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7/24/2019 Promising Pessimism Reading the Futures to Be Avoided in Biotech
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Promising pessimism: Reading the futures to be avoided in biotechAuthor(s): Richard Tutton
Source: Social Studies of Science, Vol. 41, No. 3 (June 2011), pp. 411-429Published by: Sage Publications, Ltd.Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/41301939Accessed: 28-01-2016 13:58 UTC
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7/24/2019 Promising Pessimism Reading the Futures to Be Avoided in Biotech
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SISIS
Promising pessimism:
Reading
the futures to
be
avoided in biotech
Socialtudiesf cience
41(3)
1 -429
The
uthor(s)
01
Reprints
nd
ermission:agepub.
co.uk/journalsPermissions.na
DOI: .1 77/0306312710397398
sss.sagepub.com
SAGE
Richard
Tutton
ESRC entreor
conomicnd ocial
spects
fGenomics
Cesagen),
Department
f
ociology,
ancaster
niversity,
ancaster,
K
Abstract
A
numberf
ciencend
echnology
tudies
STS)
cholars ave
uggested
hat he
erformativity
of he
forward-looking
tatement'
s n
mportant
nstitutional
lementf
ontemporary
iocapital.
This aperonsidersow, henmakingrojectionshat etupexpectationsboutheirutures,
firmslso
acknowledge
nd
detail herisk actorshat
hey
ace
n
their
perations.
n
other
words,
n ddition
o
projectingptimistic
cenarios,
irmsdvance uchmore
essimisticmages
of
utureshat
hey
ish o
avoid:
ossible
ailures,
isappointments
nd inancialosses. examine
such
essimistic
rojections
n
companyilings
o theUS Securities
nd
Exchange
ommission
(SEC)
nd
nvestigate
heir iscursiveharacter.askwhat alue uch
essimismight
old
or TS
scholarsnterested
n
he
mangle
f ciencend
apital.
sample
he EC
filings
f hree
ompanies:
deCODE
Genetics,
NAPrint enomics
nc.
nd
NitroMednc.
n
their wn
particularays,
these
rojections
xemplify
he
olatility
nd he
promise
f he ife ciences
n he 1st
entury.
My eading
hows
hat
uch
essimistic
isk actortatements
rovidenterestingommentary
n
thedynamicsfrisk nd nnovationn he ontextf ontemporaryiocapital,aisinguestions
to which
nalysts
o datehave
iven
ittlettention.
Keywords
anticipation,iocapital,
utures,
romise,ociology
f
xpectations
STS studies n the
ontemporarymangle'
f
science ndbusiness
ncreasingly
reat he
dynamics
f
hope, nticipation,
ision,
romise
nd
expectation
s centralounderstand-
ing
political conomy
Fortun,
008;
Shapin,
008;
Sunder
ajan,
2006;
Thacker, 005;
Thompson,005). Moreover,work n thesociology f expectationsas argued hat
expectations
ndother uch
creaturesf he uture
ense'
Selin,
008)
are
performative:
Corresponding
uthor:
Richard
utton,
epartment
f
ociology,
SRC entreor conomicnd ocial
spects
fGenomics
(Cesagen),
ancaster
niversity,
ancasterAI
YD,
K.
Email
.tutton@lancaster.ac.uk
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7/24/2019 Promising Pessimism Reading the Futures to Be Avoided in Biotech
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4 1 Social tudies
f
Science
1
3)
that
s,
anticipation
tself onstitutesconomic
nd
epistemic
alue,
and
speculative
claims re fundamentalo the
dynamic rocesses
hat
reatenew socio-technical
et-
works
Brown
t
al.,
2000;
Hedgecoe
nd
Martin,
003).
This
paper
akes
ts
point
f
departure
rom uchwork ut s
specifically
oncerned
ith he oleof
pessimism
n
the
dynamics
f the
promissoryconomy
n
contemporaryiotechnology,
field
hat
ypi-
callyprojects
positive
uturenwhich
ew
biological nowledge
ill
transformuman
health ndbehaviour
hrough
evelopments
uch s
personalized
edicine.
In
ight
f
he inancialrisis fthe
ast
few
years, essimism
as
gained rominence
in
popular
ebates bout
conomics nd
politics.
owards he nd of
2009,
a New York
Times
rticle
uggested
hat enture
apitalists
hould e
renamedventure
essimists',
given
heir
pparent
eluctanceo
nvest
n
nnovative,
igh-risk
tart-ups
Miller, 009).
Thelong ssociation etween essimismndconservativeolitics lso continued ith
John
Derbyshire's
2009)
recent
ook,
WeAre
Doomed which
uxtaposes
Barack
Obama's
audacity
f
hope gainst
is own
perhaps
ronic)
udacity
f
hopelessness.
n
the
biotech ector s
well,
he
filing
or
hapter
1
bankruptcyy
deCODE
Genetics
n
2009
-
oncethe
most
ullish
f
genomics
ompanies
led
to some
pessimistic
ommen-
taries
uggesting
hat he
gene
revolution' as nowover
Matthews,
009).
Of
course,
very
utures
predicated
n
others o be avoided. n
parallel
with
ositive
visions nd
hopes
ffuture
dvancements,
ears nd
tenebrous
maginings
ffutureisk
are often ssociatedwith cientific
nd
technological
hange.
uch
dark
maginaries
have
provided
he
material
f
sciencefiction
ormore
han
century.
utures re con-
tested, hetheronjureds visions fUtopia rdystopia.n thispaper, consider he
significance
f
the
forward-looking
tatement'n
order o
explore
nd
understandhe
roleof
pessimism
n
contemporary
ebates
bout
iotechnology.
n
doing
o,
examine
the
relationship
etween
romising
nd
pessimistic
uturesonstructedn
company
il-
ings
o the
US Securitiesnd
Exchange
ommission
SEC).
The
discursive
haracterf
this
pessimism, argue,
should
nterest ocial
scientistswho
study
he
'mangle'
(Pickering,
995)
of science nd
capital
n
the
21st
century.
o
frame his
nalysis,
begin y considering
ow social
scientistshus
arhave
thought
boutforms f
future-
making
n
the reaof
biotechnology.
Sociologies
of
futures,
promises
and
expectations
In
Cynthia
elin's
2008)
words,
those
reaturesfthe
futureense'-
promise,xpecta-
tion,
peculation,
ision,
ope,
prophecy
nd
anticipation
have
become he
ubject
f
analysis
cross he ield f
STS
in
the
ast
wodecades.
uch
analysis
orrows
pon
but
also
diverges
rom arlier ork
uch s
RobertMerton's
1948)
on
self-fulfilling
rophe-
cies.
The
sociology
f
expectations'
hat
merged
n
Europe
n
the ate 1990s
has had
growing
nfluence n
studiesof
scientific,
echnological
nd economic
nnovation
(Borup
t
l.,
2006;
Brown t
l.,
2000).
Studies f
the ife ciences
ave
nvestigated
he
role of expectationsn xenotransplantationBrownand Michael,2003), stem cell
research
Martin
t
al.,
2008),
regenerative
edicine
Wainwright
t
al.,
2008),
biobank-
ing
Tutton, 007),
pharmacogenetics
Hedgecoe
and
Martin,
003),
pharmaceuticals
(Williams
t
al.,
2008)
and
anti-ageing
edicine
Mykytyn,
010).
