predictions - football league 120213
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
1/16
Brighton Blackburn
Experimental361.com
Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the right
41% 37%
Brighton are the Championships heaviest users
of the right flank, which pits them nicely against
the weaker left side of Blackburns defence
This is a tough one to call between two sides in similar form battling for supremacy on the
cusp of the play-offs. While Brighton look marginally more likely to prevail, a draw seems the
most probable result given the number these two sides have already served up this season.
Expected score: 1-1
9.4 12.3
With Brighton among the best sides in the
division at restricting chances and their visitors
among the worst, we could see a lot of traffic
towards the away goalmouth
Shots faced per game
Goals per match scored vs. conceded from outside the area
0.33 0.13The hosts excel at finding the net from range, but
that particular skill might not be of much use to
them against Blackburns alert rearguard
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
2/16
Hull Derby
Experimental361.com
Goals scored vs. conceded per game from headers
0.33 0.40
Hull offer one of the divisions greater aerial
threats and they should definitely be persisting
with high balls given their visitors susceptibility
I wrote Derbys prospects off in a similar match-up at the weekend but they took their few
chances well to earn a point. However Hull look better equipped to keep them at bay.
Expected score: 2-0
0.40 0.47
The Tigers are the Championships most
successful users of the right flank and find
themselves up against the defence with the
divisions weakest left side
Goals scored vs. conceded per game from open play down the right
Shots taken per game (home vs. away)
14.9 7.7
This match looks likely to be a Hull-dominated
affair no Championship side averages more
shots per match at home and Derby muster very
few of their own away
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
3/16
Middlesbrough Leeds
Experimental361.com
Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the left
16% 40%
The visitors have used the left wing to great effect
this season but the right side ofBoros defence
has been relatively tight, which could well blunt
their goal threat
Its been a horrible start to the year for Middlesbrough, who come into this match off the back
of 5 consecutive defeats, and while theyll have easier matches than this I still expect them to
get back to winning ways.
Expected score: 2-1
12.0 12.2
Leeds seem content with letting their opponents
do more of the attacking, and Middlesbrough look
happy to oblige
Shots taken vs. faced per game
Goals scored vs. conceded per game from outside the box
0.37 0.30Boro wont get many better chances to exploit
their long range accuracy than this, with Leeds
looking vulnerable from distance
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
4/16
Brentford Stevenage
Experimental361.com
Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the right
35% 45%
While Brentford dont present any glaring
weaknesses for Stevenage to exploit, the visitors
best chance may be to probe down the right
where theyve been relatively successful
With these two teams in stuttering form this is a tough one to call, but Brentford look set to
have more opportunities to take the points here.
Expected score: 2-1
12.6 11.9
In addition to soaking up a lot of shots,
Stevenage dont take very many either, meaning
that this match will probably comprise mostly
home traffic
Shots taken vs. faced per match
Goals scored vs. conceded in the first & last 15 mins of matches
49% 49%Half of Brentfords goals come either early or late,
which is coincidentally when Stevenage concede
roughly half of theirs
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
5/16
Bury Sheff Utd
Experimental361.com
Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the right
45% 35%
The Blades will carry the greater goal threat down
their right flank, with their hosts attack-minded left
side proving all too vulnerable to opponents
incursions
Despite a frustrating start to the year, the visitors are unbeaten in 5 away matches. Bury look
capable of giving them a good game, but I suspect not enough of one to outscore them over
90 minutes.
Expected score: 1-1
0.40 0.37
While both these sides are equally dangerous in
the air going forward, the visitors are noticeably
more vulnerable at the back
Headed goals scored vs. conceded per game
Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the left
50% 33%Bury have depended heavily on their left flank for
goals this season and this is a strategy which
could pay off in this instance
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
6/16
Crewe Bournemouth
Experimental361.com
Goals scored vs. conceded in the 15 mins before half time
27% 21%Crewe often strike late in the first half, which is
where Bournemouth have a tendency to concede
While Bournemouth should prove too strong for Crewe, both sides look capable of scoring
here and it should be a close match.
