noaa’ climate prediction center international desks

NOAA’ Climate Prediction Center International Desks

Wassila M. ThiawTeam Leader

CPC Mission

• National temperature and precipitation outlooks

• Focus: short term climate

• Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers and institutions

• Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products

We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and

the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.

Temperature Outlook

CPC’s International Decision Support Systems

Goals:• To provide timely, reliable, accurate, and relevant climate

information that developing countries can to make informed decisions.

Approach:• Develop collaborative partnerships to identify specific climate

information needs and enhance climate products

• Build capacity through improved understanding and more realistic prediction of the climate system

Background

• African Desk established in 1994 following the South American Desk in 1989 and the Caribbean Desk in 1993. The NCEP International Desks are part of the US contribution to the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program (VCP)

• Initial Objective of the African Desk: To support capacity building in climate prediction, monitoring, and assessments at National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Africa

• Motivation: Recurrent and severe droughts in Africa in the 70s through the 90s caused demand for water for human and agricultural use to exceed reliable supply

• African Desk expanded to include project support for USAID FFP and OFDA, and the recently established Monsoon Desk

• Monsoon Training Desk established in 2010

Why is Africa Relevant?

Hurricane Bill8/18/2009

• AWD formed and developed in West Africa, August 11

• NHC “invest area” off coastal Guinea and Senegal, August 12

• Tropical Storm Bill August 15• Major Hurricane Bill August 17

The Madden Julian OscillationSpring 2005 MJO Event

Why Africa is Relevant?

• High Impact Weather

• Extended range and long range outlooks

• Hazards Outlooks

• Monsoon Monitoring

• Professional Development Training

NOAA’ Climate Prediction Center (CPC) International Desks Web Site

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/

Quantitative Precipitation Forecast – Probability of Exceedance

• Multi-model ensemble:• ECMWF• NCEP GFS and GEFS• UKMO

• Model diagnostics

• Expert interpretation and guidance

• Dissemination

CPC Global Tropics Hazards Outlooks

Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions

NCEP CFS V2 – 20 member ensemble forecasts for DJF 2011-12

ENSO Rainfall Composites

DJF SeasonWarm ENSO

DJF SeasonCold ENSO

JAS SeasonWarm ENSO

JAS SeasonCold ENSO

ENSO Rainfall Composites

Global to Regional Climate Information for Africa

Rainfall Forecasts for Sep-Nov 2011April Initial Conditions

Feeds into Regional ClimateOutlook Forums

Combination of CCA andCFS V2 Forecasts

Seasonal Rainfall Guidance

Seasonal Rainfall Guidance

Regional Climate Outlook Forums

• Mechanism to bring together climate experts to produce regional climate outlooks

• Outreach to develop effective communications strategies

• Representative users to identify needs and formulate strategies

• Capacity building

GHA Consensus Climate OutlookSeptember - December 2011

Courtesy: ICPAC Nairobi, Kenya

Operational Climate MonitoringRainfall Anomaly Jul – Dec 2010

• High resolution Satellite imagery used to derive rainfall estimates

• Departures from average are computed to monitor the evolution of seasonal rainfall

• Information used to assess impacts on agriculture and water resources

Vegetation Health Index

Operational Climate Monitoring

• Vegetation response to rainfall deficits

• Assess state of the crops

Support to USAID’s Food Security Planning

• Objective: Support

USAID/Food for Peace

• Facilitate decision making on

issues related to food security.

• Enable USAID for other risk

management strategies, such

as humanitarian relief efforts

Weekly Climate Risk Bulletins

Monitoring Drought

Monitoring Drought

Monitoring Drought

Summary Operational Products for Africa

South Asia Domain

New Opportunities: Climate and HealthMeningitis Incidence Rate

in logarithmic form - Case of Burkina FasoBase Period: 1968-2005

Yaka et al., 2008

New Opportunities: Climate and Health

Yaka et al., 20080

1000

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7000

130 143 156 169 182 195 208 221 234 247 260 273 286 299 312 325 338 351 364

Day number

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(in m

m)

Cholera in Dakar (Accumulated)Dakar precipitation (accumulated)

Climate and water borne Diseases Cholera

Cholera Incidence

Precipitation

CPC International Training Desk

• Provide professional development training to meteorologists in Africa and other parts of the world

• Began with the African Desk: Initially focused on climate predictions, assessments, and monitoring

• Expanded in 2006 to focus on short range weather forecasting as well in support of the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

• Desk provides an opportunity to issue seamless guidance to African NMHSs from weather to climate

• Monsoon Training Desk established in 2010

African Training Desk

• Established in 1994 as part of DOS capacity building program

• Status: Hosted 117 visiting scientists from 37 African countries, Thailand and Panama, since 1995.

Residency Training CoverageAs of November 2011

African Weather Desk Curriculum

• Use and interpretation of NWP

• Access COMET NWP Distance Learning Training

• Increasing use of ensembles; Probabilistic products

• GIS applications

• Write forecast bulletins

• Week-1&2 forecasts

• Model verification studies

• Modes of variability (ENSO, MJO, etc.)

• Access and process large data to study predictability

• Subseasonal forecasting (Week-1 & Week-2)

• Seasonal rainfall forecasts

• Climate assessments and monitoring

• One week visit to the IRI

NCEP CFS V2 – 20 member ens. forecasts for DJF 2011-12

African Climate Desk Curriculum

On-The-Job Training

African Deskstaff and trainees

Senegal

NigeriaEthiopia

Thailand

EgyptMaliEgypt

On-The-Job Training

Ms. Awatif Mostafa, Egypt

Predicting Egypt Seasonal RainfallAwatif Mostafa

Monsoon Desk

• Established in 2010

• US China Bilateral Agreement on Science and Technology

• Objective: To improve climate prediction in countries affected by monsoons

Visiting Scientists in the Monsoon Desk

NOAA-USAID SponsoredInternational Climate Training Workshops

Theme: Operational Climate Prediction and Monitoring

Focus: Ocean Basins• Indian Ocean: Africa and SE

Asia, Vietnam, 2009

• Mediterranean: Africa and SE Europe, Turkey, 2010

• Atlantic Basin: Africa and Caribbean, Senegal, 2011

• Pacific Basin: Central America, South America, SE Asia, Pacific Islands, Costa Rica, 2012

Lecture Session on Droughts

Classroom photo,First International Training Workshop, Vietnam, 2009

Ocean Predictability

Model Name MembersNCEP CFS V1 15NCEP CFS V2 28GFDL-CM2.2 10IRI-Echam4-f 12IRI-Echam4-a 12CCSM3.0 6

Courtesy: H. Van den Dool

Proposed moored buoys

NOAA-WMOCapacity building – Ocean Observations

IOC/WMO Data Buoy Cooperation Panel

Capacity Building: Indian Ocean• First Workshop: Capetown, South Africa, April 2010

• Second Workshop: Mauritius, April 2011

• Third Workshop: Mombasa, Kenya, April 2012

Lecture Session on Droughts

NOAA-United NationsCapacity building – Ocean Observations

Participants in the First DBCP Capacity building Workshop

Vision

• Engage with users of climate information to identify needs and improve operational decision support systems

• Explore opportunities for emerging climate applications such as health risk management

• Work with international community to strengthen the capacity of climate institutions in developing countries

• Foster north – south collaboration on all aspects of climate variability and change, and provide a mechanism for technology transfer that yields tangible benefits

Thank you