research program: drivers of spatial and temporal climate variability in extra-tropical australia
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Research Program:
Drivers of spatial and temporal climate variability in extra-tropical Australia
Dietmar Dommenget
mode
Centre of Excellence
Land Convection (Atmosphere) Ocean
Extremes Modes of Variability
Research Programs
Climate Variability Community
CIs PostDocs PhD students
Dietmar Dommenget Claudia Frauen Lam Hoang
Micheal Reeder Laura O’Brien Teresa Parker
Byju Pookandy
Nick Tyrrell
Gang Wang
Core Team
Core Team
Themes
ACCESS
Weather-Climate
ENSO
Decadal / Change
Model Errors
Seasonal Prediction
Themes
ACCESS
Weather-Climate
ENSO
Decadal / Change
Model Errors
Seasonal Prediction
ACCESS model hierarchy
Slab oceanAMIP
Slab oceanAMIP
ACCESS 1.3
ACCESS MOM-EP
UM-NXXX
ML-ocean
Ocean complexity
Atm
os. c
ompl
exity
ML-ocean Slab oceanENSO
published
running
building
UM-N96
UM-N48
EP-GCMAMIP Slab ocean ML-columns Coarse GCM
CMS-Team et al.
Themes
ACCESS
Weather-Climate
ENSO
Decadal / Change
Model Errors
Seasonal Prediction
backwards
Tess Parker et al.
Weather-Climate Connection
Examples:
Heat wave – Tropical cyclones
Weather Phenomenon
Climate Phenomenon
Weather Variables
Climate Variables
Weather Dynamics
Climate Dynamics
Heat wave Tropical Cyclone
forwardsTropical Cyclone Heat wave
Weather-Climate Connection
Examples:
Heat wave – Tropical cyclones
Fronts
Weather Phenomenon
Climate Phenomenon
Weather Variables
Climate Variables
Weather Dynamics
Climate Dynamics
Climatology of Fronts
Gareth Berry et al.
Weather-Climate Connection
Examples:
Heat wave – Tropical cyclones
Fronts
Walker/Hadley Cell
Weather Phenomenon
Climate Phenomenon
Weather Variables
Climate Variables
Weather Dynamics
Climate Dynamics
Hadley Circulation (meridional)
Juliane Schwendike et al.
Walker Circulation (zonal)
Stream function / Divergence
Themes
ACCESS
Weather-Climate
ENSO
Decadal / Change
Model Errors
Seasonal Prediction
ENSO
El Nino DiversityCP: central Pacific EP: east Pacific
ENSO
El Nino Diversity
Non-linear dynamics
Atmos. Dynamics
Wind response
-50% (La Nina)
50% (El Nino)
200% (El Nino) El Nino Diversity
Non-linear dynamics
Atmos. Dynamics
Non-linear teleconnections
ENSO
CP: central Pacific EP: east Pacific
SLP response per NINO3.4 SST
-200% (La Nina)
Claudia Frauen et al.
ENSO
El Nino Diversity
Non-linear dynamics
Atmos. Dynamics
Non-linear teleconnections
Tropical inter-basin interactions
- -
ENSO
El Nino Diversity
Non-linear dynamics
Atmos. Dynamics
Non-linear teleconnections
Tropical inter-basin interactions
ENSO <-> climate change
Themes
ACCESS
Weather-Climate
ENSO
Decadal / Change
Model Errors
Seasonal Prediction
Decadal Variability / Climate Change
What are the structures of Decadal variability?
How does the tropics and extra-tropics interact?
What is the role of the southern Ocean?
CMIP5 Percentage of decadal variability
Gang Wang et al.
Decadal Variability / Climate ChangeLa Nina causes Global Warming Hiatus ?
[Kosaka and Xie, Nature 2013]
CMIP5 Pacific trends 1980-2010
Jing-Jia Luo et al.
What are the structures of Decadal variability?
How does the tropics and extra-tropics interact?
What is the role of the southern Ocean?
How does climate change interact with decadal variability?
Decadal Variability / Climate ChangeLa Nina causes Global Warming Hiatus ?
[Kosaka and Xie, Nature 2013]
- -
Jing-Jia Luo et al.
What are the structures of Decadal variability?
How does the tropics and extra-tropics interact?
What is the role of the southern Ocean?
How does climate change interact with decadal variability?
What are the circulation changes under global warming and how can we understand them?
Themes
ACCESS
Weather-Climate
ENSO
Decadal / Change
Model Errors
Seasonal Prediction
Model Errors
Bottom Up approach
Process Process Process
CGCM
Climate
Top Down approach
CGCM
Process Process Process
Climate
Model Errors
Bottom Up approach
Traditional approach
Process Process Process
CGCM
Climate Error
Top Down approach
CGCM
Climate
Can we improve the GCMs without improving any
process?
Model uncertainties in climate sensitivity
Regional response difference [%]
Glob
al m
ean
resp
onse
diff
eren
ce [%
]
Model Errors
A simple (GREB) climate model study
Model Errors
Model uncertainties in climate sensitivity
Dommenget et al.
ACCESS
Weather-Climate
ENSO
Decadal / Change
Model Errors
Seasonal Prediction
Research Program:Modes of Variability
Football Team
DiscussionHow to improve CGCMs?
Current view (literature):
Improve model parts (Clouds, Convection, Ocean, Ice)
(physical parameterizations, resolution)
Hypothesis (this study):
Improve mean state climate(improve coupling)
(flux corrections, anomaly coupling)
CGCMs
Improve individual player skills(no coaching)
Improve team play(coaching)
Model Errors
1. Julie tropics vs. s-hemis2. Weather statistics?3. My climate change4. Process vs. coupled system
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