProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrange

BasisofEstimate: Thecoolingplatemanufacturingprocesscontainsanon-standardoperationofembeddingacoolingtube.Thisisthereasonforanon-negligiblefailureduringproductionevenifthevendorqualificationwassuccessful.The3monthdelaywasestimatedasatimeneededtoshiftproductiontoanalternativevendororin-houseatFNAL.Thecostimpact($10k-$150k)isbasedontheassumptionofafailedbatchofcoolingplates,andusesFNALlaborratesforfabricationasifitisdonein-house.WehavenotyetqualifiedanexternalvendorsoFNALratesareassumedforcostestimes.Theentirecostofabatchisusedbecausethisriskcoversarangeofsourcesoffailuresthatmaynotbecoveredbythevendoror/andinatimelymanner.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$10k+3months*$21kburnrate=$73k.Maxcost=$150k+3months*$21kburnrate=$213k.Aburnrateisusedtocovertheriskthatwemaynotbeabletoscheduleproductionofcoolingplatesearlyenoughtoavoidbeingonthecriticalpath,orsomeotherdelaypushesthisintothecriticalpath.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: CassetteAssembly.Insertedbetweendeliveryofbatch1andfabricationofbatch2

Startdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 12/Dec/2023RiskMitigations: Thecassetteprototypingprogramalreadyunderwayaddressesissuesofmanufacturabilityofthecoolingplatesandexperiencegainedwillfeed

backtothedesign.Threeroundsofprototypecassettesareplannedpriortothestartofproduction.Qualifyseveralvendorsforcoolingplatefabricationsuchthattheycanpick-upproductionifonevendorfails.RequirearigorousQA/QCprogrambythevendor.Begincoolingplateproductioninadvanceofcassetteassemblytoensureabufferofcomponentssothatinterruptionofthesupplydoesnotaffectcassetteproduction.

RiskResponses: Workwithvendortofixproductionproblemsordistributeproductiontoothervendors,orfabricationin-houseatFNAL.Increasethecassetteassemblyrate,utilizingplannedbackupcapacityoftheassemblysites,toreducethescheduleimpact.Thecostofacceleratedcassetteproductioniscoveredbyaseparaterisk.

RT-402-4-15-DCE-Motherboardandinterfaceboardfabricationfailure

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Iflargerthanexpectedfailurerateisidentifiedduringmotherboardandinterfaceboardproductionthenthecassetteassemblywillslowdownand

mayjeopardizethedeliveryofcassettestoCMSontime.RiskType: Threat Owner: ZoltanGecseWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/QualityProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrange

BasisofEstimate: Thecostimpact(10-130k$)isbasedontheassumptionthatatmaximum10%ofthemotherboardsforthewholedetectorhavetobeproducedduetoMotherboardfailures.Thebasecostincludesanadditional10%sparemotherboardsontopofthatneededforthedetector.Thesesparespartlycovermoreminorfailuresandyieldofindividualcomponents,ormotherboardvariants,andmaynotcoveramoresignificantfailurecoveredbythisriskwheretheproductionmotherboardsaredoneintwobatches.Weassumeafailurescenariowhere10%ofthemotherboardswouldneedtobeproducedandassembledtoensurethatwehavesufficientsparestocoverlostedmotherboardsofanyofthevariantsbytheendoftheproduction.Thedurationimpact(3months)isbasedontheassumptionthatanothervendormightbeneededtobequalifiedtotakeovertheproduction,orsomespecificvariantshavetobemadeagainbeyondwhatwasorderedforspares.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$10k+3months*$21kburnrate=$73k.Maxcost=$130k+3months*$21kburnrate=$193k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Startdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 12/Dec/2023RiskMitigations: Thoroughlyqualifythedesignthroughthecassetteprototypeprogramand,asappropriate,focusedmockups.

Qualifyseveralvendorsforboardfabricationsuchthattheycanpick-upproductionifonevendorfails.RequirearigorousQA/QCprogrambythevendor.Beginmotherboardandinterfaceboardproductioninadvanceofcassetteassemblytoensureabufferofcomponentssothatinterruptionofthesupplydoesnotaffectcassetteproduction.Designcassetteassemblysitestoallowreworkwithoutinterruptingproductionflow.

RiskResponses: Dependingonthescheduleandwhichmotherboardvariantsneedtobereplacedwemayneedtoorderanewroundofmotherboardsandassembly.Ifotrherdelaysorthisdelaycausesthistasktobeonthecritcialpathwewillacceleratethecassetteproductionandtesting.Thepossibilityofneedingtoacceleratethecassetteproductioniscoveredbyaseparaterisk.

RT-402-4-16-DCE-Cassettesdamagedorlostinassembly,testingorshipping

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:2(M)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifacassettegetsdamagedduringassemblyorabatchof15cassettesgetdamagedduringcoldtestingorabatchof15cassettesgetlostduring

shipping,thenthelostcassettesneedtobefabricatedandassembledagain,whichmayjeopardizethedeliveryofcassettestoCMSontime.RiskType: Threat Owner: ZoltanGecseWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: ManagementRisk/ExperienceorCapabilityProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrange

BasisofEstimate: Thecostestimateisbasedonthecostoflosingupto15cassettes.Wewillbeassemblyingandtestinginbatchesof15,andshippingthemtoCERNinbatchesof15.Wecalculatethecostbysimplyrollingupthecostofproducing375cassettes,andtaking(15/375)ofthiscostforthemaximumcostimpact.Thecostofproducingandtestingallcomponents,includingsiliconmodulesandscintillatortile-modules,andthecostofcassetteassembly,testing,andshipping,areincluded.WedonotincludethecostofHGCROCandECONASICasenoughsparesareexpectedtobepurchasedsowedonotneedanadditionproductionrunofthesechips.Thedelaysisbasedonthetimeneededtoreplacethelostcassettes.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: LinkedtoShipcassettes331-360

Startdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 12/Dec/2023RiskMitigations:

Setinplacecarefullydesignedtoolingandsafehandlingprocedures.Donothandlemanycassettesatthesametime;limitnumberofcassettesinashipmentto15andnomorethanoneofeachtypepershipment.Plannedproductionincludes1sparecassetteofeachtype(forthetestbeamwedge).Ensureadequatequantityofsparepartstoallowrapidassemblyofreplacementcassettes.Ensurethatallshipmentsareadequatelyinsured.Contractstoincludeoptionsforlaterdeliveryofadditionalcomponents.

RiskResponses: Responsedependsontheexactlost,iflosinganentirebatchof15cassettesinshipping,ordamagingsomecassettesinabatch(es)duringhandlingintheassembly,testing,orshipping.Intheworstcaseoflosingall15cassettesinabatch,wewillorderadditionalpartsasneededandmaketheadditional15cassettes.The15testbeamwedgecassettesmaybeusedinthedetectorifthisisneededtgoavoidsignificantdelays.Asneededwewillacceleratethecassetteassemblyandtesting.Thecostofacceleratingthecassetteproductionisincludedinaseparateriskentry.

Moredetails:

RT-402-4-17-DCE-Cassetteassemblysitefailure

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfthecleanroomareaofthecassetteassemblysitegetsdamagedoriftheCO2coolingplantfailsthentheassemblyandtestingprocedurewillstop

untiltheproblemsarefixedanditmayjeopardizethedeliveryofcassettestoCMSontime.RiskType: Threat Owner: ZoltanGecseWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: ExternalRisk/FacilitiesProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =2-point-flatrange

BasisofEstimate: Theestimateisbasedontherangeofcostsneededtoreplacethedamagedequipment=10-100k$.The3monthdelayisestimatedbasedonthetimeitmaytaketofixtheproblems.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$10k+3months*$21kburnrate=$73k.Maxcost=$100k+3months*$21kburnrate=$163k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: JM:Insertedintoassemblybetween150and151

Startdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 12/Dec/2023RiskMitigations: Tomitigatetheimpactontheschedule,thecapacityoftheassemblyandtestingfacilityisplannedtotwicelargerthanrequiredfornormal

operations.RiskResponses: Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-4-18-DCE-AdditionalconcentratorASICengineering(MPW)runisrequired

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:4(H);Cost:2(M)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: CurrentplanningincludesthecostoftwoMulti-ProjectWafer(MPW)prototyperuns.Ifasignificantflawisobservedafterthesecondrun,athird

cyclemayberequired.Thisriskaddressestheneedanadditionalsinglerun(eitherDAQorTRG).

RiskType: Threat Owner: JamesFHirschauerWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/QualityProbability(P): 50% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: CurrentplanningincludesthecostoftwoMulti-ProjectWafer(MPW)prototyperuns.Ifasignificantflawisobservedafterthesecondrun,athirdcyclemayberequired.Thisriskaddressestheneedanadditionalsinglerun(eitherDAQorTRG).TheM&Scostsare$136kfortheMPWrunand$28kforpackaging.Thelaborcostforadditionaldesignworktofixtheobservedflawisa3-pttriangularPDF:0/0.17/0.5FTE.Itisassumedtheflawisfairlyeasytofixandtheexacttimeneededdependsonwhenwhentheissueisdiscovered,ifinthebeginning,middle,orendofthecycle.TheadditionaltestingisassumedtobemodestandcoveredbythelaborincludedforASICtestinginthebaseline.Themin/likely/maxcostishence164/209/295k$.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481),butthereare6monthsoffloatavailablebeforecassetteassemblyisaffected.therefore:Mincost=$164k+0=$164k.Likelycost=$209k+1.5months*$21kburnrate=$241k.Maxcost=$295k+3months*$21kburnrate=$385k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: JM:ImplementedinP6between'ECONp2testparts'and'ECONv1finalizedesign'

Startdate: 31/Aug/2020 Enddate: 30/Aug/2021RiskMitigations: Wewillworkcloselywithengineerstomakesurethattwoplannedengineering(MPW)runsaresufficient.Wewillbeusingsomecodeblocksfrom

thelpGBTthatwouldhaveundergonesometestingbeforethetwoMPWruns,andwewillbeincludingtheprototypeECONASICinamajorsystemprototypeverticalslicetestbeforetheproductionrun.

