next generation transportation - cercle d'infraestructures · • backseat rebellion:...

Samuel I. Schwartz, P.E.

Next Generation Transportation

Tramway-City, New Mobility - Barcelona

March 7, 2017

OUTLINE

• History of U.S. Transportation 20th Century

• The Millennial Revolution 2000-2015

• The Uber Revolution 2011-Present

• The Autonomous Vehicle Revolution 2017-?

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U.S. TRANSPORTATION HISTORY 1900-2016

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Sources: “Peak Travel?” Freakonomics, 11 January 2011; FHWA Traffic Volumes 2013

Model T

Revolution

Destruction of

Streetcars

Interstate

Highway Boom

Millennial

Revolution

To

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VM

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U.S. TRANSPORTATION HISTORY

1908 Henry Ford Introduces Model T, 15M Sold as low as $260

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U.S. TRANSPORTATION HISTORY

1930s/1940s Destruction of Street Cars Systems in U.S.

• Auto companies, oil companies buy more than 100 transit companies

• Replace streetcars with buses

• Convicted: General Motors Corporation, Phillips Petroleum Company, Firestone Tire &

Rubber Company, and 6 others

• Also guilty, The Modernists

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BARCELONA STREETCARS 1899-1971

• Last two lines closed on March 19th, 1971

• In 2004 new lines are built (TRAM Besos and TRAM Baix)

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U.S. NOW LOOKS TO EUROPE, ASIA, FOR STREETCAR

INNOVATIONS

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Bordeaux

Barcelona

Nanjing

Brooklyn-Queens

BQX Route

• 15-mile north south route from Astoria to

Sunset Park

• 2-mile shuttle into downtown Brooklyn

• 30 stops, about ½ mile apart, 24-hour service,

5-min peak headways

• Estimated weekday ridership of 52,000 by

2035, annual ridership of 15.8 million

• Fares and transfers with MetroCard,

equivalent pricing

• Exclusive lanes for 65% of route (12 mph

w/stops)

• SBS-style treatments for 15% (10 mph

w/stops)

• Mixed traffic with signal priority for 20% of

route (8 mph with stops – compared to

7 mph for local buses)

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U.S. TRANSPORTATION HISTORY

1940s and Beyond Sprawl + Interstate Era

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“Traffic will run pretty smoothly…

Within three years, the time needed to carry out our plans.”

Robert Moses, 1941

STREETSMART:

The Rise of Cities

and the Fall of Cars

THE TRANSPORTATION REVOLUTION NO ONE PLANNED AND

NO ONE SEEMED TO NOTICE

Total and Per Capita Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 1970 - 2016

US. Federal Highway Administration

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GLOBAL VKT RATES BEGIN TO PLATEAU

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Source: “Traffic Growth: Modelling a Global Phenomenon,” Australian Department of Infrastructure and Transport, 2012

Figure 2.12 Traffic per person in Belgium Figure 2.16 Traffic per person in Britain

Figure 2.84 Traffic per person in Spain Figure 2.36 Traffic per person in France

GLOBAL VKT RATES BEGIN TO PLATEAU

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Source: “Traffic Growth: Modelling a Global Phenomenon,” Australian Department of Infrastructure and Transport, 2012

Figure 2.72 Traffic per person in the Netherlands Figure 2.60 Traffic per person in Italy

Figure 2.48 Traffic per person in Hungary Figure 2.24 Traffic per person in Czech Republic

BARCELONA

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Source: Source: Agencia d’Ecologia Urbana de Barcelona, “Pla de Mobilitat Urbana de Barcelona: PMU 2013-2018”

RECESSIONS DAMPEN VMT, THEN IT REBOUNDS WITH THE

ECONOMY. BUT, NOT THIS TIME

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Source: “Vehicle Miles Traveled on ALL Roads,” Doug Short, January 2017.

Estimated Vehicle Miles Traveled on US Roads 1971-2017

WHO’S DRIVING LESS? MILLENNIALS

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“The Millennial generation seems to be defying its sheltered, suburban

upbringing by delaying the acquisition of a driver’s license and

choosing transit. Meanwhile, Baby Boomers, who grew up using transit

and were encouraged to do so, are defying their upbringing by avoiding

transit now.”

