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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
Overview of Renewable Energy SourcesAli ShakouriBaskin School of EngineeringUniversity of California Santa Cruzhttp://quantum.soe.ucsc.edu/
Santa Cruz
LoCal-RE Summer Program, Santa Cruz, CA; 28 July 2009
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
34%
8%
28%
6%
Share of WorldTotal
24%38%
26%
23%
7%
6%
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 1980-2030
13TW
2050: 25-30TW1 Quad= 1015 Btu = 1.055 x 1018J
US Department of Energy; Energy Information Administration (2007)
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
C. J. Campbell: “The Essence of Oil & Gas Depletion,” Multi-Sci. Publ. Co., Ltd., Essex, UK, 2003
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.
400,000 years of greenhouse-gas & temperature history based on bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice
Last time CO2 >300 ppm was 25 million years ago.
John P. Holdren, 2006
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Cost of Renewable EnergyLevelized cents/kWh in constant $2000
PV
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
100
80
60
40
20
0
CO
E c
ents
/kW
hWind
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h
40
30
20
10
0
10
8
6
4
2
0
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h Geothermal
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Biomass
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
15
12
9
6
3
0
CO
E c
ents
/kW
hSolar thermal
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
706050403020100
CO
E c
ents
/kW
h
Source: NREL Energy Analysis OfficeThese graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: October 2002
Keith Wipke, NREL
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Microprocessor Evolution
1,000,0001,000,000
100,000100,000
10,00010,000
1,0001,000
1010
100100
11
1 Billion 1 Billion TransistorsTransistors
808680868028680286
i386i386i486i486
PentiumPentium®®
KK
PentiumPentium®® IIII
’’7575 ’’8080 ’’8585 ’’9090 ’’9595 ’’0000 ’’0505 ’’1010
PentiumPentium®® IIIIIIPentiumPentium®® 44
’’1515
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Airplane Speed/Efficiency Evolution
McMasters & Cummings, Journal of Aircraft, Jan-Feb 2002
US Energy Intensity (MJ) per available seat km@ 160kg payload/seat
Airplane Speed
NLR-CR-2005-669;Peeters P.M., MiddelJ., Hoolhorst A.
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
Felix’s forecasts of US energy consumption in year 2000 (early 1970’s)
Vaclav Smil,Energy at the Crossroads,2005
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Electric Potential of Wind
• Significant potential in US Great Plains, inner Mongolia and northwest China
• U.S.:Use 6% of land suitable for wind energy development; practical electrical generation potential of ≈0.5 TW
• Globally: Theoretical: 27% of earth’s land is class >3 => 50 TW Practical: 2 TW potential (4% utilization)
Off-shore potential is larger but must be close to grid to be interesting; (no installation > 20 km offshore now)
Nate Lewis, Caltech
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Turbine Sizes
Trend toward bigger turbine sizesHelge Aagaard Madsen, DTU Riso
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Offshore Wind Farm
Nysted, DenmarkA. Shakouri 11/25/2008
EE 181 Renewable Energies in PracticeCA-Denmark Summer Program
2008
• 72x 2.3MW (delivery ~3% loss)• 2M euros/turbine (2002) • 250 tonnes/turbine (55 tonnes the
rotor and blades)• 97% availability• Average load: 30% of full capacity
• Service: 1 week/year/turbine• Change oil after 5 years (900 liters/turbine)• Lightening probability/ turbine (once in 7
years); 5 blades repaired
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Geothermal Energy Potential
• Mean terrestrial geothermal flux at earth’s surface 0.057 W/m2
• Total continental geothermal energy potential 11.6 TW• Oceanic geothermal energy potential 30 TW
• Wells “run out of steam” in 5 years• Power from a good geothermal well (pair) 5 MW• Power from typical Saudi oil well 500 MW• Needs drilling technology breakthrough
(from exponential $/m to linear $/m) to become economical)
Nate Lewis, Caltech
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Energy from the Oceans?
Thermal Differences
Tides
Currents
Ken Pedrotti, UCSC
Waves
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Biomass Energy Potential
Global: Top Down
• Requires Large Areas Because Inefficient (0.3%)• 3 TW requires ≈ 600 million hectares = 6x1012 m2
• 20 TW requires ≈ 4x1013 m2
• Total land area of earth: 1.3x1014 m2
• Hence requires 4/13 = 31% of total land area
Nate Lewis, Caltech
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
Amount of land needed for 20 TW at 1% efficiency:
9% of land
Chris Somerville, UC Berkeley
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Solar Energy Potential
• Theoretical: 1.2x105 TW solar energy potential• Practical: ≈ 600 TW solar energy potential• Onshore electricity generation potential of ≈60 TW (10% conversion efficiency):
• Photosynthesis: 90 TW
• Generating 12 TW (1998 Global Primary Power) requires0.1% of Globe = 5x1011 m2 (i.e., 5.5% of U.S.A.)
