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1.
National Opinion Poll: October 2016 - for Publication on 23rd October 2016
2.
Introduction
A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday
Independent to be published on Sunday 23rd October 2016.
The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with
Government and party leaders, personal financial circumstances, opinions
on the recent Apple tax ruling, the Budget and the 8th Amendment.
Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.
Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror
the 18+ population profile.
942 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide.
Interviews were carried out between 8th to 20th October 2016.
Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+.
The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.2%.
3.
The survey results presented here are derived from The
Independent Newspaper Group/ Kantar Millward Brown Poll.
The poll was conducted among a sample of 1,000 adults
representative of the approximate 3.43 million adults aged
18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in the
home at 64 sampling points throughout the Republic of
Ireland. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.2%
The 942 interviews on the poll were carried out between 8th
to 20th October 2016.
The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines
set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and
Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the
report may be quoted or published on condition that due
acknowledgement is given to Kantar Millward Brown and The
Sunday Independent.
© Kantar Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2016.
Introduction
POLL
4.
The Results
5.
Coalition could have used Budget to stamp its identity on voters… but it failed
And so the phoney war continues. This latest Sunday Independent/Kantar Millward Brown Opinion poll, conducted
over twelve days that coincided with the Budget being introduced, in some ways reflects that Budget – it is quite
flat.
Reaction to that Budget was relatively muted (unsurprising given that there was in essence nothing of real note
announced on the day that hadn’t been flagged or was a topic of kite-flying well in advance). Similarly, this poll
throws up no ground shaking headlines on the face of it. That said, there are some notable dynamics to be
observed.
First off, the headline results. Support for all the parties has remained generally consistent. Fine Gael has slipped
one, with Fianna Fail and Labour up one. Sinn Fein remains unchanged. Nothing to get overly excited about so
(unless of course, you are a supporter of Labour).
But let’s look at the context if this. The backdrop to this poll is that this is a Government basking in relative
economic success, yet it’s struggling to transfer this optimism onto the mood of the nation.
Some of this is to be expected – given the tortuous birth of this administration, it is unsurprising that it will take
time to find its feet. However, some of this is also self-inflicted, with infighting and uncertainty the moniker of the
first six months of its tenure. Therefore the Budget could have been an opportunity to stamp its identity into the
psyche of the nation. Instead we got a rather tepid mismatch of consensus – a nil-all draw in soccer parlance.
So where does this leave us? Fine Gael, at 29pc, will be happy to remain at the top of the pecking order, although
Fianna Fail will also take solace. At 27pc, they are within a hairs breath of the lead party. Their redemption in the
eyes of the electorate seems to be ongoing – they have peaked to a three year high.
Sinn Fein has plateaued at 20pc – they often tend to reach this mark when there is no election on the horizon. For
them, they will hope to cement this position. However, having had adopted the mantle of the de facto lead
opposition party over the past few weeks, they may be somewhat deflated that this has not translated into
meaningful gains.
6.
Coalition could have used Budget to stamp its identity on voters… but it failed (Cont’d)
Labour, at 7pc, has edged marginally upwards, albeit off a small base. The party will take some solace in the fact
that they have at least arrested their decline. Whether this is a dead cat bounce or something more meaningful will
transpire over the coming months – the jury is still out on Brendan Howlin’s effectiveness as leader (25pc are happy
vs 47pc not).
The eclectic grouping of Independents and other parties has remained relatively steady since June, but are still a far
cry from their General Election performance. For some in the electorate, it may well be that they have flattered to
deceive.
And so, in many ways, the status quo remains, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fail in the ascendancy. Looking at the
diagnostics behind the headline figures, it points to a momentum that is arguably behind Fianna Fail. Fine Gael,
still trying to regain its collective mojo after the bruising election in February, is still finding its way in the new
political paradigm that collective governance entails. Fianna Fail has no such qualms at adaptation or evolution.
Looking at their respective leaders, it is interesting to note that the satisfaction ratings of them are stark in their
differences. 29pc are happy with Enda Kenny’s performance (albeit an increase of two points), whereas a steady
43pc are satisfied with Micheal Martin.
Among their own party faithful, Enda Kenny’s rating has also increased since June (more are satisfied {68pc vs 64pc
previously} and less are dissatisfied {23pc vs 31}). One would think that this will help Kenny’s personal remerging
mojo, and may provide food for thought for those waiting in the wings.
