postponement of first child – new reality for russia sergei v. zakharov institute of demography...
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POSTPONEMENT OF FIRST CHILD –NEW REALITY FOR RUSSIA
Sergei V. ZakharovInstitute of Demography
State University ‘Higher School of Economics’Research Leader of Russian GGS
szakharov@hse.ru
First Birth by Partnership Status in Russia
Distribution of Women by Maternal Status by age 30, birth cohorts, %
1930-1934 1950-1954 1970-1974
No birth 8 4 10
Have at least 1 child
92 96 90
100 100 100
First Births by Formal Marital Status of Mother having a child by age 30, birth cohorts, %
1930-1934 1950-1954 1970-1974
Marital 77 82 73
Non-marital 23 18 27
All 100 100 100
First Births by Partnership Status of Mothers having a child by age 30, birth cohorts, %
1930-1934 1950-1954 1970-1974
Before the 1st partnership 4 4 4
Within the 1st partnership 85 90 88
Within the 2nd+ partnerships 0 2 3
Out of partnership(not including before the 1st partnership)
11 4 5
All 100 100 100
First Births: Out of Any Partnership (left panel), and Out of Marriage (right panel) as per cent of Total First Births Given by age 25 and age 30, female birth cohorts
First births out of any partnership
02468
101214161820
- 192
9
1930
-193
4
1935
-193
9
1940
-194
4
1945
-194
9
1950
-195
4
1955
-195
9
1960
-196
4
1965
-196
9
1970
-197
4
1975
-197
9
Birth cohort
Per c
ent
by 25
by 30
Non-marital First Births
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
- 192
9
1930
-193
4
1935
-193
9
1940
-194
4
1945
-194
9
1950
-195
4
1955
-195
9
1960
-196
4
1965
-196
9
1970
-197
4
1975
-197
9
Birth cohort
Per c
ent
by 25
by 30
CHANGE IN PROTOGENETIC INTERVAL: AGE OF MOTHER, BIRTH COHORT
AND FIRST PARTNERSHIP COHORT
Mean Protogenetic Interval for Mothers Who Had the First Birth by Age 25 and 30, female birth cohorts (truncated for 0-60 months since beginning of the 1st partnership)
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1930-1934
1935-1939
1940-1944
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
1975-1979
Birth cohort
Mean
pro
tog
en
eti
c in
terv
al, m
on
ths
by 25
by 30
Cumulative Percentage of Partnerships which Gave a First Birth by the Time since the Start of the First Partnership, first partnership cohorts.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1949-1953
1954-1958
1959-1963
1964-1968
1969-1973
1974-1978
1979-1983
1984-1988
1989-1993
1994-1998
1st partnership cohorts
Per
cen
t
by 1st year
by 1.5th year
by 2nd year
by 3rd year
by 5th year
Cumulative Percentage of Partnerships which Gave a First Birth by the Time Relative to the Start of the First Partnership: 1954-1958, 1974-1978, 1994-1998 first partnership cohorts.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-6 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
Months since 1st partnership
Per
cen
t
1954-1958 1974-1978 1994-1998
Cumulative Percentage of Partnerships which Gave a First Birth by the 7th month since the Start of the First Partnership, first partnership cohorts.First birth by 7th month since partnership
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-1949 1949-1953
1954-1958
1959-1963
1964-1968
1969-1973
1974-1978
1979-1983
1984-1988
1989-1993
1994-1998
First partnership cohorts
Per
cen
t
Pre-Partnership Conceptions realized in the First Birth Before and Within 7 months since the Start of the First Partnership, female birth cohorts, by age
25 and 30. By age 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
-192
9
1930
-193
4
1935
-193
9
1940
-194
4
1945
-194
9
1950
-195
4
1955
-195
9
1960
-196
4
1965
-196
9
1970
-197
4
1975
-197
9
Birth cohorts
Per
cen
t 0-7mPAR1
beforePAR1
by age 30
0
5
10
15
20
25
-192
9
1930
-193
4
1935
-193
9
1940
-194
4
1945
-194
9
1950
-195
4
1955
-195
9
1960
-196
4
1965
-196
9
1970
-197
4
Birth cohort
Per
cen
t
0-7mPAR1
beforePAR1
Percentage of Conceptions realized in the First Birth by time of Conception Occurrence, partnership cohorts.