RiskResponses: RequestadditionalfundingforathirdMPWrunandfordesignchanges.Reducetheneededtestingtime.Accelerateorparallelizetheproductionofthemotherboardsifpossibleandifneededacceleratethecassetteassemblyandtesting.Thecostofacceleratingtheassemblyofcassettesiscoveredbyaseparaterisk.

RT-402-4-20-DCE-BoundarybetweenSiandscintillatorsectionsismoved

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifthecombinedperformanceofthescintillator+SiPMsystemcannotmeettheperformancerequirementsoftheproject,wemaybeforcedtomove

backtheboundarybetweenthesiliconandscintillatorsections.Weassumeheretheimpactisequivalenttomovingthefirstmixedlayerbackbyonelayer.

RiskType: Threat Owner: JeremiahMichaelMansWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/RequirementsProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: Estimatedasthecostoftwoadditionalall-siliconlayersminusthe(small)costofonelessscintillatorlayer.Weassumethatthedecisionismadeearlyenoughthatitwouldnothaveascheduleimpactsincetheassemblycenterswillhavesufficientcapacityforanyforeseenchange.,andwecanmakemodificationstothecoolingplatesintheshadowofothertasks.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Startdate: 29/Jan/2018 Enddate: 1/May/2020RiskMitigations: Performdetailedsimulationstudiestoensurewehaveanaccurateradiationmap.Doirradiationstudiesoftheperformanceofprototypesiliconand

scintillatordetectormodulestomakesuretheymeetrequirements.Dofulldetectorphysicsstudiestoensurefullunderstandingofthephysicsimpactoftheboundarychange.Setupmoduleassemblycenterstohavesufficientcapacityifextrasiliconmoduleshavetobeconstructed.Wedesignthecoolingplateandcoolingtuberouting,tile-modules,andmodule-to-motherboardconnectionsthatareflexibletohandleavariableboundaryfromonelayertothenext.

RiskResponses: Adjustbudget,andschedulestoproducemore/lesssiliconmodules,andcorrespondingless/morescintillatortile-modiules.Modifytheaffectedcoolingplateswiththecorrectmountingholes,andproducethemodifiednumberofeachtypeofmotherboards.

Moredetails:

RT-402-4-22-DCE-Additionalproductionaccelerationrequired

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifupstreamprojectdelaysabsorballfloatbeforeseriesproductionbeginsthenadditionalfundswouldberequiredtoaccelerateproductiontoavoid

jeoparizingtheinternationalneed-bydateRiskType: Threat Owner: JeremiahMichaelMansWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/RequirementsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Minimalcostimpactisbasedonaccelerationofmoduleproductionfrom120modules/weekto160modules/week.Thisrequiresastaffingincreaseof33%duringthisperiodwhichisbalancedbyadecreasedproductionperiod.Duetothelimitationsinhowquicklystaffcanbetrained,however,weassumethatthelaborlevelduringtheramp-upofproductionwouldbe100%insteadoftherampedprocessinthebaselineplan.(costsdeterminedfromP6tobe$564k)Maximalcostimpactincludesthemoduleproductionaccelerationandalsoincludeslabor(1FNALtechnicianfull-time=$113k)andinfrastructure(CO2plantenhancements=$100k)toacceleratethecassettetestingcapacityfrom2/dayto3/day.

CauseorTrigger: Primarycausesareadelayononeofthecriticalinputsforproduction:HGCROC,concentrator,siliconsensor,modulePCB,motherboards

ImpactedActivities:

Startdate: 15/Oct/2021 Enddate: 15/Jan/2023RiskMitigations: Activemanagementandcarefultrackingofmilestonesandacompleteprototype2validationofthesystemtoavoidsurprisesatthestartof

production.RiskResponses: Moredetails:

RT-402-4-23-DCE-SiMotherboardcomplexityismuchhigherthanexpected

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Thesiliconmotherboardisexpectedtoexistinseveralvarients(~5).Dependingondecisionsmadeelsewhereintheproject,thenumberofdesigns

couldincreasebyafactoroftwooreventen.Ifthisweretooccur,theunitcostformotherboardswouldincreaseandthedesigntimewouldalsosignificantlyincrease.

RiskType: Threat Owner: ZoltanGecseWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/InterfacesProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Lowendofcostrangeassumes6monthsofadditionalengineering($120k)andafactorof50%inunitcostincreaseforPCBsandassemblyonly($263k),whilehighendassumes12monthsofadditionalengineering($240k)andafactorof100%increaseinunitcostforPCBsandassembly($527k).Thescheduledelayassumesthattheissuesareidentifiedsufficientlyinadvancethatadditionalengineeringcanbebroughtontotheprojecttoavoiddelays.

CauseorTrigger: Triggeredbydesignchoiceswhichrequiresignificantadditionalmotherboarddesigns,separatefromcostuncertaintyinasingledesign.

ImpactedActivities:

Startdate: 1/Jan/2019 Enddate: 11/Dec/2020RiskMitigations: WorkingwithinternationalcollaboratorstoadjustdesignsofcassetteandmodulePCBtoavoidrequiringadditionaldesignstomeetoveralldesign

constraints.RiskResponses: Moredetails:

RT-402-4-90-DCE-KeyCalorimeterEndcappersonnelneedtobereplaced

RiskType: Threat Owner: JeremiahMichaelMansWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: ThisL2area5seniortechnicalstaffwhosefunctionsareparticularlyhardtoreplaceonashorttimescalebyexistingteammembers.ExperienceintheCMSPhase1Upgradeprojectsuggeststheprobabilityperkeypersonisroughly25%(probabilitytheyleaveduringtheentireproject).Someinputnumberstothecostimpactanalysis:Laborcostperperson=$15k/month(fullyburdenedseniorenginer=$185k/year).AverageburnrateperL3areais=$21k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Minimumscenerio:personleavingisreplacedbyanexistingskilledpersonintheteam.1monthoffulloverlapcosting$15koflabor.Noscheduledelay.Likelyscenario:personleavingisreplacedbyapersonlessfamiliarwiththespecificwork.3monthsmanagedoverlapoftheoutgoingandincomingpeoplecosts3*$15k=$45koflabor.Noscheduledelay.Maximumscenario:personleavesunexpectedlywithnotransferofknowledge.Ittakesabout6monthstofindanewpersonandgetthemfullyuptospeed.Thereislossofproductivityduringthisdifficulttransitionperiodresultinginanet3monthdelaytoL3activities.Costoframp-upeffortofthenewperson(learningbutnotfullycontributingtodeliverables)=3FTE-months*$15k=$45k.Theburnratecostis3*$21k=$66k.Totalcostimpact=$111kTotalfor5persons:Min/Likely/Maxcostimpact=5*$(15/45/111)k=$(75/225/555)$.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: EachkeypersonsisindependentlymodeledintheMC(eachatP=25%andwithcorrespondingshareofthetotalcostimpact).Typicallyhooktherisktothepersonsmainactivityduringtheproductionphase(maximumconsequences).Note:currentMCmodeltakescareofthetotalprobabilityandcostimpact.Butweshouldultimatelymodelthe5engineersindividuallyatappropriatepointsoftheschedule.

RT-402-4-91-DCE-ShortfallinCalorimeterEndcapscientificlabor

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:2(M)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifasignificantamountofthe(uncosted)scientificlaborisunavailable,thentheprojectwouldthenneedtofundadditional(costed)personnelto

performthework.Itisassumedthattheriskistriggeredbyaseriouslyunfavorableoverallbaseprogramfundingsituation.RiskType: Threat Owner: JeremiahMichaelMansWBS: 402.4CE-CalorimeterEndcap RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 30% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

RT-402-6-02-DTD-Boardorpartsvendornon-performance(DOE)

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifthevendorhasintermittentproblemsduringtheproductioncausingsub-standardbatchestobedeliveredthenpartsfrombatchNdonotmeet

electricalspecscausingadelayoforderonebatchlengthoranothervendorissought.Similarlyifthereissignificantvendordelaytoduetointernaltechnicalorinventoryproblems.TheriskisrepeatedperL3area.

RiskType: Threat Owner: JeffreyWBerryhillWBS: 402.6TD-TriggerandDAQ(DOE) RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Basedonpreviousdealingswithsimilarvendorsandeffectsfromproductionissues.Possiblecostincreasesduetonewvendorchoiceandadditionalprocurementofboardsandparts:Min/likely/maxcost=50/150/250k$for2/6/10newboardequivalents.Min/likely/maxdelay=1/3/6monthsforanotherproductionbatchorvendorselection.TheaverageL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$10k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$50k+1month*$10kburnrate=$60k.Likelycost=$150k+3months*$10kburnrate=$180k.Maxcost=$250k+6months*$10kburnrate=$310k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Procurementofproductionelectronics.ProbabilityissharedbetweenCaloTriggerandCorrelatorTrigger.

Startdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 1/Jan/2024RiskMitigations: Baselineboardproductionproceedsinwelldefinedsteps:(1)apreproductionofafewboardsensuresthatthequalityofthepartsprovidedbythe

vendormeetsthespecifications,(2)apilotproductionoffurtherensuresthatthequalityofthepartsprovidedbythevendormeetsspecifications,beforethefinalproductionisstarted.Thisphasedapproachprovidesreasonableassurancethatanyqualityperformanceissueswiththevendorwillbediscoveredandmitigatedbeforefullproductionbegins.

RiskResponses: Diagnosetheproblem.Ifasimpletechnicalfixisavailable,considerreordering.Ifnot,findanothervendor.Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-6-03-DTD-I/Operformancedoesnotmeetrequirements(DOE)

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IftheI/Orequirementsofatriggersubsystemchange,thusjeopardizingtheabilityofthetriggertoreceive/transmitalltriggerprimitivedata

from/tothesource/sinksystem.RiskType: Threat Owner: JeffreyWBerryhillWBS: 402.6TD-TriggerandDAQ(DOE) RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/RequirementsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: 10-30%upscopeofa100-boardproductiontomeetchangedrequirements,withmin/likely/maxcostof250/500/750k$.Scheduledelaysof3/5/7monthsduetotheacquisitionofmorebatches.TheaverageL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$10k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$250k+3month*$10kburnrate=$280k.Likelycost=$500k+5months*$10kburnrate=$550k.Maxcost=$750k+7months*$10kburnrate=$820k.