However, Fianna Fail supporters are even more strident in support of their leader (a consistent 77pc endorsement),
and this suggests at all is well within that camp.
7.
Coalition could have used Budget to stamp its identity on voters… but it failed (Cont’d)
More importantly is the measure of party toxicity. That is, who people would not vote for. Again, this suggests that
the momentum for the middle ground is behind Fianna Fail. Of the main parties (FG,FF, SF and Labour), Fianna Fail
continues to be least toxic – just one in five (21pc) say that they would not consider them. 32pc say they would not
consider Fine Gael, but as the lead party in a government, they are always going to be a lightning rod for any
disgruntlement (overall just 31pc are happy with this administration’s performance).
But among party supporters, the dynamics are even more enlightening. Just 13pc of FG supporters say that they
would not consider voting for Fianna Fail (thus making FF the least toxic party to FG). It suggests that some of Fine
Gael’s support may be somewhat soft, and open to a charm offensive by Fianna Fail.
Contrast this with FF supporters –they are a lot more surefooted in toeing the party line – 38pc would reject FG
outright. One senses that among their supporters, they feel that Fine Gael needs Fianna Fail more than Fianna Fail
needs Fine Gael. It signposts a deficit of confidence between supporters of the two parties.
It could be argued that Fine Gael is a victim of its own success having being returned to office. It now finds itself
on relatively unstable ground. The party will need to shore up its position, or change the perceived optics of what it
stands for; the alternative is that it may be sidestepped by a fickle electorate.
8.
National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions
9. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you
give your first preference vote?
Party Support – First Preference – Including Don’t Knows
Base: All Aged 18+ (942) Opinion Poll
October 2016
Including
Don’t Knows
%
Opinion Poll
October 2016
Excluding
Don’t Knows
%
22 29
6
8 21
27
15
20
1
2
12
15 22
Others
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Don’t know
26
7
24
3
18
2 4
3
14
Independents/others
General
Election Result
2016
%
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green Party
Renua Ireland AAA-PBP
Social Democrats
Greens
Others
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Green
10. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you
give your first preference vote?
Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)
Base: All giving a first preference
26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 25 29 24
29 27 26 30 29
29 28
25 27 27 24 26
21 22
20 21 20 18
19 19
23 23
24 22 24
26 27
19 19 21 19 19 21
16 22 20
24 22 26 21
26 24
21 21
21 21
14
20 20
8 8 8 10 9 9 12
8 6 7 9 7
5
6 8 6
7
7 6
7
7 8 1 1
2 1 1 1
1 2 2 1 1 1
2
1 3 1 1
1 1
3
3 2
18 15 18 14 17 18 15 20 21 23 23 23
32 23 20 20 24
19 22 27
14 15 Independents/
others*
Green Party
Labour
Sinn Féin
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
June
20th–28th
2013
%
Aug
3rd-12th
2013
%
Aug
17th-27th
2013
%
Sep
13th–25th
2013
%
Sep 30th -
Oct 9th
%
Nov
3rd-13th
%
Jan
15th-24th
2014
%
Feb
19th-28th
2014
%
Apr
5th-15th
2014
%
Jul
18th–30th
2014
%
Sep
9th-18th
2014
%
Oct
21st–31st
2014
%
Dec
8th-18th
2014
%
Jan 30th
-Feb 9th
2015
%
Mar 24th
- Apr 2nd
2015
%
19th-26th
June
2015
%
19th-30th
July
2015
%
28th Oct-
6th Nov
2015
%
* Includes all other parties
25th Jan-
4th Feb
2016
%
General
Election
2016
%
18th -30th
June
2016
%
Independents/Others: October 2016
AAA-PBP 2%
Social Democrats 1%
Independent Candidates 6%
Independent Alliance 5%
20th
Oct
2016
%
11. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you
give your first preference vote?
Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)
Base: All giving a first preference
* Includes all other parties
26
29 27
28 27 27
30
27 29
25 25
22 22
25 25
29
24
29 27
26
30 29 29
28
25 27 27
24 26
21 22
20 21
20 18
19 19
23 23 24
22 24
26 27
19 19 21
19 19 21
16
22 20
24 22
26
21
26 24
21 21 21 21
14
20 20
8 8 8 10
9 9
12
8 6
7 9
7 5
6 8
6 7 7
6 7 7
8
1 1 2
1 1 1 1 2 2
1 1 1 2
1 3
1 1 1 1 3 3
2
18
15
18
14
17 18
15
20 21
23 23 23
32
23
20 20
24
19
22
27
14 15
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jun 20th-28th 2013
Aug 3rd-12th 2013
Aug 17th-27th 2013
Sep 13th-25th 2013
Sep 30th-Oct 9th
Nov 3rd-13th
Jan 15th-24th 2014
Feb 19th-24th 2014
Apr 5th-15th 2014
Jul 18th-30th 2014
Sep 9th-18th 2014
Oct 21st-31st 2014
Dec 8th-18th 2014
Jan 29th-Feb 9th
2015
Mar 24th-Apr 2nd
2015
19th-26thJun 2015
19th-30thJul 2015
28th Oct-6th Nov
2015
25th Jan- 4th Feb
2016
GeneralElection
2016
18th-30thJune2016
8th-20thOct 2016
Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party Independents/Others*
Independents/Others: October 2016
AAA-PBP 2%
Social Democrats 1%
Independent Candidates 6%
Independent Alliance 5%
12. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you
give your first preference vote?
Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)
Base: All giving a first preference
28 27 27 30
27 29
25 25 22 22
25 25 29
24
29 27 26
30 29 27 27
24 26
21 22 20 21 20
18 19 19 23 23 24
22 24
26 26 27
19 19 21
16
22 20
24 22
26
21
26 24
21 21 21 21
14
20 20
10 9 9 12
8 6 7
9 7
5 6 8
6 7 7 6 7 7 8
14 17 18
15
20 21 23 23 23
32
23 20 20
24
19 22
27
14 17
INDEPENDENTS OTHERS*
LABOUR
SINN FÉIN FIANNA FÁIL FINE GAEL
*Includes all others (including Greens)
13.
Satisfaction with this new Government’s performance has
improved by three points since the summer, although twice
as many are unhappy
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
HIGHER AMONG %
35-44 34
ABC1s 39
Farming Community 48
Dublin Residents 36
Fine Gael Supporters 64 62%
31%
8%
Don’t know (11%)
Dissatisfied (60%) Satisfied
(28%)
HIGHER AMONG %
25-34 66
65+ 69
C2DEs 72
Munster Residents 70
Fianna Fáil Supporters 65
Sinn Féin Supporters 86
Ind/Others Supporters 79
Over Three in ten are happy
( )= June 2016 Results
14.
Satisfaction with Government Over Time
Base: All Aged 18+ ()
75 73 72 71 73 74 68 71
66 69 62
73 71 68 69 63 67
60 62 60 62
17 19 19 20 21 19
23 20 24
23 27
21 19 23
26 29 25
32 29 28
31
7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 11 6
9 9 5 8 8 8 9 11 8
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Don’t know
June
20th–28th
‘13
%
Aug
3rd-12th
‘13
%
Aug
17th-27th
‘13
%
Sept
13th-25th
’13
%
Sept 30th -
Oct 9th
‘13
%
Nov
3rd-13th
‘13
%
Jan
15th-24th
‘14
%
Feb
19th–28th
2014
%
Apr
5th-15th
2013
%
Jul 18th–30th
2014 %
Sep 9th–18th 2014
%
Oct 21st–31st
2014 %
Dec 8th–18th 2014
%
2014 results
2013 results
Jan 30th – Feb 9th 2015
%
2015 results
Mar 24th
- Apr 2nd
2015
%
19th-26th
June
2015
%
19th-30th
July
2015
%
28th Oct-
6th Nov
2015
%
25th Jan-
4th Feb
2016
%
18th-30th
June
2016
%
2016 results
8th–20th
Oct
2016
%
15.