The
sociology
f
expectations
pproach
differs
rom he
realist
orientationf economic
models of
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Tutton 4 1
expectations
hat
ought
o
distinguish
etween ctors'
xpectations
f hefuturendthe
actual
prospects
f an
innovative
rogrammewith
he
gap
between hem
eing
con-
signed
o
hype').
The
sociology
f
expectations
akes he
position
hat t
s
impossible
to
step
utside f
xpectations
odeterminehe
real' valueof
omenew nd
yet
ntested
technology. ccordingly,
e shouldunderstand
xpectations
o be first nd
foremost
' constitutive r
performative
n
attracting
he nterestf
necessary
llies
various
actors
n
nnovation
etworks,nvestors,
egulatory
ctors,
sers nd o
on)
and
n
defin-
ing
roles nd
n
building
mutuallyinding bligations
nd
agendas'
Borup
t
al.,
2006:
289).
Expectations
an thereforee
understoods
'wishful nactments'
f
rather
han
'wishful
hinking'
bout)
desired
utures,
hich
ave vital elational
uality,
rokering
relationships
etween ctors o that
xpectations
an become
mutually
hared
uides
or
action.As Hedgecoeand Martin2003: 329) observe,understandingheformation,
mobilizationnd
hape
fthese
xpectations
r visions
s therefore
entral
o the nal-
ysis
of an
emerging
iotechnology'.
Expectation
s not he
nly oncept
f future
maginings
n social studies
fbiotech-
nology
r biomedicine. elated
notions f
promise
r the
promissory
avebeen
devel-
oped,
mainly
utnot
xclusively
y
North
merican
cholars
Fortun,
001,
2005,
2008;
Sunder
Rajan,
2006;
Thompson,
005).
Charis
Thompson
ses
the term
promissory
capital'
o describe he biomedical
modeof
reproduction'
hrough
hich
odily
issues
and
organs
btain alue
n
ystems
f
xchange
or heir
otential
ses. She
suggests
hat
capital
hould e understood
ess
n
terms
f lassic
notions f
ccumulation
n
ndustrial
capitalismndmore s 'constitutivelyromissory'ecausetheir alue unfolds ver
time'
Thompson,
005
258).
Sunder
ajan
2006:
1
6) develops
he dea
of
biocapital'
to
nvestigate
he
ontemporary
implosion'
f cience
nd
capitalism
hat e
calls,
using
Joseph
umit's
2003)
expression,
venture
cience'
hat s
engaged
n
the
imultaneous
production
f
scientificact nd
capitalistic
alue.
Venturecience
s
promissory,
isky
and
defined
y
vision nd
hype.
To
generate
alue
n thename
of
realizing promised
future,
enturecience
ellsthat
ision ven
f
as
is often he
ase
-
this
s nevermate-
rialized s
sold.The notion f
promise
s also
taken
p
by
Michael
Fortun
2001,
2005,
2008)
nhis
tudy
fdeCODE
Genetics nd
he
ontroversy
hat
urrounded
he celandic
Health ector atabase decade go.Apromise, eobserves,ends o be ascribed oan
utterancef he
orm
I
promise',
binding
contract'bout
future ade
by
one
person
to another.
n
practice,
owever,
romises
re
volatile nd
diffuse,
panning
ifferent
spaces,
different
emporalities
nd
different
ntities.
ot
only
an
an individual
make
promise
o a
recipient,
he or
he
also
can declare
hat
thing
s
promising.
ortun
on-
cludesthat:
promising
annot e
reduced
o
empty
ype,
r
to a formal
ontract,
ut
occupies
he
uncertain,
ifficult
pace
n between'
Fortun,
005:
158).
North
merican
scholars ave
emphasizedpromise'
ather
han
expectation'
s the
key oncept
n their
work n the
dynamics
f
future-making.
he different
nalytical urchase
rovided
y
these
oncepts
s
beyond
he
cope
of the
present aper,
ut
s the
ubject
f
ongoing
work n theroleof variousmaginariesn STS scholarshipnscience, echnologynd
capital
McNeil
et
al.,
2010).
Investors,
cientistsr
politicians
re
farfrom he
only ypes
f
people
engaged
n
work f
future-making;
s a
number f authors
ave
shown,
atients
ith
ncurable
r
chronic
diseases and theirrelatives
lso
mobilize
around
hopes
(and
sometimes
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4
1 Social tudies
f
Science
1(3)
promises)
f future
nwhich ew
reatmentsnd ures
will
be available
Epstein,
996;
Gibbon, 007; Novas, 006;Rapp, 000).
CarlosNovas
2006)
framesuch ituationsn
terms fthe
political
conomy
f
hope'.
Disease
advocacy
rganizations
ork o trans-
late
ndividual
xperiences
f disease nto
ollective,
olitical rojects
hat
an,
when
successful,
re)shape
cientificesearch
riorities
nd
practices,
irect he llocation f
public
esources,
nd
gainrepresentation
n
policy-making
r
advisory
odies.
Hopes
-
like
expectations
nd
promises
are relational:
hey
ind
people together
n
situations
that re
often
marked
y
desperation
nd enrol hem n
aspirations
or future
hat
s
open
ndnot nevitable.
The
affective imensions f
futurity
nvoked
y
hope
are also
explored y
Adams
et al.
(2009)
with heir otion f
anticipation.
hat
hey
all the
breathless
uturology'
of biotech nvolves oth politics faffect elated o thehopesanddesires fpeople
seeking
linical ures nd
speculative
pistemologies
bout
new
knowledge
nd tech-
nologies. hey
laim hat
anticipation
as become
common,
ived ffect-statef
daily
life,
haping egimes
f
self,
health nd
spirituality'Adams
et
al.,
2009:
247);
it has
become
hegemonic
ormationhat xtendsnto
many
renas f ocial ife.
Anticipation
hasbecome n
episteme
haracterized
y
everal orms f
moral
esponsibility:
o antici-
pate,
e informed
bout
nd stand
eady
or he
future(s);
o make hoices
boutdiver-
gent
ourses
f action n
theface of
mperfectnowledge;
o
secure hebest
possible
futuresor
neself;
nd to
anticipate
ew domains n
which,
or
xample,
o
leverage
valuefrom
xisting
esources.
Accountability,
disappointment
and
pessimism
Accountability
s
a
major
heme hat uns
hrough
ll of
the ocial studies f
expecta-
tions,
romises,
isions,
ope
nd
nticipation
iscussed
bove.
f
we cannot
tep
utside
the
conceptions
nd
practices
we
study,
ow do we
hold
expectations
nd
promises
articulated
y
scientists
nd others o account? ow
do we decide
whetherhe
hopes
of
advocacy rganizations
cting
n
thename f
the
erminally
ll
for futureure re
real-
isticor not?Can we ourselves
nticipate
hether r not
particular
nticipation
f a
futures warranted?sBorup t al. (2006) acknowledge,he rticulationf anexpecta-
tion
does
not
utomatically
roduce
ccountability.
owever,
t
can
prompt
hallenges
from
thers,
hocall for
ccountability.
ome
social scientists
ave
themselvesnsisted
on such
ccountability,
n
critical tudies fwhat
hey
ee
as the
unrealistic
xpectations
promotedy
specific
ctors n
the nnovation
rocess
whomake
grand
laims bout he
revolutionary
mpact
f
biotechnology
Hopkins
t
al., 2007;
Nightingale
nd
Martin,
2004).
