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CLASS PROJECT REPORTSUSTAINABLE AIR QUALITY, EECE 449/549, SPRING 2010

WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY, ST. LOUIS, MO INSTRUCTORS: PROFESSOR RUDOLF B. HUSAR, ERIN M. ROBINSON

THE ENERGY ANALYSIS AND CARBON FOOTPRINT OF WASHINGTON UNIVERITY AND BEYOND

Project List

Global/Regional Trend Objectives• National causality trend analysis of carbon

emissions of specific world countries• Comparison of the causal commonalities within

and among different world regions and the United States

• Comprehension of global and regional patterns of carbon dioxide emissions over time for insight into the driving forces of climate change

• Quantified causality model of data from 60 world countries and US for future project use

Approach and Methodology

CO2 Emissions =Population x GDP/Person x Energy/GDP x

CO2/Energy

• Population: The total number of people living in a country at a certain point in time.

• GDP/Person: Total GDP in a country divided by its population. Indicates the national economic development and prosperity.

• Energy/GDP: Total kg oil consumed per unit GDP. Indicator of the energy intensity of a country’s economy.

• CO2/Energy: Metric tons of CO2 emitted per kg oil consumed. Measure of the carbon intensity and content of energy consumption.

Causality Factors for Saudi Arabia Increases in Population and

Energy/GDP Decrease in GDP/Person and

CO2/Energy The Population and

Energy/GDP both drive Carbon Emissions up while GDP/Person and CO2/Energy drive it down.

Increase in Population and GDP/Person

Decrease in Energy/GDP and CO2/Energy

Now the forces driving CO2 up are GDP/Person and Population while Energy/GDP and CO2/Energy drove it down.

Causality Factors for South Africa

Transition from population as the driving force to GDP as the driving force

CO2 emissions have decreased because of lowering of population and a lowering of energy per GDP.

Regional Causality: Europe Convergence to two points of CO2 emissions per capita Eastern European Countries: decreasing their emissions to get to these

points. Western European countries: remaining relatively the same in their

Carbon/Capita emissions.

Regional Causality: South America Principal Causality Factor:

GDP/Person: Economy is responsible for footprint.

GDP/Person: skyrocketing trend from 1960-2005. Shift in economic nature.

Energy/GDP: net decrease over 35 year time period.

CO2/Energy: relative stability,near-zero trend evolution changing fuel type is responsible.

Note the uncanny relativity between causal factor magnitudes in countries.

Slight convergence over time: Evolution from 14-fold to only 3-fold difference!

975% increase!

Regional Causality: Southeast Asia

1732% increase!

1663%Increase!

Regional Causality: United States

Overall US Emissions were driven up by GDP increases, moderated by decreases in Energy/GDP

Summary and Conclusions

• Regional causality frameworks and case studies of countries prove strong socioeconomic and historical dependence of causal factors• No such “master formula” for causality analysis• Intrinsic relationship with economic development• Significance of geographical placement

• Parallel of trends and driving factors in the US• Economic development mostly responsible,

dampened by lowered energy intensity

• Establishment of framework for sustainable future

References (Global)1. http://www.google.com/publicdata/overview?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_2. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ve.html3. http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp4. http://web.archive.org/web/20080226202420/http://www.jica.go.jp/english/global/pov/profiles/pdf/sau_

eng.pdf5. http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35639.htm6. http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/1980-02.pdf7. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/br.html8. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ar.html9. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France#Economy10. http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm#gsp11. http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/12. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Thailand13. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/LACEXT/HONDURASEXTN/0,,contentMDK:210

35522~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:295071,00.html14. http://www40.statcan.gc.ca/l01/cst01/econ40-eng.htm15. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/88-221-x/2008002/part-partie1-eng.htm16. http://capitawiki.wustl.edu/ME449-07/index.php/Image:All_State_Energy_BTU_EmissionR.xls17. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html18. http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/state_energyco2inv.html19. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/state/state_emissions.html20. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/carbon.html21. http://open.worldbank.org/countries/AFG/indicators/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT?

per_page=100&api_key=4kzbhfty3mz6v293vrq5uphw&date=1960:200522. http://datafedwiki.wustl.edu/index.php/2010-02-15:_World_Bank_Coutry_Data23. http://capitawiki.wustl.edu/EECE449/index.php/Global-

Regional_Trends_of_Carbon_Emissions24. http://capita.wustl.edu/me449%2D00/