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Satisfaction with Party Leaders
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
25 21 24 27 32
25 31 27 27 29 28
22 23 25 26 20 24 22
27 25 29 24
29 30 36 32 32
27
43 43
27 23 29 32 30 30 27 27 31 29
67 69 64 67
59 66
60 62 63 59 56 62 61 65
57 65 62 62
43 47 54 56
49 57
45 49 49 48 38 40
56 57 50
56 52 51 55 51 51 51
Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams
Don’t know (8) (10) (12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11) (11) (12)
Oct ’14 %
Dec ’14 %
Feb ’15 %
(17) (16) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (30) (27) (17) (20) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (18) (18) (17) (20) (21) (12) (18) (19) (18) (21) (18) (19)
Mar/ Apr ’15 %
June ’15 %
July ’15 %
Oct/ Nov ’15 %
Base: All Aged 18+ ()
Feb ’16 %
Jun ’16 %
Oct ’14 %
Dec ’14 %
Feb ’15 %
Mar/ Apr ’15 %
June ’15 %
July ’15 %
Oct/ Nov ’15 %
Feb ’16 %
Jun ’16 %
Oct ’14 %
Dec ’14 %
Feb ’15 %
Mar/ Apr ’15 %
June ’15 %
July ’15 %
Oct/ Nov ’15 %
Feb ’16 %
Jun ’16 %
Oct ’14 %
Dec ’14 %
Feb ’15 %
Mar/ Apr ’15 %
June ’15 %
July ’15 %
Oct/ Nov ’15 %
Feb ’16 %
Jun ’16 %
Brendan Howlin
Oct ’16 %
Oct ’16 %
Oct ’16 %
Oct ’16 %
16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny
HIGHER AMONG %
18-24 year olds 35
Farming Community 52
ABC1s 34
Dublin Residents 38
Fine Gael Supporters 68 59%
29%
12%
Don’t know (11%)
Dissatisfied (63%) Satisfied
(27%)
HIGHER AMONG %
45-54 year olds 67
C2DEs 66
Munster Residents 66
Fianna Fáil Supporters 72
Sinn Féin Supporters 83
Independent/Others 73
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
( )= June 2016 Poll Results
17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?
Satisfaction with Brendan Howlin
HIGHER AMONG %
55-64 32
ABs 32
C1s 29
Dublin Residents 29
Conn/Ulster Residents 29
Fine Gael Supporters 49
Labour Supporters 58
47%
25%
27% Don’t know (30%)
Dissatisfied (43%)
Satisfied (27%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Males 50
45-54 61
C2DEs 52
Dublin Residents 51
Fianna Fáil Supporters 58
Sinn Féin Supporters 73
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
( )= June 2016 Results
18.
40%
43%
18%
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Satisfaction with Michéal Martin
HIGHER AMONG %
55-64 year olds 57
65+ 49
ABC1s 48
Farming Community 57
Conn/Ulster residents 46
Fianna Fáil Supporters 77
Fine Gael Supporters 48
Don’t know (18%)
Dissatisfied (38%)
Satisfied (43%)
HIGHER AMONG %
45-54 year olds 49
C2DEs 45
Labour Supporters 60
Sinn Féin Supporters 58
Independents/Others 47
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
( )= June 2016 Results
19.
51%
29%
19%
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Satisfaction with Gerry Adams
Don’t know (18%)
Dissatisfied (51%)
Satisfied (31%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Males 33
18-24year olds 36
35-44 year olds 34
C2DEs 33
Dublin Residents 34
Munster Residents 34
Sinn Féin Supporters 76
HIGHER AMONG %
55-64 year olds 62
65+ 70
ABs 54
Farming Community 78
Conn/Ulster 63
Fianna Fáil Supporters 66
Fine Gael Supporters 67
Labour Supporters 55
Independents/Others 58
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
( )= June 2016 Results
20.
Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support
SATISFIED
DISSATISFIED
29%
25%
43%
29%
Enda Kenny
Brendan Howlin
Michéal Martin
Gerry Adams
Total
59%
47%
40%
51%
23 60 72 83 73
26 29 58 73 50
35 60 15 58 47
67 55 66 16 58
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Independent/ Other Party Supporters*
%
68 31 23 10 15
49 58 18 11 21
48 29 77 30 37
23 30 16 76 20
Enda Kenny
Brendan Howlin
Michéal Martin
Gerry Adams
* Includes all other parties
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Brendan Howlin is doing his job as leader of Labour?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
21. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?
Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil remain
the least toxic of the main parties, although Labour also
shows signs of improvement
WOULD NOT
CONSIDER
32%
22%
21%
38%
17%
18%
17%
10%
Feb June
Fine Gael (34) (35)
Labour (31) (28)
Fianna Fáil (24) (25)
Sinn Féin (37) (40)
Socialist Party (19) (16)
AAA-People
Before Profit (16) (17)
Green Party (n/a) (18)
Social
Democrats (9) (8)
October
Total Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Independent/ Other party Supporters*
%
- 31 38 64 51
14 - 23 44 27
13 40 - 45 35
61 41 54 - 43
29 9 21 12 11
30 18 26 8 10
16 18 24 19 8
14 9 15 5 5
* Includes all other parties
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
( )= Previous Results
22.
National Opinion Poll: October 2016 - Additional Questions for Publication on 23rd October 2016
23. Q. Do you think that Enda Kenny should remain as leader of Fine Gael, or should he resign?
Over half believe that Enda Kenny should resign; less than
one in two FG supporters are loyal to him
54%
24%
12% 10%
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 29
ABC1s 27
Farming Community 45
Dublin Residents 28
Satisfied with
Government 50
Conn/Ulster Residents 33
Fine Gael Supporters 49
Labour Supporters 30
HIGHER AMONG %
25-34 62
55-64 59
DEs 61
Munster Residents 67
Fianna Fáil Supporters 64
Sinn Féin Supporters 79
Independents/Others
Supporters 67
Should Remain (25%)
Don’t know (12%)
Should Resign (56%)
It depends (7%)
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
( )= June 2016 Poll Results
SHOULD KENNY RESIGN?
24.
Leo Varadkar is the is the clear front runner for Fine Gael
leadership in the event of Kenny resigning
%
28
19
10
11
10
22
Leo Varadkar
Simon Coveney
Richard Bruton
None of them
Somebody else
Don't know
Among FG Supporters: %
Leo Varadkar 39
Simon Coveney 25
Richard Bruton 12
None of them 4
Somebody else 6
Don’t know 14
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
Q. If Enda Kenny were to resign as leader of Fine Gael, who would you like to see replace him?
25.
Compared to June, in the midst of the Brexit announcement,
there is increasing confidence that the Government will last
longer
%
10
22
14
16
8
3
10
3
15
Up to six months (10)
Up to a year (27)
Up to 18 months (16)
Up to two years (19)
Up to three years (7)
Up to four years (3)
It will last full term (5)
It Depends (2)
Don’t know (11)
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
Q. In your own opinion, how long do you think the current Government will last in office?
October
Total
%
FG
%
FF
%
LAB
%
SF
%
Others
%
Up to 1 year 32 23 32 42 39 38
18 months to 2 years 30 36 41 33 25 28
3 years + 21 31 18 13 24 17
( )= June 2016 Poll Results
June
%
Up to 1 year 37
18 months to 2 years 38
3 years + 15
26.
Attitudes towards the recent budget are mixed at best: the
supporters of the opposition are generally underwhelmed
Interviews Post Budget Day %
37
35
16
12
The Govt should have introduced more tax
cuts for workers
The Govt should have introduced more
spending increases to Public services
The Govt got the balance between tax cuts
and spending increases about right
Don’t know/No opinion
Base: All Aged 18+ (interviewed after Budget day n =774)
Q. Which of the following statements best describes your opinion of the recent budget?
HIGHER AMONG %
Female 42
35-44 45
ABs 45
Munster residents 46
Fianna Fáil Supporters 41
Sinn Féin Supporters 40
HIGHER AMONG %
45-54 40
C2DE 38
Dublin Residents 42
Labour Supporters 42
Fianna Fáil Supporters 39
Sinn Féin Supporters 39
HIGHER AMONG %
Male 19
ABC1 19
Conn/Ulster Residents 20
Fine Gael Supporters 23
27.
16
52
30
2
Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are
personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as
you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR?
Better Off (17)
Same (53)
Worse Off (28)
Net Difference* (-11)
Compared to last year
%
-14
%
20
49
23
8
This time next year? October
2015
Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you
personally will be better off, worse off or in
the same situation as you are now?
Don’t know (2)
Personal situation: We are still cautious about the year
ahead
October 2017
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
Better Off (22)
Same (48)
Worse Off (22)
Net Difference* (0) -3
Don’t know (8)
*= Better off minus worse off ( )= June 2016 Poll Results
28. Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same
situation as you are now?
