on the climate challenge and north- south technology ... · on the climate challenge and...

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

On the climate challenge and north-south technology collaborationHelge Drangehelge.drange@nersc.no

www.bjerknes.uib.no

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Outline

1) Global climate: Status

2) Climate change → adaptation

3) Examples – Typhoons & hurricanes– Rain / drought – Heatwaves – Sea level rise – Ocean acidification

4) Technology collaboration

5) Summary

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Today

(Ensemble Mean IPCC 4AR, Scenario A2)

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

1 – Mitigation

2 – Adaptation

3 – Responsibility

4 – Opportunities

Today

(Ensemble Mean IPCC 4AR, Scenario A2)

3 mill yr

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Observed global change in temperature (1870-2007)

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/

Why warming?The 12 warmest years have all occurred during the last

13 years

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

CO2 (ppm)

0°C

-8°C

280 ppm

200 ppm

5.8°C

1.4°C

960 ppm

550 ppm

Temperatur (oC)

CO2 (ppm)

0°C

-8°C

280 ppm

200 ppm

5.8°C

1.4°C

960 ppm

550 ppm

Temperatur (oC)

650,000 år 1850 2008 2100850,000 år 1850

Observed and projected atmospheric CO2

• Today: Highest level in 850.000 years

• 2100: Likely highest level in 20 million years

The main reason for the increase is burning of coal, oil and gas (2/3rds), and deforestration (1/3rd)

850,000 år

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Solar irradiance and cosmic radiation cannot explain the observed warming during the recent decades, increased

GHGs can

But solar irradiance, the distance between the Earth and Sun, and the tilt of the Earth´s rotation

axis govern climate variations in the past

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Observed global change in temperature (1870-2007)

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/

Future?

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

IPCC temperature scenarios

IPCC 2007

Requires >50% reduced GLOBAL emissions by 2050, and much larger reductions thereafter

+ 3 ºC: Irreversible changes

+ 2 ºC wrt to 1850: EU-target

+4 ºC: With todays emissions

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(GtC

y-1)

5

6

7

8

9

10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:

A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61

Observed2000-2006 3.3%

20062005

Em

issi

ons

Gt-C

per

yr

www.globalcarbonproject.org

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

SRES B1: Ca. 50%

reduction by 2050

IPCC Temperature scenarios, 2090-99 vs 1980-99

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

SRES B1: Ca. 50%

reduction by 2050

SRES A2: Business-as-usual

IPCC Temperature scenarios, 2090-99 vs 1980-99

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Outline

1) Global climate: Status

2) Climate change → adaptation

3) Examples – Typhoons & hurricanes– Rain / drought – Heatwaves – Sea level rise – Ocean acidification

4) Technology collaboration

5) Summary

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Global temperature, IPCC AR4

Multiple stresses

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Comined effect: Population↑ + Exisiting infrastructure + T↑ + P↑↓ + Glaciers↓ + SLH↑ + ...

Variability↑↓ hhh(frequency, intensity, duration)

Food/water availability/quality

Are climate / human society / ecosystems heading towards thresholds?

Multiple stresses

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Stable situation = known climate

Unstable situationUnstable, often unknown and possibly irreversible situation

A new climate state: Regime shift

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Outline

1) Global climate: Status

2) Climate change → adaptation

3) Examples – Typhoons & hurricanes– Rain / drought – Heatwaves – Sea level rise – Ocean acidification

4) Technology collaboration

5) Summary

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

1 Sep 2005: Typhoon Talim (Isang), Force 4

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

6 Sep 2005: Super Typhoon Nabi (Jolina), Force 5

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

11 Sep 2005: Typhoon Khanun (Kiko), Force 4

Western Norway, 14 September 2005

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

14 Sep 2005

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Slides in Norway on 14 November, 2005

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Expected change in rainfall (SRES A1B)

Wetter DryerDryer

Trigger conflicts, influence food production and supply

Climate refugees

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Heat wave in south and

central Europe, August 2003

London

Paris

Madrid

Rome

Oslo

Lasted for two weeks

∼30.000 fatalities

Failure in power supply

Excessive melting of mountain glaciers

Loss: 100 billion RMB

Naturally occurring every ∼400 year

What about the future?

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (1

961-

1990

) (°C

)

Year

Stott et al. (2004)

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway Year

Stott et al. (2004)Te

mpe

ratu

re a

nom

aly

(196

1-19

90) (

°C) Are we prepared?

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Major Rivers in China are oriented East-West, as are the major weather systems

Yellow River

Yangtze River

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Dried-up days observed in Li-Jin Station of the Yellow River (1972-1997)

from www.yellowriver.org

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995I I I I I

“君不见黄河之水天上来，奔流到海不复回”（李白)Source: Tianjun Zhou

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Foto: Jan M. Lillebø, Bergens Tidende

Sea level

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Muir Glacier, AlaskaAugust 1941 August 2004

Many examples

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Glacier in the Khangschung walley E of Mt Everest, Tibet Photo 25 July 2005 by Harry Jans (from John Birks)

Glaciers as fresh water source

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Estimated global mean sea level change (cm)

Based on Rahmstorf (2006)

A2A1BB1

IPCC (2007): Up to 50+ cm

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Estimated global mean sea level change (cm)

Based on Rahmstorf (2006)

A2A1BB1

Between 55-110 cm

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Sea level

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

283

Gt C

• Ocean uptake of CO2 leads to reduced pH-value -throughout the world oceans - and particularly in cold waters• Poorly known - but potentially severe - implications for the marine ecosystems• Lowered pH will last >1000 years

58 %

42 %

Oceanic uptake of man-made CO2

(for 1800-1994)

Marland et al, 2003 og Sabine et al., 2004

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Outline

1) Global climate: Status

2) Climate change → adaptation

3) Examples – Typhoons & hurricanes– Rain / drought – Heatwaves – Sea level rise – Ocean acidification

4) Technology collaboration

5) Summary

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Technology transfer north/south

1. Mitigation technologies (reduced emissions both in north and south)

2. Adaptation technologies1. Is a part of the Kyoto protocol and Kyoto process

2. May become part of the post-Kyoto negotiations in Copenhagen, December 2009 (e.g. China)

70% of accumulated GHG emissions originate from N-America + Europe + Japan

Major emitters have a major responsibility

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Technology transfer north/south

2. Mitigation technologies

Reduced emissions absolutely needed – both in developed and developing countries – to limit global warming

Leap-frogging; developing countries can base new system on lessons learned in developed countries

Business opportunities; build-up climate friendly knowledge and technology for a global market

Major challenge: Governmental and corporate collaboration (technology may exisit, but may not be used)

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

Technology transfer north/south

2. Adaptation technologiesWater availability and qualityFood availability and security

Societal security, extreme weather Roads, buildings, communication, crops,

slides, flooding, ....Mapping Prevention Monitoring Forecasting Warning Rescuing Rebuilding

G C Rieber Climate InstituteNansen Center, Bergen, Norway

SummaryHuman activities do change climate

Climate will continue to change irrespective of mitigation measures – adaptation needed

It´s a climate catastrophy if China, India, Brazil and Mexico reach the fossil fuel-based energy consumption of

N-America, Europe and Japan

It´s a climate catastrophy if the GHG-emissions from N-America, Europe and Japan continue without big reductions

50% global cut by 2050 is required to meet the two-degrees target; possibly 70-80% cut in the GHG emissions from developed countries

Global emissions need to point down in 5-10 years from now