president’s outreach october 25, 2010 dr. james r. ramsey president, university of louisville
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President’s Outreach
October 25, 2010
Dr. James R. RamseyPresident, University of Louisville
We do know wherePrestonsburg is!
Thanks for being here.
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Economists like pictures and graphsSome dots and a triangle…
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Heck, I’m an economist so let’s talk about
the economy.
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Sources: NBER, BEA, and BLS.* Lowest level during the current recession. The next two quarters (2009: III and IV) have been positive.
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Peak Decline in real GDPDec-07 (IV) -3.70%Mar-01 (I) 0.40%Jul-90 (III) -1.40%Jul-81 (III) -2.90%Jan-80 (I) -2.20%Nov-73 (IV) -3.20%Dec-69 ((IV) -0.20%Apr-60 (II) -1.10%Aug-57 (III) -3.70%Jul-53 (II) -2.60%Nov-48 (IV) -1.70%
We know that nationally times have been unprecedented
National Non-Farm Employment(in thousands)
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-
Dec-97
Aug-01
Apr-05
Dec-08
Aug-12
Apr-16
Dec-19
Aug-23
Apr-27
Dec-30
Aug-34
Apr-38
Dec-41
Aug-45
Apr-49
Dec-52
Aug-56
Apr-60
Dec-63
Aug-67
Apr-71
Dec-74
Aug-78
Apr-82
Dec-85
Aug-89
Apr-93
Dec-96
Aug-00
Apr-04
Dec-07
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
-131-54-95
• The economy has lost momentum – but should avoid a “double dip”– Accelerated growth first half of the year. Inventory build
up– Consumer is saving – long term a good thing– Business also cautious - cost containment – not adding
workers• Slow/very slow recovery
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National Economic Thoughts
Kentucky’s Budget Outlook
I always start with employment in the state:
People working = income - state income taxes
- sales tax
Sales/Income => 70% of state’s general fund
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Kentucky has not been immune to those impacts
Nonfarm employment in thousands
10Jan
-99Jul-9
9Jan
-00Jul-0
0Jan
-01Jul-0
1Jan
-02Jul-0
2Jan
-03Jul-0
3Jan
-04Jul-0
4Jan
-05Jul-0
5Jan
-06Jul-0
6Jan
-07Jul-0
7Jan
-08Jul-0
8Jan
-09Jul-0
9Jan
-10Jul-1
01750.0
1770.0
1790.0
1810.0
1830.0
1850.0
1870.0
1890.0
Jan '991769.4
Oct '001833.6
Jul '031777.6
Dec '071872.4
Aug '101768.6
Kentucky Economy:Manufacturing – Our Bread and Butter
(in thousands)
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Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
200.0
220.0
240.0
260.0
280.0
300.0
320.0
308.3
Aug '10212.5
Where will jobs of tomorrow come from?
• Healthcare/life sciences• Logistics/distribution• Advanced manufacturing• Energy research• Business services
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Things to note
• Economic transformation slow• Education all education more
important than ever
(We are in this together)
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Education Pays
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$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Per Capita Income in All 50 States v. Adults with Bachelors Degrees or Higher Data for 2007
Students or Inmates?
Other “Leaks”
• Medicaid/health issues• Public employee pension
– KTRS– KERS Defined benefit programs
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CPE/LEGISLATIVE RESEARCH COMMISSION RESPONSE TO DATA REQUEST SEPTEMBER 1, 2010
Category Rank Among KY Public Institutions
PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN THE 6-YEAR GRADUATION RATE 1
INCREASE IN THE # OF BACCALAUREATE DEGREES AWARDEDPercentage increase
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PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN ALL DOCTORAL DEGREES AWARDED 1
INCREASE IN THE # OF DOCTORAL DEGREES AWARDED- RESEARCH/SCHOLARSHIPPercentage increase
1
1
INCREASE IN THE AVERAGE ACT SCOREPercentage increase
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PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN FALL ENROLLMENT FTE 3
PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN FULL-TIME UNDERGRADUATE RESIDENT TUITION AND FEES (ANNUAL RATE) ** LAST PLACE IS GOOD AS THIS REPRESENTS THE LEAST % INCREASE IN TUITION….
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Challenges, but…To Close on a Good Note
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Thank you –
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