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Richard Nixon Presidential LibraryContested Materials CollectionFolder List
Box Number Folder Number Document Date Document Type Document DescriptionNo Date Subject
44 9 12201971 Memo To HR Haldeman From Harry Dent RE For Your Information RE Listening Post Preliminary Survey Results 12 December 1971 2pgs
Campaign
44 9 Memo To Mort Allin From Gordon Strachan RE For Your Information RE Los Angeles Times article from Dec 3 1971 titled Poll Finds Reversal Shift Against Nixons Vietnam Policy Seen Article attached 2pgs
Campaign
44 9 1261971 Memo To Charles W Colson From Jon M Huntsman RE California Poll 1pg
Campaign
44 9 11301971 Memo To Jon Huntsman From Bruce Kehrli RE Comment on Polls showing trial heat results in the future California political brief from November 24 1971 attached 2pgs
Campaign
44 9 11121971 Memo To Gordon Strachan From Jeb Magruder RE For Your Information RE Summary of October Listening Post information for California from Thomas Reed Survey Results and Issue Clusters Over Time Most Important State Problem attached 5pgs
Campaign
44 9 11101971 Letter To HR Haldeman From Thomas C Reed RE Summary of October Listening Post for California Survey results and Issue Clusters Over Time Most Important State Problem and Most Important National Problem attached 4pgs
Campaign
Thursday February 09 2012 Page 1 of 2
Box Number Folder Number Document Date Document Type Document DescriptionNo Date Subject
44 9 10121971 Memo To HR Haldeman From Gordon Strachan RE LA and Orange County phone study that states Kennedy but not Muskie would win CA in a three way race Listening Post data and Issue Clusters Over Time data attached 7pgs
Campaign
44 9 10131971 Memo To Bob Haldeman From Harry Dent RE For Your Information RE September Listening Post survey results from Thomas C Reed Results and Issue Clusters attached 5pgs
Campaign
Thursday February 09 2012 Page 2 of 2
J)ate
H R HALDEMAN O~~
FROM I ~RRY DENT~~ please handle_______
For your infomation
I
L is TEN I N GPOST
~rel1minary Survey Resllts I 12 December 1971 1013 Telephone Interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties I November 1971
1 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
This Survey November October September August
E Muskie 31 30 34 18 E Kennedy 27 26 29 32 H Humphrey 15 13 8 13 G McGovern 7 10 10 8 H Jackson 6 2 2 4 J Lindsay 2 5 5 8 All others 13 12 12 19
f
bull 2 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support II Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for re-election l would you vote for him
No Yes No Depends Answer
This survey I November 273 438 264 26 October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Head to Head No RNixon E Kennedy G WaBre Answer
Total LA amp Orange Co 417 394 73 116
Republicans 840 77 37 47 Democrats 203 604 7 8 115 Independents 362 310 132 195
L A County only 390 425 7 4 111 Orange County only 585 205 7 0 140
Total L A amp Orange Co I
August survey 394 440 85 80
Los Angeles County is reasonably representative of California as a whole
THE WHITE HOUSE IJ -(l WASHINGTON tPshy
FROM MORT ALLIN ~~~ TO 0QfdonSt-rCtcha
FYI
I _middotAIY~middotL I II h(~-A-xrr r1~~~--d 4 Iltor~ 1Lgt (0 If
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20 Patf-FriDec3 1971 Jou5lnGrlt~timrl Judge Files I p PRICES EFFECTIVE
POLL FINDS REVERSAL Suit to Test I~~ Tf~~~~middotDEC5
I I f
Shift Agains~ Nixons E~~~~~~ I tgt I PT r=I- ~VIetnan1 Policy Soenf
i SA FRANCISCO IAI shy than Nix 0 n s timetable
For the first time public calls for Field said opinion in Califor1ia has Among Democrats 59 turned against Pesident want a speedier withdrawmiddot Nixons handling of the a1 and 22 support the Yietnam war the Califor
present pace he saidnia Poll said Thursday Ihile among Republicans A surey completed last 430 want a quicker reo
month also shows that a turn and 4-1 agree with m a j 0 r i t Y favos faster Nixons plans t roo p withdra 31 and Field said that 69 of that more than [0 out of three Californias think ~g~Sarq~~~~ii~~~dke~ei~~the war will be til major in next ycars Presidentialissue in the 1972 oresidenmiddot race 74 of the Demoshytial campaign Fjll direcshy crats and 620 of the Re-tor Iervin D Field reshy publicans see it as a majorported factor he said
vltons recuiring jul~es to I ~r I -4~ rrtke a leave of abltence or
leslgn upon LeCOlTIlllg canmiddot dldates for oiher publIc ofmiddot fie e s we r e challenged Thursday in ~ uit flIed by Citrus ~runlclpal Judge JohnMAlex
His Superior Court commiddot ljlaint was brought againstthe count and the Board S H kor upernsors e as eu
that he be paid S601238
~~~rc~h~o rl~~i~~neb~~~~~when he took a Jeae of absencE for an unsucce~s-ful try for election as a Reshypublican from the 24th Congresional District
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bullI------~-----Interviews with a crossshy
section of 1Oll7 Californimiddot ans oyer the age of 18 rtshyvealed that j6~o disapshyprcgted of ~lr lxons polio cili$ 43 appoved and i 11 had no opLlion Field If said tj
In May 1971 he said those approYin prevailed It oyer opponents 45lt to 4Y~ while in June 1970 i supporters prevailed 460 I
to 40~c IA total of jc of Calishy
fornians inclt1ing a mamiddot t joritv of DelTIcltral~ and a bull iarge minority of Repuhimiddot can$ want US troops to come home at a faster rate
Parlier Mayor fa Face Trial
SABBATH SERVICES-ALL ARE WELCOME (venng Strvitt-frdoy De( 3 01 815 PM
BISHOP GERALD KENNEDY Bishop of the United Methodist Church
Morning Service-Saturday Dec 4 1030 AM RAB81GOLOMARK
WILL SPEAK
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COMI
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8TRACKT COMPARI
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 6 1971 DETERMINED TO BE Aft
ADMINIS ~ h lARKING EO )20~~ ~~~ion 6-102
By_W-IJML_hAL bull vltd e_5J3~~_
GQ~FIDEHTIiL
MEMORANDUM FOR GHARLESmiddotW GOLSON r FROM JON M HUNTSMA~
SUBJECT California Poll
It was reported in the December 3 1971 News Summary that a California poll reported that a majority of people feel the President is not pulling U S troops out of Southeast Asia fast enough and that the majority feel the war Vill be a key is sue in the 1972 campaign
It was requested that you advise the President which poll this is
Please submit your report to the Office of the Staff Secretary
Thank you
cc L Haldeman Alexande r P Butte rfield
6 O~lFInE PlTIAbshy
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iG the doubtLl colurnJ Accoaiingco p()~l co~-e cy
wi~)es out McCloskey with 78 3tt in the ge~1e~al clecto 1
vote for the PresideJt cown 10-1
C ongr e s sional
Caliiol-lia will gain five new seats Lt is ~hought at least three 0 ehe seas will go to Southern California A September poa has Caifornians I
Cranston and Tunney as doing a Ilfair to good job II 1 Y lt -jshy___---________-- 1- - 4------ lt(vI ~t --y~ t-~
Party - ~r- i(-r I r - - __ 4- yshy_ 5 I __~~
Q --v
RN loyalists are woncmg hard to keep the various volunteer GOP oups ~~l
line Rightists are calling for oppositon to tr-Le President but the Reaga1 support muffles this somewhat
Chairman - Putnam Livern~ore - - 4151421 -3430
Natll COYrlLnitteemcn - Thornas C Reed 41556-730 Natl COITunitteewornan - Mrs Eleacor R Ricg -- 714435-4524
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
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70
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55
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45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
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--
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ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
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The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
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I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
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October will show September and October etc)
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ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
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III August observations only
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10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
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Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
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i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
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The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
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Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
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ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
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oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
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S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
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gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
Box Number Folder Number Document Date Document Type Document DescriptionNo Date Subject
44 9 10121971 Memo To HR Haldeman From Gordon Strachan RE LA and Orange County phone study that states Kennedy but not Muskie would win CA in a three way race Listening Post data and Issue Clusters Over Time data attached 7pgs
Campaign
44 9 10131971 Memo To Bob Haldeman From Harry Dent RE For Your Information RE September Listening Post survey results from Thomas C Reed Results and Issue Clusters attached 5pgs
Campaign
Thursday February 09 2012 Page 2 of 2
J)ate
H R HALDEMAN O~~
FROM I ~RRY DENT~~ please handle_______
For your infomation
I
L is TEN I N GPOST
~rel1minary Survey Resllts I 12 December 1971 1013 Telephone Interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties I November 1971
1 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
This Survey November October September August
E Muskie 31 30 34 18 E Kennedy 27 26 29 32 H Humphrey 15 13 8 13 G McGovern 7 10 10 8 H Jackson 6 2 2 4 J Lindsay 2 5 5 8 All others 13 12 12 19
f
bull 2 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support II Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for re-election l would you vote for him
No Yes No Depends Answer
This survey I November 273 438 264 26 October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Head to Head No RNixon E Kennedy G WaBre Answer
Total LA amp Orange Co 417 394 73 116
Republicans 840 77 37 47 Democrats 203 604 7 8 115 Independents 362 310 132 195
L A County only 390 425 7 4 111 Orange County only 585 205 7 0 140
Total L A amp Orange Co I
August survey 394 440 85 80
Los Angeles County is reasonably representative of California as a whole
THE WHITE HOUSE IJ -(l WASHINGTON tPshy
FROM MORT ALLIN ~~~ TO 0QfdonSt-rCtcha
FYI
I _middotAIY~middotL I II h(~-A-xrr r1~~~--d 4 Iltor~ 1Lgt (0 If
rJ xVV1 ~ ~IVJI r-~ o~tr -t d
20 Patf-FriDec3 1971 Jou5lnGrlt~timrl Judge Files I p PRICES EFFECTIVE
POLL FINDS REVERSAL Suit to Test I~~ Tf~~~~middotDEC5
I I f
Shift Agains~ Nixons E~~~~~~ I tgt I PT r=I- ~VIetnan1 Policy Soenf
i SA FRANCISCO IAI shy than Nix 0 n s timetable
For the first time public calls for Field said opinion in Califor1ia has Among Democrats 59 turned against Pesident want a speedier withdrawmiddot Nixons handling of the a1 and 22 support the Yietnam war the Califor
present pace he saidnia Poll said Thursday Ihile among Republicans A surey completed last 430 want a quicker reo