Nightingale
nd Martin
2004:
568),
for
nstance,
rgue
hat ome
government
and
ndustrygents
ave
exaggerated
he
peed
of
nnovation
n
biotechnology,eading
'to
poor
nvestment
ecisions,
misplaced ope,
nddistorted
riorities'.
hesecritics o
not
tep
outside he
anticipatoryegimes'
f
biotechnology
ut
nstead
perate
within
themnan effortoretunehe xpectationst
play
nrelation o
emerging
aterialities.
What
s
the
purpose
f these
ttempts
o hold o
account he
ways
n
which uturesre
presented
n
thehere nd now? s itto
avoid
disappointment
nd what
Nightingale
nd
Martin
all
misplaced ope'?
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Tutton
4
1
I
ask these
uestions
ecause t
would eem hat
isappointment,
ailure
o
ive
up
to
expectations
nd
to fulfil
romises,
nd
the
possibility
hat
hopes
will
remain nreal-
ized
but
not
necessarily ashed)
hould
lways
be
anticipated.
s
Borup
t al.
(2006:
295)
acknowledge,
e should
lways
expect
hat he
future
ill
underperform.
his
raises number f ssues:
first,
nd this
s where he
ociology
f
expectations
eparts
from hework f RobertMerton
1948)
on
self-fulfillingrophecies,
t s not he
ase,
as Pollock nd Williams
2010: 5)
observe,
hat
any
vision,
f
handled nd
communi-
cated
byenough
eliable
ctors,
ould
become rue'.
The
challenge
o
scholars,
ollock
andWilliams
ightly
ote,
s to
understand
hy
ome
expectations
aterialize
nd
oth-
ers do not an
understanding
hat
would benefit
rom
onsidering
ifferentorms
f
performativity
see
for
xample,
Mackenzie
2006)
and Callon
1998)).
It also
shows
that isappointments integralo thewaythat xpectations ork n science nd tech-
nology, rompting
he
uestion
fhow
disappointments
r
past
failures re
negotiated,
accounted or nd
managed
n
ways
that an
sometimes
hape
new
cycles
of
expecta-
tions
Arribas-Ayllon
t
al.,
2010).
As
Borup
t al.
2006:
290)
note,
whilefailure
omes
at
a
price
n lost
nvestment,
nergy
nd
time,
in
practice
t remains
ifficulto see
whether this ime our
high xpectations
ight
e
ustifiably
arranted'.
n
some
areas
of sociotechnical
ife,
owever,
uch s warfare
r efforts
o
preserve
he
natural
environment',
essimism
bout the future
as been
pronounced.
n
Technology
Pessimism nd Postmodernism
Leo Marx
rgues
hat:
TheWest's ominanteliefystemurnedn the deaoftechnicalnnovations a primary
agent
f
progress
..
[however]
ore nd
more
eople
n he advanced'
ocieties
ave ad
o
considerhe
ossibility
hathe
rogressive
genda,
ithts
romise
f
imitless
rowth
nd
continuing
mprovement
n
he onditions
f ife or
veryone,
as
not
een,
nd
erhaps
ever
willbe realised. he
sudden
ashing
f
these
opes
urely
ccounts
ormuch
f
today's
widespreadechnologicalessimism.
Marx, 994:13)
For
Marx,
his
essimism rimarily
entres
oton advances
n
the
biomedical
ife ci-
encesbut n the
echnologies
fwar nd
on concerns
bout nvironmental
egradation.
With he
prospect
f
peak
oil,
widespread
eforestation,
estruction
f animal
pecies,
pollutionfwater ourses, rought,ndrising arbon missionseading o a forecasted
futuref
rising emperatures
ndclimatic
olatility,
uch
pessimism
s
hardly urprising.
Yet
n
the ace f
uch
cenarios,
ld
promises
anbe
revived,
uch s
nuclear
ower,
nd
newones
developed,
uch s carbon
apture,
ith he im
of
changing redicted
utures.
However,
t s
beyond
he
cope
of
this
aper
o take
n thedifferent
romissory
nd
pes-
simistic
ynamics
t work
n such
divergent
reas
of science
nd
technology.
With eference
o the ontext f the
biomedical
ife
ciences,
his
aper
s concerned
with
ow
futures
re made
n
the
present
nd the
elationship
etween
romise
nd
pes-
simism
n
this
uture-making.
n
deal ite
for his
nalysis
s the
nstitutional
ramework
of the
forward-looking
tatement',
particularegulatory
nstrument
f
corporate
ov-
ernancentheUS that oth nables
nscriptions
ffuturesnd
governs
hose
nscriptions
according
ocertain ules fdiscourse.
cholars
uch s Sunder
ajan
2006)
and
Shapin
(2008)
have identifiedhisframework
s
being
n
important
promissory'
lement
n
contemporaryiocapital.
n
what
follows,
outline
he
history
f how this
framework
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4 1
Social tudies
f
Science
1
3)
came
obe established
ntheUS and
discuss ome f ts alient eatures
efore
onsidering
in moredetail
how,
n this
framework,essimism lays
an
importantart
n
making
possible
he
nscription
f
promissory
utures.
Safe
harbours,
speculation
and
disclosure
Along
with hose
f
companies perating
n
other
ectors,
orward-looking
tatements
n
press
eleases,
ublic
peeches,
ther
romotional
aterialsnd
registration
ocuments
made
by genomics
nd
biotechnology
irms
egistered
iththe US Securities
nd
Exchange
ommission
re
egally rotected.
uch
protection
s
granted y
thePrivate
Securities
itigation
eform ct
passedby
theUS
Congress
n 1995
Pub.
L.
104-67,
109 Stat. 37),which oughtopreventabusive' itigationgainst irmsy nvestorsr
their
epresentatives
n
response
o losses due to
falling
hare
prices
Johnson
t
al.,
2001).
The 1995 Act
marked
significant
eparture
or he
SEC,
whichwas
founded
shortly
fter heWall
Street rash f 1929torestorenvestoronfidence
ith
egulations
that
mphasized
onest ndwhat
oday
wouldbe called
transparent'
ommunications
y
firms
Securities
nd
Exchange
ommission,
010).
Given
ts
view that he
Crash
was
caused
by heady peculation
nd
easy
credit,
he SEC
prohibited
irms rom
ssuing
forward-looking
tatementsecause
uch
tatements
ere
deemed
nreliables sources
of
unfounded
peculation
hat ould
bring
bout nother arketrash
Fortun,008).
In
1979,
theSEC
revisitedhe ssue and
originated
he
concept
f the safe harbour'
or
firmso makeforward-lookingtatementshat ad a 'reasonable asis' andwere rticu-
lated
n
good
faith'
Johnson
t
al.,
2001).
