population census 2016 in pakistan: a critical analysis

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CURRENT ISSUE PRESENTATION

POPULATION CENSUS 2016: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS

BY:

ABDUL QADEER ABBASI (IRS)

SPONSOR ADS:MR. AHMED IQBAL SHAHThursday, 10th September, 2015

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NFC=National Finance Commission KP=Khyber Pakhtunkhwa M=Million FATA=Federally Administered Tribal Area CCI=Counsel of Common Interest PM=Prime Minister AD=Anno Domini Indo-Pak=India-Pakistan USA=United States of America COs=Census Organizations CNIC=Computerized National Identity Card AC=Assistant Commissioner SDPO=Sub-Divisional Police Officer PCO=Population Census Organization FBS=Federal Bureau of Statics Cantt=Cantonment

ACRONYMS

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PRIMARY SOURCESMr. Iqbal Ahmed Bablani Provincial Census CommissionerMr. Farooque Ahmed BalochJoint Census Commissioner (Incharge)

Meeting on 04-09-2015 in Regional Office of Federal Bureau of Statics, Karachi

SECONDARY SOURCESNewspapersWebsites of FBS & different Government organizationsResearch papers available on internet

Pictures of Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner, FBS, Karachi office and Abdul Qadeer Abbasi the participant of 20th MCMC, NIM,

Karachi

METHODOLOGY

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Currency of the Issue Introduction/ Historical

BackgroundAnalysis Issues for Policy MakersThe Way Forward

Recommendations Implementation

Measures

SEQUENCE OF PRESENTAION

*http://mediamention.info/2013/12/**http://www.thenewstribe.com/2015/04/30/pakistan-world-sixth-most-populous-country-will-conduct-census-in-2016/

accessed on 27-08-2015 6

CURRENCY OF THE ISSUE

1998 Census was held after 17 years Opposition Leader demanded fresh Census

for proper allocation of resources* Delay in census is causing anger in smaller

provinces2016 Census is to be held after 18 years**

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Bigger the Population, Bigger the Share

NFC AwardSeat Share in

ParliamentLocal Bodies PollsTarget SubsidiesQuota in jobs

CENSUS AT NATIONAL LEVEL

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Bigger the Population, Bigger the Share

Punjabi & Siraiki in Punjab

Sindhi & Urdu Speaking in Sindh

Baloch & Pashtun in Balochistan

Pashtun & Non-Pashtun in KP

CENSUS AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL

YEAR POPULATTION (M)1951* 33.7401961 42.8801972 65.3091981 84.2531998 132.3522011** 192.2882030*** 244.0002050 300.0002100 364.000

*http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-province-region-1951**http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-13514-Population-shoots-up-by-47-percent-since-1998***http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/07/31/national/pakistans-population-to-exceed-300-million-by-2050-un-report/

Accessed on 27-08-2015

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POPULATION OF PAKISTAN

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UNIT POPULATION 1998

CENSUS (M)

%

PUNJAB 73.621 55.6SINDH 30.439 23.0KP 17.743 13.4BALOCHISTAN

6.5655.0

FATA 3.176 2.4ISLAMABAD 0.805 0.6

56%

23%

13%

5% 2%1%

PUNJAB SINDH KP BALOCHISTAN FATA ISLAMABAD

http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/population-province-region-1951 Accessed on 27-08-2015

COMPARISON OF PROVINCIAL POPULATION 1998

UNIT POPULATION 2011

DATA (M)

%

PUNJAB 91.379 47.5SINDH 55.245 28.7KP 26.896 14.0BALOCHISTAN 13.162 6.8FATA 4.452 2.3ISLAMABAD 1.151 0.6

48%

29%

14%

7% 2%1%

PUNJAB SINDH KP BALOCHISTAN FATA ISLAMABAD

http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-13514-Population-shoots-up-by-47-percent-since-1998

Accessed on 27-08-201511

COMPARISON OF PROVINCIAL POPULATION 2011

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CCI MEETING & HOLDING OF CENSUS

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http://www.brecorder.com/top-news/108/240191-federal-govt-decides-to-conduct-population-census-in-march-2016.html

accessed on 27-08-2015

PM approved in CCI meeting on 18th March, 2015 holding of Population Census in March-2016 with assistance of Armed Forces

Approval of Budget for Population and Housing Census at Rs.14.5 (Billion) to be shared by Provinces

Completion of all activities including district wise data/results by December, 2015

Setting up a National Census Apex CommitteeTechnical Committees on various subjects

including experts

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“No funds have been released thus far” Asif Bajwa, Chief Statistician

Government has lost interest in its own announcement made in March, 2015

Census waste of resources, NADRA data be used http://www.dawn.com/news/1204103

accessed on 02-09-2015

Population census scrapped once again?