month also shows that a turn and 4-1 agree with m a j 0 r i t Y favos faster Nixons plans t roo p withdra 31 and Field said that 69 of that more than [0 out of three Californias think ~g~Sarq~~~~ii~~~dke~ei~~the war will be til major in next ycars Presidentialissue in the 1972 oresidenmiddot race 74 of the Demoshytial campaign Fjll direcshy crats and 620 of the Re-tor Iervin D Field reshy publicans see it as a majorported factor he said
vltons recuiring jul~es to I ~r I -4~ rrtke a leave of abltence or
leslgn upon LeCOlTIlllg canmiddot dldates for oiher publIc ofmiddot fie e s we r e challenged Thursday in ~ uit flIed by Citrus ~runlclpal Judge JohnMAlex
His Superior Court commiddot ljlaint was brought againstthe count and the Board S H kor upernsors e as eu
that he be paid S601238
~~~rc~h~o rl~~i~~neb~~~~~when he took a Jeae of absencE for an unsucce~s-ful try for election as a Reshypublican from the 24th Congresional District
)
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section of 1Oll7 Californimiddot ans oyer the age of 18 rtshyvealed that j6~o disapshyprcgted of ~lr lxons polio cili$ 43 appoved and i 11 had no opLlion Field If said tj
In May 1971 he said those approYin prevailed It oyer opponents 45lt to 4Y~ while in June 1970 i supporters prevailed 460 I
to 40~c IA total of jc of Calishy
fornians inclt1ing a mamiddot t joritv of DelTIcltral~ and a bull iarge minority of Repuhimiddot can$ want US troops to come home at a faster rate
Parlier Mayor fa Face Trial
SABBATH SERVICES-ALL ARE WELCOME (venng Strvitt-frdoy De( 3 01 815 PM
BISHOP GERALD KENNEDY Bishop of the United Methodist Church
Morning Service-Saturday Dec 4 1030 AM RAB81GOLOMARK
WILL SPEAK
drmfltioft egar~in tittrotioft fof the IdgQr f Mognin reHgou$ 5lhool memberbull bull hip ancl bus lervicll mQY e ebtoine Ity tallill the Tempte Offic
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COMI
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8TRACKT COMPARI
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 6 1971 DETERMINED TO BE Aft
ADMINIS ~ h lARKING EO )20~~ ~~~ion 6-102
By_W-IJML_hAL bull vltd e_5J3~~_
GQ~FIDEHTIiL
MEMORANDUM FOR GHARLESmiddotW GOLSON r FROM JON M HUNTSMA~
SUBJECT California Poll
It was reported in the December 3 1971 News Summary that a California poll reported that a majority of people feel the President is not pulling U S troops out of Southeast Asia fast enough and that the majority feel the war Vill be a key is sue in the 1972 campaign
It was requested that you advise the President which poll this is
Please submit your report to the Office of the Staff Secretary
Thank you
cc L Haldeman Alexande r P Butte rfield
6 O~lFInE PlTIAbshy
~ -- J_bull_~ _---I _ 1-_-
so r2Sl4~C
1
iG the doubtLl colurnJ Accoaiingco p()~l co~-e cy
wi~)es out McCloskey with 78 3tt in the ge~1e~al clecto 1
vote for the PresideJt cown 10-1
C ongr e s sional
Caliiol-lia will gain five new seats Lt is ~hought at least three 0 ehe seas will go to Southern California A September poa has Caifornians I
Cranston and Tunney as doing a Ilfair to good job II 1 Y lt -jshy___---________-- 1- - 4------ lt(vI ~t --y~ t-~
Party - ~r- i(-r I r - - __ 4- yshy_ 5 I __~~
Q --v
RN loyalists are woncmg hard to keep the various volunteer GOP oups ~~l
line Rightists are calling for oppositon to tr-Le President but the Reaga1 support muffles this somewhat
Chairman - Putnam Livern~ore - - 4151421 -3430
Natll COYrlLnitteemcn - Thornas C Reed 41556-730 Natl COITunitteewornan - Mrs Eleacor R Ricg -- 714435-4524
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
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--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
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October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
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Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
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August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
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October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
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1972
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III August observations only
I
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TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
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shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
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rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
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Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
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~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
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I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
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~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
J)ate
H R HALDEMAN O~~
FROM I ~RRY DENT~~ please handle_______
For your infomation
I
L is TEN I N GPOST
~rel1minary Survey Resllts I 12 December 1971 1013 Telephone Interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties I November 1971
1 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
This Survey November October September August
E Muskie 31 30 34 18 E Kennedy 27 26 29 32 H Humphrey 15 13 8 13 G McGovern 7 10 10 8 H Jackson 6 2 2 4 J Lindsay 2 5 5 8 All others 13 12 12 19
f
bull 2 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support II Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for re-election l would you vote for him
No Yes No Depends Answer
This survey I November 273 438 264 26 October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Head to Head No RNixon E Kennedy G WaBre Answer
Total LA amp Orange Co 417 394 73 116
Republicans 840 77 37 47 Democrats 203 604 7 8 115 Independents 362 310 132 195
L A County only 390 425 7 4 111 Orange County only 585 205 7 0 140
Total L A amp Orange Co I
August survey 394 440 85 80
Los Angeles County is reasonably representative of California as a whole
THE WHITE HOUSE IJ -(l WASHINGTON tPshy
FROM MORT ALLIN ~~~ TO 0QfdonSt-rCtcha
FYI
I _middotAIY~middotL I II h(~-A-xrr r1~~~--d 4 Iltor~ 1Lgt (0 If
rJ xVV1 ~ ~IVJI r-~ o~tr -t d
20 Patf-FriDec3 1971 Jou5lnGrlt~timrl Judge Files I p PRICES EFFECTIVE
POLL FINDS REVERSAL Suit to Test I~~ Tf~~~~middotDEC5
I I f
Shift Agains~ Nixons E~~~~~~ I tgt I PT r=I- ~VIetnan1 Policy Soenf
i SA FRANCISCO IAI shy than Nix 0 n s timetable
For the first time public calls for Field said opinion in Califor1ia has Among Democrats 59 turned against Pesident want a speedier withdrawmiddot Nixons handling of the a1 and 22 support the Yietnam war the Califor
present pace he saidnia Poll said Thursday Ihile among Republicans A surey completed last 430 want a quicker reo
month also shows that a turn and 4-1 agree with m a j 0 r i t Y favos faster Nixons plans t roo p withdra 31 and Field said that 69 of that more than [0 out of three Californias think ~g~Sarq~~~~ii~~~dke~ei~~the war will be til major in next ycars Presidentialissue in the 1972 oresidenmiddot race 74 of the Demoshytial campaign Fjll direcshy crats and 620 of the Re-tor Iervin D Field reshy publicans see it as a majorported factor he said
vltons recuiring jul~es to I ~r I -4~ rrtke a leave of abltence or
leslgn upon LeCOlTIlllg canmiddot dldates for oiher publIc ofmiddot fie e s we r e challenged Thursday in ~ uit flIed by Citrus ~runlclpal Judge JohnMAlex
His Superior Court commiddot ljlaint was brought againstthe count and the Board S H kor upernsors e as eu
that he be paid S601238
~~~rc~h~o rl~~i~~neb~~~~~when he took a Jeae of absencE for an unsucce~s-ful try for election as a Reshypublican from the 24th Congresional District
)
I ~~7 fy-r I ~r r~ f i
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) -- _
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I - id~ i -___bullbull__________bullbull__-____
r
bullI------~-----Interviews with a crossshy
section of 1Oll7 Californimiddot ans oyer the age of 18 rtshyvealed that j6~o disapshyprcgted of ~lr lxons polio cili$ 43 appoved and i 11 had no opLlion Field If said tj
In May 1971 he said those approYin prevailed It oyer opponents 45lt to 4Y~ while in June 1970 i supporters prevailed 460 I
to 40~c IA total of jc of Calishy
fornians inclt1ing a mamiddot t joritv of DelTIcltral~ and a bull iarge minority of Repuhimiddot can$ want US troops to come home at a faster rate
Parlier Mayor fa Face Trial
SABBATH SERVICES-ALL ARE WELCOME (venng Strvitt-frdoy De( 3 01 815 PM
BISHOP GERALD KENNEDY Bishop of the United Methodist Church
Morning Service-Saturday Dec 4 1030 AM RAB81GOLOMARK
WILL SPEAK
drmfltioft egar~in tittrotioft fof the IdgQr f Mognin reHgou$ 5lhool memberbull bull hip ancl bus lervicll mQY e ebtoine Ity tallill the Tempte Offic
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Aium 0i 1971 bull ne Or~ia 1 Snpound~17 S~
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COMI
r (
8TRACKT COMPARI
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 6 1971 DETERMINED TO BE Aft
ADMINIS ~ h lARKING EO )20~~ ~~~ion 6-102
By_W-IJML_hAL bull vltd e_5J3~~_
GQ~FIDEHTIiL
MEMORANDUM FOR GHARLESmiddotW GOLSON r FROM JON M HUNTSMA~
SUBJECT California Poll
It was reported in the December 3 1971 News Summary that a California poll reported that a majority of people feel the President is not pulling U S troops out of Southeast Asia fast enough and that the majority feel the war Vill be a key is sue in the 1972 campaign
It was requested that you advise the President which poll this is
Please submit your report to the Office of the Staff Secretary
Thank you
cc L Haldeman Alexande r P Butte rfield
6 O~lFInE PlTIAbshy
~ -- J_bull_~ _---I _ 1-_-
so r2Sl4~C
1
iG the doubtLl colurnJ Accoaiingco p()~l co~-e cy
wi~)es out McCloskey with 78 3tt in the ge~1e~al clecto 1
vote for the PresideJt cown 10-1
C ongr e s sional
Caliiol-lia will gain five new seats Lt is ~hought at least three 0 ehe seas will go to Southern California A September poa has Caifornians I
Cranston and Tunney as doing a Ilfair to good job II 1 Y lt -jshy___---________-- 1- - 4------ lt(vI ~t --y~ t-~
Party - ~r- i(-r I r - - __ 4- yshy_ 5 I __~~
Q --v
RN loyalists are woncmg hard to keep the various volunteer GOP oups ~~l
line Rightists are calling for oppositon to tr-Le President but the Reaga1 support muffles this somewhat
Chairman - Putnam Livern~ore - - 4151421 -3430
Natll COYrlLnitteemcn - Thornas C Reed 41556-730 Natl COITunitteewornan - Mrs Eleacor R Ricg -- 714435-4524
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
I
November-
I I bull ~ 1 k
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--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
bull bull 1I bull I ~ i 1 1i
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bull I I I bullbull bull bullI middot I J I I l ~ I bull I bull bull bull r iIf bull bull _~ bullbull L-L _____ ~l ~_~ __ _~ ~~- ~~ J-L_
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October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
- -- middot-1bull shy ----I-~~~-middotI~~~-middot-l--
Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
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he ~Ocllt~Gtbook Erv iionm6nt
0
------- bull -----bull bull t __ _ bull - bull bullbull _ bull bullbull _ _ _ _- I --
I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
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bull August observltions only Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a two-month moving average of the
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
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I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
bullbull Percentages for September and each month thereaFter are based on a twq-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg I September shows moving average of August and September October wHl show Septemberand October etc)
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
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- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
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shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
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~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
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Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
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middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
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I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
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d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
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I I I I t II 1 I 1
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~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
I
L is TEN I N GPOST
~rel1minary Survey Resllts I 12 December 1971 1013 Telephone Interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties I November 1971
1 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
This Survey November October September August
E Muskie 31 30 34 18 E Kennedy 27 26 29 32 H Humphrey 15 13 8 13 G McGovern 7 10 10 8 H Jackson 6 2 2 4 J Lindsay 2 5 5 8 All others 13 12 12 19
f
bull 2 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support II Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for re-election l would you vote for him
No Yes No Depends Answer
This survey I November 273 438 264 26 October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Head to Head No RNixon E Kennedy G WaBre Answer
Total LA amp Orange Co 417 394 73 116
Republicans 840 77 37 47 Democrats 203 604 7 8 115 Independents 362 310 132 195
L A County only 390 425 7 4 111 Orange County only 585 205 7 0 140
Total L A amp Orange Co I
August survey 394 440 85 80
Los Angeles County is reasonably representative of California as a whole
THE WHITE HOUSE IJ -(l WASHINGTON tPshy
FROM MORT ALLIN ~~~ TO 0QfdonSt-rCtcha
FYI
I _middotAIY~middotL I II h(~-A-xrr r1~~~--d 4 Iltor~ 1Lgt (0 If
rJ xVV1 ~ ~IVJI r-~ o~tr -t d
20 Patf-FriDec3 1971 Jou5lnGrlt~timrl Judge Files I p PRICES EFFECTIVE
POLL FINDS REVERSAL Suit to Test I~~ Tf~~~~middotDEC5
I I f
Shift Agains~ Nixons E~~~~~~ I tgt I PT r=I- ~VIetnan1 Policy Soenf
i SA FRANCISCO IAI shy than Nix 0 n s timetable
For the first time public calls for Field said opinion in Califor1ia has Among Democrats 59 turned against Pesident want a speedier withdrawmiddot Nixons handling of the a1 and 22 support the Yietnam war the Califor
present pace he saidnia Poll said Thursday Ihile among Republicans A surey completed last 430 want a quicker reo
month also shows that a turn and 4-1 agree with m a j 0 r i t Y favos faster Nixons plans t roo p withdra 31 and Field said that 69 of that more than [0 out of three Californias think ~g~Sarq~~~~ii~~~dke~ei~~the war will be til major in next ycars Presidentialissue in the 1972 oresidenmiddot race 74 of the Demoshytial campaign Fjll direcshy crats and 620 of the Re-tor Iervin D Field reshy publicans see it as a majorported factor he said
vltons recuiring jul~es to I ~r I -4~ rrtke a leave of abltence or
leslgn upon LeCOlTIlllg canmiddot dldates for oiher publIc ofmiddot fie e s we r e challenged Thursday in ~ uit flIed by Citrus ~runlclpal Judge JohnMAlex
His Superior Court commiddot ljlaint was brought againstthe count and the Board S H kor upernsors e as eu
that he be paid S601238
~~~rc~h~o rl~~i~~neb~~~~~when he took a Jeae of absencE for an unsucce~s-ful try for election as a Reshypublican from the 24th Congresional District
)
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I - id~ i -___bullbull__________bullbull__-____
r
bullI------~-----Interviews with a crossshy
section of 1Oll7 Californimiddot ans oyer the age of 18 rtshyvealed that j6~o disapshyprcgted of ~lr lxons polio cili$ 43 appoved and i 11 had no opLlion Field If said tj
In May 1971 he said those approYin prevailed It oyer opponents 45lt to 4Y~ while in June 1970 i supporters prevailed 460 I
to 40~c IA total of jc of Calishy
fornians inclt1ing a mamiddot t joritv of DelTIcltral~ and a bull iarge minority of Repuhimiddot can$ want US troops to come home at a faster rate
Parlier Mayor fa Face Trial
SABBATH SERVICES-ALL ARE WELCOME (venng Strvitt-frdoy De( 3 01 815 PM
BISHOP GERALD KENNEDY Bishop of the United Methodist Church
Morning Service-Saturday Dec 4 1030 AM RAB81GOLOMARK
WILL SPEAK
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COMI
r (
8TRACKT COMPARI
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 6 1971 DETERMINED TO BE Aft
ADMINIS ~ h lARKING EO )20~~ ~~~ion 6-102
By_W-IJML_hAL bull vltd e_5J3~~_
GQ~FIDEHTIiL
MEMORANDUM FOR GHARLESmiddotW GOLSON r FROM JON M HUNTSMA~
SUBJECT California Poll
It was reported in the December 3 1971 News Summary that a California poll reported that a majority of people feel the President is not pulling U S troops out of Southeast Asia fast enough and that the majority feel the war Vill be a key is sue in the 1972 campaign
It was requested that you advise the President which poll this is
Please submit your report to the Office of the Staff Secretary
Thank you
cc L Haldeman Alexande r P Butte rfield
6 O~lFInE PlTIAbshy
~ -- J_bull_~ _---I _ 1-_-
so r2Sl4~C
1
iG the doubtLl colurnJ Accoaiingco p()~l co~-e cy
wi~)es out McCloskey with 78 3tt in the ge~1e~al clecto 1
vote for the PresideJt cown 10-1
C ongr e s sional
Caliiol-lia will gain five new seats Lt is ~hought at least three 0 ehe seas will go to Southern California A September poa has Caifornians I
Cranston and Tunney as doing a Ilfair to good job II 1 Y lt -jshy___---________-- 1- - 4------ lt(vI ~t --y~ t-~
Party - ~r- i(-r I r - - __ 4- yshy_ 5 I __~~
Q --v
RN loyalists are woncmg hard to keep the various volunteer GOP oups ~~l
line Rightists are calling for oppositon to tr-Le President but the Reaga1 support muffles this somewhat
Chairman - Putnam Livern~ore - - 4151421 -3430
Natll COYrlLnitteemcn - Thornas C Reed 41556-730 Natl COITunitteewornan - Mrs Eleacor R Ricg -- 714435-4524
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
I
November-
I I bull ~ 1 k
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--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
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October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
- -- middot-1bull shy ----I-~~~-middotI~~~-middot-l--
Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
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0
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I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
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current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
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1972
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I bull
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III August observations only
I
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TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
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i --bull + shy
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i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
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_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
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gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
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---- 1 -
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13 iii
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I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
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d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
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gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
THE WHITE HOUSE IJ -(l WASHINGTON tPshy
FROM MORT ALLIN ~~~ TO 0QfdonSt-rCtcha
FYI
I _middotAIY~middotL I II h(~-A-xrr r1~~~--d 4 Iltor~ 1Lgt (0 If
rJ xVV1 ~ ~IVJI r-~ o~tr -t d
20 Patf-FriDec3 1971 Jou5lnGrlt~timrl Judge Files I p PRICES EFFECTIVE
POLL FINDS REVERSAL Suit to Test I~~ Tf~~~~middotDEC5
I I f
Shift Agains~ Nixons E~~~~~~ I tgt I PT r=I- ~VIetnan1 Policy Soenf
i SA FRANCISCO IAI shy than Nix 0 n s timetable
For the first time public calls for Field said opinion in Califor1ia has Among Democrats 59 turned against Pesident want a speedier withdrawmiddot Nixons handling of the a1 and 22 support the Yietnam war the Califor
present pace he saidnia Poll said Thursday Ihile among Republicans A surey completed last 430 want a quicker reo
month also shows that a turn and 4-1 agree with m a j 0 r i t Y favos faster Nixons plans t roo p withdra 31 and Field said that 69 of that more than [0 out of three Californias think ~g~Sarq~~~~ii~~~dke~ei~~the war will be til major in next ycars Presidentialissue in the 1972 oresidenmiddot race 74 of the Demoshytial campaign Fjll direcshy crats and 620 of the Re-tor Iervin D Field reshy publicans see it as a majorported factor he said
vltons recuiring jul~es to I ~r I -4~ rrtke a leave of abltence or
leslgn upon LeCOlTIlllg canmiddot dldates for oiher publIc ofmiddot fie e s we r e challenged Thursday in ~ uit flIed by Citrus ~runlclpal Judge JohnMAlex
His Superior Court commiddot ljlaint was brought againstthe count and the Board S H kor upernsors e as eu
that he be paid S601238
~~~rc~h~o rl~~i~~neb~~~~~when he took a Jeae of absencE for an unsucce~s-ful try for election as a Reshypublican from the 24th Congresional District
)
I ~~7 fy-r I ~r r~ f i
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r
bullI------~-----Interviews with a crossshy
section of 1Oll7 Californimiddot ans oyer the age of 18 rtshyvealed that j6~o disapshyprcgted of ~lr lxons polio cili$ 43 appoved and i 11 had no opLlion Field If said tj
In May 1971 he said those approYin prevailed It oyer opponents 45lt to 4Y~ while in June 1970 i supporters prevailed 460 I
to 40~c IA total of jc of Calishy
fornians inclt1ing a mamiddot t joritv of DelTIcltral~ and a bull iarge minority of Repuhimiddot can$ want US troops to come home at a faster rate
Parlier Mayor fa Face Trial
SABBATH SERVICES-ALL ARE WELCOME (venng Strvitt-frdoy De( 3 01 815 PM
BISHOP GERALD KENNEDY Bishop of the United Methodist Church
Morning Service-Saturday Dec 4 1030 AM RAB81GOLOMARK
WILL SPEAK
drmfltioft egar~in tittrotioft fof the IdgQr f Mognin reHgou$ 5lhool memberbull bull hip ancl bus lervicll mQY e ebtoine Ity tallill the Tempte Offic
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COMI
r (
8TRACKT COMPARI
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 6 1971 DETERMINED TO BE Aft
ADMINIS ~ h lARKING EO )20~~ ~~~ion 6-102
By_W-IJML_hAL bull vltd e_5J3~~_
GQ~FIDEHTIiL
MEMORANDUM FOR GHARLESmiddotW GOLSON r FROM JON M HUNTSMA~
SUBJECT California Poll
It was reported in the December 3 1971 News Summary that a California poll reported that a majority of people feel the President is not pulling U S troops out of Southeast Asia fast enough and that the majority feel the war Vill be a key is sue in the 1972 campaign
