nsta web seminar: earth then, earth now: our changing climate climate change jeopardy

NSTA Web Seminar:

Earth Then, Earth Now: Our Changing Climate

Climate Change Jeopardy

Presented by Dr. Mike Winton, NOAA

LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Climate Change Jeopardy

Host: Mike Wintonof NOAA/GFDL31 March 2009

The categories are• Observations of change• Basic greenhouse physics• Climate models & what they tell us• Climate change options

The earth’s surface is warming

GISS Temperature

IPCC

The heat that has warmed our climate did not come out of the ocean

1993-2003 sea level rise

Antarctica 0.20 mm/yr

Greenland 0.21 mm/yr

Glaciers and Ice Caps

0.77 mm/yr

Total 1.18 mm/yr

Ice is declining globally

• Both Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice• Glaciers are retreating globally• Northern hemisphere snow cover has declined• Northern hemisphere sea ice cover is declining• Southern hemisphere sea ice cover is not declining

Sea level is rising (ice melt + seawater expansion)

IPCC

Earth’s energy balance is the key to long-term climate change

IPCC

Without the greenhouse effect the earth’s climate would be …

A) The sameB) A wee bit coolerC) Like the ice agesD) Like a big ice ball

Without the greenhouse effect the earth’s climate would be …

A) The sameB) A wee bit coolerC) Like the ice agesD) Like a big ice ball

The most important greenhouse gas is?

A) N2 (78 % of the atmosphere)B) O2 (21 % of the atmosphere)C) H20 (<1 % of the atmosphere)D) CO2 (0.038 % of the atmosphere)

The most important greenhouse gas is?

A) N2 (78 % of the atmosphere)B) O2 (21 % of the atmosphere)C) H20 (<1 % of the atmosphere)D) CO2 (0.038 % of the atmosphere)

Water vapor is a climate feedback

Atmospheric CO2 is increasing

Global Warming Art

Atmospheric CO2 was stable prior to the 19th century

IPCC

The CO2 increase is anthropogenic

CDIAC

We are perturbing the Global carbon cycle

IPCC

Atmospheric carbon has a range of timescales from short to very, very long

Global Warming Art

Our greenhouse gas emissions have changed the heat budget of

the entire earth by?

A) About 0.01 %B) About 0.1 %C) About 1 %D) About 10 %

Our greenhouse gas emissions have changed the heat budget

of the entire earth by:A) about 0.01 %B) about 0.1 %C) about 1 %D) about 10 %

There are numerous anthropogenic forcings of climate change

IPCC

We need global climate models to help us sort this

out but they are …A) Somewhat credible because they are based

on fundamental physical and chemical principles

B) Not completely reliable since they have significant disagreement with each other

C) BothD) Neither

We need global climate models to help us sort this out but they

are …

A) Somewhat credible because they are based on fundamental physical and chemical principles

B) Not completely reliable since they have significant disagreement with each other

C) BothD) Neither

What is a global climate model?A GCM is a mathematical representation of the major climate system components and their interactions. The GCM equations operate on a global grid and are solved on a computer.

Atmosphere

Land IceOcean

Physical CM

ESM*

*Earth System Model

Concentrations of radiatively active species

Emissions of radiatively active species

Climate model equations are solved on global grids

Current model resolution

OCEAN MODEL RESOLUTION: 1 deg.

1980s

1990s

2000s

Atmosphere 2 deg.

Simulated vs. Parameterized

• Simulated processes: larger than grid-scale, based on bedrock scientific principles (conservation of energy, mass and momentum). Example: storms.

• Parameterized processes: smaller than grid scale, formulations guided by physical principles but also make use of observational data. Example: clouds.

Detection and attribution of climate change using models

(1) Detection: something beyond natural variability is happening to the global climate

(2) Attribution: anthropogenic forcing is that “something”

IPCC

Detection and attribution at the continental scale

Climate models need emissions to project future climate change

IPCC

Projection: 21st century global temperature rises further

IPCC

The hydrologic cycle intensifies

Sea level rises further

Caveat: ice sheet dynamic response not fully modeled

IPCC

Global warming impacts Option 1: Adapt

IPCC

Option 2: Mitigation stabilize carbon emissions

Socolow, Scientific American 2006

• Conserve energy or produce it more efficiently• Use alternative energy: solar, wind, bio, nuclear• Sequester carbon

Emissions growth has powerful socio-economic drivers

IPCC

Emissions growth has powerful socio-economic drivers

The

Ric

h

The Rest

The Rest Become Rich Pop. increases

Population

Em

issi

ons

per

capi

ta

Rich emission level

If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses the earth

would cool back down in?A) 1 yearB) 10 yearsC) 100 yearsD) 1000 years or longer

If we stopped emitting greenhouse gasses the earth would cool back

down in

A) 1 yearB) 10 yearsC) 100 yearsD) 1000 years or longer

Solomon S. et.al. PNAS 2009;106:1704-1709

Even if emissions were cut to zero, temperature would fall very slowly

There are three options:• Mitigation – reduce carbon emissions

• Adaptation – adjust to climate change as best we can

• Geoengineering (e.g. continuously inject reflective aerosols into stratosphere)

What option(s) are bestA)MitigationB)AdaptationC)Mitigation and adaptation, not geoengineeringD)Adaptation and geoengineering, not mitigation

Summary: Climate change jeopardy is a high stakes game with uncertain odds

More certain Less certain

Basic greenhouse physics

CO2 increase anthropogenic

Earth is warming

Warming is anthropogenic

Future carbon emissions

Future climate change

Impacts of future climate change

Special Thanks to NOAA, SRS and USFS for sponsoring this Web

Seminar!

http://www.elluminate.com

http://learningcenter.nsta.org

NLC screenshot

National Science Teachers AssociationDr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director

Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs

Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning

NSTA Web SeminarsPaul Tingler, Director

Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator