[pablo gerchunoff, lucas llach] el ciclo de la ilu(bookzz.org)
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Pablo GerchunoffLucas Llach
Un siglo de políticas económicasargentinas
emece
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334 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y EL DESENCANTO
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338 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y El. DESENCANTO
el capital extranjero debe tomarse como un complemento y no como factordeterminante e irreemplazable del desarrollo.'
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OTRO GOLPE DE SUERTETérminos del intercambio externo , 1960=100
160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.090.0
80.0
70.0
60.0 ' 1--r-+o v LO m o N a io m o N vv v v v a v^ v1 Un Ln Ln io io iom m m m m m m m m m m m m
Fuente: apéndice estadístico.
LOm m m m
LO
LOS SOCIOS SOCIALISTASExportación a países socialistas
como % de las exportaciones argentinas
8
16
14
12
10
86
4
2
o1972 1973
Fuente: Di Tella (1983).
1974 1975 1976
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VÉRTIGO ECONÓMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 343
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VÉRTIGO ECONÓMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 345
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348 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y EL DESENCANTO
UN CUADRO DESMEJORADOIndicadores económicos durante el peronismo
14 -r
12 +
1 0+
8+
6+
4+
2+
0 t r-^1973 1974 1975
Crecimiento ( escala izquierda)Inflación ( escala derecha)Déficit del sector público ( escala izquierda)
Fuente : apéndice estadístico.
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
o
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VÉRTIGO ECONÓMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 355
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el caos sembrado por el gobierno marxista de Allende solamente aceleró loscambios socializantes graduales que se fueron introduciendo en Chile ininte-rrumpidamente desde mediados de la década del 30.8
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-Tasa nominal activa de interés, anual-Inflación mayorista anual-Tasa de interés real anual
Fuente: datos provistos por Carlos Winograd.
DINERO BARATOTasa de interés activa, nominal y real, antes de 1977
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360
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La actual situación financiera es típica de un ajuste transitorio debido, engran medida, a la sobreestimación por parte de los empresarios de la tasade inflación.9
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DIVERGENCIATasas trimestrales de inflación local e internacional
y de devaluación
------ Ta,a de deoalaaalón
----Tosa de Intlac- ote,mmonal
-Tasa de aeca daoen 1 tasa de ITadanmematlooal-in0ndon local minotlsta-Inlbcicn local _,_'do
--------------------------------------97911
Fuente : Canitrot ( 1981).
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r
VÉRTIGO ECONÓMICO EN TIEMPOS VIOLENTOS (1973-1983) 367
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368
LEJOS DEL MUNDOComercio argentino como porcentaje de su PBI
y del comercio mundial
0.0m m m
-Comercio exterior como % del P3l (escala izquierda)
Comercio argentino como % del comercio mundial (escala derecha)
m m m v un m Lom m m m m
3.000
.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
0.500
0.000
m m m m m
Fuente: Maddison (1995) y apéndice estadístico,
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370 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y EL DESENCANTO
ABAJO EL ARANCELEvolución de la estructura arancelaria bajo Martínez de Hoz
08/78
Arancel
o mas ae 100%
• 70%-100%
-40%-70%
o 10%- 20%
0l%-10%
.o%
Fuente: De Pablo (1987).
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CUANDO EL TIPO DE CAMBIO IMPORTAExportaciones , i mportaciones y tipo de cambio real
12000.0
10000.0
8000.0
6000.0
4000.0
2000.0
0.01 976 1 977 1 978 1 979
O Exportaciones~Importaciones
0 Tipo de cambio real deflactado por IPM (1976=100)
Fuente: Winograd (1984) y apéndice estadístico.
1 980
T 10000
90.00
80.00
70.00
60,00
50.00
40.00
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LAS CUENTAS DEL PROCESOGastos e ingresos de la administración central , como % del PBI
30 r
25 +
20 +
15 +
1 0+
5
o
on r n ro m mm m m m m m
® Ingresos (% del PBI ) Gastos ( % del PSI)
Fuente: base de datos propia.