It was requested that you advise the President which poll this is
Please submit your report to the Office of the Staff Secretary
Thank you
cc L Haldeman Alexande r P Butte rfield
6 O~lFInE PlTIAbshy
~ -- J_bull_~ _---I _ 1-_-
so r2Sl4~C
1
iG the doubtLl colurnJ Accoaiingco p()~l co~-e cy
wi~)es out McCloskey with 78 3tt in the ge~1e~al clecto 1
vote for the PresideJt cown 10-1
C ongr e s sional
Caliiol-lia will gain five new seats Lt is ~hought at least three 0 ehe seas will go to Southern California A September poa has Caifornians I
Cranston and Tunney as doing a Ilfair to good job II 1 Y lt -jshy___---________-- 1- - 4------ lt(vI ~t --y~ t-~
Party - ~r- i(-r I r - - __ 4- yshy_ 5 I __~~
Q --v
RN loyalists are woncmg hard to keep the various volunteer GOP oups ~~l
line Rightists are calling for oppositon to tr-Le President but the Reaga1 support muffles this somewhat
Chairman - Putnam Livern~ore - - 4151421 -3430
Natll COYrlLnitteemcn - Thornas C Reed 41556-730 Natl COITunitteewornan - Mrs Eleacor R Ricg -- 714435-4524
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
I
November-
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--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
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IIlt August obscrvutions only based on a two-month moving average of the Percentages for September and each month thereafter are shows moving average of August and Septembercurrent month plus the one prior to it (eg September
October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
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- -- middot-1bull shy ----I-~~~-middotI~~~-middot-l--
Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
4 bullbull _~ ------_ ------- _
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he ~Ocllt~Gtbook Erv iionm6nt
0
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I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
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current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
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I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
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TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
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i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
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_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
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Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
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---- 1 -
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13 iii
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I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
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d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
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I I I I t II 1 I 1
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gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
I _middotAIY~middotL I II h(~-A-xrr r1~~~--d 4 Iltor~ 1Lgt (0 If
rJ xVV1 ~ ~IVJI r-~ o~tr -t d
20 Patf-FriDec3 1971 Jou5lnGrlt~timrl Judge Files I p PRICES EFFECTIVE
POLL FINDS REVERSAL Suit to Test I~~ Tf~~~~middotDEC5
I I f
Shift Agains~ Nixons E~~~~~~ I tgt I PT r=I- ~VIetnan1 Policy Soenf
i SA FRANCISCO IAI shy than Nix 0 n s timetable
For the first time public calls for Field said opinion in Califor1ia has Among Democrats 59 turned against Pesident want a speedier withdrawmiddot Nixons handling of the a1 and 22 support the Yietnam war the Califor
present pace he saidnia Poll said Thursday Ihile among Republicans A surey completed last 430 want a quicker reo
month also shows that a turn and 4-1 agree with m a j 0 r i t Y favos faster Nixons plans t roo p withdra 31 and Field said that 69 of that more than [0 out of three Californias think ~g~Sarq~~~~ii~~~dke~ei~~the war will be til major in next ycars Presidentialissue in the 1972 oresidenmiddot race 74 of the Demoshytial campaign Fjll direcshy crats and 620 of the Re-tor Iervin D Field reshy publicans see it as a majorported factor he said
vltons recuiring jul~es to I ~r I -4~ rrtke a leave of abltence or
leslgn upon LeCOlTIlllg canmiddot dldates for oiher publIc ofmiddot fie e s we r e challenged Thursday in ~ uit flIed by Citrus ~runlclpal Judge JohnMAlex
His Superior Court commiddot ljlaint was brought againstthe count and the Board S H kor upernsors e as eu
that he be paid S601238
~~~rc~h~o rl~~i~~neb~~~~~when he took a Jeae of absencE for an unsucce~s-ful try for election as a Reshypublican from the 24th Congresional District
)
I ~~7 fy-r I ~r r~ f i
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) -- _
Qi~l~~l~ ~ ~~~ f r lr Tshy~ 1 I i _ 11 U L I
I - id~ i -___bullbull__________bullbull__-____
r
bullI------~-----Interviews with a crossshy
section of 1Oll7 Californimiddot ans oyer the age of 18 rtshyvealed that j6~o disapshyprcgted of ~lr lxons polio cili$ 43 appoved and i 11 had no opLlion Field If said tj
In May 1971 he said those approYin prevailed It oyer opponents 45lt to 4Y~ while in June 1970 i supporters prevailed 460 I
to 40~c IA total of jc of Calishy
fornians inclt1ing a mamiddot t joritv of DelTIcltral~ and a bull iarge minority of Repuhimiddot can$ want US troops to come home at a faster rate
Parlier Mayor fa Face Trial
SABBATH SERVICES-ALL ARE WELCOME (venng Strvitt-frdoy De( 3 01 815 PM
BISHOP GERALD KENNEDY Bishop of the United Methodist Church
Morning Service-Saturday Dec 4 1030 AM RAB81GOLOMARK
WILL SPEAK
drmfltioft egar~in tittrotioft fof the IdgQr f Mognin reHgou$ 5lhool memberbull bull hip ancl bus lervicll mQY e ebtoine Ity tallill the Tempte Offic
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COMI
r (
8TRACKT COMPARI
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 6 1971 DETERMINED TO BE Aft
ADMINIS ~ h lARKING EO )20~~ ~~~ion 6-102
By_W-IJML_hAL bull vltd e_5J3~~_
GQ~FIDEHTIiL
MEMORANDUM FOR GHARLESmiddotW GOLSON r FROM JON M HUNTSMA~
SUBJECT California Poll
It was reported in the December 3 1971 News Summary that a California poll reported that a majority of people feel the President is not pulling U S troops out of Southeast Asia fast enough and that the majority feel the war Vill be a key is sue in the 1972 campaign
It was requested that you advise the President which poll this is
Please submit your report to the Office of the Staff Secretary
Thank you
cc L Haldeman Alexande r P Butte rfield
6 O~lFInE PlTIAbshy
~ -- J_bull_~ _---I _ 1-_-
so r2Sl4~C
1
iG the doubtLl colurnJ Accoaiingco p()~l co~-e cy
wi~)es out McCloskey with 78 3tt in the ge~1e~al clecto 1
vote for the PresideJt cown 10-1
C ongr e s sional
Caliiol-lia will gain five new seats Lt is ~hought at least three 0 ehe seas will go to Southern California A September poa has Caifornians I
Cranston and Tunney as doing a Ilfair to good job II 1 Y lt -jshy___---________-- 1- - 4------ lt(vI ~t --y~ t-~
Party - ~r- i(-r I r - - __ 4- yshy_ 5 I __~~
Q --v
RN loyalists are woncmg hard to keep the various volunteer GOP oups ~~l
line Rightists are calling for oppositon to tr-Le President but the Reaga1 support muffles this somewhat
Chairman - Putnam Livern~ore - - 4151421 -3430
Natll COYrlLnitteemcn - Thornas C Reed 41556-730 Natl COITunitteewornan - Mrs Eleacor R Ricg -- 714435-4524
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
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--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
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October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
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Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
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0
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( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
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current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
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1972
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I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
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TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
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s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
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i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
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shy
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_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
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~
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rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
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Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
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I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
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I
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----
-
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1
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j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
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i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
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I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
MEMORANDUM
THE WHITE HOUSE
WASHINGTON
December 6 1971 DETERMINED TO BE Aft
ADMINIS ~ h lARKING EO )20~~ ~~~ion 6-102
By_W-IJML_hAL bull vltd e_5J3~~_
GQ~FIDEHTIiL
MEMORANDUM FOR GHARLESmiddotW GOLSON r FROM JON M HUNTSMA~
SUBJECT California Poll
It was reported in the December 3 1971 News Summary that a California poll reported that a majority of people feel the President is not pulling U S troops out of Southeast Asia fast enough and that the majority feel the war Vill be a key is sue in the 1972 campaign
It was requested that you advise the President which poll this is
Please submit your report to the Office of the Staff Secretary
Thank you
cc L Haldeman Alexande r P Butte rfield
6 O~lFInE PlTIAbshy
~ -- J_bull_~ _---I _ 1-_-
so r2Sl4~C
1
iG the doubtLl colurnJ Accoaiingco p()~l co~-e cy
wi~)es out McCloskey with 78 3tt in the ge~1e~al clecto 1
vote for the PresideJt cown 10-1
C ongr e s sional
Caliiol-lia will gain five new seats Lt is ~hought at least three 0 ehe seas will go to Southern California A September poa has Caifornians I
Cranston and Tunney as doing a Ilfair to good job II 1 Y lt -jshy___---________-- 1- - 4------ lt(vI ~t --y~ t-~
Party - ~r- i(-r I r - - __ 4- yshy_ 5 I __~~
Q --v
RN loyalists are woncmg hard to keep the various volunteer GOP oups ~~l
line Rightists are calling for oppositon to tr-Le President but the Reaga1 support muffles this somewhat
Chairman - Putnam Livern~ore - - 4151421 -3430
Natll COYrlLnitteemcn - Thornas C Reed 41556-730 Natl COITunitteewornan - Mrs Eleacor R Ricg -- 714435-4524
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
I
November-
I I bull ~ 1 k
i
I
it
~ 1 ~
I J I
I
i
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I
I I I
---- shy
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bull
I
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bull
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-
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~ ~f ---z
--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