However,
without
egal protection
gainst
possible
itigation,ompanies ppeared
eluctant
o
provide rospective
nformation
such
s forecastsf
future
arnings.
n
1991,
theUS
Congress eganworking
n this
matternd the
egislation
ook
hape
over
henext
years.
he bill
was
passed
by
the
House of
Representatives
nd the
enate,
nd
although
resident
ill
Clinton
etoed
t,
Congress
verrode
is veto
n
late December1995
Spiess
and
Tkac,
1997).
The Act
therefore
as controversialnddebate
mong
cademics nbusiness nd aw schools as
continuedbout ts
mplications
or
nvestors,
ompanies
nd
public
onfidence
Perino,
2003;
Pritchard
nd
Sale,
2005).
TheAct
egally
rotects
ompanies
o makecertain orward-lookingtatementsin
either
ritten
r
spoken
orm)
y providing statutory
safe
harbour',
s
long
s such
statements eet
wocriteria:
irst,
hat
hey
re
clearly
dentified
s
'forward-looking',
and,
econd,
hat
hey
re
accompanied y
meaningful autionaryanguage dentify-
ing important
actors hat ould cause
actualresults o differ rom hose
projected'
(Johnson
t
l.,
2001).
Therefore,
ompanies
se a
particular
ocabulary
o
highlight
hat
their
ress
releases ontain
forward-looking
tatements'.
or
example, press
release
issued
y
deCODE Geneticsnc.
n 2009
noted hat:
These tatements
efero futurevents r ourfuture
inancial
erformance.
n
some
ases,
forward-lookingtatementsanbe dentifiedy erminologyuch s may',should',could',
'expect',plan',
anticipate',
believe',estimate',
predict',
intend',
potential',
r continue'
or the
negative
f such ermsr other
omparableerminology.
hese tatementsre
only
expectations.1
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-
7/24/2019 Promising Pessimism Reading the Futures to Be Avoided in Biotech
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4 1
Social
tudies
f
Science
1(3)
'Subject
o
uncertainty',
wecannot
redict',may
ave
dverse
ffect',
wecannot
e
certain',
'subject
o
he isks f
failure',
thereanbe no
assurance',
our tock
rice
may
ecline',
it
will eyears,f ver',we could ail'.
Considerableabourmust
o
into
writing
uch
pessimistic'
exts-at
eastas much s
goes
into
crafting
bullient
ress
releases.
Consequently,pecialist
ompanies
have
made
promises
o service irms
ndtheir
egal
eams o
speed
up
the
rocess
f
complet-
ing
documentsnd
ensuring
ompliance.
ne ofthese
ompanies,ntelligize
nc. based
in
New
York,
ives
he
following itch:
In
today's
hallenging
egulatory
limate,
he
ost nd
complexity
f
preparingarge
nd
unwieldyocumentsor ECfilingsrising. hent's ime owriterupdate SECforms,
thebest
ractice
s to draw rom
revious
ocumentsnd
passages
s
reference
oints
o
properly
nd
arefully
isclose
nformationo
nvestorsnd
egulators.3
Shapin's
ommentsbout
oilerplating
re
borne ut
by
he
way
hat
ntelligizeperates:
ithas
developed
what tcalls a
'precedent
heck
pplication',
hich
nalyses
housands
ofSEC
10-Kformsnd dentifies
hemost
ommonly
sedrisk
actors.or
xample,
he
top
five isk
actors ound
n
forms
iled ver
6-month
eriod
n
2009
are: failure o
compete uccessfully
73%);
general
conomic
onditions
57%);
dependence
n
man-
agement
eam
47%);
difficulty
f
raising
apital
46%);
and
potential
hare
rice
ola-
tility43%). On the basis of suchanalysis,ntelligizeeeksto identify hat t calls
'markettandards'owhich irms
hould onform
hen
isclosing
o
nvestorsnd
regu-
lators he isk actors
hey
ace
n
their
markets.
dopting
hese
tandards
ims o ensure
fast
nd
uncomplicated
ompliance
ith
heSEC.
Through
oilerplating
nd
standardi-
zation,
he rticulationf risk
herefore
ecomes
generic
ather
han
ingular
uality:
one that hefirm
hareswith ts
ompetitors.
One effectfthe
Private ecurities
itigation
ct s that
he ailure o fulfil
romises
orto
meet nvestors'
xpectations
bout tock
erformance
r
product
evelopment
oes
not
utomatically
ecome lie or
deliberate
isrepresentation.
ccording
o
the
egisla-
tion, laintiffs
eed o
prove
hat he hief
xecutivefficerf he ompanypprovedhe
forward-looking
tatement hile
knowing
t to
be
false
(Spiess
and
Tkac,
1997).
Moreover,
failure o nclude
he
articular
actor
hat
ltimately
ausesthe
rojection
o
be
in
error oes not
preclude
hat
tatementrom
eing rotected
y
the
afeharbours
long
s the actorshat re
dentifiedre
relevanto
the
rojection'
Johnson
t
al.,
2001
301).4
Consequently,
ome
nalysts
eared hat he
Actwould
foster
ver-optimistic
ore-
casts nd
projections,
r,worse,
culture
f
lying'.
ButJohnsont
al.
2001 298)
claim
that heres no
evidence hat
orecastsssued
fter he
Act's
passage
remore
ptimisti-
cally
biased
han hose
ssued
reviously'.
The
extentowhich hese isk
actor
tatements
irculate
ublicly
nd ffect
ndividu-
als decision-makingndudgementsbout he xpectationsffirmsnwhich heymight
invest heir
apital
s
somewhat
nclear. he
readership
f these
exts
may
xtend rom
the taff
tthe
EC,
to
professional
nvestment
anagers esponsible
or
ecommending
or
nvesting
tock n behalf f
trust r
pension
unds,
o
ordinary
nvestors
anting
o
buy
a
stake
n
a listed
ompany
ut
aware of
theneed for
due
diligence.
n
practice,
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Tutton
4 1
however,
t s not lear hat uch
publics ctually
ead uch tatements
espite
he
xhor-
tations f nvestor ebsites
uch s
Investopediacf.Fortun,008).5
How should social
cientistnterested
nthe
ynamics
f
cience,
apital
ndfutures
understandhe
production
f these
risk factor
tatements?
he Private
Securities
Litigation
ct and
tsestablishment
f the
forward-looking
tatement'
s a
key
ite
of
anticipatoryractice
n
the
egalunderpinning
f
biocapital.
onsequently,
suggest
hat
we should hink
bout hese
exts ess
in
terms
f
accountability
nd
more
n
terms
f
how,
ollowing
dams t al.
(2009),
they
orm
art
f
an
anticipatory
egime'
n which
'story
tock'
ompanies,
uch as
thosedescribed
y
Sunder
Rajan
(2006)
and Fortun
(2008),
areforced o tackback
ndforth
etween
essimistic
nd
optimistic
orecasts
f
equally
onditional
utures.o see
these tatements
s
otherwise
erving
o hold
firmso
account or heir laims bout hefuture ouldbe to nvoke herealistmodeoftesting
expectations
gainst
underlying
undamentals'.
his
s
the
view
taken
y
theSEC and
other ctors
n this rena
when
they peak
about
these
texts s
'disclosures'
f
risk
factors.
owever,
uch texts
are
no more nd
no less
speculative
han
he
optimistic
forward-looking
tatements
f
press
releases ...
