navigating waves of change: driving academic improvement in northern kentucky in challenging times,...

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Navigating Waves of Change:

Driving Academic Improvement in Northern Kentucky in Challenging

Times

Scholastic Inc.

March 2011

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Executive Summary

• The economic health and welfare of the region is dependent upon the educational attainment of the population.

• Attractiveness of the region to businesses seems most closely related to the number and percent of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher level of education.

• Therefore, the success of the region is dependent upon driving an expansion of the current education pipeline.

• Please note that the education expansion is occurring in the midst of a rise in two groups; – 1) economically disadvantaged children and – 2) children from households that speak a language other than

English.

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Executive Summary

Educational Attainment PipelineStudents entering grade 9

proficient in reading and math

High school graduates prepared for post-secondary success

Enrolled in college

Complete college

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Education Pipeline Challenge

Source: National Center on Education and the Economy

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Educational Attainment Analysis

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Educational Attainment

Source: ACS Data

Percent of Population Over 25 Years of Age with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher ACS Estimate Based on 2005-2009 Data

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Campbell Kenton Boone Grant Pendleton Gallatin

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Educational Attainment for Adults 25+ Years of Age in 2009

Source: ACS Data

LocationBA or Higher

Washington DC MSA 47.3%San Francisco MSA 43.5%Boston MSA 42.2%Raleigh NC MSA 42.2%Madison WI MSA 41.0%Austin TX 38.7%MA State 38.1%Denver CO 37.6%Minneapolis MN 37.6%Columbus OH 33.3%Charlotte NC 32.4%Indianapolis IN 31.1%Illinois State 30.6%Jefferson Co KY 29.6%Boone Co KY 29.6%St Louis MO 29.4%Kenton Co KY 29.3%Cincinnati MSA 28.5%United States 27.9%Pittsburgh PA 27.9%Cleveland OH 26.9%Campbell Co KY 26.7%Ohio State 24.1%Tennesssee State 23.0%Indiana State 22.9%Kentucky State 21.0%West Virginia State 17.3%

Scholastic Inc. 8Source: US Census

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Educational Attainment

Source: Brookings

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Graduation

Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

Graduation Rates Six-Year Graduation Rates of Bachelor's Students - 2008

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Educational Attainment Challenge

Source: ACS 2009 KY State data

Educational Attainment for Adults 25+ Years of Age in 2009

Percent Distribution

Median Income

Percent Below Poverty

Percent Not Employed

Percent Unemployed

Did not complete ninth grade 7.9%Did not complete high school 10.5% $16,127 32.4% 61.1% 16.2%

High school graduate (includes equivalency) 34.1% $24,002 14.8% 37.4% 10.5%

Some college, no degree 20.1% $29,191 11.5% 29.7% 8.2%Associates degree 6.5% $29,191 11.5% 29.7% 8.2%

Bachelors degree 12.5% $40,812 4.0% 17.6% 3.8%Graduate or professional degree 8.5% $50,980 4.0% 17.6% 3.8%

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High School Completion Challenge

High School Student Loss AnalysisBased on District Enrollment Data

GroupGrade 9 in 2007

Grade 10 in 2008

Grade 11 in 2009

Grade 12 in 2010 (Est)

Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 10

Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 11

Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 12

All 5,545 4,847 4,258 4,258 698 1,287 1,287

Estimated State & Federal Funding per Capita per Year = $5,287

2006 KY State Average

Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 10

Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 11

Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 12 TOTAL

$3,690,326 $6,804,369 $6,804,369 $17,299,064

Estimated Annual State & Federal Funding Loss per Cohort from Grades 9-12

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Demographic Analysis

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Demographic Data

• American Community Survey– Annual data from 2006 through 2009– Detailed demographic data for states, counties, and major cities

(population 65,000+)– Data covers topics including population, housing, income,

education, fertility, language, and poverty– US Census Bureau web site

• Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)– US Census Bureau web site

• Brookings Institution– Metropolitan Policy Institute– Demographic research in multiple areas, including poverty,

immigration, and children– Brookings web site

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Northern KY Enrollment ChallengeCombined Enrollment Growth from 2007 Through 2010

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

07 Enroll 08 Enroll 09 Enroll 10 Enroll

All

White

Econ Dis

SPED

Af-Am

Hispanic

LEP

Asian

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Northern KY Enrollment Challenge