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CENSUS: INTRODUCTION, HISTORY , TYPES & METHODS

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CENSUS

http://www.qsa.gov.qa/QatarCensus/Census_Def.aspx accessed on 05-09-2015

CENSUSIntroduction

COUNTING

Demographic

Socio-economic

The number of persons in any community can be determined by Counting

Census is a Characteristic of population

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First complete census on ten yearly basis was taken in SWEDEN in 1749 AD*

In Indo-Pak the 1st Census was held between 1867-1872, and was repeated in 1881**

Thereafter, Census every 10th year

*h ttp://www.stat.fi/tup/vl2010/art_2011-03-18_001_en.html accessed on 05-09-2015**http://www.cicred.org/Eng/Publications/pdf/c-c38.pdf accessed on 05-09-2015

HISTORY OF CENSUS

Census may either be “de facto” or

“de jure”

http://www.qsa.gov.qa/QatarCensus/Census_Def.aspx accessed on 05-09-2015

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TYPES OF CENSUS

DE FACTO

DE JURE

A person is counted at the place he or she is found at the time of counting

A person is counted at the place of his/her normal residence

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Census are taken by :

1) Enumeration2) Questionnaire 3) Combined of both methods

Enumeration Method is used in Pakistan and USA

Questionnaire Method is used in England

METHODS OF CENSUS

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CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS & COs

21The Constitution of Islamic Republic of Pakistan, published by National Assembly of Pakistan

accessed on 05-09-2015

Census meets Legal requirements for:

Providing basis for political representation in the National and Provincial Assemblies (Article 51 (5) of Constitution)

Distribution of funds to the federating units by National Finance Commission (Article 160(2) of Constitution)

Determining quota for recruitment to all civil posts in the Federal Government

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CENSUS ORGANIZATIONS

CENSUS ORGANIZATION 1950

CENSUS & REGISTRATION ORGANIZATION 1976

POPULATION CENSUS ORGANIZATION 1978

FEDERAL BUREAU OF STATICS 2012

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DELIMITATION OF CENSUS AREAS

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For complete coverage and effective field supervision, the country has been delimited on a four-tier system, into;

Census Districts (Tehsils/ Towns and Cantts.)

Census Charges (Qanun go/ part of Town/Cantt.)

Census Circle (Patwar Circle/part of Town /Cantt.)

Census Blocks (Village, part of Village/Town) Census Block roughly comprises of 200-250 houses One Block is assigned to one Enumerator

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ISSUES FOR POLICY MAKERS:TRANSPARENCY

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Updated digitized maps of Census areas for each enumerator and supervisor

CNIC of head or any member of household may be recorded for verification

Vigilance Teams comprising AC, SDPO & Technical Officer at Census District level

Control Rooms at Census District level to redress public complaints about enumeration

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Collection of filled-in questionnaires in sealed envelopes

Census Evaluation Survey by an independent agency

Administrative Boundaries be frozen by Provincial Governments

Ban on transfers and postings of staff engaged in Census operation

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Effective & Committed Provincial Census Commissioners (PCC) for coordination between Provincial Governments & Population Census Organization

Publicity Campaign to create the awareness among masses through Print & Electronic Media

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*Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner, in meeting on 04-09-2015

Census operation requires a field force of 182,000* as Enumerators and Supervisors

Services of School Teachers and employees of Local Government Departments

Participation of maximum females in the Census operation

They may be paid one month salary as remuneration

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Mr. Farooque Ahmed Baloch, Joint Census Commissioner (Incharge) Meeting on 04-09-2015

Photograph of Enumerator / Supervisor on serially numbered Identity Card

Appointment of Census Field Staff be ensured well before the start of operation

Training may be imparted by Senior Officers of FBS

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Law and order situation in certain parts of the country

Access of enumeration and supervisory staff in troubled areas

Security of census documents in sensitive areas

Distortion of population figures due to linguistic and ethnic feelings in certain areas

Political linkage of census data in terms of representations in assemblies and distribution of financial resources among provinces has made census a sensitive issue

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RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION

Freezing Representation of seats in Parliament (Indian Model)

The CCI, Parliament & Federal Government

Apportionment of NFC Award on multi-factors i.e. population, need, backwardness, revenue generation and area basis

The CCI, Parliament & Federal Government

Permanent & Autonomous Census Organization

The Federal Government

THE WAY FORWARD

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RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATIONCensus Organization should be:

Headed by a permanent professional population scholar and re searcher having fixed tenure

The Federal Government

Data Evaluation Function should be built in the budget

The Federal Government

THE WAY FORWARD

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RECOMMENDATION IMPLEMENTATION

The policy decisions at the Federal, Provincial and Local level should be taken on the basis of data collected, compiled, tabulated resulting in logical inferences rather than on personal whims and petty political & ethnic interests

The Federal Government, Provincial Governments & Local Governments

THE WAY FORWARD

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