There's
no reason
to allow
oneself
to be taken
n
by speculative
enomic essimism
han
y
ts cheerier
ibling'
Fortun,
2008:
201).6
It
appears
hat
hedraftersf
the
egislation
id not
ntend o enforce
essimism
n
order
o hold
firms ccountable
or heebullient
utures
hey roject
o attract
nvest-
ment nd
boost heir tock
alue.
nstead,
essimism
as
positioned
o enable
promises:
companies
ouldassert heir
romissory
uturesnlyby promisingo be pessimistic.
Unlike utures
hat rearticulated
n other ites
f
anticipation,
uch s the
press
elease,
pessimistic
utures
magined
n
companies'
EC
filings
re not
performative:
he
firms
do not nact
hese
utures;
nstead,
hrough
he
safe
harbour'
rovisions
fthe
Act,
hey
anticipate
lternative
utures
hey
wish
o avoid.
Beyond erving
heir
egulatory
unction,
hat
kindof
value do these
tatements
have
for heSTS
analyst,
nd
whatuses
can
analysts
makeof
them?
hese statements
delineate utures
hat re
hoped
o
be
unrealized,
utures
hat
re
contingent
nd
uncer-
tain,
nd are
precisely
ot nvisioned
s
performative.
ocial
scientists
enerally
ave
notbeen interestednthesekinds f futures. ikeFortun, owever, ivesa striking
example
fhow
social cientist
an
use such
isk actor
tatements.
e
discusses
ow
he
drew
n such tatements
o
help
nform
ublic
ebate,
s
they rovided
ounter-narratives
to the
argely
bullient nd
celebratory
overage
f
deCODE
Genetics
n
the
celandic
press.
ortun ecounts
hat t a
public
meeting
n
Reykjavik
n
2000,
he
displayed
n an
overhead
rojector
he
ub-headings
rom he
isk
actors
ection
fdeCODE
Genetics'
S-l
documentation,
hichwas
issuedwhen
t went
public.
n that
ection,
eCODE
s
lawyers
etailed ll
the
hings
hat ould
go
wrong
with
he
firm.
his s a
noteworthy
and
probably
xceptional
ublic
use
of such
risknarratives
o
hold a
firm ccountable
for
ts
promises.
Moreover,ortun lso suggestshat hese tatementsstakeouta farmore omplex
and dense
social, scientific,
olitical,
egal
and
ethical
errain
f
genomics'
Fortun,
2008:
201).
On closer
nspection,
hile
boilerplating
s
clearly mportant
o
how this
institutionalized
essimism
s enacted
within
mode f
regulatory
ompliance,
suggest
that
hese exts
rovide
ome
nteresting
nd
perhaps
nexpected
ommentary
n the
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7/24/2019 Promising Pessimism Reading the Futures to Be Avoided in Biotech
11/20
420 Social tudies
f
Science
1
3)
dynamics
f risk nd innovation
n
thecontext f
contemporaryiocapital.
o follow
through
n this
oint,
henext ection
rovides reading
fthe isk actor
tatements
f
three otable nd controversial
ompanies
nthe
genomics
nd
pharmaceutical
ectors
and
explores
hevalue
of such
pessimistic
tatementsor
social science
nalysis.
These statements
are
just expectations9:
Reading
the forward-
looking
statements
The
filings
e shall xamineweremade
by
deCODE
Genetics,
NAPrint
enomicsnc
and
NitroMednc.7 chose
these
ompanies
ecause
they
xemplify
he
volatility
nd
the
promise
f commercialization
n
the ife
ciences,
nd also
have examined heir
particularctivitiesnbiobanking,ersonal enomicsndrace-basedmedicinenprevi-
ous work
Tutton,
007;
Tutton t
al.,
2008).
It
shouldbe noted
hat
n
each of these
companies,
nvestorsnd
employees
ost
money
nd
ivelihoods hen he
alueof tock
in
eachof hese
ompanies ollapsed,
esulting
n
ay-offs
s the irms ere
ither
ought
outor restructured.
The disclosures f these hree
ompanies
rticulate
series f
nterconnectedncer-
tainties,
hich nclude: he
validity
r otherwise f
their cientific
deas and
assump-
tions;
heir
bility
o
develop
products
nd the ikelihood f
those
productsmaking
profit;
he ffect f
changes
n
governmentegulation
n their
bility
o sell and
profit
from heir
roducts;
he
force
f
public pinion
n
legislation
nd
regulations
hat
may
disadvantagehe ompaniesr forcehem ochange hewaythathey perate;ndtheir
ability
o establishmarketsor
heir
roducts.
n
what
ollows,
discusshow
each
of
the
three
ompanies
eal with uch
risks. he
filings
made
by
DNA
PrintGenomics
tand
outbecauseofthedifferent
tyle
n
which
hey
re
written.
DeCODE Genetics nc.
I
suspect
hat eCODE
Genetics nc.
hardly
eeds
any
ntroduction.ounded
n
1996
and
registered
n
the tate f
Delaware,
his irm
as
created o sell the
genetic,
medical
and
genealogical
nformationn theentire
opulation
f
celand s 'sources f
future
medicines'McKie, 1997:14).Theplandeveloped ydeCODE Geneticswith he up-
port
f
the celandic
arliament as to establish
Health ector
atabase: n
electronic
patient
ecord
ystem
hat
wouldbe combined
ith
genealogical
atabase
which
was
already
n
the
ublic
omain)
nd newDNA
database. eCODE
Genetics ecame
on-
troversial,
oth
or
he
way
that t
proceeded
ith n
opt-out
ather
han n
opt-in gree-
mentwith
ubjects
n
theHealth ector
Database
which
ed
ultimately
o
the celand
Supreme
ourt's ecision o striketdown
s
unlawful)
nd
for ow he
ale
of ts
hares
was handled
uring
he otcom
ubble
n
2000. n
common ith
ther
igh-risk
entures
listed n the
NASDAQ,
its
hare aluefell
harply
s the
market
ollapsed.
espite
hav-
ing
never
ctually
onstructed
heHealth
ector
atabase,
eCODE did
establish
large
biobank fmore han140,000 amples nd n2007branched ut nto henascent er-
sonal
genomics
market ith
product
alled deCODE
Me.
In
2009,
aftermonths f
speculation
bout ts
financial
ealth,
eCODE
filedfor
bankruptcy
nd,
following
restructuring,
as re-launched
s a
private
ompany
n
celand,
wned
by
a number f
investment
rganizations.
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Tutton
42 1
To
begin
with,
eCODE
acknowledges
he
ncertainndcontested ature
f he asic
science hat
nderpins
heresearch nd
development
n which thas been
engaged.
n a
2008
filing,
t sserted:
The
products
e
hope
o
develop
.. arebased
n he
ssumption
hatnformation
bout
enes
may
elp
cientistsobetternderstand
omplex
isease
rocesses.
cientists
enerally
ave
limited
nderstanding
f therole
of
genes
n
diseases,
nd
few
products
ased
on
gene
discoveriesave een
eveloped
...