bull bull 1I bull I ~ i 1 1i
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bull I I I bullbull bull bullI middot I J I I l ~ I bull I bull bull bull r iIf bull bull _~ bullbull L-L _____ ~l ~_~ __ _~ ~~- ~~ J-L_
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I J I 1 t i I I bull r ~ bull It ~ bull ~ ~ I j I tmiddot
I I i I
l J [ I i bullI - I I ~ ~ I ~ ~ I ~ bull
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1 1 ~
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j 1
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I bull I I bull bull I ~ ~ I
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t bullbull bull I bull ~
1 bullbullbull I I ~ -
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i middot1 I 0 bull
bull 1 I
j
IIlt August obscrvutions only based on a two-month moving average of the Percentages for September and each month thereafter are shows moving average of August and Septembercurrent month plus the one prior to it (eg September
October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
- -- middot-1bull shy ----I-~~~-middotI~~~-middot-l--
Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
4 bullbull _~ ------_ ------- _
I
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I
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he ~Ocllt~Gtbook Erv iionm6nt
0
------- bull -----bull bull t __ _ bull - bull bullbull _ bull bullbull _ _ _ _- I --
I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
1
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middot bull bull o f t bull shy middot I
l I bull middot I
bull I I bullbull I I 1 I
I I bull
I j bullbull bull bull 1
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middot 1 1 I ~
imiddot
J
bull August observltions only Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a two-month moving average of the
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
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-- ----_-bull_ bull 1- shy ----------1
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I
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~ ~- - ~T ~- -II------ ---shy ---~~- shy_ r---~r--middot middot middot- middot middot-middot-middot--- J bullbullbull bull shy bull-
bull bull - bull ~ T WFaL e) - -j ------------ j ----- _-___ ~ __----1
I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
bullbull Percentages for September and each month thereaFter are based on a twq-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg I September shows moving average of August and September October wHl show Septemberand October etc)
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
~ -- J_bull_~ _---I _ 1-_-
so r2Sl4~C
1
iG the doubtLl colurnJ Accoaiingco p()~l co~-e cy
wi~)es out McCloskey with 78 3tt in the ge~1e~al clecto 1
vote for the PresideJt cown 10-1
C ongr e s sional
Caliiol-lia will gain five new seats Lt is ~hought at least three 0 ehe seas will go to Southern California A September poa has Caifornians I
Cranston and Tunney as doing a Ilfair to good job II 1 Y lt -jshy___---________-- 1- - 4------ lt(vI ~t --y~ t-~
Party - ~r- i(-r I r - - __ 4- yshy_ 5 I __~~
Q --v
RN loyalists are woncmg hard to keep the various volunteer GOP oups ~~l
line Rightists are calling for oppositon to tr-Le President but the Reaga1 support muffles this somewhat
Chairman - Putnam Livern~ore - - 4151421 -3430
Natll COYrlLnitteemcn - Thornas C Reed 41556-730 Natl COITunitteewornan - Mrs Eleacor R Ricg -- 714435-4524
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
I
November-
I I bull ~ 1 k
i
I
it
~ 1 ~
I J I
I
i
~j--- I bull 1 ------~ I middotmiddot1 i I - shy i bull bull
I
I I I
---- shy
- shy ~ I I
bull I
bull
I
bull t
bull
i-]lt------shy ~ ~ ~ I 1
-
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imiddot
~ ~f ---z
--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
bull bull 1I bull I ~ i 1 1i
I I 11 tmiddotmiddot r I I i I bullbull I I I I I ~ I
bull I I I bullbull bull bullI middot I J I I l ~ I bull I bull bull bull r iIf bull bull _~ bullbull L-L _____ ~l ~_~ __ _~ ~~- ~~ J-L_
~--f-~~ ---- J bullbull bull I I bull fl I I I I
I J I 1 t i I I bull r ~ bull It ~ bull ~ ~ I j I tmiddot
I I i I
l J [ I i bullI - I I ~ ~ I ~ ~ I ~ bull
_ bull _ ~ ----4 L~-~f -l__~_ ~------+----~----+----- -t----+-----~_- -+----1 I bull 1 i I I I ~li~i~I~~
1 1 ~
I 1
I
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j 1
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I bull I I bull bull I ~ ~ I
bull j
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t bullbull bull I bull ~
1 bullbullbull I I ~ -
I1--
i middot1 I 0 bull
bull 1 I
j
IIlt August obscrvutions only based on a two-month moving average of the Percentages for September and each month thereafter are shows moving average of August and Septembercurrent month plus the one prior to it (eg September
October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
- -- middot-1bull shy ----I-~~~-middotI~~~-middot-l--
Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
4 bullbull _~ ------_ ------- _
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bull
I
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he ~Ocllt~Gtbook Erv iionm6nt
0
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I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
1
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middot bull bull o f t bull shy middot I
l I bull middot I
bull I I bullbull I I 1 I
I I bull
I j bullbull bull bull 1
I bull bull bull ~ Ii
middot 1 1 I ~
imiddot
J
bull August observltions only Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a two-month moving average of the
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
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-- ----_-bull_ bull 1- shy ----------1
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bull bull - bull ~ T WFaL e) - -j ------------ j ----- _-___ ~ __----1
I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
bullbull Percentages for September and each month thereaFter are based on a twq-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg I September shows moving average of August and September October wHl show Septemberand October etc)
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
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I
I
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I
I
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----
-
i
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I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
1
iG the doubtLl colurnJ Accoaiingco p()~l co~-e cy
wi~)es out McCloskey with 78 3tt in the ge~1e~al clecto 1
vote for the PresideJt cown 10-1
C ongr e s sional
Caliiol-lia will gain five new seats Lt is ~hought at least three 0 ehe seas will go to Southern California A September poa has Caifornians I
Cranston and Tunney as doing a Ilfair to good job II 1 Y lt -jshy___---________-- 1- - 4------ lt(vI ~t --y~ t-~
Party - ~r- i(-r I r - - __ 4- yshy_ 5 I __~~
Q --v
RN loyalists are woncmg hard to keep the various volunteer GOP oups ~~l
line Rightists are calling for oppositon to tr-Le President but the Reaga1 support muffles this somewhat
Chairman - Putnam Livern~ore - - 4151421 -3430
Natll COYrlLnitteemcn - Thornas C Reed 41556-730 Natl COITunitteewornan - Mrs Eleacor R Ricg -- 714435-4524
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
I
November-
I I bull ~ 1 k
i
I
it
~ 1 ~
I J I
I
i
~j--- I bull 1 ------~ I middotmiddot1 i I - shy i bull bull
I
I I I
---- shy
- shy ~ I I
bull I
bull
I
bull t
bull
i-]lt------shy ~ ~ ~ I 1
-
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imiddot
~ ~f ---z
--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
bull bull 1I bull I ~ i 1 1i
I I 11 tmiddotmiddot r I I i I bullbull I I I I I ~ I
bull I I I bullbull bull bullI middot I J I I l ~ I bull I bull bull bull r iIf bull bull _~ bullbull L-L _____ ~l ~_~ __ _~ ~~- ~~ J-L_
~--f-~~ ---- J bullbull bull I I bull fl I I I I
I J I 1 t i I I bull r ~ bull It ~ bull ~ ~ I j I tmiddot
I I i I
l J [ I i bullI - I I ~ ~ I ~ ~ I ~ bull
_ bull _ ~ ----4 L~-~f -l__~_ ~------+----~----+----- -t----+-----~_- -+----1 I bull 1 i I I I ~li~i~I~~
1 1 ~
I 1
I
1 j
t bull
j 1
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I bull I I bull bull I ~ ~ I
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i I 1 ~
t bullbull bull I bull ~
1 bullbullbull I I ~ -
I1--
i middot1 I 0 bull
bull 1 I
j
IIlt August obscrvutions only based on a two-month moving average of the Percentages for September and each month thereafter are shows moving average of August and Septembercurrent month plus the one prior to it (eg September
October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
- -- middot-1bull shy ----I-~~~-middotI~~~-middot-l--
Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
4 bullbull _~ ------_ ------- _
I
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bull
I
bull -~ I
1 -I I I I ~ I I u-l II --- I I
I
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middotmiddot1 bull bull t o
j i
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middot1 imiddot I
I bull
he ~Ocllt~Gtbook Erv iionm6nt
0
------- bull -----bull bull t __ _ bull - bull bullbull _ bull bullbull _ _ _ _- I --
I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
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current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
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I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
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TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
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I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
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_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
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rr _
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Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
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Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
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---- 1 -
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--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
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~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
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I
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i I j 1 j
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d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
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I I I I t II 1 I 1
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lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
COMMITTEE FOR THE RE-ELECTION OF THE
November 12 1971
FOR GORDON STRA
FROM JEB MAGRUDER
For your information bull
bull
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
I
November-
I I bull ~ 1 k
i
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~ 1 ~
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bull
I
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--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
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bull I I I bullbull bull bullI middot I J I I l ~ I bull I bull bull bull r iIf bull bull _~ bullbull L-L _____ ~l ~_~ __ _~ ~~- ~~ J-L_
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IIlt August obscrvutions only based on a two-month moving average of the Percentages for September and each month thereafter are shows moving average of August and Septembercurrent month plus the one prior to it (eg September