- “Who’s On Board: 2014 Mobility Attitudes Survey,” TransitCenter, 2014

Sources: “The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be,” Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 28 March 2014; “Percentage of Young Persons With a Driver's License Continues to Drop,” Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle , July 20, 2012; National Household Travel Survey, 2011; “Millennials in Motion,” U.S. PIRG, 2014

Percentage of Young Persons With a Driver's License Continues to Drop

WHY ARE THEY DRIVING LESS?

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• Neighborhood choice: 38% of under-30s live in urban areas vs. 22% of 30-60s

and 14% of over-60s

• Socializing: more via social media, less in person

• Shopping: more via Amazon, less at brick and mortar shops

• Graduated Driver Licensing statutes: harder to get a license

• Sharing economy

Car share

Bike share

Via, Uber, Lyft

• Student debt: no disposal income for a car

• Backseat rebellion: Millennials grew up watching their parents suffer while driving;

mobility peaked in the 70’s and 80’s

• Unlocking the “mysteries” of transit

• Freedom Redefined

Source: “Who’s On Board: 2014 Mobility Attitudes Survey,” TransitCenter, 2014

Car Ownership

WHY?

1970: Freedom =

Paolo Santi

2017: Freedom = + Mobility

Portfolio

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HOW ARE PEOPLE GETTING AROUND WITHOUT CARS?

Active Transportation

Any method of travel that is all or partly human-powered. It refers to

transportation that supports walking, stair use, cycling, and transit. It includes

long-term land use and transportation planning to encourage alternate (non-

motor vehicle) forms of transport.

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REXDALE DOWNSVIEW

WESTON

WEXFORD

AGINCOURT MALVERN

WEST

HILL

Source: Neighborhood Environments And Resources For

Healthy Living – A Focus On Diabetes In Toronto

Glazier RH and Booth GL. November 2007

NATURAL ALLIES: PUBLIC HEALTH AND TRANSPORTATION

PROFESSIONALS

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Obesogenic Environment: Infrastructure, Land-use, Policies, Foods That Lead to Obesity

SURGEON GENERAL'S RX FOR HEALTH: WALK

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Source: Sept 9, 2015 Step It Up! The Surgeon General’s Call to Action to Promote Walking and Walkable Communities

ENCOURAGING ACTIVE TRANSPORTATION

• Dense cities with mixed land-use generate short trips

• Safe, convenient cycling including bike parking

• Connected, direct, and pleasant sidewalks and paths

• Traffic systems and designs with pedestrians and cyclists in mind

• Good transit

• Coordinate transit, cycling, and walking

• Laws and enforcement to protect peds + bikes > cars

• Education programs (public health + planning community)

• Equitable cost of transportation by mode

• Start young; encourage walk-to-school and “free-range kids”

• Safety from crime (Good lighting, defined paths, in some cases well-

patrolled, removal of obstacles, etc.)

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NOT JUST AN EAST/WEST COAST PHENOMENON

23 Source: Brookings Analysis of American Community Survey Data

Metropolitan Share of Non-Car Commuters, 2007 to 2013

Boise

Fargo

Grand Rapids

Dallas

AND EVERY CITY, IT SEEMS, WANTS A TECH HUB

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metrorevolution.org

AND EVERY CITY, IT SEEMS, WANTS A TECH HUB

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metrorevolution.org

GDP INVERSELY RELATED TO VMT

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Source: “Smart growth and better transit can grow wealth,” Houston Tomorrow, 24 January 2011.

Per Capita GDP and VMT for US States

VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT POSITIVELY CORRELATES

WITH TRANSIT RIDERSHIP

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Source: “Transit in the Start-Up City, Part 2,” Transit Miami, 10 September 2013.

THE UBER REVOLUTION 2011-PRESENT

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GROWTH OF TNCS

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Source: Unsustainable by Schaller Consulting February 2017

THE TNC EFFECT ON NYC 2013-2016

• Taxi Share Decreased 25%

• Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) Jumped 7%

• Speeds Dropped by 20% in Midtown

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-25% +7%

Source: Unsustainable by Schaller Consulting February 2017

WHERE DID THEY GO?

