natural hazards unnatural disasters · 5 year effects on growth (all disasters)5 year effects on...

NATURAL HAZARDS

UNNATURAL DISASTERS

www.worldbank.org/preventingdisasters

APURVA SANGHI, WORLD BANK

MARSEILLE, MAY 2014

Haiti Dominican

Republic

hazards

resilience

institutions

large disasters have

severe FISCAL effects

Large disasters raise budget deficit

in developing countries between

0.23% and 1.1%

1% of GDP

$10 million

2 million

malaria nets

Mali GDP

$1 billion

Agricultural growth GDP growth Industrial growth Agricultural growth

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Storms Droughts Earthquakes Floods

Agricultural growth GDP growth Industrial growth Agricultural growth

Storms Droughts Earthquakes Floods

5 year effects on growth (all disasters) 5 year effects on growth (severe disasters)

GDP WELFARE

less productive adults

malnourished children, through stunting, become

• lower body mass

• lower cognitive skills

Philippines: reading / math scores

0.75 SD lower for stunted children

“The freedom to achieve the

actual livings that one can have

a reason to value...”

- Amartya Sen

the benefits of resilence

avoiding disasters’ adverse effects are

high benefit-cost ratios

St Lucia hurricane

Jakarta flood

Istanbul earthquake

India (Rohini basin)

flood

+ 1.5

+ 3.7

+ 4.6

+ 5.7

nformation

Increasing accuracy of weather forecasts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

%

Day 5

Day 7

Day 10

Day 3

• China: b-c ratio 35 to 40

• Europe & Asia: b-c ratio 2 to 14

huge potential benefits

but many do not Some countries benefit…

make existing

information accessible

Mumbai

ncentives

“...rent control...among best-

understood issues in all of

economics...one of the least

controversial”

- Paul Krugman

provide secure title

In Peru, land titling associated

with 68% increase in housing

renovation within 4 years

nfrastructure

“safe prisons for all”?

Kuala Lumpur’s SMART tunnel, an example of critical

infrastructure tailored to a specific hazard

only as useful as the last

mile

Early warning systems

infrastructure

information

incentives

institutions