CauseorTrigger: Theinterfacebetweenthedetectorbackendelectronicsandthetriggersubsystemscouldchangetoaccomodateincreasedbandwidthrequirements.Thiscantaketheformofeithermorelinksorhigherlinkspeeds.Ifmorelinksarerequired,thiscouldcausethenumberofboardsrequiredtoabsorbthenumberoflinkstoincrease.Alternatively,ifthelinkspeedschange,thiscouldnecessitatenewopticaltransceiversontheboards,tomeetthenewlinkspeedrequirements.

ImpactedActivities: Productionprocurement,assembly,andtesting.ProbabilityissharedbetweenCaloTriggerandCorrelatorTrigger.

Startdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 1/Jan/2024RiskMitigations: Thebaselineincludesextralinkcapacityforalltriggersubsystems,toreasonabllyaccountforpossiblechangesinthenumberofinputlinkstothe

triggersubsystem.Thebaselinealsoincludesopticaltransceiversthatoperateacrossarangeof10-25Gb/slinkspeeds,allowingforreasonablechangesinlinkspeedinterfaces.

RiskResponses: (1)Attempttooptimise(reduce)thewordbitdefinitionofthereceivedortransmittedtriggerprimitivedata,sothatthetotalbandwidthin/outisconsistentwiththeI/Ocapacityoftheboard,whileattemptingtopreservethesciencegoals.(2)Increasethenumberofelectronicboardstomatchthenumberofinputlinks.

RT-402-6-04-DTD-Additionalboardredesignisrequired(DOE)

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Aprototypeorproductionbatchhasdesignflaws.RiskType: Threat Owner: JeffreyWBerryhillWBS: 402.6TD-TriggerandDAQ(DOE) RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ReliabilityorPerformanceProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: 2-10boardsat25keacharefoundtorequireatechnicalredesign.Min/likely/maxcost=50/150/250k$for2/6/10newboardprocurements.Min/likely/maxdelay=1/3/6monthsforredesignandprocurement.TheaverageL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$10k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$50k+1month*$10kburnrate=$60k.Likelycost=$150k+3months*$10kburnrate=$180k.Maxcost=$250k+6months*$10kburnrate=$310k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Designofnextprotoype/batch.ProbabilityissharedbetweenCaloTriggerandCorrelatorTrigger.

Startdate: 1/Jul/2017 Enddate: 1/Jan/2024RiskMitigations: BaselineboardR&Dandproductionproceedsinwelldefinedsteps:TherearetwoprototypedesignsduringtheR&Dphase.Ifthefirstprototype

doesnotmeettherequirements,thesecondprototypewillberedesignedtomeettherequirements,basedontheexperiencelearned.Ifthesecondprototypealsodoesnotmeettherequirements,aredesigncanbeincorporatedintothepreproductioncycles(involvingafewboards),whichprovidesreasonableassurancethattheproductionboardwillmeettherequirements.Ifthepreproductionboarditselfalsodoesnotcompletelymeetallrequirements,thepilot-productioncyclecanbeusedtotweakthedesignsothatallrequirementsaremetbeforegoingintofinalproduction.

RiskResponses: Ifaprototypeorpreproductionboarddoesnotmeettherequirements,redesigntheboardinthenextcyclesothatitdoesmeettherequirements.Moredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RT-402-6-05-DTD-Additionalfirmwaredevelopmentisrequired(DOE)

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Firmwaredoesnotmeettechnicalorscientificrequirementsattimeofmilestonereleases.RiskType: Threat Owner: JeffreyWBerryhillWBS: 402.6TD-TriggerandDAQ(DOE) RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ReliabilityorPerformanceProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 1(L)-somewhatsubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Anecessaryfirmwareblockrequires1/3/6monthsofreworkorredesign,withafirmwareengineerat0.5FTE.Nostandingarmycost(thereisnoidleworkforceintheeventofadelay).TheaverageL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$10k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=1month*$10kburnrate=$10k.Likelycost=3months*$10kburnrate=$30k.Maxcost=6months*$10kburnrate=$60k.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Prototypeandproductionfirmwarereleases.ProbabilityissharedbetweenCaloTriggerandCorrelatorTrigger.

Startdate: 1/Jul/2017 Enddate: 1/Jan/2024RiskMitigations: Infrastructureandalgorithmfirmwarearedevelopedincyclesandprogresstracked.Ifthetechnicalorsciencerequirementsarenotmetfora

particularmilestone,thisallowsengineerstomodifythefirmwaresothatitmeetsthetechnicalandsciencerequirementsinthenextcycle.Theuseofhigh-levelsynthesistoolsenablescientiststotranslatehigh-levelalgorithmsintofirmware,reducingthepotentialforinconsistenciesbetweenfirmwareandsoftwareemulation,aswellasreducingthepotentialtointroducebugsinthefirmwareimplementation,comparedwiththescientificintentofthealgorithm.

RiskResponses: (1)Ifthetechnicalorsciencerequirementsarenotmetforaparticularmilestone,thenallowtheengineerstomodifythefirmwaresothatitmeetsthetechnicalandsciencerequirementsinthenextcycle.(2)hireadditionalfirmwareengineering,eitherbyallocatingmoretimetoon-projectengineers,orhiringadditionalpersons.

Moredetails:

RT-402-6-06-DTD-BaselineFPGAdoesnotsatisfyrequirements(DOE)

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfthecomputationrequirementsofcalorimetertriggerandcorrelatorarenotsatisfiedbythebaselineFPGA,thenthesciencerequirementsare

jeopardized.RiskType: Threat Owner: JeffreyWBerryhillWBS: 402.6TD-TriggerandDAQ(DOE) RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ReliabilityorPerformanceProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: 12.5/25/50%FPGAcostincreaseon(36+48=)84FPGAsat12k/chipbasecost..Min/likely/maxcost=126/252/504k$.1/3/6monthsdelayforprocurement.TheaverageL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$10k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$126k+1month*$10kburnrate=$136k.Likelycost=$252k+3months*$10kburnrate=$282k.Maxcost=$504k+6months*$10kburnrate=$564k.

CauseorTrigger: Increasinglyrealistic,betterperformingalgorithmsorincreasednumberofalgorithmsperFPGAmightrequiremorethanthelimitof50%utilizationofFPGAlogicresourcesormightrequireclockspeedsthatarehigherthanavailableforthebaselineFPGA,whichmaynecessitatetheuseofahigherperformanceFPGAoranincreasednumberofFPGAs.Alternatively,lowerlatencyrequirementsplacedonthetriggersubsystemsmightrequirefastercalculationsandhencehigherperformanceFPGAs.

ImpactedActivities: ProbabilityissharedbetweenCaloTriggerandCorrelatorTrigger.

Startdate: 1/Jan/2020 Enddate: 31/Mar/2021RiskMitigations: ThebaselineFPGAsupportstheprocessingofsomeprototypealgorithms,whichhavebeendemonstratedtoutilizenotmorethan40%ofthelogic

resourcesatnominalclockspeeds,providingabout10%headroom.Theprototypealgorithmshavebeendemonstratedtocompletewithinonemicrosecondoflatency(consistentwiththecurrentlatencyallocation),potentiallyprovidingsomelimitedabilitytotradelogicresourcesformoreclock-cycles(i.e.longerlatency).Thetotallatencybudgetsareonlyguidelineestimates,andaresubjecttochange.Thecurrentguidelinesforthecalorimetertriggeris1.5microsecondsoflatency(includingRXandTX)andforthecorrelatortrigger2.5microsecondsoftotallatency,split(roughlyevenly)betweenlayer-1andlayer-2(includingRXandTX).

RiskResponses: (1)attempttooptimisethefirmwareimplementationofthealgorithmtoreducethelogicutilizationtofitwithinatotalof50%,(2)increasethelatency(numberofclockcycles)ofthecalculationinanattempttoreducethelogicutilization,whileremainingwithintheallocatedlatencybudget,(3)useahigherperformanceFPGA(suchasaVU13P)oruseahigher-speedgradeFPGAorbuymorebaselineFPGAs(i.e.moreboards)

RT-402-6-90-DTD-KeyTriggerorDAQpersonnelneedtobereplaced(DOE)

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Keyengineerorseniortechnicianwithspecialknowledgeleavestheprojectandneedstobereplaced.Ifthetransitioncanbemanagedsuchthattheincomingand

RiskType: Threat Owner: JeffreyWBerryhillWBS: 402.6TD-TriggerandDAQ(DOE) RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: ThisL2areahas2seniorengineerawhosefunctionsareparticularlyhardtoreplaceonashorttimescalebyexistingteammembers.ExperienceintheCMSPhase1Upgradeprojectsuggeststheprobabilityperkeypersonisroughly25%(probabilitytheyleaveduringtheentireproject).Someinputnumberstothecostimpactanalysis:--Laborcostperperson=$15k/month(fullyburdenedseniorenginer=$185k/year).--AverageburnrateperL3areais=$10k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Minimumscenerio:personleavingisreplacedbyanexistingskilledpersonintheteam.1monthoffulloverlapcosting$15koflabor.Noscheduledelay.Likelyscenario:personleavingisreplacedbyapersonlessfamiliarwiththespecificwork.3monthsmanagedoverlapoftheoutgoingandincomingpeoplecosts3*$15k=$45koflabor.Noscheduledelay.Maximumscenario:personleavesunexpectedlywithnotransferofknowledge.Ittakesabout6monthstofindanewpersonandgetthemfullyuptospeed.Thereislossofproductivityduringthisdifficulttransitionperiodresultinginanet3monthdelaytoL3activities.Costoframp-upeffortofthenewperson(learningbutnotfullycontributingtodeliverables)=3FTE-months*$15k=$45k.Theburnratecostis3*$10k=$30k.Totalcostimpact=$75kTotalfor2persons:Min/Likely/Maxcostimpact=2*$(15/45/75)k=$(30/90/150)$.