If
our
ssumption
bout
he ole f
genes
n
the isease
process
s
wrong,
ur
ene
iscovery
rograms
ay
ot
esult
n
products.
deCODE
Genetics
Inc.,
008)
Another
ignificant
isk
s that he
roducts
or future
roducts
that eCODE
andthe
other
ompanies eveloped
might
ot
ctually
work, r won'tbe
approved,
might ot
compete
with hose ftheir
ivals,
r
might
ot ell
n
sufficient
uantities
o
ustify
he
research hatwent
nto
developing
hem.On
its
corporate
ebsite
n
2009,
deCODE
Genetics escribed
tself s
'developing
rugs
nd
DNA-based
tests o
improve
he
treatment,
iagnosis
nd
prevention
f common
iseases
deCODE
is
delivering
n
the
romise
fthenew
genetics'.
n
an SEC
filing
more
ontingent
ccount
was
given
about ts
genes
to
drugs
ipeline':
We
expect
hat t
will be
years,
f
ever,
efore
we
will
recognize ignificant
evenue
rom he
development
f
therapeutic
r
diagnostic
products.'8
his is all the
more
interesting
ince a number
f commentaries
hat
appearednthewake of deCODE s 2009 filing orChapter 1bankruptcyaderefer-
enceto howthe
therwise
ery
ood
science
produced
y
deCode
s researchers
id not
lend tself o
commercialization.
NitroMed
nc.
NitroMed
nc.,
best
known or ts
controversial
rug
BiDil,
was a
small
pharmaceutical
company
stablished
n
Cambridge,
A,
USA.
In
1999,
NitroMed
cquired
he ntel-
lectual
roperty
ights
o
BiDil,
a
drug
hat ts
original
wners
were
recasting referen-
tially
o benefit
frican-American
atients
with
congestive
eartfailure.
n
2000,
NitroMediled patentpplicationstablishingts laim,whichwas then rantedythe
US Patent
ndTrademark
ffice
PTO)
in
2003
(Kahn,
004).
In
order
o
gain pproval
to market he
drug,
NitroMed
ponsored
clinical
trial alled
A-HeFT
(the
African
American eart
ailure
rial)
hat
was halted
arly
n 2004 because
of
ts lear
fficacy
in
treating
his isease
n ts rial
opulation
f
self-identified)
frican-
mericans.9
he
results
ere
published
n theNew
England
Journal
f
Medicine
andthe
Food and
Drug
Administration
FDA) granted pproval
n June 005.
Despite
successfully
chieving
this
regulatorypproval,
he
company
was soon
subjected
o intense
riticism
n
a
numberf
fronts,
uch s the
esign
ndconduct
f ts
linical rial
Kahn,
008)
and
the
claim
hat twas
exploiting
ntrenched
ealth
isparities
mongst
acial/ethnic
roups
n
theUS for tsowncommercialain Boche,2004; Ellisonetal., 2008).Within few
years
f BiDil
being pproved,
owever,
he
ompany
ound hat
he ize
of the
market
for his
rug
was smaller han
xpected.
ayoffs
nsued,
nd
the
firm
topped
ctively
marketing
iDil. In
early
009,
the
firmwas
bought
ut
by
Deerfield
Management,
leading
ealthcare
nvestor
ompany
n
theUS.
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422
Social tudies
f
Science
1
3)
As with eCODE
Genetics,
itroMed lso noted
n
tsNovember 004
filing
bout
the
cience hat
nderpinned
tsbusiness hat ts
pplication
f nitric xide
technology
had
yet
to be
proven
n humans. ince this
filing rovided
he scientific asis
of
NitroMed's
roduct ipeline,
here as the
danger
hat
ompany
ouldnot
uccessfully
develop
ndmarketts
products.
The uncertainties
nd
contingencies
f
drugdevelopment
ere
given engthy
reat-
ment
n
this
iling.
ne
passage
etout he
many roblems
hat he
ompany
might
ace
when
eeking
o
bring drug
o market: ifficultiesith
btainingegulatorypproval
to start clinical
rial;
he
possibility
f
getting
nfavourable
esults;
rials
eing
us-
pended
ecause of risks
o
participants;
nd,
finally,
he
potential
bandonment
f
the
entire
rocess:
Adverse
r nconclusivelinical rial esults
oncerningny
f our
drug
andidates
ould
require
s toconduct
dditional
linical
rials,
esult
n
ncreasedosts nd
ignificantlyelay
the
iling
or
marketingpproval
or hose
rug
andidatesith he DA
or esult
n
filing
or
a narrowerndication
han
was
originallyought
r result
n
a decision o discontinue
development
f hose
rug
andidates.
NitroMed004)
Regulation
s
both a
necessary
nd uncertain
rocess
forbiotech
companies,
nd
engagement
ith
egulatory
gencies
s
at theforefrontf
company
isk
perceptions.
NitroMed's
xperience
ithBiDil is
particularlynteresting
or ur
purposes,
ince t
was one ofthemost ontroversialpisodes nthat irm's istory. itroMed tated hat
itsentire usiness
lan depended
n
securing
DA
approval:
We
re
eavily
ependent
n
btaining
egulatorypproval
or
nd
uccessfullyommercializing
BiDil,
urmostdvanced
rug
andidate...
If
wefail o chieve
egulatory
pproval
r
market
acceptance
f
BiDil,
ur ear-term
bility
o
generateroduct
evenue,
ur
eputation
nd ur
ability
oraise dditional
apital
ill e
materially
mpaired,
nd he alue f n nvestment
n
our tock
ill
ecline.
NitroMed,
004)
Weighing p
the
otential
utcome f ts
pplication,
he
filing cknowledged
hat:
To
our
knowledge,
he DA hasnever
pproveddrug roduct
or se
n
particular
thnic
population.
heFDA's
receptiveness
o
drugs
hat re
pproved
ndmarketed
n the asis
ofdifferent
thnicity-based
herapeutic
utcomess
untestednd
may
e
adversely
ffected
by ontrary
cientificr
public
ealth vidence r
political
r
egal
factors.or
xample,
scientific
videnceould
merge
hat
uggests
hat here
s no
physiological
asis o
upport
pharmaceuticalevelopment
f
drugs
ased
pon thnicity.
oreover,
thers
ay
xpress
he
view hat
thnicity
s
only
sociologicaloncept
nd,
ccordingly,
heresnot
valid asis
or
the ommercializationfmedicinesased n
thnicity.
hese
actorsr thers could
revent
us from
btaining
DA
approval
fBiDil.
NitroMed,004)
The filing hereforeresentsheregulations being hapedbydiverse ctorswithin
and
beyond
cience.NitroMed's ccount f
the
hen
ncertainuturef ts
pplication
highlights
echnical oncerns: t
suggests
hat cientific vidence ould
emerge
hat
would refute he
company's
laim of
a
pathophysiological
ifference ith
espect
o
heart iseasebetween frican-
mericans nd other
acial/ethnic
roups, ndermining
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Tutton
423
the ationale or
pproving
iDil
as a
drug rescribed
orAfrican-mericans
recalling
that he
drug
ad
already
ailed
n
the 1990stests o
ive
up
to ts
promise
or he
ntire
population). nterestingly,
t the time there lso was
(and
there till
remains)
no
evidence
or
his
athophysiological
ifference. hen he
tatementlludes
o
political
and
egal
factors',
t also
highlights
hat here re
others'who advance
heview that
ethnicity
s
only sociological oncept'
an
oblique
reference
o theheated
ebate
n
academic
ournals
nd
the
popular
ress
bout
BiDil
(Anonymous,
005;
Caulfield nd
Harry,
008).