Expected score: 1-2
12.2 13.1
Despite being the away side, the Cherries look
the more likely to dominate proceedings, testing
Crewes strong defensive record at home
Shots faced vs. taken per match
Goals scored vs. conceded from open play through the centre
58% 27%Both these sides create the majority of their goals
in the middle of the pitch, but the visitors police
the centre much more effectively
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
7/16
Doncaster MK Dons
Experimental361.com
Points won from winning vs. losing positions
96% 11%
If Doncaster score first then precedent suggests
that MK Dons wont be able to recover no
League 1 side is better at closing wins out than
Rovers while their visitors have struggled to
recover from going behind
Neither of these sides are in great form and this is a tougher match than either would want
during such a sequence, but Doncasters blip looks to be much less serious and they should
be capable of a win.
Expected score: 2-1
7.6 11.4
Doncaster dont allow many shots at their goal on
their own turf, but MK Dons tend to take the
game to their opponents irrespective of venue, so
there could be a heated battle in midfield
Shots faced (home) vs. taken (away) per match
Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the left
30% 35%
Both sides tend to favour the centre when
attacking but Doncaster shouldnt overlook the left
wing, which aligns nicely with a weak point in their
visitors defence
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
8/16
Hartlepool Portsmouth
Experimental361.com
Goals conceded vs. scored from open play through the centre
37% 59%
The visitors tendency to channel their attacks
through the middle could also hinder them here,
with Hartlepool relatively solid in central positions
Portsmouth arguably wont have a better chance to end their 18 match winless run than
against the only side currently still beneath them in the table. The problem is that their hosts
are undergoing a revival and have only lost 1 in 5, so this could be the day they swap places.
Expected score: 1-0
13.4 5.4
The divisions most profligate home attack meets
its most porous away defence will either be
able to raise their game?
Shots per goal scored (home) vs. conceded (away)
Goals conceded vs. scored from set pieces
17% 42%Pompey have undeniably relied on set pieces for
goals this season but this is no guarantee of
success here
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
9/16
Scunthorpe Carlisle
Experimental361.com
Shots per goal scored vs. conceded
10.5 6.2
The home sides wasteful attack is up against one
of the divisions more porous defences itll be
interesting, but perhaps not pretty, to see which
gains the advantage
This doesnt appear to have the hallmarks of a classic encounter, but both sides are enjoying
their best run of form for a while and have a clear means of breaching the others defence. I
expect a score draw to be the most likely outcome.
Expected score: 1-1
0.42 0.40
The Iron have been heavily dependent on their
right wing for goals this season and theyd be
foolish not to move the ball in that direction given
their visitors shaky left side
Goals scored vs. conceded per match from open play down the right
Goals conceded vs. scored per match from set pieces
0.58 0.43
Dead ball situations havent favoured Scunthorpe
at either end this season, but Carlisle thrive on
them to the extent that their hosts should be very
nervous
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
10/16
Yeovil Preston
Experimental361.com
Shots faced per game (home vs. away)
7.7 8.6
The precedent is for these sides both to restrict
the others chances, which will emphasise the
need for sharpness in front of goal
Despite the Glovers impressive recent form which has lifted them to the periphery of the play-
off zone, playing to their strengths will give Preston a great chance of ending their current
malaise.
Expected score: 1-2
0.43 0.43
Prestons dead ball proficiency should be
worrying Yeovil given their vulnerability at set
pieces and in the air generally
Goals conceded vs. scored per game from set pieces
Goals scored vs. conceded in the 15 mins before half time
24% 23%Yeovils best chance of scoring is just before half
time, when theyve been particularly lively and
their visitors flat-footed so far this season
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
11/16
Morecambe Aldershot
Experimental361.com
Goals scored vs. conceded per match from open play through the centre
0.65 0.53
The home sides most promising means of
attacking is through the middle, where theyve
been carving out goals on a more regular basis
than their league position would suggest
This looks likely to be a low-scoring affair (cue goal avalanche) despite both sides having a
promising route to goal. Despite their lowly position, Aldershot have been relatively successful
on the road and should run Morecambe close.