RT-402-6-91-DTD-ShortfallinTriggerorDAQscientificlabor(DOE)

performthework.Itisassumedthattheriskistriggeredbyaseriouslyunfavorableoverallbaseprogramfundingsituation.RiskType: Threat Owner: JeffreyWBerryhillWBS: 402.6TD-TriggerandDAQ(DOE) RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 30% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

RT-402-8-01-DETL-AdditionalFEASICprototypecycleisrequired

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:4(H);Cost:2(M)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Thisriskcanhavemultiplecauses.

1)Ifthenecessaryperformance(precisionvspowerconsumption)isnotachievedduringthelastprototypecycle,anadditionalprototypecyclemaybenecessarycausingadelayandincurringacostincrease.2)ASICspecificationhaschangedduetoexternalreasons,suchaslpGBTclockdistribtutiondoesnotmeetspecifications.

RiskType: Threat Owner: TiehuiLiuWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ReliabilityorPerformanceProbability(P): 50% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: ThecostforaMPWrunis400k,andweinclude100-300kforadditionalengineering.

CauseorTrigger: Prototype2doesnotmeetrequirementsandwecannotincludechangesinthepreproductionsubmission.

ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelaycompletionofASICprototyping

Startdate: 1/Mar/2020 Enddate: 1/Jan/2022RiskMitigations: Wehaveincreasedtheeffortforthedesignsimulationandverification.

RiskResponses: Weincludeanadditionalprototypecycle.

Moredetails:

RT-402-8-02-DETL-ProblemswithETLmoduleassemblyfacility

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:4(H);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Thisisageneralcatagorythatincludesmultipleissuesthatcanleadtoaproductionslowdownorstopage.IfaModuleAssemblyfacilitytemporarily

becomesinoperableduetolossofcriticalequipmentoractofgod,thentheresultantdipinmodulethroughputmayjeopardizetimelycompletionoftheproject.

RiskType: Threat Owner: SlawomirMTkaczykWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/FacilitiesProbability(P): 50% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: Ifonecenterhasamajorequipmentfailurethesecondcentercanpickuptheadditionalloadwithinthe100%cushion.Itisassumedthatin1monththeequipmentwouldbereplacedandassemblycouldthenberesumedattheaffectedsite.Anexpecteddelayof1monthduetoaneedtotransfercomponentstothesecondproductionsiteandtoorganizesecondshiftmoduleproduction.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanyoneofthebatchesduringETLAssembly

Startdate: 1/Jan/2023 Enddate: 1/Jul/2024RiskMitigations: HavingatleasttwoUSsitesisariskmitigation,andshouldonesitebecometemporarilyinoperable,componentscouldberedirectedtotheother

sitetemporarilytomitigatetheimpact,whiletheaffectedproductionsiteisbeingrepaired.RiskResponses: Modulecomponentscanbedivertedtotheunaffectedsitetoutilizeitsfullthroughput,andadditionalresourcesaddedtoincreasemodule

productionthroughputatbothsites(oncetheaffectedoneisre-established)toregaintimeintheschedule.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-03-DETL-FEASICdoesnotmeetspecs-needsanotherpre-prodrun

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:3(H)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfthepreproductionFrontEndASICdoesnotmeetspecificationsafterthemasksareproducedthenanadditionalsetofmaskswillneedtobe

producedandadditionalengineeringeffortisrequiredtoadjustthedesignsothattheASICmeetsspecification.RiskType: Threat Owner: TiehuiLiuWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/QualityProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: TheM&Scostis$760kfornewmasksandqualificationwafers.Thelaborcostfortheadditionalengineeringeffortisestimatedasa3-pttriangularPDF:0.25-0.375-0.5FTE.Theestimatedscheduledelayis3-pttriangularPDF:6-7.5-9monthsandweusethestandingarmycostestimatefortheMTD,asdescribedinDocDB#13481,fortheburnrate(14k$/month).Mincost=760k$+0.25*280k$+6month*14k$burnrate=$914kLikelycost=760k$+0.375*280k$+7.5months*14k$burnrate=$970kMaxcost=760k$+0.5*280k$+9months*14k$burnrate=$1026k

CauseorTrigger: ETLFrontEndASICasreturnedfromproductiondoesnotmeetspecificationdespitethepreviousMPWs.

ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelaycompletionofETLpreproduction

Startdate: 1/Jan/2022 Enddate: 1/Jan/2023RiskMitigations: Thisriskismitigatedbycarryingoutseveralprototypecyclesandincreaseddesignsimulationandverificationeffort.

RiskResponses: Ifthefirstpre-productionrundoesnotmeetourrequirementswewillhavetofixtheproblemsandproduceanewmaskset.IftheASICisdelayed

andwecannotmeetthemilestoneofinstallingtheETLduringLS3wemayhavetoinstalltheETLduringoneoftheYETS.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-04-DBTL-LYSOmatricesnotmeetingspecifications

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfdeliveredLYSOcrystalsdonotmeetgeometricoropticalspecificationsthentherewillbeadelayinproduction.RiskType: Threat Owner: AdolfBornheimWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: IfthereisadelayofanyofthesenecessarycomponentsthatistranslatedtoBTLAssembly,thentherewillbeknock-onstandingarmycoststhere.Thisestimateisfor1FTEofonetechnician.

CauseorTrigger: Measurementsofsensorperformanceduringmoduleassembly.

ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanyoneofthebatchesduringBTLAssembly

Startdate: 1/Jan/2020 Enddate: 18/Jan/2022RiskMitigations: QA/QCprocedureintheLYSOprocurement,strictdefinitionofQAcriteriawithvendor.RiskResponses: Oncedeliveryofqualifiedcomponentsrestarts,runx2shiftsofBTLAssemblyandQCtesting,runx2shiftsofBTLIntegration.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-05-DBTL-Changeininterfacesoftrayassemblycomponents

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifthedimensions,connectionsorassemblysequencedetailsofthetraychangethentheproceduresintheintegrationcenterhavetobeadjusted

incurringdelaysandjeopardizingcompletionoftheBTLbytheCMSneed-bydate.RiskType: Threat Owner: AdolfBornheimWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/CollaboratorsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Iftheassemblyofthetraysfromthethreeprincipalcomponents,coolingbar,sensormoulesandfrontendcards,ischangedthemanpowerneedsmayincreaseandadditionaltoolingandskilledlaborneedtobeaaddedtothetask.Mostlikelyimpactis1FTE-yearofaddtionalengineeringatanestimatedcostof$250k.

CauseorTrigger: Changeoftheinterfacesononeorseveralofthecomponentsenteringintothetrayassemblyprocedure.

ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelaythecompletionoftheBTLAssemblyR&Dandprototyping

Startdate: 1/Oct/2019 Enddate: 10/Feb/2023RiskMitigations: WorkwithcollboratorsduringtheR&Dphasetoensuredesignsarecoherent,agreeduponandproperlycommunicatedtoallstakeholders.Further,

ensuredetailedtestingofallprototypesandpreproductionitemstoensureperformanceandtechnicalspecsaremetatalltimes.RiskResponses: Ifinterfacechangesarenecessary,ensurethatdesignchangesremainascompatibleaspossiblewiththeassemblycenterprocedures.Update

procedurespursuanttoupdatedinterfaces.Losttimemadeupthroughincreasedlabor.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-07-DBTL-ConcentratorCarddelayinexternalcomponentdeliveries

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:0(N)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifexternalcomponentsaredelayedthenthedeliverydeadlineobjectiveisjeopardized.RiskType: Threat Owner: YuriiYMaravinWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 3(H)-extremelysubstandardorKPPin

jeopardyCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: AconservativeestimatebasedonthefactthatthelpGBTprototypewasdelayedbyabouthalfayear.GiventhefactthatthelpGBTpinoutisdelayedby6months,thisestimateisratherreasonablethatthedelaywillbeontheorderof6months.

CauseorTrigger: Delaywiththeprototypesorthefinaldesigncomponents ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanybatchofCCsduringCCproduction

Startdate: 1/Oct/2019 Enddate: 15/Apr/2020RiskMitigations: Itisnotpossibletomitigatethisrisk.RiskResponses: Moredetails:

RT-402-8-08-DBTL-Delayincoolingplatedelivery

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifthedeliveryofcoolingplatesbyinternationalpartnerstotheassemblycentersisdelayed,theassemblyofBTLtraysandsubsequentlythedelivery

oftraystoCERNgetsdelayed.RiskType: Threat Owner: AdolfBornheimWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/CollaboratorsProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Ifcoolingplatedeliveryisdelayedtheundergraduteworkerswillnotbeabletoassembletrays.ExtratimeneedstobeworkedlatertomakeupthedelaytokeepthedeliveryscheduletoCERN.TheassemblyoftheBTLtraysisdesignedsuchthatadditionalFTEcanworkinparallelandincreasedthroughputatthecenter.CostreflectscostforaddtionalFTEstomitigatethescheduleimpact.

CauseorTrigger: Delayofcoolingplatedelivery.

