near real-time verification at the forecast systems laboratory: an operational perspective michael...

Near Real-Time Verification At The Forecast Systems Laboratory: An Operational Perspective

Michael P. Kay (CIRES/FSL/NOAA)Jennifer L. Mahoney (FSL/NOAA)

Background

Aviation forecast verification project initiated in the early 1990s in the Aviation Division of Forecast Systems Laboratory

Initial RTVS was created in 1997. Version was transferred to operational environment at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC).

Real-time means 'as soon as possible'

System has matured to support a diverse set of forecasts with an emphasis on aviation

Fully-automated; runs 24/7 without human intervention

RTVS has an aviation focus but also includes other areas

Supports numerous forecast types including human-generated, numerical models, and algorithms from both operational and experimental settings

Example session of a user generating a time series of Critical Success Index (CSI) for two different products for an arbitrary date range

Components of a Verification System

Data Ingest

Data Pre-processing

Data Storage and Archive

Analysis and Visualization

VerificationThe actual comparison of forecast and observations

RTVS Architecture

10 node/20 CPU cluster

Redundant ingest, scheduling, database, and web servers

Currently process more than 10 Gb per day

Online storage capacity of nearly 7 Tb

Data Ingest

Scheduler

ComputationalCluster

Relational Database

Web Interface

ChallengesMeeting the needs of numerous user groups (forecasters, managers, etc.)

Creating and implementing relevant scientific techniques

Defining and meeting user requirements! (hardware and software) Is the project feasible?

Understanding what information is relevant to present Displays (e.g., maps) are highly relevant in real-time Other tools may be more useful in longer-term settings

Data management

Training and documentation

Knowledge of hardware and software performance is crucial

Real-time displays that combine meaningful information

Summary and Future Directions

www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/

Real-time verification is a challenging exercise requiring expertise in meteorology, statistics, software and hardware design

Forecast verification is only one part of a verification system

Numerous lessons learned over the last 10 years are factoring into a re-engineering effort to produce the next-generation RTVS