October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
- -- middot-1bull shy ----I-~~~-middotI~~~-middot-l--
Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
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I
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he ~Ocllt~Gtbook Erv iionm6nt
0
------- bull -----bull bull t __ _ bull - bull bullbull _ bull bullbull _ _ _ _- I --
I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
1
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current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
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-- ----_-bull_ bull 1- shy ----------1
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bull bull - bull ~ T WFaL e) - -j ------------ j ----- _-___ ~ __----1
I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
bullbull Percentages for September and each month thereaFter are based on a twq-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg I September shows moving average of August and September October wHl show Septemberand October etc)
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
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shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
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rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
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Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
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I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
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I
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----
-
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1
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~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
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I
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i I j 1 j
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d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
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I I I I t II 1 I 1
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lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
The California Delegation to the Republic~l National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr Jeb S Magruder Committee for the Reelection of the president 1701 pennsylvania Avenue NW 272 Washington D C
Dear Jeb
Enclosed is a summary of our October IIListening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
ve~t regards
~~ Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
~ ~W2- ~pound ~ v-aJV-c~s~ )(4 0
f -If ~ lV~~ D~
T
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
I
November-
I I bull ~ 1 k
i
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--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
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bull I I I bullbull bull bullI middot I J I I l ~ I bull I bull bull bull r iIf bull bull _~ bullbull L-L _____ ~l ~_~ __ _~ ~~- ~~ J-L_
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October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
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Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
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middot1 imiddot I
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he ~Ocllt~Gtbook Erv iionm6nt
0
------- bull -----bull bull t __ _ bull - bull bullbull _ bull bullbull _ _ _ _- I --
I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
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middot bull bull o f t bull shy middot I
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current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
i I I --middot--I middot -~--tmiddot-~---1- I 1 1- Ibull I
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I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
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TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
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i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
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i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
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The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
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rr _
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Ii I I middot il
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Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
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middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
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I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
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gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
tt LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results ~ 9 November ~ 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties ~ October 1971 lt
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
IF the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey tvay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMcRY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present Of those who do respond This SurveyC October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H J3ckson 2 2 4 All Others 12 middot12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-IVallace will be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the ftjAost Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
I
November-
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--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
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October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
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Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
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he ~Ocllt~Gtbook Erv iionm6nt
0
------- bull -----bull bull t __ _ bull - bull bullbull _ bull bullbull _ _ _ _- I --
I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
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middot bull bull o f t bull shy middot I
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current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
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1972
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I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
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I
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TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
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i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
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p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
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Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
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Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
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gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
Sept-oct Ntay August- September-middotmiddotOctobershy
I
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--Jf() oJ ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35KEY
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
Educntion 20
Campus 15o Social Unrest 10
5
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October will show September and October etc)
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
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Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
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( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
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current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
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III August observations only
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TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
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i --bull + shy
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i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
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_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
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~
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rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
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Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
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I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
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1
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middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
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I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
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I
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-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
--
-- - I_~--~ _ _ i -- ~_ ______ _ __--__-_ ___ ~ ~__ ~
0 1 (J
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
I I I
- -- middot-1bull shy ----I-~~~-middotI~~~-middot-l--
Septembershy August September Octobermiddot November December January February Mlrch April middotM October 1970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 1972 19j
_ i middot- middotmiddotmiddot-middotmiddotimiddotmiddotmiddot~middot-middotmiddotmiddotmiddotl-~----middotr ----~----~ --__-__-_ I bull i I I I I I I Imiddot I bull I bull i Imiddot f --middot--)------o--rmiddot Ii i middotmiddot I T-middotmiddot----iH _____-shy
4 bullbull _~ ------_ ------- _
I
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bull
I
bull -~ I
1 -I I I I ~ I I u-l II --- I I
I
- _ - ~ - I ~--T~~------~--j-----r----~- -
middotmiddot1 bull bull t o
j i
I I v I
middot1 imiddot I
I bull
he ~Ocllt~Gtbook Erv iionm6nt
0
------- bull -----bull bull t __ _ bull - bull bullbull _ bull bullbull _ _ _ _- I --
I
( 1iW nlvl Wld Peace I Social Unrest
August observations only raquo~ Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a w9-month moving average of the
current Ionth plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September Octnhc r w U I show Seotemberand O~tober etc_
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
1
I I
I
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I
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1
II
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bull I
i
1 bull I l i
I 1
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--+---
I
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bull bull bull bullbullbull l bull r
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1 bull bull t bull
I
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----J-~ ~~~~ - i middot middotmiddot -~
bull I
bull t
I bull
I f ~ bull bull
--~-I middot 1
bull I bull I bull middoti
middot bull bull o f t bull shy middot I
l I bull middot I
bull I I bullbull I I 1 I
I I bull
I j bullbull bull bull 1
I bull bull bull ~ Ii
middot 1 1 I ~
imiddot
J
bull August observltions only Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a two-month moving average of the
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
