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Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 1
Rice Markets of the America’s: An Analyst View
Patricio Patricio MéndezMéndez del Villardel VillarCentre de Coopération Internationale en Centre de Coopération Internationale en
Recherche Agronomique pour le Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)Développement (Cirad)
Rice Congress of the Americas 2007Cancun – Mexico16-17 May 2007
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 2
Plan of the presentation1. Main features of world rice trade2. Feature and Trends of the Americas
rice economy3. Constraints and opportunity for rice
production expansion4. Few considerations on prevailing
issues for long term prospects
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 3
Rice worldwide demand and supply
A relatively small market (less of 30 millions tons) ; wheat (115Mt) ; corn (90Mt)
Smaller share of global rice production is traded (about 7%) ; wheat (19%) ; corn (13%)
Global rice consumption & export is highly concentrated in Asia (88% of consumption & 77% of exports)
Annual growth 3,4% (1961-2005)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 4
Trends in rice trade and stock volume
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
export/ total consumption in % End of year stock / consumption Export (Mt)
source: based on USDA -data
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 5
Rice world supply and demand distribution
Production
Consumption Sources: based on FAO & USDA -data Average 2005-2007
P 9,5MT
P 2,5MT
P 23,0MT
P 6,5MT
P 15,0MT
P 1,0MT
P 375MTP 200MT
P 3,5MTP 4,5MT
C 6,5MT
C 5,5MT
C 22,0MT
C 25,5MT
C 5,5MT
C 6,5MTC 11,0MT
C 192MT C 365MT
C 1,0MT
+3,0MT
+10MT
+8MT
+1MT
-3MT
-10,5MT
+1MT
-3MT-6,5MT
57%
30%
1%
2.5%
4%
3.5%
1%
1%
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 6
Rice production represent 5% of worldwide productionRice imports: nearly 15% worldwide trade
Central America & Caribbean: main importers, more of 50% of total demand for the area ; all countries are rice importers ; recent years, rice imports have exceed 2 MT annually (3MT paddy rice)South America: 25 – 30% total demand for the areaNorth America: 20 – 25% total demand for the area
Rice exports: nearly 20% worldwide trade
Rice Outlook in the Americas
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 7
Rice Export in the Americas
Rice exports: nearly 20% worldwide trade
North America: 12% worldwide exports ; share of the world market for rice has generally dropped since the mid-1970s (emergence of India and Vietnam as worldwide exporters)South America: 5% worldwide exports ; share of the world market for ricebetween 5 - 8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
North America
South America
Share of the World Market of Rice
US Share : more 29% in 1975 ; less 10% in 2001
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 8
Rice Producers in the Americas
Rice is cultivated in almost every countries, except Canada.Brazil, USA, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador & Uruguay are the larger producersArgentina, Venezuela, Cuba, Dominican Rep. & Guyana are other important rice producing countries Small producing countries are in Central America, Haiti, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay & Suriname
9,5 Mt
12,5 Mt
2,4 Mt1,4 Mt
2,1 Mt
1,1 Mt
0,9 Mt
0,8 Mt
0,5 Mt0,6 Mt
0,45 Mt
0,27 Mt
0,4 Mt
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 9
Rice Consumers in the AmericasHigh rice consumers (kg/cap): + 35 kg.
Cuba (72 kg); Costa Rica (53 kg); Panama (60 kg); Dominican Rep (50 kg) Ecuador (47 kg); Haiti (47 kg); Peru (45 kg) ; Brazil (43 kg)
Middle high: 20 to 33 kg. Colombia (33 kg) ; Nicaragua (30 kg) ; Guyana (23 kg); Suriname (25 kg) ; Uruguay (22 kg)
Middle low : ~ 20 kgVenezuela (19 kg) ; Bolivia (20 kg) ; Honduras (18 kg)
Low consumers : - 12 kg.Chile (12 kg.), Canada (10 kg); El Salvador (10 kg); Argentina (10 kg); USA (9 kg) ; Mexico (6 kg); Guatemala (5 kg)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 10
Consumption by regions in the Americas
In Central America, rice consumption is low (18 kg/caput) compared to the Caribbean (48 kg/caput ) and South American countries (39 kg/caput), North America (9 kg/caput); and 27 kg/caput for average Americas
18 kg/caput 48 kg/caput
9 kg/caput
39 kg/caputRice
Consumption kg/ caput
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 11
Rice Consumption Trends in the Americas
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 0515
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Consumption
Consumption caput
Million tons Kg caput
15 kg/caput
27 kg/caput
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 12
Rice Trade in the Americas: Large discrepancies between countries
Larger Rice Deficit(more than 100.000 t)Cuba, Brazil, Canada Mexico, Haiti, Costa Rica,Nicaragua, Dominican Rep. Colombia, ChileMinor Rice DeficitPeru, Panama, Guatemala Venezuela,Self-suppliersBolivia, Paraguay, Ecuador SurinameLarger Rice ExportersUSA, Uruguay, Argentina, Guyana
Americas
Countries
Areas
(000 t.)
