redistricting status report: nuts & bolts by kimball brace september 9, 2011 election data...

RedistrictingStatus Report:Nuts & BoltsBy Kimball Brace

September 9, 2011 Election Data Services, Inc.

Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?Since 1986, we’ve been on your wall.

In 2010/11 you’ll need a larger wall

Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?

Since 1979, more than half the nation

has been helped by Election Data Services in

redistricting

Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?

Since 1980, kept track of what voting equipment is used in every county of the nation

2010

Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?

If it concerns elections,

And it deals with data …

We’re probably involved

Cameras do not make the pictures,

Photographers do

What does Photography have to do with Redistricting?

“Computers are just a tool.”

George Meier

Staff Director,

Florida House Redistricting Cmte.

“Software can’t create a plan,

Humans do”

A wise man once said:

State Legislatures Pre-Election 2010

Democrat-27

Split-8

Nonpartisan

Republican-14

2010 Results

State Legislatures Post-Election 2010

Democrat-16

Split-6

Undecided/Nonpartisan - 3

Republican- 25

Reapportionment vs RedistrictingWhat’s the difference

• Reapportionment− Allocation of districts to an area

• US Congressional Districts to states• Some states use to allocate legislative

districts to counties

• Redistricting− Crafting of district configurations within an

area• Congressional, state legislative, county

council, city wards, etc.• Usually happens once a decade

−Unless you’re Tom Delay

Historical Apportionment of U.S. House Seats

Net Gain or Loss Since 1930

Redistricting Factors

• One Person, One Vote – Equal size Districts− Congressional− State Legislative− Local

• Voting Rights Act − “Fairly reflect minority strength”

• Kitchen sink− Jurisdiction geography – how to divide− “Community of interest”− Political factors & incumbancy− Compactness− Others

Census Political

TIGER/Line® Files

Other Boundaries

Precinct and

Electoral District

Boundaries

Redistricting Summary

(PL 94-171). ACS Files, Citizenship

Data

Election Returns

and Voting Statistics

Tabular

Spatial

Redistricting Data Cube

© Election Data Services, Inc.

Source of data

Typ

e o

f D

ata

20102000

1990 ?

20102008

20062004

2002

EARLIER?

All Numeric Data to Block Level

Voter RegistrationSystem

Population Data(PL94-171)

Election Returns

Block VAP/Precinct VAP

PrecinctAssignment

Block VAP/Precinct VAP

Geographic Level

County

Precinct

Block

Address

Block Group ACS DataCensus Survey

Block VAP/BG VAP

The Election Process – From a data prospective

Total Population

Voting Age Population

Citizen Voting Age Population

Registration

TurnoutVotes for President

Other Statewide OfficesCongressional

StateLegislature

Race Data -- Decision on use

Practical impact

TIGER Migration Impact

Olympic Command for Redistricting Season:

Let the Games Begin.

This will be ________’s fifth political Olympiad since the Warren Court forced America into the ideological straightjacket of one-person, one-vote 44 years ago.

Like the first four, it will feature outstanding legislative warfare, after which the combatants will go to court and ask a judge who won.

Thank you

Kimball Brace

President

Election Data Services, Inc.

6171 Emerywood Court

Manassas, VA 20112

(703-580-7267 or 202-789-2004)

KBrace@electiondataservices.com or KBrace@aol.com

www.electiondataservices.com