new - powerpoint template/media/employers... · background –nottingham city • 39, 200 over...

#nhsworkforcesupply

www.nhsemployers.org/workforcesupply

# nhsworkforcesupply

@NHSE_Ruth

# nhsworkforcesupply

Rethinking workforce planning for the future

Dr. Graham WillisHead of Research and Development, CfWIE: graham.willis@cfwi.org.ukT: +44(0)78 1234 0405

Many years ago…

How many trained hospital doctors will we have by 2040?

Cost

How many do we need?

Do we trust this?

Trai

ne

d h

osp

ital

do

cto

rs

(th

ou

san

ds)

60

50

40

30

Year2014 2040

Supply

Demand

?

Policy

What if the future is not what we expect?

Failure

Megatrends

ProblemSystem

Events

Consider many futures…

Expected future

Use plausible, challenging and consistent futures to test policies

Robust workforce planning

Understand the system

Explore the future

Simulate the possibilities

Make robust decisions

Focal question

Transparent and participatory

Horizon scanning

Context

Issues

Factors

Events

Ideas bank System mapping

Scenario generationStakeholder workshops

Influencing factors

Keyfactors

Consistency check

Narrative scenarios

Quantified scenarios

Modeling and simulation

Demand side

OutputsSupply

side

Pharmacy exampleScenarios

Scenario 1Narrower

Scenario 2Internet-driven

Scenario 3Broader

Pharmacists role

Enabling technology

Projection 1

Projection 2 Scenario 4e-Pharmacy

Nu

mb

er

of

ph

arm

acis

ts (

full-

tim

e e

qu

ival

en

t)

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

02

01

2

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

Year

Scenario 1

Scenario 3

Scenario 2

Scenario 4

Pharmacy exampleHow uncertain is the future?

Pharmacy examplePolicy options

20%

35%

50%

5%10%

15%

A B C D E F

3%

One-off supply reduction Phased supply reduction

5 Years 10 Years

Po

licy

ou

tco

me

s

Pharmacy examplePolicy analysis

2

31

4

Policy options: A

B

C

D

E

F

Key points

What if the future is not what we expect?

Consider many futures Transparent and participatory approach

Four embarrassing admissions...

One

Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.

Two

Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.We don’t know what skills and competences are needed in future.

Three

Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.We don’t know what skills and competences are needed in future.We don’t know who is best to provide them.

Four

Focusing on only numbers doesn’t work.We don’t know what skills and competences are needed in future.We don’t know who is best to provide them.We don’t know what drives demand.

What about the rest of the system?

HealthPublic healthSocial care

2%

98%Workforces not yet

modelled

Workforces modelled to date

What about the rest of the system?

HealthPublic healthSocial care

10% Other health and support

21% Paid adult care and support

24%

Volunteer adult care and support

43%

Unpaid adult care and support

2% Workforces modelled to date

Not just workforce numbersWhat skills and competences are needed?

Competences

Skills

FacilitationLeadershipWellbeing

Knowledge Personal

Types of skill

Level of skill

Quantitative skills

Qualitative skills

What drives the demand for skills?

Demand for skills

Long-termconditions

Infectiousdiseases

Population

One-offevents

What drives the supply of skills?

Supply of skills

Skill mix

Education &training

Workforcesupply

Capacityto learn

A new challenge: Horizon 2035

What skills and competences do we have?

What might we need in future?

Understand who has what skills, the time spent on them and the cost

Prevent

Enable

Assess

Plan

Treat

Rehabilitate

Relieve

Link

Unpaid adult social care workforce

Nurses

Dentists

Medical generalists

Medical specialists

Volunteer care and support workforce

Other workforce groups

Workforce groups

Po

pu

lati

on

Learning disabilities

Oral health

Singular demand for service

Maternal and perinatal

Infectious disease

Mental long-term conditions

Physical long-term conditions

Understand how the population drives the demand for skills, the proportions and costs

Understand how demand is met by your workforce today

Understand which workforce groups deliver what skills to meet demand.How might demand change in future?What are the workforce pressures?

Po

pu

lati

on

Learning disabilities

Oral health

Singular demand for service

Maternal and perinatal

Infectious disease

Mental long-term conditions

Physical long-term conditions

Skill level: 1 2 3 4 5

Understand how workforce skills meet the demands of the population

Prevent

Enable

Assess

Plan

Treat

Rehabilitate

Relieve

Link

Unpaid adult social care workforce

Nurses

Dentists

Medical generalists

Medical specialists

Volunteer care and support workforce

Other workforce groups

Workforce groups Increasing concentration and experience

Future demand for skills

Different futures

Drivers of future demand

Future skill levels

More information

Horizon 2035 Future demand for skills: Initial results

http://www.cfwi.org.uk/publications/horizon-2035-future-demand-for-skills-initial-results

Barriers and enablers for effective workforce supply

Barriers and enablers

Table exerciseToday and in the futureKeep answers shortAs many as possible in 10 minutesBest ones first – no repetition!