Production
Rice Paddy
(000 t.)
Yields
T/ha
Net Imports/Export (000 t.)
Consumption
kg/caputAmericas 7 380 33 880 4,59 640 27
North America 1 260 9 630 7,65 2 590 9United States 1 260 9 630 2 920 9
Canada - - - -330 10Central America 310 1100 3,3 -1 050 18
Costa Rica 330 203 3,8 -110 53Panama 75 240 3,2 -30 60
Nicaragua 103 270 2,6 -125 30Mexico 56 280 5,0 -600 6
Honduras 4 12 2,9 -100 18El Salvador 4 20 5,0 -70 10Guatemala 17 36 2,5 -60 5
Caribbean 310 1150 3,7 -1 200 48Cuba 185 620 3,3 -700 72
Dominican Rep 85 415 4,9 -100 50Haiti 40 110 2,6 -325 47
Jamaica - - - -130 49Trinidad and T. - - - -57 44South America 5 500 22 000 4,00 300 39
Brazil 3 600 12 500 3,48 -450 43Peru 340 2 250 6,81 -80 45
Colombia 470 2 200 4,77 -100 33Ecuador 380 1 200 3,20 50 47Uruguay 180 1 200 6,50 750 22
Argentina 165 1 125 6,84 350 10Guyana 125 487 3,87 200 23
Suriname 50 187 3,80 20 25Venezuela 135 600 4,72 -22 19
Bolivia 145 400 2,70 -20 20Paraguay 30 114 3,95 -7 8
Chile 26 120 4,70 -100 12
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 13
Rice Trends in LAC
While significant improvement in rice production in LAC, regional demand still exceed productionNet deficit 2001-2006 nearly 1,7 Mt of milled rice a year (2,5 Mt paddy), representing US$500 millions a year
-5 000
-4 000
-3 000
-2 000
-1 000
0
1 000
2 000
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
Latin America & Caribbean Rice Deficit Trends
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 14
Rate of self-sufficiency
sources: based on FAO & USDA -data Production/Consumptionx100
Average 2000-2005
1 10 100 1 000
HaitiMexico
CubaChile
Costa RicaNicaragua
Dominican RepPanama
BrazilPeru
VenezuelaColombia
EcuadorSuriname
United StatesArgentina
GuyanaUruguay
CaribbeanCentral America
North AmericaSouth America
Americas
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 15
Rice trade in Americas
Regional supply trendsUSA (nearly 3Mt)Mercosur (Uruguay & Argentina, more 1Mt) Other origins ? (Guyana, Ecuador, Suriname, 0,3Mt)
Regional demand trendsCentral America (Mexico, Costa Rica, Nicaragua…, more 1Mt) Caribbean (Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Rep…, more 1Mt)Andin’s countries (Peru, Colombia, Chile…, more 0,3Mt)Brazil (between 0,5Mt and 0,7Mt)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 16
Almost rice imports are supplied by regional exporters:
USA is a major exporter to Mexico and CanadaArgentina and Uruguay are major exporters to BrazilGuyana is a major exporter to Jamaica and Trinidad & TobagoEcuador exports Colombia & Peru
Rice Americas market is a regional market
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 17
Variable export and import trade flows
Importer type of rice OriginPaddy USA +++++
USA +++Uruguay + China +
Brokens USA +++++
Brokens Venezuela +++ Ecuador ++
Paddy USA +++++
MilledUSA +++++ Spain +++ Vietnam ++
BrokensVietnam +++ USA +++ Thailand ++
PaddyParaguay ++++ Uruguay +++ Argentina +++
Cuba
Milled Uruguay ++++ Argentina ++++Uruguay ++++ Argentina +++
Brokens
Brazil
USA +++ Venezuela ++USA +++ Ecuador +++ Venezuela ++
Milled
Mexico Milled
Paddy
Colombia
source: based on FAOSTAT
Importer type of rice OriginPaddy USA +++++
MilledThailand ++++ Argentina +++ USA ++
Paddy Italy +++++
Paddy USA +++++Milled USA +++++
Brokens USA +++++Husked USA ++Milled USA ++++++++Milled USA +++++
Brokens Central Am+++Paddy USA ++++++++Milled USA ++Paddy USA ++++
Brokens Central Am+++Paddy USA +++++++
Guatemala
