oluwakemi izomo. hans-peter plag april 10, 2014 ccslri and mari the prognosis: anticipating...

Oluwakemi Izomo

Hans-Peter PlagApril 10, 2014

CCSLRI and MARI

The Prognosis: Anticipating SurprisesThe Therapy: Lifestyle changes

The Syndrome: Climate (and Global) ChangesThe Diagnosis: Leaving the Holocene

Initial Goal: Find answers to three main questions:

(1) Will faculty do research on CC and SLR across department and college boundaries?(2) Is there need for more, and new, education focusing on CC and SLR?(3) Is there a societal knowledge need concerning CC and SLR, as well as mitigation and adaptation, that the initiative could respond to?

CCSLRI: Research, Teaching, Outreach

The Syndrome: Climate (and Global) Changes

IPCC, 2013

today11,700

Marcott et al., 2013

<------------Holocene------------->

20,000 years ago, sea level in Northern America and Scandinavia was up to 600 m higher than today, and in some other location 200 m lower

Global and Local Sea Level Changes

During the last 7,000 years, global (and local) sea level was exceptionally stable

Local Sea Level Changes can be much larger than the global average changes.

Sea Level Changes can be much larger than what we know from our history.

<---Holocene--->

The Holocene had unusually stable climate and sea levels; a perfect condition for the development of civilizations.

The Holocene was a “safe operating space for humanity.”

We are moving out of the Holocene and the “safe operating space for humanity” (Rockstroem et al., 2009):Climate Change (***)

Ocean acidification (**)

Stratospheric ozone depletion (*)

Nitrogen (******) and Phosphorous cycles (**)

Global freshwater (*)

Change in land use (*)

Biodiversity loss (*******)

Atmospheric aerosols (?)

Chemical pollution (?)Climate change and sea level rise are symptoms, not the cause, the “sickness.”

The Diagnosis: Leaving the Holocene

“Has human activity over the past two centuries pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the Anthropocene?”

James Syvitski, 2012.

We have moved from the back seats of the bus into the driver seat ...

We need leadership that can drive the bus and keep it on a safe track ...

The planet is on a rocky path unknown to humanity; to more variability ...

And it seems pretty obvious that the time has arrived to prepare for the consequences of unsustainability, ...

Robert Engelman, 2013; president, World Watch Institute

We need to develop adaptive capabilities to handle surprises ...

The Prognosis: Anticipating Surprises

IPCC, 2013

1 C

2

3

4

}IPCC Assessment: Very Likely by 2100

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Marcott et al., 2013

<--Holocene--->

<--Anthropocene ??

IPCC, 2013

Modified from Church et al. (2010)

Example Hampton Roads

Soon could get as high as:20 mm per year (about 6 feet in 100 years)

Today’s rate: 5 mm per year(about 1.5 feet in 100 years)

Example: Greenland and Antarctic Ice SheetsAccepted knowledge in 2000:Greenland: no significant contribution to sea level riseAntarctica: minor contributionMain contribution: steric changes

The last 10 years of observing the ice sheets have revealed many surprises ...

The future will be more variable than the past.There is the potential for surprises and new extremes ...Rapid melting of West Antarctic Ice Sheet: up to 4.8 m sea level rise

The Therapy: Lifestyle Changes

Preparing for surprisesAdaptive Leadership that knows the “worst case” and can facilitate adaptation to unpredictable futureParadigm shifts: • understanding the vulnerabilities and comprehensively assessing the risks • making room for the water• a built environment for extreme floods (buildings and services) • knowing the worst cases (heat waves, droughts, storms, changes in mean conditions) • having early warning (for extreme events and rapid impacts)

Living where it is safe, working where it is needed

Social construct of risk and vulnerability:Question: Do we know the risks we have not addressed?• Fire insurance: we pay for a risk that has a 99.8% chance not to happen.• Hurricanes and storm surges: - The Netherlands: pays (a lot: 2.5% of GDP) to reduce a risk that has a 99% chance not to happen in this century. - The USA: we here do not pay (a lot) to reduce a risk that has a 66% chance to happen in this century. - Norfolk and Virginia Beach: Cost-benefit analysis shows we should be willing to pay on the order of $100,000,000 each year to reduce this risk (with many immediate benefits)

Preparing for surprises

“What is good for Earth’s life support system is good for humanity”

Griggs et al., 2013: “Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends”

Economy for humanity:“An economy that meets our needs while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.”

Sustainable Development:

“No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.” Albert Einstein

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it”

Upton Sinclair