Direct marriages
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-1949 1949-1953
1954-1958
1959-1963
1964-1968
1969-1973
1974-1978
1979-1983
1984-1988
1989-1993
1994-1998
Partnership cohort
before Parthership Immediately at start With some delay
All partnerships
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-1949 1949-1953
1954-1958
1959-1963
1964-1968
1969-1973
1974-1978
1979-1983
1984-1988
1989-1993
1994-1998
Partnership cohort
before Parthership Immediately at start With some delay
First Births by Time Relative to the Start of the First Partnership, partnership cohorts (truncated
to 5 years since start of the 1st PAR) 1954-58 1964-68 1974-78 1984-88 1994-98
Before partnership
4 5 4 6 7
0-7 months
7 11 15 16 19
8-12 months
42 34 36 36 19
13-36 months
39 43 38 38 43
37-59 months
8 7 7 4 12
Total 100 100 100 100 100
PROTOGENETIC INTERVAL BY TYPE OF SETTLEMENT
Percentage of Women Who Have First Births by age 30, and within 8-12 months since the Start of the First Partnership, birth cohorts (first births within 5 years of partnership=100)
Within 8-12 months of the 1st Partnership, By age 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
Birth cohort
Per
cen
t
Moscow+SPb
Oblast Centers
Other cities
PGT+villages
Percentage of Women Who Have First Births by age 30, and within 13-59 months since the Start of the First Partnership, birth cohorts (first births within 5 years of partnership=100)
Within 13-59 months of the 1st Partnership, By age 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
Birth cohort
Per
cen
t
Moscow+SPb
Oblast Centers
Other cities
PGT+villages
Percentage of Women Who Have First Births by age 25, and within 0-7 months since the Start of the First Partnership, birth cohorts (first births within 5 years of partnership=100)
Within 0-7 months of the 1st Partnership, By age 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
1975-1979
Birth cohort
Per
cen
t
Moscow+SPb
Oblast Centers
Other cities
PGT+villages
PROTOGENETIC INTERVAL BY EDUCATIONAL LEVEL
Percentage of Women Who Have the First Birth by Age 25 by the Time Relative to the Start of the First Partnership: Low Education (left panel), and High Education (right panel), birth cohorts (total First Births by age 25 = 100) 1st birth by 25, educ=low
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
1975-1979
%
before PAR1
0-7m PAR1
8-12m PAR1
13-59m PAR1
1st birth by 25, educ=high
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
1975-1979
%
before PAR1
0-7m PAR1
8-12m PAR1
13-59m PAR1
Percentage of Women Who Have the First Birth by Age 30, and by the Time Relative to the Start of the First Partnership: Low Education (left panel), and High Education (right panel), birth cohorts (total First Births by age 30 = 100)1st birth by 30, educ=low
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
%
before PAR1
0-7m PAR1
8-12m PAR1
13-59m PAR1
1st birth by 30, educ=high
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
%
before PAR1
0-7m PAR1
8-12m PAR1
13-59m PAR1
CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION (1) In Russia, the likelihood of first birth continues to be
high. Almost 90% of first births occur in the first union. The share of first births that occur out of any
partnership (to single mothers) was for a long time decreasing, while it has somewhat risen most recently.
A fast growth of non-marital fertility can be mostly attributed to the fact that an increasing number of partners decide not to register their union officially.
CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION (2) After a long period of downward tendency, the
average protogenetic interval shows a strong upward trend.
The growth of the average protogenetic interval could have been even greater provided that the number of births occurring during the first 6 months since the beginning of the partnership had not continued growing (i.e. births as outcomes of pregnancies that had taken place before partners began to live together).
CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION (3) Delay of first births is occurring more
intensively in the vanguard social strata. In Russia, the current situation is dual:
on the one hand, pregnancy, increasingly frequently, leads partners to start living together;
on the other hand, partners living together tend to increase control over fertility during the first years of their union.
CONLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION (4) The key conclusion: beginning a
partnership, and getting married in particular, starts a procreation cycle increasingly less frequently.
Russia apparently remains a heterogeneous population as regards the usage of modern methods of contraception and family planning strategies in general.
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