phase iii preferred scenario draft 2040 growth framework overview

Phase III Preferred Scenario and Draft 2040 Regional Growth Framework

Overview

Board of DirectorsSeptember 1, 2011

Martin Kim, Director of Regional Planning

Urbanization Trends – 1970 to 2000

+19% Population Growth in Urban Area

(606,549 in 1970 to 723,955 in 2000)

+76% Urban Area Expansion (185.9 sq miles in 1970 to 327.6 sq miles in 2000)

-32% Population Density Decline in Urban Area

(3,263 pop/sq mi in 1970 to 2,209 pop/sq mi in 2000)

Implications and Concerns

“Thinner” Tax Base to provide Services for Larger Areas

Effects on the Quality of Life and Economic Prosperity in Our Region

Future Land Development NeedsLocal-based vs. Region-based

0

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

ProjectedPopulation Growth

ProjectedEmployment Growth

Land Needed toAccommodate

Projected Populationand Employment

Growth

Total Increase inDeveloped Land asProjected in LocalLand Use Plans

Dayton+

Xenia+

Troy+

Springboro+

etc.

Planning Process and Scope

We are in Phase III

Vision for the Miami Valley Region:Concentrated Development

Preferred Scenario

Development

Concentrated Development Scenario:Development and Assessment

Spatial and Performance Evaluation

Land Holding Capacity Assessment:

The level of land capacity (theoretical) to accommodate land use activities,

expressed in dwelling units, households, or number of employees

Land Development Suitability Assessment:

Locations within the planning area that are best suited to accommodate land

development

Change in Population

Population in the Region is expected to grow by 3%, from 834,717 in 2000 to 859,063 in 2040.

Change in Jobs

The number of jobs in the Region is expected to grow by 5%, from 436,929 in 2000 to 458,384 in 2040.

Change in Population and Jobs

The increase in population and jobs along with an increase of the density and diversity of land uses will occur in the Region’s more urban areas, in existing communities.

Concentrated Development: Principles

Development will be concentrated around regional assets and in areas that already have the infrastructure to support it.

The rehabilitation and/or repurposing of vacant and underused structures would be encouraged, along with a more broad commitment to infill development – whether it makes use of existing structures or vacant lots.

The preservation of agriculture land and other open space would be a priority as well as encouraging more connection and cooperation between the Region’s communities.

D-Zone 2

D-Zone 1 Areas with the least dense development and the least amount of development diversity

Areas with a moderate density level and small-to-moderate levels of development density

D-Zone 3 Areas that may be either less dense with a higher diversity or more dense with a lower development diversity

D-Zone 4Areas with higher density levels and higher levels of development diversity

D-Zone 5Areas that are both dense and diverse, containing least two types of development

Concentrated Development: Typologies

Concentrated Development

D-Zone 2

D-Zone 1

D-Zone 3

D-Zone 4

D-Zone 5

A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework for the Miami

Valley Region

The 2040 Regional Growth Framework, currently in a draft version, is a long-term strategic land development framework for bringing the Concentrated Development

vision to reality.

This Framework is more than a map. It will include policy recommendations as

implementation strategies.

2040 Regional Growth Framework: Development

Not to assign traditional land use designations such as residential, commercial, or industrial areas.

Define areas according to what is “appropriate” (Phase I Land Development Suitability Assessment and Land Use Demand Assessment) and/or “preferred” (Phase II Future Land Use Scenarios) for future development, redevelopment, and preservation.

Incorporates 6 dimensions of land classification.

A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework

INFILL GROWTH SECTOR Currently developed areas including areas that are partially developed.

A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework

A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework

INTENDED GROWTH SECTOR Areas that are currently undeveloped but suitable and preferable for future development.

A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework

CONTROLLED GROWTH SECTOR Areas that are not currently developed and are not considered to be preferable locations but are suitable and already zoned for development.

A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework

LIMITED GROWTH SECTOR Areas that are not currently developed and have limitations for future development but are zoned for development.

A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework

RESERVED OPEN SECTOR Open spaces that are suited for future development. This area could be developed, however, beyond the year 2040.

PRESERVED OPEN SECTOR Open spaces under environmental protection.

A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework: Implementation Policy Priorities

Encourage development around the Region’s assets

Focus on the maintenance of existing infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, etc.)

Foster a sense of connection and cooperation between the Region’s communities

Revive the Region’s older communities

Revive the Region’s core city – the City of Dayton

Current Efforts and Next Steps

Identify, develop, and evaluate a preferred scenario (completed in July 2011)

Develop 2040 Regional Growth Framework (Draft version developed)

Compile, evaluate and make recommendation on 2040 Regional Growth Framework implementation policies(currently underway)

Consensus Building

Public open houses (Aug 2011)

Presentations and input solicitations (Aug – Nov 2011)

Endorsement and formal review from local jurisdictions (Aug – Nov 2011)

Approval from MVRPC Board of Directors (Dec 2011)