Los dueños de pequeños ahorros sufren silenciosamente, como la experien-cia muestra, estas enormes depredaciones. cuando habrían derribado a un go-bierno que les hubiese quitado una fracción de ese monto por medios más de-liberados pero más justos.10
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CRECIMIENTO CEROLa Argentina y el mundo en 1973-83
UN PROCESO NEGATIVOCrecimiento e inflación en 1973-83
Crecimiento - Inflación minorista
o PBI per capita 1e1973, en dólares de 1990o PBI per capas de 1983. en dólares de 1990
PBI per capita d e i 973, en dólares de 1990
PBI por Capea de 1983, en dólares de 1990
Europa: Alemania, Reino Unido, Francia e Italia.NICS: Taiwán, Tailandia y Corea del Sur,Mundo: muestra de 56 paises de Maddison (1995).
Fuente: Maddison (1995).
Fuente: apéndice estadistico.
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El ciclo de la ilusióny el desencantoUn siglo de políticas económicasargentinas
emecé
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386 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y El. DESENCANTO
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LA DÉCADA PERDIDACrecimiento comparado de la Argentina y otros países
de América latina
10000.09000.0
8000.07000.06000.05000.04000.03000.02000.01000.0
0.0
-1,52% anual
Argentina
-0.01% anual
6 grandes deAmérica latina
o PBI per cápita en 1982 0P81 per cápita en 1989
'Se trata de Brasil , Colombia, Chile, México, Perú y VenezuelaFuente: Maddison (1995).
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secundario.
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392 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y F.I. DESENCANTO
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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFÍCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 395
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LA DEMOCRACIA Y el. DtFícll, GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 403
de inflación. Por otro lado. la inflación acumulada desdejunio (le 1985 habíameado presiones en el mercado de trabajo y había deteriorado un poco el ni-vel real de las tarifas públicas y el tipo de cambio.'
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AUSTRAL , ESTABILIZACIÓN Y DESPUÉSTasas mensuales de inflación minorista
15+
10+
5+
0 1Lo uf) u') In ll7 !n co co co CoaJ oJ m (A m OJ OJ Co OJ N C W W Co N OJ> 3 á >w <ñ Z W w Z w N f)C (n
Fuente: Machinea (1989),
yo soy monetarista, estructura!ista y todo lo que sea necesario para bajar lainflación, y si hay que recurrir a la macumba, también .7
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1 LA DEMOCRACIA 1' EL DIFÍCIL GOI31ERN0... (1983-1989) 409
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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EL DIFÍCIL GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 411
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416
laboral que impedía toda influencia del gobierno en la determinación desalarios, exceptuando obviamente los del sector público.
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LA DEMOCRACIA Y EI, DIFICIL. GOBIERNO... (1983-1989) 419
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El ciclo de la ilusióny el desencantoUn siglo de políticas económicasargentinas
emece
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GRANDES EXPECrArlvkS, GRANDES... (1989-2001) 423
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Las tendencias de la economía internacional durante los años 90pueden entenderse , desde una perspectiva histórica, como una prolonga-ción y una intensificación de las que venían manifestándose desde laposguerra . El proceso de interrelación creciente entre los varios merca-
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HISTORIA Y PREHISTORIA DE LA GLOBALIZACIÓNValor del comercio y la producción mundiales
(escala logarítmica , 1870=100)
Fuente: Maddison (1995).
Comercio
GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... (1989-2001) 427
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428 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSIÓN Y EL DESENCANTO
GRANDES ExPECTAnvAS, G RA N DES... (1989-2001) 429
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DE LA HIPERINFLACIÓN A LA INFLACIÓN CEROVariación porcentual anual de los índices de precios
1980-88 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Precios al consumidor 287 4.924 1.344 84 17,5 7,4 3,9 1,6 0,1 0,3Precios mayoristas
Fuente: Lach (1997).
293 5.383 798 57 3,1 0,1 3 5,8 2,1 -0,9
GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, G RANDES... (1989-2001) 433
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437
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444
445
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446
GRANDES EXPECTATIVAS, GRANDES... ( 1989-2001) 447
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448 EL CICLO DE LA ILUSION Y EL DESENCANTO
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U GRANDES ExNCCTATtv,as, GRANDES... (1989-2001) 451
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452
GRANDES EXPECLanvAS,GRANDES... (1989-2001) 453
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GRANDES ExpEcTATwAS,GRANDES...(1989-2001) 455
UN PROBLEMA DE PROPORCIONESDeuda externa como porcentaje de las exportaciones,
países seleccionados (2000)
700%
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
1 00%
0%
Fuente: estadísticas del Fondo Monetario Internacional y de la Organización Mundial de Comercio.
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