Expected score: 1-1
42% 40%
The right flank offers the Shots an obvious
avenue of attack here if theyre prepared to take
it
Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the right
Shots faced vs. taken per game
11.9 7.8
Morecambes defence is used to taking a
battering, but their visitors are one of League 2s
most shot-shy teams will this respite enable the
hosts to push further forward?
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
12/16
Oxford Fleetwood
Experimental361.com
Proportion of time spent losing by 1 goal
13% 10%
These two sides spend very little time being a
goal down, although in Oxfords case this has
tended to be due to them conceding again,
suggesting they leave themselves overly exposed
when chasing a game
Oxford have struggled for goals recently and their recent 3-0 defeat in the reverse fixture
doesnt bode well for them here.
Expected score: 0-2
0.43 0.43
Neither of these sides has defended set pieces
particularly well this season, but the visitors are
significantly more effective at converting their
own
Goals conceded vs. scored per match from set pieces
Shots per goal scored vs. conceded
7.4 10.6Oxford have one of the more clinical attacks in
League 2 but theyll have their work cut out trying
to breach Fleetwoods resolute defence
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
13/16
Southend Cheltenham
Experimental361.com
Goals per game conceded vs. scored from set pieces
0.20 0.48
Cheltenham have relied on corners more than any
other Football League side this season, but
theyre up against one of League 2s better drilled
defences
With both sides in the thick of the promotion contest this could be a tense encounter, but with
Cheltenham in poor form this looks like the wrong time to be playing a side who look capable
of nullifying their game plan.
Expected score: 1-0
13.4 12.8
The numbers suggest that well see a dominant
home performance, as both these sides play
much more freely at home than away
Shots taken (home) vs. faced (away) per match
Shots conceded vs. scored from inside the 6 yard box
33% 40%If Cheltenham can work the ball in close to the
Shrimpers goal then they stand a good chance of
getting on the score sheet
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
14/16
Torquay Rotherham
Experimental361.com
Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the left
32% 38%
If the visitors continue to bias their attacks
towards the left then they stand a good chance of
breaching the Gulls rearguard
With Rene Howe back in the side and prodigal poacher Elliot Benyon also returning to the
club, the Gulls should be capable of getting on the score sheet. The problem is that their
visitors dont look likely to draw a blank either and have won 4 of their last 5 away matches.
Expected score: 1-2
12.9 13.1
The Gulls have League 2s busiest defence and
their visitors all-action approach looks set to
keep them even busier than usual
Shots faced vs. taken per game
Goals scored vs. conceded in 6 yard box
39% 23%Torquay have profited from getting the ball into the
6 yard box but are likely to find this a trickier task
against the Millers
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
15/16
Wycombe Bradford
Experimental361.com
Shots taken vs. faced per game
8.2 7.8
If Bradford have their mind on the job at hand
then Wycombe will still need to make the most of
their goalscoring chances, as theyre unlikely to
get many
The distraction of the cup seems to have robbed the Bantams of their edge lately, with their
form nosediving just as Wycombes is soaring. I suspect that theyll be good enough for a
point however.
Expected score: 1-1
38% 43%
Much depends on how hard their players will be
pushing with the League Cup Final approaching,
but if Bradford can get the ball in close then
Wycombe could struggle to keep a clean sheet
Goals conceded vs. scored inside the 6 yard box
Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the left
14% 52%Bradfords main route to goal is the left flank, but
Wycombe look more capable of choking their
supply line than most
E i l361
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7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213
16/16
York Gillingham
Experimental361.com
Shots taken per game home vs. away
9.1 10.4
York create fewer chances than most at home so
could find themselves on the back foot for long
spells against one of the divisions more
aggressive travellers
York managed a draw in the reverse fixture but are now winless in 6, the last 2 being heavy
defeats, which doesnt seem conducive to overcoming opponents with the best away record in
the division.
Expected score: 0-2
6.2 7.0
Gillinghams lofty position has been partly due to
ruthlessness in front of goal and theyre up
against one of the divisions more porous
defences here
Shots per goal conceded vs. scored
Matches in which failed to score vs. kept clean sheet
35% 40%
Gillinghams defence has been immense this
season and theyll be targeting a clean sheet
against a front line which has drawn a blank on
numerous occasions
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