Furthermore,
uch concerns boutmarket
cceptance
ontinue ven
after
pproval.
NitroMed bserved hat:
Key participantsn theU.S. pharmaceuticalarketplace,uch s physicians,ayorsnd
patients,
ay
ot
ccept product
ntendedo
mprove
herapeutic
esultsased
n
ethnicity.
As a
result,
t
may
e
more ifficultor s to onvince
hemedical
ommunity
nd
hird-party
payors
nd
atients
o
ccept
nd seour
roducts.
ur
usiness
s
substantially
ependent
n
market
cceptance
f
BiDil.
NitroMed,
004)
Clearly,
here re
many
ayers
o this
notion f market
cceptance'.
o achieve
market
acceptance
meansnot
only eaching
utto
individual
onsumers,
ut lso
to the
ctors
thatmediate
ransactions
n
the
pharmaceutical
arket,
uch as doctors
who have
the
power
o
prescribe
nd
thehealthcare
nsurers ho authorize
he
xpenditure
n the
pre-
scriptionfdrugs. venwhen companychieves egulatorypproval, ainingmarket
acceptance
s a crucial ondition
or he
rofitability
f the
ompany.
DNA PrintGenomics
nc.
DNA PrintGenomics
was founded
n
1999
by
Tony
Frudakis,
research
cientist
t
Corixa
Corporation,pharmaceutical
irm
n
theUS.
Frudakis
ad been
nvolved
with
Corixa's
predecessor,
AFF
Biologic,
DNA
testing
aboratory
hat
imed o
reduce he
cost of
genetic esting
o the
point
f
being
within hereach
of
everyday
onsumers.
DNA Print as listed n the
Nasdaq,
and
over he
next ew
years
talso
acquired
ther
companies.ts main erviceswere nforensic,harmacogeneticndconsumerncestry
testing.
owever,
t
gained
oth
national nd
nternational
eputation
ue
to tsforensic
application
f
ncestryesting.
he
company's
pparent
chievements
n
dentifying
us-
pects
n a series f US
criminalases attracted
edia ttention
nd
was the
ubject
f a
numberf
news
tories.10
espite
he
pparent
uccess f
this
pplication,
hich
ormed
part
f the
company's
evenue
tream,
n
early
009
DNA PrintGenomics
wentbust
after deal
withNanobac
Pharmaceuticalso
acquire
he
ompany
ell
hrough.11
While he
ilings
fdeCODE
andNitroMed
mack
f
having
een
drafted
y
awyers,
the one
of the2006
filing
y
DNA Print s much
more
nformal.or
example,
t fre-
quently rovides
more ccessible
xplanations
f technical
erms,
uch s
single
nucle-
otide olymorphisms.
This more nformal
tyle
s
very
much
n evidence
n the
following
tatement
n
whetherts
products,
hich
lready
were
on the
market,
ould
generate
rofit
n the
longer
erm. he
company xpressed
ncertainty,iving
he
following
lunt ssessment
ofthe ituationtfaced:
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7/24/2019 Promising Pessimism Reading the Futures to Be Avoided in Biotech
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424 Social tudies
f
cience
1
3)
We
remain
keptical
hat he onsumer
arketor ur
roducts,
hichs
mainly
upportedy
genealogy
nthusiasts,
ill emain
trongnough
o
ustifyignificant
xpenditures
o
develop
new roducts.t spossiblehat he pplicationfgeneticestingogenealogys apassingad
and hat
ublic
nterest
n
geneticenealogy
esting
ill
ubstantially
ecrease.f
ublic
nterest
decreases,
ur
evenues
enerated
rom
ur
roducts
old othe
onsumer arket ill
ikely
decrease.
DNAPrint,006)
Such
xpressedcepticism
bout ts wnfutures
quite triking,
nd s
typical
f
he if-
ferent
tyle
n
which his
iling
s written
ompared
o those fthe
ther wo
ompanies.
This s also an
interesting
ssessment f the
market,
inceevidence n the
number f
products
old
uggested
hat he
market
or
enetic
ncestry
r
genealogical
ervices as
themost uccessful orm f
direct-to-consumer
enetic esting
t that ime
Wolinksy,
2006).
In the ame
filing,
NA Print enomics lsoreflectedn reactions othe2005
approval
f
BiDil
by
theFDA.
It notes hat
he
ontroversy
hat
ad surrounded
iDil
could
havewider
mplications
or
ublic
pinion
n suchmatters
s
genetic
esting:
Recently,
rticles
ave
ppearedccusing
he DA
nd
NitroMed
f
racial
iscrimination'nd
claiming
hat o
drugs
hould e
developed
sing enetic
esting
hat
might
eparate
ut
individuals
y
race,
olor r reed'
ithout
egard
o he
enefithich
ight
ecaused or he
Africanmerican
atient.
ccording
o
uch
ritics,
he
otential
armn
he ormf
ncreased
discriminationar
utweighs
hebenefits.
everal
oteworthy
enetic
cientistsave lso
voiced heir
pinions
hat ur
echnology
nd
technologies
imilaro
those
eveloped
y
NitroMedrediscriminatingnd hould ot edevelopedr pprovedy he ederal,tater
local
overnments.DNAPrint,006)
This
statementinks commentaries
n the
technologies
evelopedby
DNA Print
Genomicswith he
ontroversy
hat ad surrounded
itroMed
harmaceuticalsnd the
approval
nd
marketing
f BiDil. As
point
f
fact,
n
designing
heir linical rials
or
BiDil,
NitroMed idnot se
genetic
esting
o
select
atients
ndno
such est xisted
or
the linical
rescription
f
that
rug.
As I
indicated
bove,
one of the
major
ources f
controversy
as the
way
the
A-HeFT trial
elied n
self-identifiedocial
categories
f
'Black' or African-merican' s proxies or predictedathophysiologicalifferences
between
ategories
n
the
human
opulation.
n
any
ase,
despite
he
pparent
isunder-
standing,
his tatement
onethelessevealshow DNA
Print
erceived
he
relevance f
controversiesbout he
products
f other
ompanies.
n
this
nstance,
NA
Print
osi-
tioned tself
s
sharing
zone of risk
with
NitroMed;
zone
in
which heir
roducts
were lso
subject
o
critique y
scientistsn
the
grounds
f
racial
discrimination.
The risk
factor tatementsf
SEC
filings
made
by
these hree
ompanies
herefore
inscribe
pessimistic
uture
istinguishedy
uncertainty,nticipations
f failure
ather
than
uccess,
nd
possible
isks
nd hazards
nstead f
promises
nd
hopes.