Mean Annual Enrollment Growth for the Combined Districts from 2007 Through 2010

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Econ Dis All Hispanic Af-Am LEP Asian SPED White

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Poverty in Northern KY

Source: ACS

Percent Composition of Economically Disadvantaged Children Under 18 Years of Age in 2009

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Boone Co Campbell Co Kenton Co Combined 3Counties

CincinnatiMSA

Low Income in 09

Poverty in 09

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Poverty in Northern KY

Source: ACS

Gain in Percent Compostion of Children Under 18 Years of Age Living in Poverty from 2006 to 2009

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Kenton Co Combined 3Counties

Boone Co Cincinnati MSA Campbell Co

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Poverty in Northern KY

Source: ACS

Gain in Percent Composition of Children Under 18 Years of Age Living in Poverty and Low Income Households from 2006 to

2009

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Kenton Co Cincinnati MSA Combined 3Counties

Campbell Co Boone Co

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Under 18 Poverty in 2009

Source: US Census and SAIPE

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Poverty Challenge for Children

Source: Brookings Institution KY = 25.6% in 2009

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Household Languages for Children

ACS Data from 2009

Boone County,

Kentucky

Kenton County,

Kentucky Combined5 to 17 years: 22,714 27,781 50,495

Speak Spanish 1,086 646 1,732Speak other Indo-European languages 115 439 554Speak Asian and Pacific Island languages 735 597 1,332Total: 1,936 1,682 3,618

Source: ACS

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Economic Analysis

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Economic Forecast

• Economic Data

– County and MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) forecasts: Moody’s economy.com

– County and State employment data: Bureau of Labor Statistics

– State economic forecasts: Moody’s economy.com

– Federal economic data and analysis: Brookings Institution

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Employment Challenge

Source: BLS

Unemployment Levels in Northern Kentucky from 2007 Through 2010

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

Sept 07 Sept 08 Sept 09 Sept 10

Boone

Campbell

Gallatin

Grant

Kenton

Pendleton

Kentucky

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Employment Loss in Recession

Source: Brookings Institution

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Gender and Employment

Source: Brookings

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Employment and Education

Source: Brookings Institution 2010

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Employment Loss in Recession

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Employment and Education

Source: Brookings

Scholastic Inc. 31Source: Brookings Institution

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KY State Economic Forecast

Source: Moody’s Economy.com July 2010 Report

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KY State Economic Forecast

Source: Moody’s Economy.com July 2010 Report

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

122.9 125.8 127.0 127.0 123.4 Gross state product (C$B) 128.0 133.6 140.2 145.1 149.0

1,824 1,847 1,867 1,852 1,770 Total employment (000) 1,776 1,815 1,875 1,937 1,9741.4 1.2 1.1 -0.8 -4.4 % change 0.4 2.1 3.3 3.3 1.96.0 5.9 5.5 6.6 10.4 Unemployment rate 10.5 10.2 8.7 6.7 5.7

4,182 4,219 4,256 4,288 4,314 Population (000) 4,342 4,373 4,413 4,454 4,49220.5 18.3 17.2 14.0 10.9 Net migration (000) 8.0 11.8 19.5 21.2 18.4

17,929 13,496 11,553 6,892 5,978 Single-family permits 6,648 10,546 14,183 15,912 15,569274.9 284.6 292.6 296.8 296.5 House price index (1980Q1=100) 291.1 291.4 294.3 297.8 307.7

18,197 16,928 17,743 14,032 17,133 Mortgage originations ($mil) 13,447 9,822 10,699 12,587 14,044

4.5 6.4 4.5 3.6 0.5 Personal income growth 3.9 4.2 6.0 6.1 5.339,865 12,174 16,846 20,951 24,619 Personal bankruptcies 32,728 38,685 43,504 37,989 34,781

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KY State Economic Forecast

• Primary Economic Message: Slow Growth

• Job growth in Kentucky through the first half of 2010 exceeded the national average. But, job growth is slow.

• The unemployment rate is projected to stay above 10% into 2012.

• The driving force for the recovery is manufacturing. The primary rise is in auto parts related manufacturing. The state’s manufacturing industry is stronger than similar industries in the surrounding states and this could lead to a population influx.