Startdate: 28/Jan/2022 Enddate: 31/Jan/2024RiskMitigations: CommunicatecloselywithiCMSpartnerstomaintainscheduleawareness.RiskResponses: Acceleratetrayassembly.Hireadditionalundergratuatestudentstoworkovertimeandweekend.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-10-DETL-Sensorqualityproblemduringproduction

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfthesensorvendordeliverssensorsthatdonotmeetspecificationsthenthedegradedperformanceoftheETLjeopardizesthephysicsperformance

oftheMTDdetector.RiskType: Threat Owner: ChristopherS.RoganWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 15% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: ThecontractwillbewrittenforthevendortodeliveraspecifiednumberofgoodsensorsthatsatisfyCMSspecifications.Thuswedonothavetopayforsensorsthatdonotsatisfythespecificationsandthereisnoimpactonsensorcost.TheonlycostimpactisthatwewillhavetorepeattheQCtestingofthereplacementsensors.Minimalimpact:thishappensduringproductionandiscorrectedquicklyafterfeedbackfromsensorQCleadingtoadelayofabout2monthsandnegligibledirectcost.Maximalscheduleimpact:thishappensduringpreproductionandthepreproductioncyclehastoberepeated,leadingtoadelayofabout6monthsandextralaborcostofabout$25k.TheL3burnrateduetothedelayofdownstreamactivitiesis$14k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Mincost=$0k+2months*$14kburnrate=$28k.Likelycost=$10k+3month*$14kburnrate=$52k.Maxcost=$25k+6months*$14kburnrate=$109k.TheproblemhastoeitherpersistovermanybatchesornotbenoticedduringQCatthevendor(forexampleadegradationofperformanceoversometime).Problemsthataffectasinglebatchofsensors(egbecauseofsomecontaminationorprocessingmistake)willnotleadtoasignificantdelaybecausereprocessingabatchwillonlyaddaweekortwototheproductionperiod.Therefore,theprobabilityofthisthreattooccurismoderate–15%.

CauseorTrigger: Sensorsarrivingfromvendordonotsatisfyspecifications ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanyoneofthebatchesduringETLsensorQC

Startdate: 1/Jan/2022 Enddate: 1/Apr/2024RiskMitigations: Wecarryoutextensiveprototypingworkwiththevendorspriortoplacingthecontractforsensorproductiontomakesurethatvensorsunderstand

ourspecificationsandcanmeetthem.ThevendorwillcarryoutafirstsetofQCmeasurementsbeforethesensorsareshippedtoCERNanddistributedtoQCcenters.Thisensuresthatmostproblemswillbecaughtquicklyanddonotleadtosignificantimpactontheproject.Thecostofthesemeasurementsisfacturedintothesensorcost.

RiskResponses: Ifamodestproblemoccurs,workcloselywithvendortosolveit(e.g.testing).Replacetheflawedsensors.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-14-DBTL-ProblemswithSiPMvendor

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: ThisisageneralcatagorythatincludesmultipleproblemsassociatedwiththeSiPMvendor.

1)IftheproductionSiPMsdonotmeetspecificationsduetoaprocessingerroratthevendor,thentherewillbeasixmonthdelayintheschedulefortestingandcharacterizingtheSiPMs.Thismayimpacttheoverallprojectscheduleandcost.2)IftheproductionofSiPMsisdelayedatthevendor,thatdelaywillpropogatetotheSiPMtestingandcharacterizationschedule,andinturntheoverallprojectschedule.

RiskType: Threat Owner: MitchellWayneWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: 1)IntheeventtheproductionSiPMsdonotmeetspecifications,weestimatea6monthscheduledelaytoproduceanewsetofproductionSiPMS.Thisdelayincludesfabricationofnewwafers,testingandpackagingoftheSiPMs.Thecostimpactwillbe6monthsofhalf-timesupportfortwoengineeringphysicists.2)IntheeventdeliveryoftheproductionSiPMsisdelayedbysomeamountoftime,weestimatetheimpactfromaminimaldelayof2monthsuptoamaximumdelayof8months.Thecostimpactwillbeadditionalsupportfortwoengineeringphysicistsforeachmonthofdelay.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanybatchofSiPMQC

Startdate: 1/Oct/2019 Enddate: 18/Jan/2022RiskMitigations: WorkwithvendortoestablishqualityandgoodyieldthroughprototypeandpreproductionSiPMruns.Couldusemultiple(currentlythereare

2)vendorsifthequalityiscomparable.

RiskResponses: 1)IntheeventofSiPMsnotmeetingspecifications,workwithvendortoidentifythesourceoftheproblem,thenrestarttheproductionprocess.2)IntheeventofadelayinSiPMdelivery,worktotheextentpossibletospeeduptestingandcharacterizationoncetheyaredelivered.

Moredetails:

RT-402-8-15-DBTL-BatchshipmentofSiPMslostintransport

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfabatchoftestSiPMsislostinshipmenttoaproductionsite,thentherewillbeaonemonthdelayoftheSiPMcompletiondate.Thismayimpact

theoverallscheduleandcost.RiskType: Threat Owner: MitchellWayneWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ManagementRisk/LogisticsProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: Weestimatea1monthdelaytoQCanewbatchofproductionSiPMs.ThismayinterruptthemoduleassemblybyonemonthanddelaythedeliveryofthefinalSiPMbatchbyonemonth.Thecostimpactwillbe$224k,basedon28,000channelsandperchannelcostof$8.TheimpactisthesameforanyUSbatch,astheUSdeliversthefirsthalfoftheSiPMs.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanyoneofthebatchesduringBTLAssembly

Startdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 18/Jan/2022RiskMitigations: Divideupthebatchshipmentintoanumberofsmallershipments,thusmitigatingtheimpactofalostshipment.Ofcoursethisimpliesmore

shipments,increasingtheprobabilityofonebeinglost.Weneedtooptimizethisforminimalrisk.RiskResponses: Ifashipmentislost,wewillneedtopurchaseadditionalproductionSiPMsfromthevendor,havethemdelivered,andthenrunthroughthestandard

QCandcharacterization.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-16-DBTL-ProblemswithSiPMQCtestsite

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: ThisisageneralcategorythatincludesmultipleissuesthatcanleadtoreducedorstoppedthoughputattheSiPMQCsite.

1)IfthereisafailureofoneormoreoftheSiPMproductionteststands,thentherewillbeadelayintestingandcharacterizingtheSiPMs.Thismayimpacttheoverallscheduleandcost2)Ifthereisaproblemwiththelabinfrastructure(construction,lossofpower,flooding)thentherewillbeadelayintestingandcharacterizingtheSiPMs.Thismayimpacttheoveralscheduleandcost.

RiskType: Threat Owner: MitchellWayneWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/RequirementsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

ScheduleImpact: PDF =3-point-triangularMinimum =0.25monthsMostlikely =0.5monthsMaximum =1monthsMean =0.58monthsP*<Impact> =0.1months

BasisofEstimate: 1)WeestimatethatafailureofoneoftheSiPMQCteststandswilldelaytheSiPMQCandcharacterizationbyahalf-month,includingtimetoidentifythecausesofthefailureandmakethenecessaryfixes.2)WeestimatethataproblemwiththelabinfrastructurewilleitherbesolvedorresultinmovingtoanewlocationatCERN.Eitherwayweestimateamaximumscheduleimpactofonemonth.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanybatchofSiPMQCStartdate: 1/Jan/2021 Enddate: 18/Jan/2022RiskMitigations: 1)TheteststandswillbeusedtoQCandcharacterizeasignificantnumberofpreproductionSiPMsbeforewedothefullproductionrun.Identify

criticalequipmentandverifyavailability(e.g.CERNpool).2)Wewillidentifyotherpotentiallocationsasabackupforthetesting.

RiskResponses: 1)Identifythecauseofthefailure,andrepairasneeded.2)Eitherwaituntillabproblemisresolved,ormovetestingtoanotherlocation.

Moredetails:

RT-402-8-18-DBTL-Concentratorcardproduction&testingfacilityproblem

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Thisisageneralcatagorythatincludesmultipleissuesthatcanleadtoaslowdownorstoppage.Forexample,ifateststandfailstotestconcentrator

cards,itimpactsthescheduleforCCdeliverytotheassemblycentersRiskType: Threat Owner: YuriiYMaravinWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/RequirementsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

ScheduleImpact: PDF =3-point-triangularMinimum =0.5monthsMostlikely =1monthsMaximum =2monthsMean =1.17monthsP*<Impact> =0.2months

BasisofEstimate: PreviousexperienceintestingMu2eFEBcardsindicatedtheneedforaspecialcard($1k)andmodificationstothetestingjig($9k)componentsduetochangesintheFEBfunctionalityandfeaturesthatprohibitedusingexistingcomponentsatKSU.Totalcostimpactis$10k.Orderingnewparts+installingthem+testingthemcausedadelayofupto2months,includingsoftwareadjustments.Burnrateiszeroastheaffectedpersonnelcanworkonothertasks.

CauseorTrigger: FailureofthetestingjigtoprovideathoroughtestoftheassembledCC ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanybatchofCCsduringCCproduction

Startdate: 15/Mar/2021 Enddate: 15/Jul/2022RiskMitigations: Keepthecomponentsmaintainedandorderspareitemsforcriticalcomponentstobeavailableonashortnoticeincaseoffailure.RiskResponses: Implementmanualtestingprotocolforundergraduateswhiletestingjigissuesareunderstoodandfixed.Hireextraundergraduatestudentsto

performmanualtestingwhilethetestingjigisbeingrepaired.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-30-DBTL-ConcentratorCardrequiressignificantdesignchanges

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Thisisageneralcatagorythatincludesmultipleissuesthatcanleadtoadesignorlayoutchange.

1)IfscopefortheBTLCCchanges,itwillimpactthecostoftheprojectduetoare-designaswellasdelaytheschedule.2)TheconcentratorcarddesignwilldependonthefinalformfactoroftheDC/DCconvertor

RiskType: Threat Owner: YuriiYMaravinWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ManagementRisk/ControllingProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Inthepast,changesindesigncauseddelaysfrom1-2weekstoamonth,incurringadditionalcostsduetoengineertime.However,amajorredesignoftheboard,forexample:adecisiontodoublethebandwidthbyrequiringusingtwolpGBTsinsteadofonewouldrequiredoublingthecomplexityofrouting,essentiallyrequiringanincreaseofthedesigntimebyengineerbyafactoroftwo,includingincreaseintimefortesting.Giventheesitmateof400hoursofengineeringtodesign&layout,doublingofthistimeisagoodestimateofimpactincostandtime.Estimatingthattheengineerissplitbetweentwodifferenttasks,anaverageestimateof5monthsofdelayisextracted.

