nature-based tourism, outdoor recreation and adaptation to climate change
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Metsntutkimuslaitos Skogsforskningsinstitutet Finnish Forest Research Institute www.metla.fi
NATURE-BASED TOURISM, OUTDOOR
RECREATION AND ADAPTATION TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
Seminarium om Klimatfrndringar, turism och friluftslivstersund 16.4.2007
Tuija SievnenFinnish Forest Research Institute
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About this presentation
Background
FinAdapt Research Program
Report Nature-based tourism, outdoor recreation andadaption to climate change (Sievnen et al. 2005)
Sub-study of nature based tourism;
Researchers: Arvo Peltonen, Jarkko Saarinen,Kaarina Tervo
Sub-study of outdoor recreation
Researchers: Marjo Neuvonen, Eija Pouta, Tuija
Sievnen
Conclusions and discussion
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Background
Almost all (97 %) of Finns recreate outdoorsduring the year
Participation rates, examples 46 % in skiing activities
47 % in boating
46 % in fishing
40 % make a nature trip during a year
9 trips per year ( 2 median) 25 days (9 median)
5 days in average
distance to destination 300 km
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Background 4,9 million foreign travellers, of which about
participate in outdoor activities (2004)
Nature-based tourism is about one fourth partof the tourism in total
WINTER TOURISM IS GROWING FAST
Employment about 20 000-30 000 man-years
in nature-based tourism (2002)
in Finland, about 1 percent of labour force
in Lapland, 7 % of labour force
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Metsntutkimuslaitos Skogsforskningsinstitutet Finnish Forest Research Institute www.metla.fi
Sub-study 1: NATURE-BASED TOURISM ANDGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
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Objectives and Data
(1) the status of nature-based tourism entrepreneurs
knowledge about climate change and its effects onthe enterprises operations,
(2) where the knowledge originates, and
(3) what kind of adaptation strategies entrepreneurs
have
Total 19 interviews were conducted to tourismentrepreneurs in Northern Finland (n=9) and the
Finnish Lake District (n=10)
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Belief in climate change according to location and type of
operation of the enterprise
Northern
Finland
(n=9)
Lake District
(n=10)Region
0
20
40
60
80
100%
yes
nono
opinion
program
service
skiing centre
Type of operation
in Northern Finland
0
20
40
60
80
100
%
yesnono
opinion
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Impacts of predicted climate change as stated by tourism
entrepreneurs
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
longer winters
worse summers
longer spring and autumn
more variability, extreme
weather events
more rain
more snow
milder winters
more tourists to the north
environmental changes
longer summers
shorter winters
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Entrepreneurs assumptions about the impact of climate change on the
tourism industry
Northern Finland(n=9)
Lake District(n=10)
Region
0
20
40
60
80
100%
positive
negative
no impact
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Experiences of climatic variation affecting tourism
operations
More
experiences
in the North
Northern
FinlandLake District
Region
0
20
40
60
80
100%
Has climaticvariability
affectedoperations
yesno
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Adaptation plans
More plans in
the North
Northern
FinlandLake District
Region
0
20
40
60
80
100%
yesno
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Adaptation methods in use to cope with climatic variability in
Northern Finland
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
emphasizing summer
activities
increasing capacity
relocation of operations
product development
substitute activities
careful marketing
snowmaking facilities
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Concluding remarks of sub-study 1 Climate change is a minor threat for the nature-based tourism
industry for next twenty years
Disbelief in climate change and its impacts reduced the numberand forms of adaptation plans
No exact knowledge on possible impacts no efforts inadaptation strategies (worthless and waste of resources)
Belief: Capacity to adapting even at a short notice
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14/27Metsntutkimuslaitos Skogsforskningsinstitutet Finnish Forest Research Institute www.metla.fi
Sub-study 2: OUTDOOR RECREATION ANDGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
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Objectives of the study
to present scenarios of autonomous adaptation in
outdoor recreation behaviour
to discuss needs and options of adaptation Recreationists
Recreation service provision of public sector
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Method
LVVI data 15-74 years old Finnish population
Connected to weather data survey responses
Models binary logistic regression
left truncated negative binomial regression model
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Process
outdoor
recreationparticipation
Studying present
behaviour, exploring
explaining factors:
socio-economic
background
climate
unknown?
selecting
climatesensitive
activities
applying
scenario
information
in models
participation
scenarios,
Assumption:
no change in
behavior
CLIMATE A2 & B1
AGE, EDUCATION,
URBANIZATION...
CALIBRATED
WITH
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGEskiing
snowmobiling
swimming
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Demographic scenario
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2,4
2000 2020 2050 2080
population,million
4
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
5
5,25,4
5,6
population 65+ years population 35-64 years
population 0-34 years Total Finnish population
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Scenarios of cross-country skiing
Cross-country skiing
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
present near term mid-term long term
Par
ticipants,million/year
10
15
20
25
30
35
Partici
pationdays,million/yea
r
participants climate (A2)
participants socio-economic
days climate (A2)days socio-economic
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Downhill skiingDownhill skiing
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
present near term mid-term long term
Participants,million/year
2
3
4
5
6
7
Participationdays,m
illion/year
participants climate change (A2) &
socio economicparticipants climate change (A2, B1)
days climate change & socio
economicdays climate change (A2, B1)
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Scenarios of Snowmobiling
Snowmobiling
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
present near term mid-term long term
Participants,m
illion/year
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Partic
ipationdays
,million/yea
r
participants climate change (A2) & socio-
economicparticipants climate change (B1)
days climate change (A2)
days socio-economic
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Swimming in natural waters
Swimming
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
present near term mid-term long term
Participants,million/year
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Particip
ationdays,
million/year
participants socio-economic
participants climate change (A2)
days socio-economic
days climate change (A2) & socio-economic
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Concluding remarks of sub-study 2
adaptation in recreation participation:
strongest decline in skiing and snowmobiling
increase in swimming
to adapt to climate change
skiers: 1) shift to other activities, 2) travellonger distance to ski, 3 ) use new types of
skies
snowmobilers: shift to other activities
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Concluding remarks of sub-study 2
recreation service providers:
trails on artificial snow
other options for services for alternative
activities
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Conclusions and discussion ski tourism enterprises may get new clients at
first, but on long run the industry may loose
clients as the number of skiers in populationdecline
the time perspective of climate change is too
long for tourism entrepreneurs
Information of climate change needs to be
regionally more specific
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Future research needs
Monitoring recreation and travel behaviour Awareness of climate change by tourists and recreationists,
their perceptions of the future conditions and options ofadaptation (contingent behaviour studies)
Regional differences; the possible transition of touristsand tourism industry to new regions
Economic, social and cultural impacts
Evaluation of potential adaptation mechanisms and strategies,and their economic, social and cultural impacts
Different time perspectives of adaptation in private and publicsector
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Which one is our future ?
THANK YOU !
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