Nate Lewis, Caltech
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Best Research-Cell Efficiencies
Effic
iency
(%)
Universityof Maine
Boeing
Boeing
Boeing
BoeingARCO
NREL
Boeing
Euro-CIS
200019951990198519801975
NREL/Spectrolab
NRELNREL
JapanEnergy
Spire
No. CarolinaState University
Multijunction ConcentratorsCrystalline Si CellsThin Film (Cu(In,Ga)Se2, CdTe ,
Amorphous Si:H)Organic Cells
Varian
RCA
Solarex
UNSW
UNSW
ARCO
UNSWUNSW
UNSWSpire Stanford
Westing-house
UNSWGeorgia TechGeorgia Tech Sharp
AstroPower
NREL
AstroPower
Spectrolab
NREL
MasushitaMonosolar Kodak
Kodak
AMETEK
PhotonEnergy
UniversitySo. Florida
NREL
NREL
Princeton UniversityKonstanz NREL
NRELCu(In,Ga)Se2
14x concentration
NREL
UnitedSolar
United Solar
RCA
RCARCA
RCARCA
RCA
026587136
Spectrolab
University CaliforniaBerkeley
Solarex12
8
4
0
16
20
24
28
32
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L.L. Kazmerski, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, National Center for Photovoltaics
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Cost/Efficiency
1st generation high-cost medium efficiency2nd generation low-cost
low efficiency
3rd generation low-cost high efficiency
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
BASIC RESEARCH NEEDS FOR SOLAR ENERGY UTILIZATION
Chair: Nathan S. Lewis, Caltech, George Crabtree, Argonne
PRIORITY RESEARCH DIRECTIONS• 50% Efficient Solar Cells • Plastic Photovoltaics• Nanostructures: Low Cost and High Efficiencies • Fuels from Water and Sunlight: Efficient Photoelectrolysis• Leveraging Photosynthesis for Production of Biofuel• Bio-inspired Smart Matrix for Solar Fuels Production• Solar-powered Catalysts for Energy-rich Fuels Formation • Bio-inspired Molecular Assemblies for Integrating Photon-to-fuels Pathways• Achieving Defect-tolerant and Self-repairing Solar Conversion Systems• Solar Thermochemical Fuel Production• New Experimental and Theoretical Tools • Solar Energy Conversion Materials by Design • Materials Architectures for Solar Energy: Assembling Complex Structures
April 2005
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009A. Shakouri 11/25/2008
Potential of Carbon Free Energy Sources
From: Basic Research Needs for Solar Energy Utilization, DOE 2005
Chris Somerville, UC Berkeley
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Energy Storage Options
Specific Energy (Wh/kg)
Spe
cific
Pow
er (W
/kg)
Combustion Engine
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
RejectedEnergy 61%
Lawrence Livermore National Lab., http://eed.llnl.gov/flow
Power ~3.3TW
1.3TW
A. Shakouri 11/25/2008
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Direct Conversion of Heat into ElectricityDirect Conversion of Heat into Electricity
TVS
∆∆
=Seebeck coefficient
(1821)
∆V~ S ∆T
Electrical Conductor
Hot Cold
Ι
Rload = RTE internal
Efficiency function of thermoelectric figure-of-merit (Z)
)()()( 2
2
tyconductivithermaltyconductivielectricalSeebeckZ
kSZ
=
=σ
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
Power Generation Efficiencies of Different Technologies
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
400 600 800 1000 1200
ZTm=0.5ZTm=1ZTm=2ZTm=3Carnot limit
Thot
(K)
0.5
Ener
gy C
onve
rsio
n Ef
ficie
ncy
3
12
Carnot
Solar/ Rankine
Geothermal/ Organic Rankine
ZTavg=20Coal/ Rankine
Cement/ Org. Rankine
Solar/ Stirling
C. Vining 2008
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators
(Voyager, Galileo, Cassini, …)• 55 kg, 300 We, ‘only’ 7 % conversion efficiency• But > 1,000,000,000,000 device hours without a single
failure
B-doped Si0.78Ge0.22
P-doped Si0.78Ge0.22
B-doped Si0.63Ge0.36
P-doped Si0.63Ge0.36
Hot Shoe (Mo-Si)
Cold Shoe
n-type legp-type leg
SiGe unicoupleCronin Vining, ZT Services
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Microrefrigerators on a chip
Featured in Nature Science Update, Physics Today, AIP April 2001
• Monolithic integration on silicon• ∆Tmax~4C at room temp. (7C at 100C)
UCSC, UCSB, HRL Labs
Relative Temp. (C)
50µm1 µm
Hot Electron
Cold Electron
Nanoscale heat transport and microrefrigerators on a chip; A. Shakouri, Proceedings of IEEE, July 2006
J. Christofferson
Si (10nm)Si0.89Ge0.1C0.01
Ali Shakouri, Director
Thermionic Energy Conversion Center
4 nm (Zr,W)N
2 nm ScN
• Engineering current and heat flow using nanostructures
•Goal: direct conversion of heat into electricity with > 20-30% efficiency (ZT>2.5)
UCSC (Bian, Kobayashi), Berkeley (Majumdar), BSSTInc. (Bell), Delaware (Zide), MIT (Ram), Purdue (Sands),