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Source: Unsustainable by Schaller Consulting February 2017

Changes in Ridership by Mode 2015-2016

THINK UBER WAS DISRUPTIVE? Wait Till Autonomous Cars Arrive in a

Neighborhood Near You

THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY (POSSIBILITIES)

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• VMT soars & congestion increases

• Many jobs disappear

• Peds, bikes squeezed out

• Unaffordable for poor and rural dwellers

• Reverses millennial trend eschewing driving

• Congestion diminishes

• Crashes, injuries, and deaths plummet

• Disabled well-served

• Last mile solved

• Parking demand goes way down

• Public transportation decimated

• Cardio/stroke/diabetes sky rocket

• Everybody gets a license (even your dog)

• A new “modernist” view of cities

• Encourages sprawl

THE GOOD – MAY BE 90% SAFER THAN CARS

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THE GOOD – MAY BE 90% SAFER THAN CARS

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But Transit is Already 95% Safer

THE GOOD – IMPROVED LAST MILE FOR TRANSIT ACCESS

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THE BAD – VMT SOARS

Total and Per Capita Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) 1900 - 2030

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THE BAD – CONGESTION REMAINS AWFUL

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“The leading causes of death aren’t infections or accidents, but non-communicable diseases like

diabetes, stroke and cardiovascular disease…. and probably 80% of all preventable deaths. A sizeable

chunk … is due to inadequate exercise…”

- Street Smart: The Rise of Cities and The Fall of Cars, based on interview with Dr. Karen Lee

THE UGLY – MORE INACTIVITY: A LEADING CAUSE OF DEATH

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INACTIVITY TAKES MORE LIVES THAN CRASHES

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Traffic mortality:

1.25 million worldwide,

Inactivity:

U.S. They give a range. Maybe check it out and see what you think the best way is to read this: (191,000; 164,000–222,000), 2005, PLOS Medicine.

Sources:

NSC Motor Vehicle Fatality Estimates, 2016

NHTSA, 2015

PLOS Medicine, 2005

WHO, National Safety Council, 2013

The Lancet, 2008

5.300

1.250

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

Obesity/Inactivity (World) Motor Vehicle Crashes (World)

Num

ber

of

Death

s T

ho

usa

nd

s

Cause of Death

World Deaths (Inactivity vs. Crashes)

Th

ou

sa

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s

THE UGLY – WALL-E

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THE UGLY – OVERSIZED INFLUENCE OF

WE WERE CAUGHT FLAT-FOOTED BY UBER ET AL.

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Uber’s Lobbying Empire Extends From Coast To Coast

So What Should We Do?

Government and Society Should Get Ahead of the Curve

• Discourage private ownership, incentivize shift to transportation as service

• Maintain and support mass transit

• Emphasize last mile in sprawl areas and transit deserts

• Ensure system equity for low income, disabled, and elderly

• Utilize congestion pricing & TDM to maintain adequate mobility

• Prioritize lighter, smaller, lower energy, and less polluting vehicles

• Don’t mess with bike/ped growth in cities

• Reallocate parking for better use

• Apply appropriate taxes and fees

• Enact legislation and enforcement policies preemptively

• Promote full airing of ethics

• Humanize street design: widen sidewalks, don’t add lanes

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NEW YORK CITY: AMSTERDAM AVENUE

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NEW YORK CITY: AMSTERDAM AVENUE

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IN PROGRESS

NEW YORK CITY: AMSTERDAM AVENUE

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TRANSIT STRATEGIES

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• Don’t believe the hype on road trains

• Maintain good existing systems

• Use AVs for last mile transport

• Prepare transit workers for work in AV transit

AVs DON’T CHANGE THIS EQUATION

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“Your future is whatever you make it, so make it a good one.” Emmet “Doc” Brown, Back to the Future

CONCLUSION

Learn from history

Be wary

Plan for the Future

New York + Jersey City + Chicago + Washington D.C. + Tampa + Los Angeles

www.samschwartz.com