Haiti
USA + Italy + Argentina +
Milled
Honduras
Milled Italie +++ USA ++
El Salvador
Chile
BrokensArgentina +++ Brazil ++ Thailand ++
Uruguay +++ USA +++ Brazil ++ Bolivia ++
MilledPeru
Brokens Ecuador ++++ Bolivia ++
Nicaragua
Dominican Rep
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 18
Rice Production in the Americas by Main Regions
La Plata River Basin8,3 Mtons (26%)
West Center & North
3,5 Mtons (11%)
Colombian & Venezuelian Llanos3,5 Mtons (11%)
Ecuador1,4 Mtons
Peru2,1 Mtons
Southtern States7,5 Mtons (24%)
California2 Mtons (6%)
Chile0,1 Mtons
Argentina1,1 Mtons Uruguay
1,2 Mtons
South Brazil6 Mtons
Caribbean1,2 Mtons (4%)
USA 9,5Mtons (30%) (11%)
Bolivia0,4 Mtons
(1%)
Guyana & Suriname0,6Mtons (2%)
Central America1,0 Mtons (3%)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 19
Rice Outlook in Central America & Caribbean countries
Although all Central and Caribbean countries are net importers of rice, domestic production has increased because of yields improvement only. Dominican Republic is the largest producer in the area and yields are also respectable (4,9t/ha) ; However, average yield remains low at 3,5t/ha in Caribbean countries and 2,8t/ha in Central America, while average yield in South America are 4,0t/ha (and 5,0t/ha without Brazil) and 7,5t/ha in USA.
Rice yields t/ha
3,5 t/ha
4,0 t/ha
7,5 t/ha
2,8 t/ha
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 20
Central America & Caribbean countries: Major Importers
Cuba is the major importer, 0,7Mt of milled rice per year. Rice area is respectable (185.000 ha), but average yield remains low at 3,3 t/ha.Haiti is the third largest importer (0,3Mt). This country is a major recipient of USA rice exports to the region, mainly though food assistance programs.
Mexico is also a major importer (approaching 0,6Mt of milled rice per year). During the last decade rice area decline significantly.
Rice Imports
0,7Mt0,6Mt 0,3Mt
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 21
Mexico Rice Trends
Mexico Rice Areas & US Rice Imports
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005
years
Mill
ions
tons
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
000
t.
source: FAO & USDA, 2006
US Rice Imports
Rice Areas
In 20 years rice area lost 70% while rice consumption rose by 80% and US rice Imports rose by 60% during this time. Yields are respectable (5,0 t/ha +66% from mid-1980)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 22
Rice Outlook in South American
South American is a net exporter, of nearly 0,7 Mt of milled rice a year (1 Mt rice paddy), representing US$200 millions a year. Net exporters are Argentina, Uruguay, Guyana and SurinameParaguay and Bolivia are self-sufficientEcuador is also a net exporter. However, average yield remains low at 3,2 t/haIn several countries demand exceeds national production (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, Venezuela). In this countries rice imports exceed 800.000 ton (1,15Mt paddy rice)
Rice Trade Balance (000 t.)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 23
Rice import trends in South America
Significant importsstarted in 1990’s (Peru), 2000’s (Colombia & Chile) where production decline because low prices, high production costs and lack of credit
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Imports
Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Mexico Colombia Brazil United States
US$/ton
Source: Fao, AgroStat, 2007
000 t.