CauseorTrigger: NewchangestothescopeoftheCCafteritisdesigned ImpactedActivities: RiskcouldimpactthecompletionofCCR&Dandprototyping

Startdate: 1/Oct/2019 Enddate: 27/Jan/2022RiskMitigations: KeepaclosecontacttotheinternationalBTLefforttoensuretimelyresponsetopotentialchangesinthescopeoftheBTLelectronicsandkeep

internationalCMSinformedofimpactsofdesignchangestotheUSscope.

RiskResponses: Delegateafractionofthetaskathandtoanotheravailableengineer,attheKSUElectronicDesginLaboratoryifavailable,oratanotherinstitution.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-31-DETL-Storage-relateddegradationofLGADs

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IftheLGADinventoryisleftaroundfortoolongduringtheassemblyprocessthensomeageingmayoccurthatdegradestheperformanceorrenders

theLGADsunusable.ThiseffectwasobservedinproductionofsensorsforthecurrentCMSTracker.RiskType: Threat Owner: SlawomirMTkaczykWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/QualityProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: On-shelfdegradationofsensorqualitywasobservedforonevendorduringprocurmentofsensorsforthepresentCMStracker.Theproductionwasputonholdforabout3monthstounderstandtheproblemandfindasolution.Provideregularmaintenancetothehumiditycontrolingdevicesforpropoercomponentstorage.Incaseofsmallerstoragecabinetsensurethatdryairiscirculated.

Startdate: 1/Jan/2023 Enddate: 1/Oct/2025RiskMitigations: CarefulQCofthedeliveredLGADsuponreceptionandrepeatQCpriortoassemblyofmoduleswillaloowtoidentifiedproblematicsensors.Proper

storageofcomponentsandhandlinginacontrolledenvironmente.g.cleanroomwithcontrolledhumidityandfilteredaircirculation.RiskResponses: Approved.Changesstartandexpirationdate.Updatedmitigationandresponsetext.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-33-DBTL-DifficultiesprocuringLYSOfrominternationalsuppliers

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfLYSObecomesthesubjectofhightariffsfromaspecificcountry,thentheincreasedcostjeopardizesprojectbudgetand/ordelaysjeopardizeQC

testingscheduleandallsubsequentdependentactivities.RiskType: Threat Owner: ChristopherCarlNeuWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/MarketProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: ConsideringanoverallinvestmentfromtheUSof~$900k.Assuminga50%tariffmeansacostimpactof450k,withsomeguessedrange±250k.CauseorTrigger: Example:TheUSgov'tappliesatariffonrare-earthmetalsortheir

relatedcommodities.Internationalsuppliersapplyexportcontrolsoranembargoonthesematerials.

ImpactedActivities: Riskcoulddelaythedeliveryofthepre-productionLYSOcrystals

Startdate: 1/Oct/2019 Enddate: 18/Jan/2022RiskMitigations: Weshouldhavequalifiedvendorsinmultiplecountriessothatweareinsulatedfromeffectsassociatedwithpurchasingfromasingle

foreigncountry.RiskResponses: WorkwithatleasttwoprovidersthatcanincreasetheirLYSOprovisioninthecaseoftheapplicationofatariffaffectingone.Makesurethecontract

containsappropriatelanguage.HavethepurchasegothroughCERNsothatitisinsulatedfromtheseUS-specificeffects.IncreasetheprovisionofLYSOfromalternativevendorthatisnotsubjecttothepolitical/economicobstacleconfronted.

Moredetails:

RT-402-8-34-DBTL-DelayindeliveryofcomponentsfromiCMS

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfthedeliveryofLYSO,SiPMsorelectronicscomponentsforthemodulesisdelayed,themoduleandtrayproductionandsubsequenttray

integrationisdelayed.RiskType: Threat Owner: AdolfBornheimWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/CollaboratorsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Ifthedeliveryofanyofthecomponentsenteringintothetrayintegrationisdelayedwewouldneedtocatchupproductionbyincreasingavaiablemanpower.Themoduleandtrayassemblyisverygranularandcanbescaledeasilybyaddingmanpower.Multipleteamscanworkonasingletraytointegratecomponents.Thecostimpactreflectsthecostofhiringadditionallabor.Thescheduleimpactaccountsforthefactthathiringadditionallaborandtrainingnewpeoplemaycausedelays.

CauseorTrigger: Deliveryofcomponentsisdelayed.

Startdate: 28/Jan/2022 Enddate: 31/Jan/2024RiskMitigations: Ensurestrictdefinitionofdeliveryscheduleandintegrateinthecontractualagreementwithvendorsandcollaborators.RiskResponses: Hireadditionalunskilledlabortoworkonthemoduleassemblyandtrayintegrationwithmultipleteamsononetray.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-35-DBTL-DelaysordamageoftrayintransporttoCERN

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfatrayisdelayedordamagedintransportofBTLtoCERNthentheintegrationandcommissioningtaskmaybedelayed,withapotentialcost

increase.RiskType: Threat Owner: AdolfBornheimWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ManagementRisk/LogisticsProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: Oneassemblysiteproduces2trayspermonth.Weplantoshipinboxesoftwotrayssincewewillmaketwosparetrays.Alossofoneboxcouldbecompensated.Thecostestimatecorrespondstothecomponentcostof1trayplusextralabortomakethetray.Afterintegrationisfinishedwewanttokeepatleastoneextratrayforfurthertestingandstudiesofthedetectorcomponentseg.intestbeamsoutsideoftheoperatingdetector.

CauseorTrigger: Lossofoneshipment.

ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanyoneofthebatchesduringBTLAssembl

Startdate: 10/Feb/2023 Enddate: 31/Jan/2024RiskMitigations: Scheduleshipmentsinsmallquantities-2perboxinourcase.RiskResponses: ThereissufficientbufferintheschedulesothatthelossononeboxwillhavenoimpactonthescheduleMoredetails:

RT-402-8-36-DBTL-InterfacetoiCMSchanges

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifthemechanical,thermalorserviceconnectionsoftheBTLtotherestofCMSchange,therespectivedesignshavetobeadjusted.RiskType: Threat Owner: AdolfBornheimWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/InterfacesProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: Ifeg.thedetailsoftheserviceroutingstoBTLgetchangedweneedtomodifytherespectivedesign.Thismaydelaystartofassemblytoallowadjustmentsontrayconnections.FortheintegrationintoCMSthismaycomplicateintegrationprocedure.Thecostimpactreflectsadditionaldesignworkandadditionallaborfortheassemblyprocedure.Scheduleimpactaccountsforpossibledelayinassemblyorneedtoaccelerateassemblytocompensatetimeittakestoimplementchanges.

CauseorTrigger: ChangeofservicesandmechanicalinterfacesbyCMSTRKorCMSTC

ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelaythecompletionoftheBTLAssemblyR&Dandprototyping

Startdate: 1/Apr/2019 Enddate: 3/Jan/2024RiskMitigations: Keepdesignflexibleenoughtoallowmodificationstoservicesandmechanicalinterfaces.Ensurepropercommunication,reviewofdesignsandtight

collaborationinparticularwiththeCMStrackergroup.RiskResponses: Adjustserviceandmechanicalinterfacedesign.MayhaveimpactonreadinessofcomponentsorcomplexitiyoftheassemblyprocessMoredetails:

RT-402-8-42-DBTL-Problemswithmoduleassemblysite

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Thisisageneralcategorythatincludesmultipleissuesthatcanleadtoaslowdownorstoppageattheintegrationcenter.Ifsuchaneventoccurs,a

delayisincurredwhiletheissueisbeingresolved.RiskType: Threat Owner: AdolfBornheimWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/FacilitiesProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Ifinanyoftheproceduralstepsofthetrayintegrationaproblemoccurs,theassemblyprocedurewillbedelayed.Possibleproblemsarebreakageoftoolsortestequipment,accidentsinhandlingcomponents,qualityproblemseg.ingluingormatingofcomponentscausedbyexternalfactorssuchasimproperenviromentalconditionsortemporarydisruptioninthefunctinalityoftheintegrationcenterinfrastructure.

CauseorTrigger: Stopageofseriousslowdownofassemblyprocedure.

Startdate: 28/Jan/2022 Enddate: 31/Jan/2024RiskMitigations: Productionscheduleisdesignedwithsufficientfloattooffsetpossibledelays.Theuseofasecondproductioncentercanoffsetproductioncapacity

issuesinonecenter.RiskResponses: Hireadditionalunskilledlabortointegratetrayswithtwopeopleworkinginparallel.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-43-DTL-SystemTesting-componentslateforsystemtest

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:1(L)Schedule:2(M)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Componentsneededforintegrationintoalargersystemarenotavailableintimeforschedulebeamtests.Theresultsofthesystemtestmaybe

neededfortheEngineeringDesignReviews.Ifcomponentsaredelayedwewilleitherdelaythesystemtestorwillneedtohaveanadditionalsystemtestwhnethecomponentsareavailable.

RiskType: Threat Owner: LindseyA.GrayWBS: 402.8TL-TimingLayer(generalrisks) RiskArea: ExternalRisk/CollaboratorsProbability(P): 30% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Ifwedelaythetestingwewouldnothaveanyadditionalcost,butmayincuradelayintheschedule.Ifweneedtoincludeanadditionaltestforwhenthecomponentisavailable,wewouldincuradditionalcostsandpossiblyascheduledelay.Probabilityisestimatedtobe30%(15%forBTLand15%forETL).

CauseorTrigger: Delayincomponentneededforasystemtest.

ImpactedActivities: TheresultsoftheBTLandETLsystemtestsmaybeneededduringprototypedevelopmentandasinputtotheEngineeringDesignReviews.

