part 3: american political practice. voting and elections july 9 th, 2003

PART 3: PART 3: American Political PracticeAmerican Political Practice

VOTING and ELECTIONSVOTING and ELECTIONS

July 9July 9thth, 2003, 2003

Voting and ElectionsVoting and Elections

• the electoral system and practice of the electoral system and practice of elections in the United States is geared elections in the United States is geared towards maximizing opportunities for towards maximizing opportunities for mass public participationmass public participation– this is the this is the idealideal

– when this is not achieved in practice, it is when this is not achieved in practice, it is perceived to be a problemperceived to be a problem

Voting and ElectionsVoting and Elections

• Campaigns and ElectionsCampaigns and Elections– primariesprimaries

– general electionsgeneral elections

• Campaign financingCampaign financing

• public opinion pollingpublic opinion polling

• Voting TurnoutVoting Turnout

• Initiatives/ReferendumsInitiatives/Referendums

Primary ElectionsPrimary Elections

• types of primariestypes of primaries– primary elections vs. primary caucusesprimary elections vs. primary caucuses– primary electionsprimary elections

– closed primaryclosed primary

– open primaryopen primary

– blanket primaryblanket primary

Primary ElectionsPrimary Elections

• Presidential primariesPresidential primaries– delegate selectiondelegate selection

• proportional vs. winner-take-allproportional vs. winner-take-all

– primary scheduleprimary schedule– bellwether statesbellwether states

• e.g. New Hampshiree.g. New Hampshire

General ElectionsGeneral Elections

• Presidential ElectionsPresidential Elections– the electoral collegethe electoral college

• winner take all on a state by state basiswinner take all on a state by state basis• e.g. whoever gets the most votes in Florida gets e.g. whoever gets the most votes in Florida gets allall of Florida’s 25 electoral college votes of Florida’s 25 electoral college votes

• Congressional ElectionsCongressional Elections– winner take allwinner take all

– importance for election strategiesimportance for election strategies

Primary and General ElectionsPrimary and General Elections

• different electoral strategiesdifferent electoral strategies• primaries primaries

– no partisan guideno partisan guide• more volatilemore volatile• money, advertising, name recognition more importantmoney, advertising, name recognition more important

– run to the partyrun to the party• general electionsgeneral elections

– run to the centrerun to the centre• guaranteed vote of party idenitifiersguaranteed vote of party idenitifiers• must compete for votes of independents, weak must compete for votes of independents, weak

identifiersidentifiers

Elections – Influences...Elections – Influences...

• incumbencyincumbency– safe seatssafe seats

– contested seats – key racescontested seats – key races

– importance of redistrictingimportance of redistricting

• Presidential “coat-tail” effectPresidential “coat-tail” effect– popularity of presidentpopularity of president

Presidential & Mid-Term ElectionsPresidential & Mid-Term ElectionsChange in House of Representative SeatsChange in House of Representative Seats

-60-50-40-30-20-10

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Pres. Mid-Term

Presidential & Mid-Term ElectionsPresidential & Mid-Term ElectionsChange in Senate SeatsChange in Senate Seats

-10

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Elections – Influences...Elections – Influences...

• incumbencyincumbency

• Presidential “coat-tail” effectPresidential “coat-tail” effect

• the economythe economy

Campaign FinancingCampaign Financing

• $1 billion dollars in TV ads -- 2002$1 billion dollars in TV ads -- 2002• basic rulesbasic rules

– FECFEC– public funding – matching fundspublic funding – matching funds– spending limitsspending limits– contribution limitscontribution limits– disclosure requirementsdisclosure requirements

• the problem of “soft money”the problem of “soft money”– contributions to parties (as opposed to candidates)contributions to parties (as opposed to candidates)

Campaign FinancingCampaign Financing

• the rules collapse...the rules collapse...– spending limits enforced by federal spending limits enforced by federal

matching fundingmatching funding

– the problem of “soft money”the problem of “soft money”• contributions to parties (as opposed to contributions to parties (as opposed to

candidates)candidates)

Campaign FinancingCampaign Financing

• Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, 2002Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, 2002– bans the use of soft money by federal partiesbans the use of soft money by federal parties

• not state and local partiesnot state and local parties

– does not alter the ability of independent does not alter the ability of independent groups to run issue campaignsgroups to run issue campaigns• e.g. numerous loopholes still existe.g. numerous loopholes still exist

Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Polls

• centrality of pollingcentrality of polling

• misuse of pollsmisuse of polls– nation-wide pollsnation-wide polls

– misreading pollsmisreading polls

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

• levels of voter turnoutlevels of voter turnout

• explaining voter turnoutexplaining voter turnout– low voter turnoutlow voter turnout

– declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

• registration proceduresregistration procedures• requires registrationrequires registration• motor voter lawsmotor voter laws• why is voter registration even an issue?why is voter registration even an issue?