Trend in Rice Producer Price
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 24
Rice Yields in South American
In Peru average yields are higher (6,82 t/ha) but rice areas declined until 2000’s. Recent years, domestic production has been in progress, due to areas expansion and yields improvement ; but Peru remains a net importerColombia and Venezuelaare largest producers in the area and yields are also respectable (4,75 t/ha)
Rice yields t/ha
3,48 t/ha6,82 t/ha
6,75 t/ha
6,65 t/ha
2,70 t/ha
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 25
Sustainability Rice Production in the America
Rice is grown in all Americas Countries.
Rice Areas decreased
Yields trends rose since 1980’s Green Revolution, irrigated areas 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
areas
Production
Yields
Millions tons & ha T/ha
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 26
In all Latin American countries, production increased at an annual rate of 3% while the area devoted to rice decreased at an annual rate of 1%. So, yields grew during the same period at an average of 4%But, in recent years Yields are stagnating
Rice Production areas & yieldsTrends in Latin America
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
areas
ProductionYields
Million tons & ha T/ha
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 27
Rice Yield Trends
Rice Yield Trends in Worldwide
2 106
2 503
3 178
3 7113 997
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010*
19%
27%
17%
8%
Rice Yield Trends in Latin America
1 668 1 720
2 199
3 152
4 028
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010*
3%
28%
43%
28%
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 28
Rice Systems by ecologies in Latin America
Irrigated System represent 33% of total rice areasUpland Rice 58%
Main Countries Irrigated Rainfed lowland Upland Deepwater
Latin America 33 7 58 2Brazil 35 5 60 0
Colombia 67 10 23 0Cuba 100 0 0 0
Dominican Rep 93 7 0 0Ecuador 54 7 0 38Guyana 71 29 0 0
Peru 80 20 0 0Surinam 93 7 0 0Uruguay 100 0 0 0
Source : IRRI WRS, 2001
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 29
Central America yields (1970-80’s)South America Yields (1980-90’s)
Rice Trends in South & Central America
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
areas
ProductionYields
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 050,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
areas
ProductionYields
T/haMillions
South AmericaCentral America
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 30
Constraints and opportunity for rice production expansion
Yield increased thanks to combination of continues improvement in yields in the must favored irrigated ecology and in some upland areas, particularly in central Brazil (1980’s and 1990’s).Recent years
Slow growth in yieldLow producer pricesHigher costs of rice compared to Asian countries ; in most of the irrigated areas in South America costs vary between US$800 and US$950/ha (105 to 140$/ton) ; in Colombia production costs exceed 1200$/ha (235$/ton)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
areas
ProductionYields
Rice production
costUS$/ton
Vietnam 75 to 80Thailand 80 to 85
China 90 to 95India 95 to100
Uruguay 105 to 110Brazil 110 to 120
Ecuador 125 to 130Nigeria 140 to 145
United States 140 to 150Venezuela 170 to 175Colombia 230 to 235
Sources: USDA, FAO, ACA, CIRAD,
Induarroz, Sica
2003-04
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 31
The Longer term and its implications
Will South American became the main rice supplier for the Americas ?
Rice areas in irrigated system potential
Mercosur (more 1 Millions ha?)
Rice areas in Upland system potential
Colombian and Venezuelan Llanos (more 1 Mha)And…Cerrados in Brazil (3 Mha? 10
Mha? 40 Mha?)
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 32
Prospect Production and marketTrendsTrade agreement impacts ?
Bilateral free trade agreements between the US and the Latin American countries
Market segmentationInternational Exporters : Thailand (Africa, Asia) ; Vietnam (Asia), United States (Central America and Caribbean countries), Pakistan and India (Middle East)Regional International Exporters : Egypt (East Europe) ; Australia (Japan) ; Argentina et Uruguay (Brazil) ; Italy and Spain (European Union)
Influence from commodities worldwide demand ?Agro-energy Crops vs Food Crops
Patricio Méndez del Villar - Cirad 33
Patricio Patricio MéndezMéndez del Villardel VillarUnidad de investigacionUnidad de investigacion
Accion Colectiva, Politicas y MercadosAccion Colectiva, Politicas y Mercados
patricio.mendezpatricio.mendez@@cirad.frcirad.fr
Muchas Gracias! Muchas Gracias!
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