Far from
being
ormulaicnd
bland,
uchnarrations
rovide
nteresting
ontrasts
o
corporate
ress
releases, ebsites ndmedia nterviewshathould e of nterestosocial cientists.
Promising pessimism
This
paper
focused n the
nstitutional
rameworkf
thePrivate
ecurities
itigation
Act and ts
egal protection
f the
forward-looking
tatements'
hrough
hich
utures
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7/24/2019 Promising Pessimism Reading the Futures to Be Avoided in Biotech
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Tutton
425
are
projected.
argued
hat he o-articulationf
pessimistic
nd
promising
utures
n
such statementsonstituten
important
ite of
anticipatoryractice
or
ontemporary
biocapital.
In
the
egime
f
biocapital,
ompanies
re
compelled
o nhabitones
of
contingency
about heir uturesnd
to
engage
n
anticipatory
ork
n both
romising
nd
pessimistic
registers.
essimistic
epresentations
f
the future annot
be treated
eparately
rom
promissoryepresentations
and
surely
he EC
would dvise hat ne
should ever
ead
them
eparately). ndoubtedly,
he
roduction
f
uch tatements
eeps
awyers
n
busi-
ness nd serves o
nformnvestment
ecisions,
llowing
he EC
commissioners
o feel
that
hey
re
protecting
nvestors. hether
r not
they
erve
nvestorss
better
uides
tothe uturehan
ositive
laimsmade
n
company ress
eleases hould
e left o
others
to debate.nthis aper, havebeenmore nterestednconsideringheir aluefor ocial
scientists.
arlier,
suggested
hat heSEC
registration
ocuments an
instance f how
every romising
utures
predicated
n anothermore
essimistic
uture
o be avoided.
How
suchdocumentsnscribe
ubject ositions,
dentities
nd
nterests,
nd
align
vari-
ous actors
n
a
negative
iew of future
ircumstances,
houldbe of nterest
or nder-
standing
he
contemporary
errain
f
genomics,
with ts
social,
political,
egal
and
commercial
ntanglements.
hese documents
re not
imply
roduced
hrough
oiler-
plating:
n closer
nspection
hey
rovide
pecific
nd
contingent
ommentaries
nd
observations
hat eveal
omplexities
nthe ommercial
orlds
f he ife
ciences.
hey
outline ncertainties
ith
eveloping roducts
nd
bringing
hem
o
market,
nderline
the
mportance
nd difficultiesfforminglliances, lluminatehepervasive oleof
regulation,
ndreveal he ense
networksf
nterestsnd
ctors nvolved
n
those
worlds.
The statements
uoted
arlier
rom othNitroMed
nd
DNA PrintGenomics
lso
drew ttentiono
how
ocial,
egal
nd ethical ebate
mong
cademics nd
other ctors
formed
art
f he
isky
errain
nwhich hose
ompanies perated.
his
helps
o
explain
why
n
2006 and
2007
representatives
fNitroMed
nd other
dvocates
fthe
pproval
of
BiDil
took
heunusual
tep
f
attending
cademic
meetings
t
MIT on
developments
in
race,
cience nd
medicine,
nwhich
eading
ritics uch s
Troy
uster ndJonathan
Kahnwere
peakers.12
uring
he
econd f hese
meetings,
n
2007,
tbecame lear
hat
some upportersfthedrug's pprovalwere oncernedhat he rgumentsdvanced y
'liberal ocial
scientists',
uch
s those
peaking
t that
meeting,
ere
having
n
adverse
effectn
the
willingness
fHealth
Maintenance
rganizations
o reimburse
or
rescrip-
tions f he
rug.
Whetherrnot his
laimwas
well
supported,
t
vividly
llustrated
ow
participants
n
debates
boutnew
developments
n
science,
echnology
ndmedicine
an
themselves
ecome
risk
actors',
rom he
point
f
view of
companies
romoting
hese
developments,
ith
potentialmplications
or
regulatorypproval,
market
cceptance
and
profitability.
From n STS
perspective
heres more
obe saidabout
he
alueof
being essimistic,
even
n
such
n institutionalized
orm.
rojections
f bad
things
hat
an
happen
ore-
ground omplexitiesndcontingencieshat nterestTS scholarsndotherocialscien-
tists.
herefore,
ttention
hould lso
be
given
o
the onstruction
f
pessimistic
utures,
since o much
lready
as been
devoted o
positive
xpectations,
opes
and
promises.
The SEC documents
rovide
xcellent
material
orfurther
esearch,
s this
paper
has
only ampled
he
ilings
fthree
ompanies,
ndthere
s a wealth
f
potentially
ascinat-
ingfilings
vailablefrom he
SEC's online
atabase.
his
study
s
only
startingoint
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426
Social tudies
f
Science
1(3)
for
onsidering
ow
pessimism
s articulated
nd serves o
shape
xpectations.
hile
haveno desire o
alignmyself
ith
onservativeommentatorsuch
s
John
erbyshire,
perhaps
heres
something
o commend
essimism
or
nalysts
nterestedn
understand-
ing
the
ocial,
political,egal
and commercial
ntanglements
f
promises
nd
expecta-
tions
n
the
ontemporary
ife
ciences. hiscouldbe
rather
romising.
Acknowledgements
I
wouldike o hank oan aran ndMike
ortunor
aking
he
ime oread nd
ommentn n
earlier ersionf his
aper,
s well s the
hree
nonymous
eferees hohave ll
helped
ith
strengtheningy rguments.
hankslsoto Mike
Lynch
ho
provided
ncisiveditorial
nput
into he
aper.
alsobenefitedrom
resenting
his
work
tvarious
onferencesnd
workshops
and, or heirommentsn hoseccasions,wouldike o hank dam edgecoe,uth cNally
andAaron
anofsky.
he
upport
f
heUK
Economic
nd
ocial
Research ouncil
ESRC)
s
gratefullycknowledged.
hiswork
orms
art
f he
rogramme
f he SRC
Genomicsetwork
at
Cesagen.
Notes
1
Press elease
y
deCODE
2009).
2.
Press elease
y
deCODE
2009).
3. See the
orporate
ebsiteor
ntelligize,
nc.
Available
t:
http://www.intelligize.com/.
4. Under he
erms
f
the
Act,
irms
re notunder
legalobligation
o revise
hese isks
once
hey
ave dentifiednd rticulatedhem. owever,tdoes eem hatn
practice any
companies
hoose o
update
hese
tatements
oreflecthe
hanged
ircumstancesftheir
organizations.
5. See for
xample ueppern.d.).
6.
To be
sure,
heres an
elementf
disclosurenvolved
ince he irms
ust
rovide
inancial
information,
ublishing
etails f
evenues,
osses
nd
rofits
ade
odate.
7. These
ilings
re
publicly
nd
reely
vailableobe
read nd
ownloadedrom
heUS SEC
websitend earchablender
ompany
ame
nd
ilingype.
he EC
websites: www.sec.
gov.
8. See deCODE
Genetics
orporate
ebsite.
vailablet:
www.decode.com.
9. NitroMedharmaceuticalsnc. ress elease,First eartailuretudynAfricanmericans
shows 3
percentmprovement
n
urvival.iDil
demonstrates
ignificant
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