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GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN

(Ministry of Climate Change)

Pakistan’s Climate Change Vulnerability

& Remedial Policy Measures

By: Muhammad Azim

(Deputy Director)

(20 May, 2015)

SEQUENCE

• Introduction

• Climate Situation & Vulnerability

• Pakistan Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats

• Pakistan’s Climate Change Initiatives

• National Climate Change Policy-2012 (Salient Feature)

• Implementation Mechanism

2

Climate Change Situation and Vulnerability (Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report-2013)

• 0.6oC increase in average Global temperature during the last

century; (2005 warmest year followed by 2007, 1998, 2002,

2003, 2006, 2010 etc.)

• Increase by 1.8-4.0oC projected over the 21st Century.

• Large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature

and precipitation in different world regions.

3

Climate Change Situation and Vulnerability (Contd.)

• Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of

extreme climatic events (cyclonic storms, floods, droughts

etc.)

• Mean sea level has risen by 0.19m and will continue to rise

during the 21st century.

• Increase in the ocean acidification

• Global warming has also affected the global water cycle

4

Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats

• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather

events i.e. erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and drought

• Increased temperatures

• Sea level rise threatening coastal areas

• Intrusion of saline sea water into Indus Delta

• Impact on the water, food and energy security of the country

5

Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats (Contd.)

The “vanishing” Himalayan glaciers

– Cover 17 % of the mountain area storing about 12,000 bcm of freshwater

– 15000 glaciers (feed Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra) –sustain and impact

about 10% of the total human population.

– The impacts of glacial melt are extremely far reaching and destructive and

signs quite clear

• The average rate of recession between 1985 and 2001 is about 23 m

per year – Gone up by 30% since last 10 years (ICIMOD)

• Total area of Himalayan glaciers will shrink from 500, 000 to 100,000

sq. Km (4/5th of resource could be lost) very soon.

• Outbreak and spread of Dengue all over Pakistan

6

Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats (Contd.)

Period Global

(AR4, 2007) Pakistan

1901-2000 0.06 °C 0.06°C

1956-2005 0.128°C 0.16°C

1971-2005 – 0.26°C

1981-2005 0.177 °C 0.39°C

1991-2005 – 0.74°C

Global versus Pakistan – Decadal Mean Temperature Trends:

• The accelerated jumps in the mean temperature trends after 1950s over

Pakistan are much higher as compared to the global change, for example, the warming over Pakistan is twice as fast as the global mean change over the period 1981-2005

• The frequency and intensity of weather extremes in the period after 1991 is much higher than the period 1950-1990

7

Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats (Contd.)

• 22.8 % area and 50 % population is at risk due to impact of Climate Change

• Country has suffered losses because of floods owing to Climate Change

during:

2010: US$ 10.06 billion

2011: US$ 3.07 billion

2012: US$ 1.87 billion

• Environmental degradation costs 6% of GDP i.e. Rs. 365 billion per annum

• German watch has ranked Pakistan amongst the TEN most vulnerable

countries consecutively since 2010.

8

Pakistan’s Vulnerability to Climate Change Threats (Contd.)

• Climate impacts are very real and menacingly showing their presence:

– Potentially risking 50% of the population

– Glacial retreat, floods, droughts and temp rise

• Climate Change in Pakistan is a direct threat to

– Food security

– Energy security

– Economic security

• Indirectly, it has the potential to be a security threat:

– A “Terrorism multiplier” triggered by climate refugees and economic deprivation

– A source for Cross-border conflict owing to a shared water resources - coming under extreme stress

9

10

Flood/Rain Extent - 10 Sep 2010

Flood/Rain Extent - 21 Sep 2010

Flood/Rain Extent - 16 Aug 2010

Flood/Rain Extent - 31 July 2010

Flood/Rain Extent - 27 Aug 2010

KARACHI

AFGHANISTAN

INDIA

IRAN

Warsak Dam

Tanda Dam

Khanpur Dam

Tarbela Dam

Mangla Dam

Chashma Barrage Rasool Barrage

Marala Headworks

Qadirabad

Trimmu Barrage Balloki Headworks

Sidhnai Headworks Taunsa Barrage

Islam Headworks

Punjnad Headworks

Guddu Barrage

Sukkur Barrage

Kotri Barrage

ISLAMABAD

QUETTA

LAHORE

Swat

Gilgit

CHINA

Country is prone to serious large-scale

natural as well as anthropogenic disaster

such as flood, droughts, tropical cyclones,

dust storms, fog episodes, landslides etc.

Pakistan’s Climate Change Initiatives

• GCISC established in 2003.

• Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change

established in 2006

• Planning Commission’s Task Force on Climate Change

established in 2008.

• National Climate Change Policy 2012

• Framework for Implementation of NCCP.

• Climate Change and Cities Initiative.

11

12

National Climate Change Policy-2012 (Salient Features)

Suggested Policy Measures:

• Capacity Building

• Institutional Strengthening

• Awareness Raising

• International & Regional Cooperation

• Finance

• Technology Transfer

• Implementation Mechanism

• Research and development

13

Policy Goal

To ensure that Climate Change is mainstreamed

in the economically and socially vulnerable

sectors of the economy and to steer Pakistan

towards climate resilient Development.

14

Responding to Climate Change

Two key ways to respond:

i. Adaptation measures

ii. Mitigation measures

15

Adaptation to Climate Change

Major sectors

• Water Resources

• Agriculture and Livestock

• Health

• Forestry & Biodiversity

• Disaster Preparedness

• Vulnerable ecosystems

16

Water Resources

Policy Measures:

i) Water Conservation Strategies

ii) Water management

iii) Capacity building

Agriculture and Livestock

Policy Measures:

i) Technology

ii) Resource Management

iii) Genetic modification

Policy Measures:

i) Forest Management

ii) Habitat conservation

iii) Community participation

Disaster Management Policy Measures: i. Forecasting and warning system ii. Preparedness iii. Management iv. Recovery and rehabilitation

Forestry and Biodiversity

17

Policy Measures

i) Monitoring and forecasting of

outbreak

ii) Plans and policies

iii) Training and capacity building

iv) Resource management

Health

18

19

Mitigation

KEY SECTORS

• Energy

• Transport

• Agriculture & Livestock

• Forestry

• Town Planning

• Industries

20

Energy

Policy Measures:

i) Energy mix

ii) Renewable energy

iii) Energy efficiency

iv) Energy conservation

Transport

Policy Measures:

i) Road Transport

ii) Mass transit system

iii) Fuel efficiency

21

Agriculture and Livestock Policy Measures:

i) Reduce GHG emissions from rice cultivation

ii) Reduce release of Nitrous Oxide from agricultural soils/ Nitrogenous fertilizer

iii) Reduce GHG emissions from enteric fermentation

iv) Manure management

Forestry Policy Measures:

i) Carbon sequestration

ii) Develop national REDD+ strategies

and programs

iii) Accessing carbon markets

Climate Finance

• Green Climate Fund

• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

• Adaptation Fund

• Global Environmental Facility

• National Climate Change Fund/Facility

22

23

KEY STAKE HOLDERS

1.INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

• UN Organizations : UNFCCC , KP and IPCC

2.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:

• Ministry of Climate Change Division: Policies and Programs

• Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Climate International Politics/ Negotiations

• Ministry of Planning , Development and Reforms: Mainstreaming Climate Change into Development Process/Plan.

• Ministry of Finance: Developing Linkage with International Finance Architecture

• Ministry of Science & Technology: Research & Development

• Ministry of Water & Power: Tapping Benefit of International Finances.

• Ministry of Food Security & Agriculture : Tapping Benefit of International Finances.

3. PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS:

• Implementation of National Climate Change Policy and Plans in an Integrated manner to report the National Status.

24

KEY STAKE HOLDERS (Contd.)

4. PRIVATE SECTOR

Green Technology, Green Business

5. MEDIA

Awareness

6. ACADEMIA

Research

7. CIVIL SOCIETY:

Change in life style, Green Consumerism

BENEFICIARY : The Whole of Mankind

25

• “Action Plan” for its implementation has been prepared.

• All relevant ministries, departments and agencies in process of

devising plans to implement the policy recommendations

relating to their respective sectors/sub-sectors.

Implementation Mechanism

26

Composition of National Climate Change Policy

Implementation Committee (NCCPIC)

– Minister of Climate Change at the Federal Level (Chair)

– Secretaries of Ministries responsible for Climate Change/ Planning and

Development / Foreign Affairs/ Science and Technology/ Industries and

Production/Finance/ Water and Power/ Food and Agriculture/ Health/

Defense;

Implementation Mechanism

27

• The “National and Provincial Climate Change Policy

Implementation Committees” meets biannually.

• The Provincial Committees report the status of implementation

of the Policy to the National Committee periodically.

• The National Committee report to the “Prime Minister’s

Committee on Climate Change” on a regular basis.

Implementation Mechanism

28

–Awareness

–Capacity and Technical Know-How

–Finances

CHALLENGES TO POLICY IMPLEMENTATION

29

18 May 2015

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Thank You