ppt llamas itesm
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Dr. Armando Llamas
Center for Energy Studies
ITESM Campus Monterreyallamas@itesm.mx
Monterrey, NL april 2, 2004
Energy price competitiveness
mailto:allamas@itesm.mxmailto:allamas@itesm.mx -
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CFE and LFC deliver public service.
Pemex own generation
Self supply: Societies created with the only purpose to generate and sell electricity
between the society partners.
Independent Power Producer: Private power plant over 30 MW generating
electricity exclusively to CFE or for exportation.
References: www.cfe.gob.mx, www.lfc.gob.mx, Prospectiva sector elctrico 2003-2012
Gross Cap
MW %CFE 36,971 74.4
LFC 834.3 1.7
Pemex 1,822 3.7
IPP 6,756 13.6
Selfsupply and/or
Cogeneration3,316 6.7
Total (%) 49,699 100.0
Installed Capacity Mexico 2003
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Fuel oil
Natural gasCoal
Diessel
h = 39.7%
168,280 GWh
Reference: Tercer informe de labores - CFE
Technology '02 - '03Vapor (fuel oil or gas) 76,756
Dual 14,447
Coal 17,093
Combined cycle 24,679
Turbogas 6,421
Internal combustion 568
IPP 28,315Total Fossil 168,280
Hydro 19,389
Nuclear 9,340
Geothermal 5,728
Wind 6
Total non-fossil 34,463
Total 202,743Fossil generation/ Total 83.0%
Gross generation by technology (GWh)
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TECHNOLOGYGWh Cost
(million of pesos)
Unit cost($/kWh)
Vapor 78,803 48,762$ 0.62$
CC 22,217 13,820$ 0.62$
Turbo Gas 6,013 2,882$ 0.48$Diesel 555 811$ 1.46$
Coal 30,030 7,527$ 0.25$Geothermal 5,396 2,002$ 0.37$
WInd 7 7$ 1.00$Nuclear 9,747 7,934$ 0.81$
Hydro 24,277 12,441$ 0.51$Geothermal Projects division 881$
Civil engineering studies division 663$Generation subdivision 741$
177,045.00 98,471$ 0.56$
Independent Power Producers 22,657.00 7,452$ 0.33$
TOTAL 199,702.00 105,923$ 0.53$
Generation cost by technology 2002
Reference: www.informacionpublica.gob.mx
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Ref: www.cfe.gob.mx
High Voltage (HS) energy price in Northeast Mexico
(Dec 2003 dollars)
$0.00
$0.02
$0.04
$0.06
$0.08
$0.10
$0.12
$0.14
$0.16
$0.18
$0.20
Dic-01
Ene-
02
Feb-
02
Mar-
02
Abr-02
May-0
2
Jun-
02
Jul-02
Ago-
02
Sep-
02
Oct-
02
Nov-
02
Dic-02
Ene-
03
Feb-
03
Mar-
03
Abr-03
May-0
3
Jun-
03
Jul-03
Ago-
03
Sep-
03
Oct-
03
Nov-
03
Dic-03
Ene-
04
Feb-
04
USD/kWh
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
USD/kW
$/kW $/kWh peak $/kWh inter $/kWh base
4.07 $/kW
5.17 $/kW
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Ref: www.cfe.gob.mx
High voltage (HS) NE Nominal Pesos / kWh
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
Ene-00
Abr-00
Jul-00
Oct-00
Ene-01
Abr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Ene-02
Abr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Ene-03
Abr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Ene-04
pesos/kW
h
Load factor = 0.6
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Self supply
Partner 1 has purchased capacity propperly selected and reasonable wheeling cost
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Ago-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dic-03
Ene-04
Feb-04
$/kWh
Partner 1 CFEPartner 1 Self supplyPartner 2 CFEPartner 2 Self supply
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Disadvantages of self supply
No flexiblilty. Contracts are signed for 15 years and they are not easy tomodify.
Wheeling in medium voltage is extremely expensive. In some cases the
wheeling fix charge is several times more expensive than the one of
high voltage.
Non-written obligation to sign with CFEs union in case wheeling isrequired.
Natural gas
0
2
4
6
8
10
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
dollars/MBtu
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Natural gas consumption (Mft3/day)
Total = 4854 Mft3/day
M = 106
Ref: Prospectiva
del mercado de
gas natural 2003 -
2012.
Cuadro 9. p.42
Transport 2 Mft3/day
Oil indus try 1994 Mft3/day
Pemex Petrochemistry 295
Mft3/dayPrivate sector 965 Mft3/day
Public electric sector 959
Mft3/day
Private electric sector 546Mft3/day
Residential 71 Mft3/dayServices 22 Mft3/day
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Ref: North America The Energy Picture
T = 1012
Production/Demand of Natural gas (Tft3)
1980 19902000 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Canada Mxico USA Canada Mxico USA Canada Mxico USA Canada Mxico USA
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El Norte, Negocios, 23 marzo 2004
El Norte, Negocios, 26 marzo 2004
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Problems - Solutions
Energy prices are not competitive. Mexican
companies have no choice in the selection of the
energy supplier. Answer: A well regualtedcompetitive market (Lester Lave) with quick
response capability to changes and mistakes.
The growth of the electric sector (public and
private) is mainly based in combined cycle plants.Answer:Diversification (Oliver Probst).
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