Historical Picture: Personal Situation Compared To This Time Last Year. Trended over time
17
27 24
27
11
5 6 7 10
4 4 7 6 8 8
12 13 11 16 16 16 17 16
49
59 60
46 43
29 34 33 32
27
33 29 31 32
27 31
43
40 39
48 48 53 52
34
15 16
27
46
66
59 60 57
68
61 63 64 59
64
57
41
43 40 35 33
28 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PreCelticTiger'92
MidCelticTiger'97
Post9/11 '02
Sep '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov'15
Feb '16 Jun '16 Oct '16
Net Change
-17 +12 +8 +0 -35 -61 -53 -53 -47 -64 -57 -56 -58 -51 -56 -45 -28 -32 -24 -19 -17 -11 -14
COMPARED TO LAST YEAR
BETTER OFF
SAME
WORSE OFF
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
29. Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same
situation as you are now?
Historical Picture: Personal Situation This Time Next Year. Trended over time
36
28 26 22
25 29 29 30
33 29 31
26
32
16 15 18 17 17
11 13 12 10 13
10 11 14
17 18 15
19 20 23 22 20
54
62 64 68 68
63 62 59 58
61 58
63
45
38 33 35
44
37
31
39
33 32 34
28 30
36
50
41 44
41 46
43 48 49
10
9 8
8 7 7 9 11 9 10 11 11
23
46
52
41
34 40
52
39
50 52 47
59 54
45
27
33 31 29
22 17
22 23
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
89 90 91Pre Celtic Tiger '9293 94 95 96Mid Celtic Tiger '9798 00Post 9/11 '02Sept '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Set '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Dec'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Dec '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15Oct/Nov '15Feb '16 Jun '16 Oct '16
THIS TIME NEXT YEAR?
BETTER OFF
SAME
WORSE OFF
NET DIFFERENCE
+26 +19 +18 +14 +18 +22 +20 +19 +24 +19 +20 +15 +9 -30 -37 -23 -17 -23 -41 -26 -38 -42 -34 -49 -43 -31 -10 -15 -16 -10 -2 +6 0 -3
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
30. Q. Do you think Government is correct or not to appeal the EU ruling that ordered that Apple should pay Ireland
€13 billion in back tax or not?
Opinion is somewhat divided on whether the Government is
correct to appeal Apple tax ruling
34%
44%
22%
HIGHER AMONG %
18-24 50
ABs 64
Fine Gael Supporters 61
HIGHER AMONG %
65+ 42
C2DE 37
Munster Residents 41
Fianna Fáil Supporters 42
Sinn Féin Supporters 48
Yes, Government is correct to appeal
Don’t know
No, Government is not correct to
appeal
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
IS GOVERNMENT CORRECT TO APPEAL APPLE TAX DECISION?
31. Q. Do you think Government will be successful in its appeal against the EU?
Few feel the Government will be successful in its appeal.
Even one in three (34%) Advocates of an appeal believe it
will flounder
39%
23%
39%
HIGHER AMONG %
ABs 33
Dublin Residents 30
Fine Gael Supporters 34
HIGHER AMONG %
25-44 year olds 45
C2s 45
Dublin Residents 43
Munster Residents 43
Fianna Fáil Supporters 44
Sinn Féin Supporters 51
Independent/Others 49
Government will be successful
Don’t know/No opinion
Government will not be successful
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
WILL GOVERNMENT BE SUCCESSFUL IN APPEAL?
32. Q. In light of the recent Brexit vote, there have been calls for a referendum to be held on the possibility of a
United Ireland. Are you personally in favour of a United Ireland or not?
In light of Brexit, half are in favour of a United Ireland,
although a sizeable minority are not
22%
51%
18%
9%
HIGHER AMONG %
Munster Residents 55
C2s 57
Sinn Féin Supporters 64
HIGHER AMONG %
ABs 27
65+ 29
Dublin Residents 29
Fianna Fáil Supporters 29
Yes, in favour of a United Ireland
It depends
No, not in favour of a
United Ireland
Base: All Aged 18+ (942)
PERSONALLY IN FAVOUR OF UNITED IRELAND
Don’t know/No opinion
33.
For more information, please contact: Paul Moran
paul.moran@millwardbrown.com 086 341 1970
Millbank House | Arkle Road | Sandyford | Dublin 18 t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie
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