i I I --middot--I middot -~--tmiddot-~---1- I 1 1- Ibull I
-- ----_-bull_ bull 1- shy ----------1
i4 1 A II ~ ~ --V j V
-shy1----shy--1shy----- --I-~------I --o-----I-~ (~ I ~ gpound I I 1 - ~ I I
------__----shy
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bull I
I
I
I -
~ ~- - ~T ~- -II------ ---shy ---~~- shy_ r---~r--middot middot middot- middot middot-middot-middot--- J bullbullbull bull shy bull-
bull bull - bull ~ T WFaL e) - -j ------------ j ----- _-___ ~ __----1
I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
bullbull Percentages for September and each month thereaFter are based on a twq-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg I September shows moving average of August and September October wHl show Septemberand October etc)
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
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i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
The California Delegation to the Republican National Convention of 1972
pledged to the re-election of President Richard M Nixon Governor Ronald Reagan Chairman
Thomas C Reed Vice Chairman
10 November 1971
Mr H Robert Haldeman Assistant to the President The White House Washington D C
Dear Bob
Enclosed is a summary of our October Listening Post information for California
If there are particular points of interest to you which you would like to see included in these conshytinuing surveys please let me know
~=dS Thomas C Reed
TCRst
Enclosures
Post Office Box 371 bull San Rafael California 94902 bull (415) 456-7310
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
1
I I
I
_~l _~ 1- _~ ~_~~_ I _~~J~~~__ I I I I
I j I
I
1 I~middot-middot-middot middotmiddotI I I
1
II
bull _-- _1-
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1 I I
1
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I
I
I I
bull ~ bull ) t I bull bull bull i I
bull I
i
1 bull I l i
I 1
bull 1
--+---
I
middotmiddot -T-~I middot
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I I
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L I~_r~ ~ I bull I bull r bull 1 bullbullbull ~ T bull bullbull I bullbull I bullbullbullbull
bull bull bull bullbullbull l bull r
Imiddot ~ __~ ___1 ~_l
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~
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I
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1
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I
bull 1
J I
bull I
bull I
bull I I
bull f bull i I
I I I ~ ~ i
j _ middot~L~~~~_~~----~~
1 bull bull t bull
I
bullbull I bull I
----J-~ ~~~~ - i middot middotmiddot -~
bull I
bull t
I bull
I f ~ bull bull
--~-I middot 1
bull I bull I bull middoti
middot bull bull o f t bull shy middot I
l I bull middot I
bull I I bullbull I I 1 I
I I bull
I j bullbull bull bull 1
I bull bull bull ~ Ii
middot 1 1 I ~
imiddot
J
bull August observltions only Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a two-month moving average of the
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
i I I --middot--I middot -~--tmiddot-~---1- I 1 1- Ibull I
-- ----_-bull_ bull 1- shy ----------1
i4 1 A II ~ ~ --V j V
-shy1----shy--1shy----- --I-~------I --o-----I-~ (~ I ~ gpound I I 1 - ~ I I
------__----shy
~~ --~ I 1
bull I
I
I
I -
~ ~- - ~T ~- -II------ ---shy ---~~- shy_ r---~r--middot middot middot- middot middot-middot-middot--- J bullbullbull bull shy bull-
bull bull - bull ~ T WFaL e) - -j ------------ j ----- _-___ ~ __----1
I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
bullbull Percentages for September and each month thereaFter are based on a twq-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg I September shows moving average of August and September October wHl show Septemberand October etc)
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
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shy
i I
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_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
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~
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rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
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I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
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I
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I
I
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----
-
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1
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-30 middot I
j
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ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
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I
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i I j 1 j
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d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
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lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
If LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 9 November 1971
1004 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties October 1971
( 1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIM~RY (Republicans Only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey fV1ay 1971 October September August Statewide
Nixon 784 804 751 744 McCloskey 58 72 75 77 Undecided 158 123 174 179
Due to the consistency of the response we do not plan to ask this question again until Spring Next month we will attempt to evaluate the UROC challenge
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIM6RY (Democrats Only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated For President
Only 33 respond 67 have no choice at present- Of those who do respond
This Survey October September August
E Muskie 30 34 18 E Kennedy 26 29 32 H Humphrey 13 8 13 G McGovern 10 10 8 J Lindsay 5 5 8 H Jackson 2 2 4 All Others 12 12 19
3 GENERAL ELECTION
To measure a base level of support Now iF the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running For re-election would you vote For him
Yes No Depends No Answer
This Survey October 286 426 255 33 September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
There was no head-to-head question this month Nixon-Kennedy-vallace will c be available next month
4 ISSUES Graphic presentations on the Most Important Problem Facing the State (Nation) are attached
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
1
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I
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1
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bull I
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bull t
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--~-I middot 1
bull I bull I bull middoti
middot bull bull o f t bull shy middot I
l I bull middot I
bull I I bullbull I I 1 I
I I bull
I j bullbull bull bull 1
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middot 1 1 I ~
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J
bull August observltions only Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a two-month moving average of the
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
i I I --middot--I middot -~--tmiddot-~---1- I 1 1- Ibull I
-- ----_-bull_ bull 1- shy ----------1
i4 1 A II ~ ~ --V j V
-shy1----shy--1shy----- --I-~------I --o-----I-~ (~ I ~ gpound I I 1 - ~ I I
------__----shy
~~ --~ I 1
bull I
I
I
I -
~ ~- - ~T ~- -II------ ---shy ---~~- shy_ r---~r--middot middot middot- middot middot-middot-middot--- J bullbullbull bull shy bull-
bull bull - bull ~ T WFaL e) - -j ------------ j ----- _-___ ~ __----1
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I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
bullbull Percentages for September and each month thereaFter are based on a twq-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg I September shows moving average of August and September October wHl show Septemberand October etc)
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
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1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
Ai -
~
I bull ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME Most Important State Problem
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
KEY 35
Pocketbook 30
Environment 25
EducCltion ipound~ C3mpus
o Socia1 Unrest
20
15
10
5
0
Sept-Oct Woay Augustshy Septembe~middotmiddotOctobe~ Novembe~ Decembe~
bull I 1
1
I I
I
_~l _~ 1- _~ ~_~~_ I _~~J~~~__ I I I I
I j I
I
1 I~middot-middot-middot middotmiddotI I I
1
II
bull _-- _1-
I j
1 I I
1
_ _t ~---4 I I 11
t I bull L _~ L-~ - _ bull -gt-1shy -+ --t-shy--~
I
I
I I
bull ~ bull ) t I bull bull bull i I
bull I
i
1 bull I l i
I 1
bull 1
--+---
I
middotmiddot -T-~I middot
I I
I I
I I t I bull
L I~_r~ ~ I bull I bull r bull 1 bullbullbull ~ T bull bullbull I bullbull I bullbullbullbull
bull bull bull bullbullbull l bull r
Imiddot ~ __~ ___1 ~_l
~_middot middot l~~
~ ) ~
~
II bull I i
I
tmiddotmiddot ~ ~ -1 I i
1
I
1 -----_shy
~ I
I I
I
bull 1
J I
bull I
bull I
bull I I
bull f bull i I
I I I ~ ~ i
j _ middot~L~~~~_~~----~~
1 bull bull t bull
I
bullbull I bull I
----J-~ ~~~~ - i middot middotmiddot -~
bull I
bull t
I bull
I f ~ bull bull
--~-I middot 1
bull I bull I bull middoti
middot bull bull o f t bull shy middot I
l I bull middot I
bull I I bullbull I I 1 I
I I bull
I j bullbull bull bull 1
I bull bull bull ~ Ii
middot 1 1 I ~
imiddot
J
bull August observltions only Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a two-month moving average of the
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average of August and September
October will show September and October etc)
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
i I I --middot--I middot -~--tmiddot-~---1- I 1 1- Ibull I
-- ----_-bull_ bull 1- shy ----------1
i4 1 A II ~ ~ --V j V
-shy1----shy--1shy----- --I-~------I --o-----I-~ (~ I ~ gpound I I 1 - ~ I I
------__----shy
~~ --~ I 1
bull I
I
I
I -
~ ~- - ~T ~- -II------ ---shy ---~~- shy_ r---~r--middot middot middot- middot middot-middot-middot--- J bullbullbull bull shy bull-
bull bull - bull ~ T WFaL e) - -j ------------ j ----- _-___ ~ __----1
I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
bullbull Percentages for September and each month thereaFter are based on a twq-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg I September shows moving average of August and September October wHl show Septemberand October etc)
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
------- -------------~--- --------~------ --- - --bullbull 1) ( o
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
SeptembershyOctober 1970
August September October November December 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971
January 1972
February 1972
fvarch 1972
--i ---- ~ imiddot -~--~r~- - middot I---middot ~-middot--imiddot ----_--_ I I I I I
April 1972
1
N3
1972
i I I --middot--I middot -~--tmiddot-~---1- I 1 1- Ibull I
-- ----_-bull_ bull 1- shy ----------1
i4 1 A II ~ ~ --V j V
-shy1----shy--1shy----- --I-~------I --o-----I-~ (~ I ~ gpound I I 1 - ~ I I
------__----shy
~~ --~ I 1
bull I
I
I
I -
~ ~- - ~T ~- -II------ ---shy ---~~- shy_ r---~r--middot middot middot- middot middot-middot-middot--- J bullbullbull bull shy bull-
bull bull - bull ~ T WFaL e) - -j ------------ j ----- _-___ ~ __----1
I I I I I I I
I The ~OCllte tbook
I bull
bull bulllt Tr Evii~onmcentnt y~lWH -ivl W middotld Peace 1 U Social Unrest
III August observations only
I
middot ____J______L_c____ -0___ __ _______ ___
1 t
i I
I