• low voter turnoutlow voter turnout• voter fatiguevoter fatigue• voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

• high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation– range of elective officesrange of elective offices

Elections in MassachusettsElections in Massachusetts

• PresidentPresident• US House of US House of

RepresentativesRepresentatives• US SenateUS Senate• state governorstate governor• state representativestate representative• state senatestate senate• state attorney generalstate attorney general• state auditorstate auditor

• state treasurerstate treasurer• secretary of statesecretary of state• county commissionercounty commissioner• sheriffsheriff• clerks of courtsclerks of courts• mayormayor• city councillorscity councillors• school committee school committee

membersmembers

Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout

• high opportunities for mass participationhigh opportunities for mass participation– range of elective officesrange of elective offices– primary electionsprimary elections– referendums and initiativesreferendums and initiatives

• actual participationactual participation– primaries (5%-20%)primaries (5%-20%)– general election (45%-55%)general election (45%-55%)

• Canada -- averages near 65%Canada -- averages near 65%

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

• strategic votingstrategic voting– vote in elections that are close racesvote in elections that are close races

• Florida predicted 60-2%, South Dakota predicted Florida predicted 60-2%, South Dakota predicted 75%75%

– vote in elections with candidates that voter has vote in elections with candidates that voter has strong feelings for/againststrong feelings for/against

– vote in elections with issues of relevance to votervote in elections with issues of relevance to voter• the “Seinfeld” election?the “Seinfeld” election?

– vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in vote in elections where multiple offices/issues in playplay

Explaining Voter TurnoutExplaining Voter Turnout

• low voter turnoutlow voter turnout• voter fatiguevoter fatigue• voter satisfactionvoter satisfaction• voter disaffectionvoter disaffection

Explaining Voter Turnout – Explaining Voter Turnout – Voter DisaffectionVoter Disaffection

• declining voter turnoutdeclining voter turnout– demographicsdemographics

– fewer differences between partyfewer differences between party• electoral strategyelectoral strategy• less interest in who winsless interest in who wins

– less effort at voter mobilization by partiesless effort at voter mobilization by parties

Explaining Voter Turnout – Explaining Voter Turnout – Voter DisaffectionVoter Disaffection

• do elections matter?do elections matter?– incumbencyincumbency

• elections are referedums on incumbentselections are referedums on incumbents• incumbent has to do something to loseincumbent has to do something to lose• challenger finds it hard to get money, hard to challenger finds it hard to get money, hard to

break cyclebreak cycle

– primariesprimaries

– winner-take-allwinner-take-all

– economyeconomy

Explaining Voter Turnout – Explaining Voter Turnout – Some ObservationsSome Observations

• voter turnout and September 11voter turnout and September 11thth

• voter turnout and split Congressvoter turnout and split Congress– split Congress leads to high competitionsplit Congress leads to high competition

– high competition leads to negative high competition leads to negative campaigningcampaigning

– negative campaigning leads to depressed negative campaigning leads to depressed voter turnoutvoter turnout

Referendums and Initiatives – Referendums and Initiatives – What are They?What are They?

• What are They?What are They?– initiative – proposal to put some issue to a initiative – proposal to put some issue to a

referendumreferendum• requires 3%-15% of voters to signrequires 3%-15% of voters to sign

– propositionproposition• referendum question put directly on the referendum question put directly on the

ballotballot

Referendums and Initiatives – Referendums and Initiatives – How and When Are They How and When Are They Used?Used?• allowed by 24 statesallowed by 24 states

– half of all initiatives take place in five stateshalf of all initiatives take place in five states• Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado, Oregon, California, North Dakota, Colorado,

ArizonaArizona

• success ratesuccess rate• 50% once they are on the ballot50% once they are on the ballot

• CaliforniaCalifornia• 8-12 propositions on EACH ballot8-12 propositions on EACH ballot

• some propositions of VERY considerable some propositions of VERY considerable importanceimportance

Main Point!Main Point!

• the American political system is geared the American political system is geared towards providing considerable towards providing considerable opportunities for mass political opportunities for mass political participationparticipation

• actual levels of mass participation may actual levels of mass participation may not reach the “ideal”; however, consensus not reach the “ideal”; however, consensus that the “ideal” is high mass participationthat the “ideal” is high mass participation