• Single family housing starts are rising and with them, construction

employment.

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KY State Economic Forecast

• Secondary Economic Message: Challenges and Risks Remain

• Federal defense budgets should be carefully monitored, because Fort Campbell and Fort Knox are the two largest employers in the state.

• Watch the reduction in state and local jobs, because these two entities employ 284,000 workers. Sharp reductions in state and municipal employment could undermine the job recovery.

• The health of the auto industry should be carefully monitored, because transportation related manufacturing is a major driver of the state’s economy.

• Monitor the impact of federal health insurance laws, because the state’s top health care providers employ 35,000+ workers.

• Monitor risks in state and municipal pension obligations and funding

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March 2011 Economic Report

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March 2011 Economic Report

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March 2011 Economic Report

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March 2011 Economic Report

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Academic Analysis

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Northern Kentucky Districts

• Boone County: 1.Boone County School District and 2.Walton Verona ID

• Campbell County: 3.Campbell County School District, 4.Bellevue Ind. , 5.Dayton ID., 6.Fort Thomas ID, 7.Silver Grove, 8.Southgate, 9.Newport ID

• Gallatin County: 10.Gallatin County School District• Grant County: 11.Grant County School District and

12.Williamstown ID• Kenton County: 13.Kenton County School District,

14.Beechwood ID, 15.Covington ID, 16.Erlanger ID, 17.Ludlow ID

• Pendleton County: 18.Pendleton

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Combined Reading ChallengePercent of Students Reading Below Proficient on KCCT in 2010

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

All

White

Econ Dis

SPED

African Amer

Hispanic

LEP

Asian

Number of Students Reading Below Proficient on KCCT in 2010

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

All

White

Econ Dis

SPED

African Amer

Hispanic

LEP

Asian

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Combined Reading Challenge

Mean Annual Growth in KCCT Reading Proficiency From 2007 Through 2010

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

SPED All White Econ Dis LEP Hispanic Asian AfricanAmer

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Reading ChallengeComparison of 2007 NAEP Scales Scores

Kentucky State Reading Proficiency Cut Points Versus NAEP Basic and Proficiency Cut Points

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

KY G4 ProfCut Point

NAEP G4Basic SS

NAEP G4Prof SS

NAEP G8Basic SS

KY G8 ProfCut Point

NAEP G8Prof SS

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2005-06 Lexile Framework® for Reading Study Summary of Text Lexile Measures

600

800

1000

1400

1600

1200

Tex

t L

exil

e M

easu

re (

L)

HighSchool

Literature

CollegeLiterature

HighSchool

Textbooks

CollegeTextbooks

Military PersonalUse

Entry-LevelOccupations

SAT 1,ACT,AP*

* Source of National Test Data: MetaMetrics

Interquartile Ranges Shown (25% - 75%)

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Combined Math ChallengePercent of Students Scoring Below Proficient in Math on KCCT in

2010

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

All

White

Econ Dis

SPED

African Amer

Hispanic

LEP

Asian

Number of Students Scoring Below Proficient in Math on KCCT in 2010

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

All

White

Econ Dis

SPED

African Amer

Hispanic

LEP

Asian

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Combined Math Challenge

Mean Annual Growth in KCCT Math Proficiency From 2007 Through 2010

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

10.0%

All SPED LEP White Asian Econ Dis AfricanAmer

Hispanic

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Recommended Actions

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Take Action Today• Update your strategic and improvement plans

• Review academic needs and investments– Student need and placement– Effectiveness research and district gains – Professional development needs and programs– Educate your board and community on these trends

• Focus academic investments on reading and math interventions– Raise academic achievement– Raise high school completion rates

• Schedule your district’s data analytics meeting

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Annual Data Review

Key Academic Indicators

•Reading

•Mathematics

•Graduation & Dropouts

Human Capital & Curriculum Effectiveness

•Leadership

•Teachers

•School Culture

•Curriculum Review

State & Community Review

• Demographics

•Economics

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Tiered Reading and Math Instruction

Tier 1: Core instruction

Tier 2: Intervention for students 1+ years below grade level

Tier 3: Intensive intervention in foundation

skills

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Sam Howe

Vice President Academic Planning & Analysis showe@scholastic.com