bullbull Percentages for September and each month thereaFter are based on a twq-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg I September shows moving average of August and September October wHl show Septemberand October etc)
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
TO H bull R bull
10-12-71
HALDEMAN
FROM GORDON STRACHAN
Although you dont usually want to see state polls this LA and Orange County telephone study by DMI is interesting in that Kennedy but not Muskie would win California in a three way race
The most important state and national problem is the pocketshybook while the second most important state problem is the environment bull
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
LISTENING POST EXHIBIT A
RepublicanNational
Committee
Thomas C Reed Member for California Executive Committee Republican National Committee P O Box 371 San Rafael California 94902 (415) 456-7310
Listening Post consists of I 000 telephone interviews monthly in Los Angeles and Orange Counties Respondents are those over 18 whether registered to vote or not
Voting patterns during the 1960s indicate that if one knows the vote results in L05 Angeles and Orange Counties I he also knows the upper and lower bounds of all statewide results In particushylar Nixon or Reagan when running for President or Governor never did bette~ statewide than their percentage of the total vote in Los Angeles ~nd Orange combined and never did worse than their percentage in Los Angeles alone
I The 1964 Goldwater presidential election involved a north-south split but even so the rule was approxima tely correct The chart below illustrates this result
5 bull
H t t
~ t+- ts Ogt+- t +- Os~sos +-S 0 os H oH(I) 90 HQ)100gt sd ss d tis sd tis
s SS SS
0 00gt d 010gt 0 010gt X01 xgt -101 tIgt 10gt Q) 0 00gt 0gt0 1S~ (1)0 zmiddottt z() ()tt cx() ztt Q()
60 of
all votes cast
for office
50
I I
40 0 N lt0 0 lt0 lt0 lt0 lt0 r-- en en 01 en en
Since President Nixon and Governor Reagan will be the principal political figures in California in 1972 it seems reasonable to sa ve costs by tracking only in Los Angeles and Orange Counties and extrapolating statewide implications
The polling organization for Listening Post is DMI The project contract conshytinues monthly through May 1972 with a final pre-primary report on 1 June I five days before the primary
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
LtSTENING POST EXHIBIT B Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
1000 telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties 10 Augustshy30 August 1971(5 days before and 15 days after the 15 August presidential economic statement)
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today I and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote U
May 1971 This Survey Statewide
Nixon McCloskey Undecided
751 75
174
744 77
179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President Statewide
1 Field Poll This Survey Published 9871
E Kennedy 323 370 E Muskie 175 190 H Humphrey 131 130
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Kennedy-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were I)eld today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republican Ted Kennedy Democrat George Vallace American Independent how would you vote
Nixon Kennedy Wallace No Answer
Total 394 440 85 80
Republicans 751 120 75 54 Democrats 198 614 88 100
Age 18-24 252 654 49 55 Age 25-34 341 506 86 67
Spanish surname 223 617 85 74
1
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 21 September 1971
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No answer
Total 304 435 176 85
Republicans 588 166 191 55 Democrats 143 608 179 70
4 MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS
National
Economic (inflation unemployment etc) Vietnam war and peace Environment
35 20 12
State of California
Economic (Unemployment 20 Too much Welfare 19 Taxes Inflation
10 -2)
55(1)
Environment 14
2
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 721 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40 All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-Wallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
Nixon Muskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Now if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would you vote for him
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graphic Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation tl
is attached
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
I
_____ _
bullbull
i I I
i ) i - shy --- shy ~ - bull bull_ _ bull ~- bullbull bull shy bull ___bull bull ______bull _________ 4_
i --bull + shy
I I
-r-------J
- - r-~ bull -J ~~ ~~J ~--J W ~ U ~-uJ -1 L ~ ~ Gmiddot~~ L d ~_ bull ~
i 1 ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important Stag Problem
c middotmiddot I I 1
j l --40middoti j
-30middot I
j
I J t 201
i 1 J 1
1- 10
I I I I
1- 0 II J
Scptcmb0r shy r j November Decembei January February tvIarch Octoberi970 1971 1971 1972 1972 ~g72
bull iI I
i i
I J I I I 1 bull I ----- - _ __-- --- --------t-r-- --T-~-r-----------t-~--------------
shy
i I
- bull ___bull ------- - ---- _---__--__-_ --_ _ - - bull --- bull bull
_bull--_ -_--__- - - - ----- ~- --- ---------- - _- -- - shy-
The pocketbook The ~nvironment i EducationCampus
~- - I ~ shy - j - _ bull bull _ __ - - ---~bull - shy _ bull -------- shy 1 ___ __ _ __ --_bull_- shy - bull - shy -_bull
Socia 1 Unrest
August observations only
Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a DNo-month moving average of the current month plus the one prior to it (eg 1 September shows moving average of August and September October will show September and October 1 etc)
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
bull bull bull bullbullbull 4 _ _=$== _ W044 e=== i I bull shy
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important National Problem
LScp~c~bc--- Augvst Scp~cr-Jbcr October Novc~bcr December ubnU2ry FebrLOry fVlrch Ap-il
middot i Oc~c~r 1970 1971 1971 f 197 971 1971 bull 1972 1972 1972 1972 ~
---__ ---_ ___(_- ---___----_-__----_---_ _-___i ir- - ~ l ~ ~
I middot bull I
~ r-Lo L - ___ ~ ____middot___ L __ t ----------------------_--- _ _---1 I I
~ i ~ I l t I
~
-30 ~ - - middot - _ _ -----__--_---------
rr _
_ - I -F =- -ii ~ bull 1
~~ bull _ 20 - - -- -(~ bull- Imiddotmiddotmiddotmiddot---middot--middot~ middot---~-I 1 ___ ___1_ bull -_ bullbull _ shy I - I
Ii I I middot il
middot i I bull ---- _- ~ t - 0 ~ ~ _bull - _ _ ~ - -- i - --- ------------ ~-~------ ------7middot--middot-middotmiddot--middot-middot ~
~ I
Ii II I I i
_ o i l ~~~- j j
I bull i
Pocketbook i I Tn~ C~wironm8nt I I
p I I IVor 2no 1gt110- ea-ce- ----bull - -------1-- --------- --- - - - -- -- ~
oClaL LJnYe st
gtlt Atg)s~ observations only )~ gt- ercentages FoY September and each mO1th middotthereafter are based on a tvvo-mo1th moving average of the
cUYrent month pus the one prior to it (e9 September shows moving a~erage ofAugust and September iOctoberl will snow September and October etc)
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON -
Datel October 13 197~ TOI BOB HALDEMAN
FROM IIlUUtY DENT ~
please handle_______
For your information V ~ tc
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
epubUcan ational ornmittee
8 October 1971
nas C Reed ber for California ~utive Committee ubfican National Committee Box 371 Rafael California 94902 ) 456-7310
Mr Harry S Dent The White House Washington [ D C bull
bull Dear Harry
Enclosed are the results of our September Listening Post ll
survey I thought you mi9ht find them of inte~est
Very best regards I
C---~----
) o-w-Thoma s C Reed
Enclosure TCRh
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
LISTENING POST Preliminary Survey Results 8 October 1971
1000 Telephone interviews in Los Angeles and Orange Counties September 1971
1 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Republicans only)
If the Republican Presidential Primary were held today and the nominees were Pete McCloskey and Richard Nixon for whom would you vote
This Survey May 1971 September August Statewide
Nixon 804 751 744 McCloskey 72 75 77 Undecided 123 174 179
2 DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (Democrats only)
Which Democrat would you personally like to see nominated for President
This Survey September August
E Muskie 340 180 E Kennedy 290 320 G McGovern 100 80 H Humphrey 80 130 J Lindsay 50 80 B Bayh 20 20 H Jackson 20 40
All Others 100 170
3 GENERAL ELECTION
A Nixon-Muskie-~vallace Now suppose the election for President were held today and the candidates were Richard Nixon Republi shycan Edmund Muskie Democrat George Wallace American Indepenshydent how would you vote
- Nixon ~1uskie Wallace No Answer
Total 396 365 78 161 LA County only 380 390 66 165
Republicans 792 78 44 86 Democrats 194 630 84 92 Independents 274 403 210 11 3
B To measure a base level of support Nm if the election for President were held today and Richard Nixon were running for reelection would yo~ vote for himu
Yes No Depends No Answer
September 289 405 229 77 August 304 435 176 85
Graph~c Presentation on Most Important Problem Facing State or Nation is attached
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIMe
IIMost Important State Problem
OctoOcr fovcmbcr Dece mber January ebrury NJrcr 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972
i i I~ i i I j I 1I
l I 1
SC-ltcrnxrshy
Oc~ox 1970
---- 1 -
j l middot- - - ___tmiddotJI___ middottbull_
I
I
I -_-----~-
I
I
- -
----
-
i
l-~O - shy
I I ) i
1
i middot ~
~-o ~-- bull -- _-_ ~ f bull
-30 middot I
j
--_----_ tmiddot-----middot---------------------- 1
ji I 1
1 20 _ t bull bullbull bull - -- middot----middot --___ --I ---- --bull ~- --- bull ------ -- _-_
~
middot~o i _____ __ ________ _______ _ _____________ ______
13 iii
i i I I
I i v-l----L---+--T------shy 0 I i
I I I IThe Pocketoook 1
Th8 Environment -- 1 -- ~i- --~- -1---middot__---------- ~____-- -----------_--- -EducationCampus
S)clCl 1 Unrest
August o bservations only gt1lt gt1lt Percentages for September and each month thereafter are based on a tvvo--month moving average of the
current month plus tile one prior to it (eg September shows moving aver-age of August and September II (1 1--middot 11 11 =hnII CIOn-rgt rY1hA 1 A nrl (J~t()hp1 pt~ _ 1 _
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
bullbull
ISSUE CLUSTERS OVER TIME
Most Important tJattonal Problem
l S ( iJ ~(rnocrshy Auguzt ~ September Ccteber November December JJnUltlry February Warch Apr
OC~O~2 970 1971 1971 1971 1971 1971 1972 1972 1972 197 l I - - - I -_-_ ------1- --- - -----I --------- - II I I j I I l I 1 I I 1 I I i-~ I I 1 I I I
-4( - -- --------~----j I ~------------- shy11 I bull i I bull i
i i ~ 1
I
I i I I I 1 i i I I
-30 -- -- _ _ - ~ _ bullbull ______-1 ~------- _---__--_----------- __ a _-_ ____
i I j 1 j
I i I
l I I middot20 L - -- bull _ bull - i ----~middot--~middot I --_bull_- ____ 1_ - - -- bull --
d I I I I I ) r i 1~ f I = I I I I I
0 l -- i middotmiddot- - -- ~- i middot--- j-- -middot---T---- i~--- ------~ _- ---- _ - l shy
I I I I t II 1 I 1
I I I __ Oi bull I
lt I i j
~ocketbook 1 Tns 2virolment I i 1
I I r r no W)rld middotPea-ce- - - _______--1 bull_ i _____ ----- - bullbull - - - bull ---- shy
gtlt A ug Lst observations only I I bull)lt Perce ntages For September and each month thereafter are based on a two-rnonth movmg average of tne
current month plus the one prior to it (eg September shows moving average o(August and September tIOctober will show September and October etc)~
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9 apdf
-
- Contested Files
-
- HR Haldeman - California part 2 of 4 - 9
-
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