paul wormeli executive director emeritus ijis institute · paul wormeli executive director emeritus...

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Paul Wormeli � Executive Director Emeritus � IJIS Institute

The Great Recession

Paradigm ShiftsParadigm Shifts

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Technology Innovations

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is at the heart of everything we need to do to reduce crime and improve the quality of justice in America

The worst conclusion

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We have the technology to do it

Realize the Power of InformationRealize the Power of Information

The IJIS Institute The IJIS Institute

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Road to The New Normal

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The New Normal

It will soon shake your windows and rattle your walls,

For the times they are a-changin’

-----Bob Dylan

The Law of Accelerating ReturnsThe Law of Accelerating Returns

An analysis of the history of

technology shows that

technological change is

exponential, contrary to the

common-sense "intuitive

linear" view. linear" view.

9

Dr. Ray Kurzweil

www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/KurzweilPowerPoint/

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS)

DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH) (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH)

EVERY YEAREVERY YEAREVERY YEAREVERY YEAR

10

VP2600/10SX-3/44

CM-5/1024Num. Wind Tun.

Num. Wind Tun. SR2201/1024

CP-PACS/2048ASCI Red

ASCI RedASCI White

ASCI White

Earth SimulatorSX-8

Blue Gene /L

Blue Gene /L

Blue Gene /LBlue Gene /L

Roadrunner

Pleiades,Blue Waters,

or RIKEN (announced)

First Exaflop

Supercomputer

(forecast)

1.E+09

1.E+10

1.E+11

1.E+12

1.E+13

1.E+14

1.E+15

1.E+16

1.E+17

1.E+18

1.E+19

1.E+20

1.E+21

1.E+22F

lop

s(F

loa

tin

g-p

oin

t O

pe

rati

on

s p

er

Se

con

d)

Year

Growth in Supercomputer PowerLogarithmic Plot

40048008

8080

8086

286386

486 DXPentium

Pentium II

Pentium IIIPentium 4

Itanium 2 Itanium 2 (2003)

Itanium 2 (2004) Xeon MP

Dual-Core Itanium 2

Itanium 'Tukwila'

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Tra

nsi

sto

rs p

er

chip

Year

Transistors Per Chip (Intel processors)Logarithmic Plot

40048008

8080 8086286

386

486

PentiumPentium II

Pentium III

Pentium 4 (1700)

Pentium 4 (3066)Pentium D 830

Core 2 Extreme

QX6700C2E QX9770

Year

Processor Performance (MIPS)

`MIP

S

DR

AM

Bit

s/D

olla

r

Year

Dynamic RAM Memory Bits per Dollar

`

Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot

11

100

1,000O

utp

ut

pe

r H

ou

r

Manufacturing Output Per HourLogarithmic Plot

10

100

Ou

tpu

t p

er

Ho

ur

Year

12

6

8

10%

of

GD

P

IT's Share of the Economy

`

Logarithmic Plot

0

2

4

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

% o

f G

DP

Year

`

13

The Law of Accelerating Returns

So we won’t experience

100 years of progress in

the 21st century

– it will be more like

20,000 years of progress

(at today’s rate).(at today’s rate).

14

The historical perspective

• 1971—First interstate exchange of criminal history information

• 1975—Microsoft founded

• 1981—IBM PC Released

Realize the Power of InformationRealize the Power of Information

• 1981—IBM PC Released

• 1991—World Wide Web invented

• 1999—XML makes the grade

• ????—Al Gore invents the internet

• 2007—NIEM 2.0 released

The Last Ten Years

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2000

46% of adults use internet

5% with broadband at home

50% own a cell phone

The internet is the change agent Then and now

2010

79% of adults use internet

64% have broadband at home

82% own a cell phone

2000

46% of adults use internet

5% with broadband at home

50% own a cell phone

The internet is the change agent Then and now

Future of the internet July 9, 2010 17

50% own a cell phone

0% connect wirelessly

<10% use “cloud”

0% = tech social networkers

THEN: slow, stationary connections built around my

computer

82% own a cell phone

59% connect wirelessly

>two-thirds use “cloud”

48% = tech social networkers

NOW: faster, mobile connections built around outside

servers and storage

50% own a cell phone

0% connect wirelessly

<10% use “cloud”

0% = tech social networkers

THEN: slow, stationary connections built around my

computer

A Decade of the Transformation of IT

Justice information technology

From silos to enterprise systems

Intelligence information sharing

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Intelligence information sharing

From isolationism to collaboration

Transformation roadmap from the Global Information Sharing Advisory Committee (GAC)

The Transformation of Justice Information Technology

Enterprise services

Information ExchangesStovepipe systems

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servicessystems

NIEM Privacy JRA GFIPM

The Transformation of Intelligence Information Sharing

CollaborationFusionIsolationism

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Fusion

Fusion Center Guidelines

Baseline Capabilities

CI Sharing Plan

Building blocks of the new normal

• Changing management paradigms

• Advances in technology

• Harnessing collectiveintelligence

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intelligence

• Collaboration for progress

• Technologies of consciousness

• The search for return on investment

Management paradigm shifts

Community Based Policing

Data Driven Policing

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Data Driven Policing

Predictive Policing

MajorChangesAreComing! HERE!!

TheIntuitively

TheIntuitivelyDiscovering:

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IntuitivelyObviousIntuitivelyObvious

KNOWLEDGE

Discovering:

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Disruptive Technology?

CollectiveIntelligence

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Collective Intelligence

Experts

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Data

Information

Knowledge

Hardware & Software

Technologies of consciousness

• Conflict resolution

• Vision and strategy

• Institutional change

• Virtual reality

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• Virtual reality

• Spirituality

• Neurotech

• Machine-Brain Interface

Nicholas Skytland, a NASA rocket scientist and digital native:

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Realize the Power of InformationRealize the Power of Information

Realize the Power of InformationRealize the Power of Information

Realize the Power of InformationRealize the Power of Information

CRIME

A higher purpose

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CRIME

Making An Impact

• Become part of the justice enterprise

• Focus on outcomes, such as

– Offender re-entry (to reduce recidivism)

– Reducing Gang violence

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– Reducing Gang violence

– Intervening in global crime patterns

– Preventing crimes including terrorist acts

• Radical action—data driven justice

One Nation,Indivisible

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IndivisibleOne World, working in concert

Paul Wormeli

Executive Director Emeritus

IJIS Institute

Realize the Power of InformationRealize the Power of Information

paul.wormeli@ijis.org

www.ijis.org