Startdate: 1/Jan/2019 Enddate: 1/Mar/2022RiskMitigations: Monitorthecomponentavailabilityandadjustthetestscheduleifneeded.RiskResponses: Ifacomponentisdelayedwecanstilldoapartialsystemtest.Wecanalsotestthecomponentseparatelyordelaythetestuntilthecomponentis

available.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-44-DBTL-ConcentratorCardbatchshipmentlost/damaged/delayed

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifbatchislostordamaged,areplacementneedstobeprocuredthatwouldincreasetheoverallcostoftheproject.Adelayindeliverywouldresultin

thedelayofmeetingthedeadlines.RiskType: Threat Owner: YuriiYMaravinWBS: 402.8.3BTL-BarrelTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Incaseofacompletelossof22CCsinasingleshipment,theseboardsneedtobeprocured,withanestimateofabout1monthofproductiontime,estimatedfrompreviousexperienceofproducingbatchesofsimilarcomplexityforotherHEPexperiments.Thedelayisnotlikelytobesignificantifitisjustonebatchofmany,asthespeedofdeliveryofCCswilllikelyoutpacetheassemblyspeed.Giventhefactthatwewillproduce10%extracomponents,whichcorrespondstoabout71extraboards,alossofthreeshipmentswillbearzeroimpact.

CauseorTrigger: Lossoftheshipment ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanyoneofthebatchesduringBTLAssembly

Startdate: 15/Mar/2021 Enddate: 15/Jul/2022RiskMitigations: EnsurespeedydeliveryofalltheCCstoassemblycenters,sothatapotentiallossofashipmentwillnotaffectthetimingoftheassembly.Perform

fastQA/QCofthefirstbatchoftheCCstoestimatethefractionofthespareCCsthatwouldsatisfyqualityrequirementandcouldbeusedifashipmentbatchislost.

RiskResponses: AttempttorepairboardsthatfailQC/QAtestsifthefixesaresimple.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-48-DETL-DelayindeliveryofpartsfromiCMS

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Theassemblyofmodulesgetsdelayedifthecomponentsofpartsarenotdeliveredontime.ThismayjeopardizethedeliveryofETLmoduleson

time.RiskType: Threat Owner: SlawomirMTkaczykWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/CollaboratorsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Wewillrecoverthescheduledelaybyaddingadditionalshiftswhichleadstoanimpactonthecosts.Weallowforapossible1monthdelay.CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Riskcoulddelayanyoneofthebatchesduring

ETLAssemblyStartdate: 1/Jan/2023 Enddate: 1/Oct/2024RiskMitigations: Theprototypeexpereinceshouldinformthemoduleassemblytimeestimate.RiskResponses: Ifthedeliveryofcomponentsisdelayedwewouldneedtoincreaseproductionbyaddingadditionalshifts.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-49-DETL-DelaysordamageintransportofETLmodulestoCERN

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Ifmodulesaredamagedinshippingtheywillneedtobereplacedandthisriskmayimpacttheboththecostandscheduleandmayjeperdizethe

completionoftheprojectonbudgetandontime.RiskType: Threat Owner: SlawomirMTkaczykWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: ManagementRisk/LogisticsProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: CostestimatedforthelossofabatchofmodulestoCERNandtoincreasemoduleproductiontoreplacedamagedmodules.CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Riskcoulddelayanyoneofthebatchesduring

ETLIntegrationandCommissioningStartdate: 1/Jan/2023 Enddate: 1/Oct/2024RiskMitigations: Carefuldesignofmodulecarrierstoreducetheriskofdamage.Selectionofashippercompanyafterqualification.Quantityofmodulesinone

shipmentshouldnotexceedthenumebrofsparemodulesintheproject.RiskResponses: Increasemoduleproductiontoreplacethedamagedmodulesinordertoreducetheimpactontheschedule.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-50-DETL-Moduleassemblyyieldislow

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IftheyieldfromModuleAssemblyislowerthanexpected,thentheadditionalresourcesneededtocompensatefordelaysinprojectscheduleand

budget.RiskType: Threat Owner: SlawomirMTkaczykWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/QualityProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Minimum:nocostimpact,nodelay.Likely:nodelay.5k$isthecostofadditionallabourandadditionalcomponents.Maximum:15k$isthecostofadditionallabourandadditionalcomponents.1monthdelay:timetodiagnosetheproblemandimprovethemoduleassemblyprocedure.

Startdate: 1/Oct/2023 Enddate: 1/Oct/2024RiskMitigations: ExtensivemoduleprototypingandgoodunderstandingoftheassemblyprocessshouldmitigatetheriskofloweryieldsduringModuleassembly.

RigidQCshouldbeabletoidentifymoduleswithlowerqualityataproductionfacilityandtriggerastudyleadingtoundertandtheoriginoftheproblem.

RiskResponses: Additionalresourcesbothtocompensatefortheloweryieldandfurtherparallelizetheassemblyproceduretoregainschedulewouldbeneeded.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-51-DETL-ProblemwithAlNvendor

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:1(VL);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfthereisaproblemwiththeAlNvendorthentherecouldbedelaysorcostincreases.Examplesofproblemsinclude:vendorgoingoutofbusiness,

vendordeliveringsubstandardcarrierAlN,orthevendorcannotdeliveraccordingtotheagreedschedule.RiskType: Threat Owner: SlawomirMTkaczykWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 5% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Minimumimpact:theproblemisrelativelymodestandissolvedbythevendorwithin1monthswithoutanydirectcostimpacttotheproject.Likelyimpacts:theproblemismoresignificantandrequiresadditionalprototypeswiththevendorresultinginadelayof2monthsandacostof$15kforAlNandmachining.Maximumimpact:ifweneedtoswitchvendorwewouldneedtoqualifyascondvendorresultingina3monthdelay.Thecostincreasecouldbe$30kforprototypingandsetupcostswiththenewvendor.

Startdate: 1/Oct/2022 Enddate: 1/Oct/2024RiskMitigations: PrototypingexperienceinthenexttwoyearsshouldresultinareliablecostestimateofthenecessaryAlNformoduleassemblies.

BuyAlNsupportstructuresasearlyaspossible.RiskResponses: Ifweneedtoswitchvendorwewouldneedtoqualifyasecondvendorresultinginamonthdelay.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-52-DETL-ModuleRadiationTolerance

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfModulematerialssuchasadhesives,cables,fibers,etcaresusceptibletodegradationfromradiationexposure,thenresultingdelaystofindrobust

alternativesjeopardizetimelycompletionoftheproject.Thisisariskduringmoduleproductionaftertheprototypingqualificationofmodulecomponents.

RiskType: Threat Owner: SlawomirMTkaczykWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/ReliabilityorPerformanceProbability(P): 10% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: IncreasedresourcesforlaborandinfrastructuretoparallelizedownstreamactivitiesinModuleAssemblytorecoupdelaysfromradiationeffectsdiscoveredlate.Estimated1monthdelaytorecoupthedelays.

Startdate: 1/Oct/2022 Enddate: 1/Oct/2024RiskMitigations: Irradiationofdummyandprototypemodulesshouldinformhowlikelyariskthisis.RiskResponses: IncreasedresourcesforlaborandinfrastructuretoparallelizedownstreamactivitiesinModuleAssemblytorecoupdelaysfromradiationeffects

discoveredlate.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-53-DETL-IntegrationfacilityatCERNrunsoutofcomponents

RiskRank: 1(Low)Scores:Probability:3(M);Cost:1(L)Schedule:1(L)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: IfETLcomponentdeliverytoCERNisdelayedthenthesubsequentdelayinintegrationjeopardizesthecompletionoftheprojectintimefor

scheduledstartofETLdatataking.RiskType: Threat Owner: SlawomirMTkaczykWBS: 402.8.4ETL-EndcapTimingLayer RiskArea: ExternalRisk/FacilitiesProbability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =1-point-singlevalue

BasisofEstimate: TheI&CactivitieswillbedelayedandadditionalCOLAsupportforUSpersonnelneedstobeprovided.Weassume4studentsand2postdocsneedCOLAsupportat1k$/student/monthand$1.5k/postdoc/month(totalCOLAcost=$7k/month).

CauseorTrigger: ComponentsforETLmoduleassemblyontheDees/wedgesaredelayed. ImpactedActivities: RiskcoulddelayanyoneofthebatchesduringETLIntegrationandCommissioning

Startdate: 1/Jan/2025 Enddate: 1/Jun/2026RiskMitigations: Frontloaddeliveryscheduleofcomponentstogetaheadofneedsofassemblyschedule.RiskResponses: USwillprovidepersonnelatCERNtoassistinintegrationandcommissioningoftheETLdetector.Moredetails:

RT-402-8-90-DTL-KeyTimingLayerpersonnelneedtobereplaced

RiskType: Threat Owner: ChristopherCarlNeuWBS: 402.8TL-TimingLayer(generalrisks) RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 25% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: ThisL2areahas3seniorengineerswhosefunctionsareparticularlyhardtoreplaceonashorttimescalebyexistingteammembers.Theyworkinthefollowingareas:(1)SiPMR&Dandqualityassurance;(2)EEforBTLCC;and(3)ASICengineering.ExperienceintheCMSPhase1Upgradeprojectsuggeststheprobabilityperkeypersonisroughly25%(probabilitytheyleaveduringtheentireproject).Someinputnumberstothecostimpactanalysis:--Laborcostperperson=$15k/month(fullyburdenedseniorenginer=$185k/year).--AverageburnrateperL3areais=$14k/month(CMS-doc-13481).Minimumscenerio:personleavingisreplacedbyanexistingskilledpersonintheteam.1monthoffulloverlapcosting$15koflabor.Noscheduledelay.Likelyscenario:personleavingisreplacedbyapersonlessfamiliarwiththespecificwork.3monthsmanagedoverlapoftheoutgoingandincomingpeoplecosts3*$15k=$45koflabor.Noscheduledelay.Maximumscenario:personleavesunexpectedlywithnotransferofknowledge.Ittakesabout6monthstofindanewpersonandgetthemfullyuptospeed.Thereislossofproductivityduringthisdifficulttransitionperiodresultinginanet3monthdelaytoL3activities.Costoframp-upeffortofthenewperson(learningbutnotfullycontributingtodeliverables)=3FTE-months*$15k=$45k.Theburnratecostis3*$14k=$42k.Totalcostimpact=$87kTotalforallkeypersons:Min/Likely/Maxcostimpact=3*$(15/45/87)k=$(45/135/261)$.