UCSB (Bowers, Gossard)ONR, DARPA
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Plan B for EnergySeptember 2006; Scientific American; W. Wayt Gibbs
• WAVES AND TIDES (Reality factor 5)
• HIGH-ALTITUDE WIND (Reality factor 4)
• NANOTECH SOLAR CELLS (Reality factor 4)
• DESIGNER MICROBES (Reality factor 4)
• NUCLEAR FUSION (Reality factor 3)
• SPACE-BASED SOLAR (Reality factor 3)
• A GLOBAL SUPERGRID (Reality factor 2)
• SCI-FI SOLUTIONS (Reality factor 1)
– Cold Fusion and Bubble Fusion– Matter-Antimatter Reactors
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
A FRAMEWORK FOR PRO-ENVIRONMENTAL BEHAVIOURSDefra January 2008
The headline behaviour goals-Install insulation -Better energy management -Install microgeneration-Increase recycling -Waste less (food)-Moreresponsible water usage-Use more efficient vehicles -Use car less for short trips -Avoid unnecessary flights (short haul)-Buy energy efficient products-Eat more food that is locally in season -Adopt lower impact diet
Elizabeth Shove, Prof. of Sociology, Lancaster University, UK (Guest Lecture Renewable Energy Class, UC Santa Cruz, Spring 2009)
http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/classes/ee080j/Spring09/
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
Aha!
Practical consciousnessAwareness and choice
Informs a lot of discussion about how to engender sustainabilityConsiders habits in isolationOften implausible in terms of daily routines e.g. comfort, cleanliness
Elizabeth Shove, Spring 2009 http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/classes/ee080j/Spring09/
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
choice, change, belief, attitude, information, behaviour
But what if we see consumption as consequence of ordinary practice?
What is required in order to be a ‘normal’member of society?
How does this change, and with what consequence for sustainability?
Elizabeth Shove, Spring 2009 http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/classes/ee080j/Spring09/
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Comfort and indoor environments it is becoming normal to expect 22 degrees C inside, all year round, all over the world and whatever the weather outside (Standardizing Comfort => Prof. Fanger DTU)
Cleanliness and showeringit is becoming normal to shower once or twice a day (in the UK, the amount of water used for showering is expected to increase five fold between 1991-2021)
LaunderingFrom once a week to once a day or more, but with lower temperatures than ever before
Similar trends –naturalisation of need
but possibly different dynamics
and different implications for the future
Comfort, cleanliness and convenience By Elizabeth Shove, 2003
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009
Reflexive/conspicuous consumption
Routine/ordinary consumption
Where most effort has focused
Where the real challenges lie
Individual belief, attitude, behaviour, information, persuasion
Practice, convention, routine, dynamics of sociotechnical systems, structuring of options, standardisation, globalisation
Elizabeth Shove, Spring 2009 http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/classes/ee080j/Spring09/
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Can Renewables Save the World?• Fossil fuels have excellent energy characteristics. • Wind/ geothermal are among the cheapest of
renewables. There is potential for significant growth but they can not solve our energy problem.
• Solar energy has the potential to provide all our energy needs.– Currently expensive; it is intermittent.
• Currently no clear options for large scale energy storage
• Biomass has the potential to provide part of transportation energy needs – Cellulosic biofuels and algaes are interesting but they
have not demonstrated large scale/long term potential. One has to consider the full ecosystem impact (water, food, etc.).
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A. Shakouri 7/28/2009Can Renewables Save the World?• If our goal is to have a planet where everybody has
a level of life similar to developed countries, energy need is enormous and it is not clear if we can do this by working on the supply side alone.
• Energy efficiency is important but it is not enough.• We need to consider changes in lifestyle, city
planning and social structure (transportation, lodging, grid).
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