political ads2012

Political adsThe 2012 presidential race & beyond

2012 political ads● FCC required top TV stations in top markets

to file ad buys online● Record-setting money raised by presidential

campaigns● Outside groups also spent heavily● CU News Corps tracked Denver market ad

spending beginning Aug. 2

Data collection & analysis, stories, tumblr

National volume record for presidential race

Wesleyan Media Project

Colorado one of hottest ad markets in nation

Wesleyan Media Project

Most ad money spent in a few states● Colorado● Florida● Nevada● Ohio● Iowa● Denver was No. 2 media market, based on

Wesleyan analysis at the end of October

Denver ads (from Aug. 2 on)

Big differences - candidates● Obama campaign outspent Romney

campaign $10.3M to $6.1M● Nationwide, Obama spent $266M vs.

Romney's $105M ● Obama got started in spring 2012● Obama bought ad time early, through Nov. 6● Romney started late because of primaries● Romney bought ad time week-by-week

Big differences - outside spending● Super PACS supporting Romney outspent

those supporting Obama $7.7M to $3.9M● Five super PACS supported Romney -

American Crossroads, Restore Our Future, Crossroads GPS, Americans for Prosperity, Americans for Job Security

● Three groups supported Obama - Piorities USA, League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood

Super PACS nationally● Those five GOP groups spent $176.7M

through the end of October● The three Dem groups spent $36.5M● The GOP Super PACS kept Romney

competitive, most analysts would say

Congressional races● Total of $11.8 million at four Denver stations

from Aug. 2 on● $6.7M for three Democratic candidates (one

won)● $5.1M for three GOP candidates (two won)

Did ads make a difference?● Some academics question the effectiveness● Ads targeted undecided voters - about 10

percent - in fewer than a dozen states● "The effects of the ads are always quite

small in a presidential race" one told us● Another wrote that early Obama ads "did

little apparent damage" to Romney

What happened here?

Nate Silver & others say Colorado pushed Obama over

What mattered?● Voter registration efforts

● Micro-targeting efforts online, via email

● Get-out-the-vote campaigns

● Romney campaign's digital GOTV efforts faltered on Election Day

- Mary Chapin Carpenter

"The stars might lie, but the numbers never do."

In the end...● Advertising was a great financial boost for

Colorado television stations● Polls in the state didn't show a lot of

variation; Obama always had a narrow lead● Get-out-the-vote probably more effective use

of money than ads

But...● The ads go on...

○ Mayors Against Illegal Guns○ Americans for a Strong Defense○ American Petroleum Institute

● Expect more issue ads in 2013 as OFA becomes a nonprofit

● 2014 Senate and House races will be huge in Colorado, with more outside money

Questions?

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