RT-402-8-91-DTL-ShortfallinTimingLayerscientificlabor

performthework.Itisassumedthattheriskistriggeredbyaseriouslyunfavorableoverallbaseprogramfundingsituation.RiskType: Threat Owner: ChristopherCarlNeuWBS: 402.8TL-TimingLayer(generalrisks) RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 30% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

withcostedlabor(e.g.technicians).Moredetails:

RU-402-1-01-DPM-Foreignexchangeratesareuncertain(DOE)

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:5(VH);Cost:3(H)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Futureexchangeratesaremoreorlessfavorablethanthecanonicalvalueinthebaselineplanresultinginachangeinthecosttotheproject.RiskType: Uncertainty Owner: VivianO'DellWBS: 402.1PM-ProjectManagement(DOE) RiskArea: ExternalRisk/MarketProbability(P): 100% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

Minimum =-7260k$Mostlikely =1780k$Maximum =10420k$Mean =1647k$P*<Impact> =1647k$

BasisofEstimate: Thecostimpactparametersaretheresultofadetailedscenarioanalysis.Historicalexchangeratedatawereusedtoreplaytypicalratevariations(scenarios)andhencemodelpotentialfuturechanges(typicalpercentagechangesfromquartertoquarter--notabsoluterates),asdescribedinCMS-doc-13481andcalculatedinCMS-doc-11825.Theriskuncertaintyisappliedtotheamountofforeigncostsperfiscalyear(determinedfromP6)throughouttheprojectallowingforthefactthattheuncertaintyincreasesfurtherintothefuture.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Startdate: 1/Jan/2018 Enddate: RiskMitigations: Theexchangerateuncertaintyincreasesthefurtherinthefuturethecostisincurred.Thereforetheprojectwillseektoadvanceforeignexchange

transactionswherepossibleandconsistentwiththeavailabilityoffunds.Forexample,itmaybepossibletofront-loadthepaymentoftheCMScommonfund(inSwissFrancs)orprocuresilicon(inYen)earlierthanisabsolutelyneeded(ontechnicalgrounds).

RiskResponses: Ifthecostimpactsareacceptabletheriskresponseistousecontingencytocovertheincreasedcosts.Forextremeexchangeratechangesthatcannotbecoveredbycontingency,workwiththeagenciestoaddresstheissue.Inextremis,donotcompletetheobjectiveKPPsifthereareinsufficientfund.

RU-402-1-02-DPM-Futureescalationratesareuncertain(DOE)

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:5(VH);Cost:3(H)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: ThecostestimatesintheBasisofEstimate(BoE)documentsareexpressedintermsofthebase-yeardollarwhentheestimatewasmade(typically

FY17).Forbudgetingpurposes[GAO-09-3SP,page102],projectedescalationratesarethenappliedtoescalatethebase-yeardollarstothen-yeardollarsandhencereflecttheexpectedcostintheyearinwhichitwillbeincurred.Ifactualinflationinfuturediffersfromtheassumedescalationrates,thentheprojectcostmayincreaseordecrease.

RiskType: Uncertainty Owner: VivianO'DellWBS: 402.1PM-ProjectManagement(DOE) RiskArea: ExternalRisk/MarketProbability(P): 100% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Thecostimpactisestimatedbyapplyingvarioussetsofhistoricalescalationratetimeprofiles(seperatelyforbothM&Sandlabor)totheprojectcostprofiletoseehowmuchisthecostimpactcomparedtothedefaultassumptioninthebaseplan.Themainanalysisisdescribedin[CMS-doc-13481].Thehistoricaldatasetsassessedare[CMS-doc-12866]:--generalinflation(CPI);--theUSBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS)ProducerPriceIndex(PPI)forallmanufacturingindustries;--theBLSEmploymentCostIndexforUniversityLaborcosts;and--asampleofactualandprojectlaborratesfromUS-CMSinstitutes.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Startdate: 1/Jan/2018 Enddate: RiskMitigations: Monitoractualescalationannuallyandupdateprojectplanaccordingly.RiskResponses: Ifthecostimpactsareacceptabletheriskresponseistousecontingencytocovertheincreasedcosts.Forextremeinflationratechangesthat

cannotbecoveredbycontingency,workwiththeagenciestoaddresstheissue.Ifneedbe,descopeoptions(thathavealreadybeenidentified)mayneedtobeexercisedtoensuretheoverallprojectcostremainswithintheagencyguidance.

RU-402-1-03-DPM-FutureFermilaboverheadratesareuncertain(DOE)

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:5(VH);Cost:3(H)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Fermilabchargesindirectcostsonfundsspentatthelabandalso--subjecttothresholdsandatdifferentrates--onfundsthataretransferredtoUS-

CMSinstitutesthroughsub-awards.Theoverheadratesareadjustedeachyearandmaybecomemoreorlessfavorablecomparedtothecanonicalvalueinthebaselineplan.Note:giventhenumberofUS-CMSinstitutesinvolved,weassumethatincreasesanddecreasesintheirratesroughlycancelonaverage.Inaddition,institutesgenerallydonotchargeanyindirectcostsforcapitalM&Sexpenditures(e.g.largeprocurementsofequipment).

RiskType: Uncertainty Owner: VivianO'DellWBS: 402.1PM-ProjectManagement(DOE) RiskArea: ManagementRisk/FundingorResourcesProbability(P): 100% TechnicalImpact: 0(N)-negligibletechnicalimpactCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

Minimum =-2050k$Mostlikely =-100k$Maximum =2200k$Mean =17k$P*<Impact> =17k$

BasisofEstimate: SinceFY08,theFermilabLaborandM&Sstandardrateshavevariedbytypically3.6%peryearforMIEfunds.Inthisperiodtheratestrendedsystematicallyupwardsbutwedonotbelievesuchatrendwillcontinueunabated.Infuturetheremightevenbeareversiontoalowerlong-termmean.Infutureyears,wethereforeassumethattheindirectratescouldincrease,decreaseorremainthesamewithapproximatelyequalprobabilities.TomodeltheimpactsofthisweconstructatoyMC.TheProjectspendsabout$57.8MatFermilab(directcosts+indirectcosts+escalation+estimateuncertainty).Wetaketheprofileofthesecostsandassessthecostimpactiftheindirectratesineachfutureyeararevariedrandomlybybetween±3.6%comparedtothepreviousyear.Thiscoversarangeofscenariosinwhichratescantrendupwards,trenddownwards,orfluctuaterandomlyfromyeartoyear.Themin/likely/maxcostimpactsaredeterminedfromthistoyMC.See:CMS-doc-13501andCMS-doc-13481.

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Startdate: 1/Oct/2016 Enddate: 30/Sep/2025RiskMitigations: RiskResponses: Updateprojectplanstoaccountforindirectratechangesatleastannuallyandcarefullymonitorchangesintheremainingcontingency.

Moredetails: CMS-doc-13501(seealsoCMS-doc-13481)

RU-402-2-01-DOT-UncertainperformanceofHybridsvendor

RiskRank: 3(High)Scores:Probability:5(VH);Cost:2(M)Schedule:3(H)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: Thereisuncertaintyintheperformanceofthevendorofhybridsformoduleswhichcouldhavearangeofimpactsfromnegligibletosignificantcost

impactanddelay.

RiskType: Uncertainty Owner: LeonardGSpiegelWBS: 402.2OT-OuterTracker RiskArea: ExternalRisk/VendorsProbability(P): 100% TechnicalImpact: 1(L)-somewhatsubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: Minimumimpact:noextracostnordelayLikelyimpact:issueswiththevendorcausingadelayatdeliveryof2months.Useamoduleassemblylaborburnrateof$54k/monthwithoutescallation.Maximumimpact:weneedtofindanalternativevendororsignificantreworkisneededattheselectedvendor.Thisimpliesacostimpactof$648k(12*54k/month).

CauseorTrigger: ImpactedActivities: Moduleassembly.Thisriskshouldbeimplementedinserieswiththemoduleriskonreceivingthemechanicalparts.

Startdate: 1/Apr/2020 Enddate: 31/Dec/2024RiskMitigations: TheprototypingexperienceshouldinformthehybridfabricationtimeestimatesRiskResponses: IncreasedresourcesforlaborandinfrastructuretoparallelizedownstreamactivitiesinModuleAssemblyandPlank/LayerAssemblytorecoup

delaysfromHybridsMoredetails: CMS-doc-13481

RU-402-6-07-DTD-DAQSTMSI/Operformancedoesnotmeetrequirements(DOE)

RiskRank: 2(Medium)Scores:Probability:2(L);Cost:2(M)Schedule:0(N)) RiskStatus: OpenSummary: TheI/OrequirementsoftheDAQSTMScouldchangeinresponsetochangesineventsizeorHLToutputeventrate.Thisevent,inturn,

requiresmore(orless)STMSresourcesinresponse.RiskType: Uncertainty Owner: JeffreyWBerryhillWBS: 402.6TD-TriggerandDAQ(DOE) RiskArea: TechnicalRisk/RequirementsProbability(P): 20% TechnicalImpact: 2(M)-significantlysubstandardCostImpact: PDF =3-point-triangular

BasisofEstimate: PurchasecostofDAQSTMS(768k$)scaleddown/upby-25%/50%/100%CauseorTrigger: SpecifyingHLToutputeventrateoreventsizedifferentfromTDRvalues. ImpactedActivities: ProcurementcostofDAQSTMSStartdate: 1/Oct/2018 Enddate: 3/Jun/2025RiskMitigations: OngoingevaluationofDAQconfigurationinresponsetoHLTdesignandT0computing.RiskResponses: NegotiationwithCMSDAQonre-configurationofprojecttomeetstartupgoals.Moredetails:

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