What next?

Your chance to voteImportanceDot votingFeedback at close

tRethinking workforce planning for the future

Dr. Graham WillisHead of Research and Development, CfWIE: graham.willis@cfwi.org.ukT: +44(0)78 1234 0405

# nhsworkforcesupply

# nhsworkforcesupply

Workforce Innovation

The Holistic Worker model

Background – Nottingham City

• 39, 200 over 65’s • 18,200 of these were living with one or more Long Term Conditions.• 11,182 admissions over 65 and out of these 7198 had a hospital stay of over 2

days

Urgent Care Service (UCS)

• Health & social care crisis to avoid admission to hospital or to care homes • Facilitate discharge from hospital “front door”• 2hr response time, 48hr intervention time

Challenges we faced

•Lack of clinical capacity•Inter-team referrals•Impact on time, resource and effectiveness•Fear of the unknown •Protectiveness •Lack of understanding of each others roles •Medical model V Social care model •Right care at the right time in the right place

• Team engagement - working differently• Core & Clinically specific competencies• Teaching element from existing skills• Observation in practice• Reflective group work• Review

How we changed

• Skilled, holistic workforce • Reducing the number of times a citizen has to tell

their story• Reducing duplication • Releasing time to care • Raising confidence in a range of health and social care

skills • Providing greater job satisfaction• Lowering barriers and increased sharing • Improving recruitment & retention

What we have learnt

• Urgent care trained• Competency framework redesigned• Band 3• Assessor guide• Internal ratification• Accreditation & training guide• Roll out to Reablement teams• Roll out to neighbourhood & Specialist teams• Creation of a physical and digital sharing platform for model• Evaluation

What are we doing now?

• Relevant to citizen outcome• Workforce and skills shortage• Opening up health sector• Growing our own• Becoming a Provider with learning and

education at its heart• Platform for Integration with social care

The Future

Enough of me

# nhsworkforcesupply

# nhsworkforcesupply

# nhsworkforcesupply

Understanding the

Workforce

How ESR can help

James Haddon

Development Advisor

Agenda

• Overview of ESR

• Understanding the workforce

• Understanding the education and training needs of

your workforce

ESR Overview

• Currently pays approximately 1.4 million employees

• Contains:

– HR & Payroll

– Competency / Skills / Qualifications

– Learning Management

– Occupational Health / Employee Relations

– Business Intelligence

Business Intelligence

• Key to using ESR data to make decisions

• Available to managers and central functions

• Full suite of standard reports provided

Key Questions

• Are staff meeting their requirements?

• Do we have the numbers of staff budgeted for?

• Where are problem areas in the organisation?

• Which training courses will we need to ensure we

have in place and at which times?

Understanding the Workforce

Workforce

Existing Job Capacity

Diversity

Turnover Rate and

Stability

Competencies and Gap Analysis

Performance Ratings

Demonstration

Workforce Profile

Turnover / Stability

Compliance

• Recorded in ESR as ‘Competencies’

• Requirements set centrally

• Managers and Employees see status on learner

homepage

• Compliance Dashboard provides:

– Matching

– Selective Matching

– Expiration Prediction

Selective Competency Matching

Compliance Expiry Timeline

Employee / Manager View

Right to Work

Performance

Performance

Performance

Conclusion: Understanding the Workforce

Workforce

Existing Job Capacity

Diversity

Turnover Rate and

Stability

Competencies and Gap Analysis

Performance Ratings

Conclusion

• Gain visibility into employee workforce

demographics, performance, and progress.

• Managers and Employees have the access to view

reports on their employees and their own

compliance.

• Processes in place to capture data and

requirements

Further Information

• ESR Website : http://www.esr.nhs.uk

– ESR Account Manager

– ESR Transition & Enhance

• Kbase: http://www.esr.nhs.uk/kbase

– Guide to National Dashboards

– Captivates

CWPT Business Intelligence Reporting

BI reports we use frequently

• Appraisal report

• Turnover report

• Training report

Appraisal report benefits:

– Instant results

– Enables exclusion of new starters

– Enables exclusion of open ended sickness

Turnover report benefits:

– Instant results

– Accurate

– Enables exclusion of leaving reasons

Training report benefits:

– Instant results

– Huge time saver due to calculated compliance

– High visual impact due to RAG coding

– Very informative due to inclusion of future bookings

– Simple to understand as based on competencies

Training report pre-requisite:

– Requires competencies to be set up in order to work

• Large project involving identification, mapping and data load

of training needs analysis

• Requires an on-going admin support to sustain data quality

Training report screenshot:

# nhsworkforcesupply

@NHSE_Ruth

# nhsworkforcesupply