risk based decision making - unece

RISK BASED DECISION MAKING

COVID 19 SURVEY

WP.6 GRM

Alpaslan MENEVŞE

Recommendations P

Crisis Management within a Regulatory Framework - UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE

• Promoting a culture of responsible management of risks and increased preparedness for crises, including more effective coordination among all parties that can be involved in crises.

• https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trade/wp6/Recommendations/Recommendation_P_en.pdf

Uncertainties

• Known knowns : Risk level known and effects are measurable

• Known unknowns : Risk known, but not so measurable effects. Preparedness most useful here

• Unknown knowns* : Black Swans – Exists but hidden - predictable

• Unknown unknowns* : Potential - Not occured nor have any experience – Absolute uncertainty* Recommendation P Noting that some risks are almost impossible to identify, and that all risks, even if identified, cannot be totally mitigated,

Risks

• Operational – Process Level

• Tactical – Project Level

• Strategic – Objective Level

Keywords

#Ownership (Individual)

#Preparedness (Collective Mind)

Why Need

Survey?

To make Informed decisions about:

Occurance of once in a Life Time events in Increasing Frequency

Coping with World Wide Diasasters

Sustainable Social Life

Sustainable Economy

Target Audience

REGULATORY BODIES

LAW MAKERS

SECTORAL REGULATORS

CIVILPROFFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS

Objective

Wider Scope for Business Life

Enabling measurements for future expectation models

Awareness for preparedness

May shed light to Unpredicted outcomes of Pandemics

Need for World Wide Cooperation

Future potential disasters Earth Quakes, Cyber Security etc.

Reporting application differences

To connect Past-Present-Future for informed risk based decision making

Design of Survey

How well are we prepared?

How we cope with the crisis?

How to shape better future

with regulations?

Past Present Future

Scope of the Survey

• General Information - 7Q (Sector, roles etc.)

• Planning and Recources – 15Q (Preparedness before the crisis)

• Operation Of The Crisis Unit – 11Q (Actions, Timing and Availability)

• People - 5Q ( expertise, effectiveness)

• Infrastructure - 10Q (Buildings, tools and equipment)

• COVID 19 Affects - 10Q (Social, economic, supply chain etc.)

• Total 58 Questions –Approx. 15 mins

Sample Questions

PLANNING and RESOURCES

• What is the degree to which your current policies address crisis-related risks and problems? (Past)

• How do you rate effectiveness of your current crisis management plans? (Present)

• Is there a need to revise the roles and responsibilities in the crisis management unit?(Future)

Thank You... WP.6 GRM