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Motor Vehicle Pollution Control:Emissions Vs. Efficiency
Getting the Principles Right
July 24, 2013July 24, 2013
Michael P. WalshMichael P. WalshInternational ConsultantInternational Consultant
Founding ChairmanFounding ChairmanBoard of Directors,Board of Directors,
International Council on Clean International Council on Clean TransportationTransportation
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Air Pollution Remains Very Serious in Many CountriesEspecially PM2.5 And O3
Lelieveld, J., and F. J. Dentener (2000)
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Van Donkelaar et al. (2010)
����PM2.5����
PM2.5
O3
22
India: Many Cities Substantially Exceed WHO India: Many Cities Substantially Exceed WHO and Indian Air Quality Guidelinesand Indian Air Quality Guidelines
India Standard: 60µg/m3
Top 20 Mortality Risk Factors in India for 2010Top 20 Mortality Risk Factors in India for 2010Ambient PMAmbient PM2.52.5 is 5is 5thth leading mortality risk leading mortality risk
factorfactor
Ambient PM2.5 caused an estimated 627,000 deaths̴ 6% of all
deaths in 2010
55Source; WMO GHG Bulletin Number 8
CO2 Reached 400 PPM in the Last Few Weeks!
We Now Face A New Global Challenge: Climate Change
Arctic Ice MeltArctic Ice Melt
Increasing Droughts
Subtropics expected to expand with global warming.
Observations show 4 degrees of latitude expansion.
Fires Are Increasing WorldFires Are Increasing World--WideWide
BC: Linking Climate and Air PollutionBC: Linking Climate and Air Pollution
• Black Carbon (BC) is part of the air pollution mixture known as particulate matter (PM)
– Most strongly light-absorbing component of PM– Formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and
biomass, and is a major component of “soot”– Mainly found in the fine particle (PM2.5) fraction, which is most
strongly linked to adverse health effects
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Most Recent Study Says Black Carbon is Second Only To CO2Most Recent Study Says Black Carbon is Second Only To CO2
1010
Black Carbon is the Core of Diesel PMBlack Carbon is the Core of Diesel PM
Historical High Growth Has Resulted In Historical High Growth Has Resulted In Vehicles Being Important Contributor To Vehicles Being Important Contributor To
Local, Regional and Global PollutionLocal, Regional and Global Pollution
Looking Ahead, High Growth Is Looking Ahead, High Growth Is Anticipated, Placing Continued Pressure Anticipated, Placing Continued Pressure
On The EnvironmentOn The Environment
Note Especially Chinaand India
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Other Special Concerns With VehiclesJune 2012 - WHO Classifies Diesel Engine Exhaust
As Group 1 Known Carcinogen
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Other Special Concern:Widespread Other Special Concern:Widespread Exposure to Vehicle Emissions in Exposure to Vehicle Emissions in
Urban AreasUrban Areas
Transport Pollutionis Ubiquitous
What Can We Do About It?What Can We Do About It?Elements of a ComprehensiveElements of a Comprehensive
Vehicle Pollution Control StrategyVehicle Pollution Control Strategy
Better Air QualityBetter Air Quality
Clean Vehicle
Technologies
Low Low EmissionsEmissions
CleanFuels
Transportation & Land use Planning
Appropriate Maintenance
Technology Now Exists To Clean VehiclesTechnology Now Exists To Clean VehiclesU.S. and Europe LightU.S. and Europe Light--Duty VehicleDuty Vehicle
Emission StandardsEmission Standards
80
60 60 43
12
250
180
80
43
12
250
50 45 62 62
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6 U.S. Tier 2,Bin 5
ARBSULEV
Gasoline NOx Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 10
2005 2009 20142007/2009
mg/km
Euro 5+ (2011) and 6 include 6 X 1011/km particle number limitEuro 6 PM mass limit uses revised PMP mass protocol
Technology Now Exists To Clean VehiclesTechnology Now Exists To Clean VehiclesU.S. and Europe HeavyU.S. and Europe Heavy--Duty Engine Duty Engine Transient Cycle Emission StandardsTransient Cycle Emission Standards
3.50
2.00
0.40
1.50
0.65
0.26
3.0
3.0
1.0 1.
3
1.3
1.3
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
4
Euro IV Euro V Euro VI U.S. 2007 U.S. 2010(maxNOx)
U.S. 2010(std.)
Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 100
2005 2008 2013
g/kWh
Euro VI includes particle number limit
Even Starting To Be Phased in For Off Road Vehicles
Require PM and NOx aftertreatment
Require PM aftertreatment
Slide 19Slide 19
A Critical Technology: A Critical Technology: Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs)Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs)
Trapped SootTrapped SootCell PlugsCell Plugs
Exhaust InExhaust In(PM, CO, HC)(PM, CO, HC)
Exhaust Out Exhaust Out (CO(CO22, H, H22O)O)
*Removes 90+% BC, PM; also HC and CO
*Requires Ultralow Sulfur Diesel (ULSD)
2020
2121
2222
Benefits of Reducing Vehicle EmissionsBenefits of Reducing Vehicle Emissions
• Shindell et al. (2011) estimate adopting European vehicle standards in India, China, and other industrializing and developing countries could lead to:– 120,000-280,000 avoided premature
deaths in 2030 (valued at $0.6-2.4 trillion in 2006 USD)
– Mitigation of 0.2°C (+0.14°C/-0.17°C) Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical warming during 2040-2070
– 6.1 – 19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone related yield losses of major food crops
Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, M. Walsh, S.C. Anenberg, R. Van Dingenen, N.Z. Muller, J. Austin, D. Koch, G. Milly. 2011. Climate, health, agricultural and economic impacts of tighter vehicle emissions standards, Nature Climate Change, 1:59-66.
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Starting To Make Policy Progress on COStarting To Make Policy Progress on CO22..
US 2025:109�Canada 2025:109�
EU 2020: 95�
Japan 2020: 105�China 2020: 117�
S. Korea 2015: 153�
Mexico 2016: 173�
40�
60�
80�
100�
120�
140�
160�
180�
200�
220�
240�
260�
2000� 2005� 2010� 2015� 2020� 2025�
Gra
ms
CO
2 per
Kilo
met
er n
orm
aliz
ed to
NED
C �
US-LDV�
Canada-LDV�
EU�
Japan�
China�
S. Korea�
Australia�
Mexico�
Solid dots and lines: historical performance �Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets �Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets�Hollow dots and dotted lines: target under study�
[1]�China's�target�reflects�gasoline�vehicles�only.�The�target�may�be�lower�a er�new�energy�vehicles�are�considered.��[2]�US�,�Canada,�and�Mexico�light‐duty�vehicles�include�light‐commercial�vehicles.�
California Continues Technology Leadership
Model Year
NMOG+N
Ox (g/m
i)
150,000‐mile New Vehicle Fleet Average Emissions
25
LEV III Particulate Matter Standards
26
Evaporative Emissions
• Extend zero‐evaporative emissionrequirements currently in place for PZEVs to the entire light‐duty vehicle fleet by MY 2022
• Extend Onboard Refueling Vapor Recovery(ORVR) requirements to all complete vehicles less than 14,000 pounds GVWR
27
Climate Action ProgramClimate Action ProgramCalifornia California
Major Source of GHG Actions Taken
Passenger vehicles (LDV) GHG emission standards: 50% reduction by 2025
Electric vehicles (LDV) ZEV mandate; 15% of new sales by 2025
Heavy trucks (new) National standards for engines/tractors: 9-23% reduction by 2017
Heavy truck (in-use, California) Trailer aerodynamic devices: 5% reduction by 2016
Electricity 33% renewable by 2020
Combustion, fuels Cap and trade program, 2 auctions, $13/ton
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0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
LDV
On-
Roa
d V
ehic
les
Path to 2050: Path to 2050: CaliforniaCalifornia’’s Ons On--Road Vehicle FleetRoad Vehicle Fleet
Conventional Vehicles
Plug-In Hybrids
Hydrogen Fuel Cell & Battery Electric
Hybrids 79%
2929
Countries Must Be Decisive!Countries Must Be Decisive!China Announces A Clean Fuels China Announces A Clean Fuels
RoadmapRoadmapState Council Says:State Council Says:
50 PPM Sulfur Nationwide by End of 201450 PPM Sulfur Nationwide by End of 201410 PPM by End of 201710 PPM by End of 2017
Even Quicker in Key RegionsEven Quicker in Key Regions
Brazil Leapfrogs While Chile Innovates: PROCONVE
Santiago Adopts EURO III Bus Standards PLUS Particulate Filters
31
Berlin Leads On Environmental ZonesBerlin Leads On Environmental ZonesRestrict Vehicles; Stimulate Clean UpRestrict Vehicles; Stimulate Clean Up
Stage 1 from 1.1. 2008:Vehicles (lorries and passenger cars) must at least meet the requirements of Pollutant Class 2 of the national vehicle label schemeTherefore, vehicles with red, yellow and green stickers are allowed.
Stage 2 from 1.1.2010:Only vehicles in Pollutant Class 4—thus, only vehicles with green stickers—can drive in the zone.
The environmental zone covers Berlin’s inner city within the urban railway ring. It is an area of approximately 88 km2, which is especially densely developed. Approximately one million of Berlin’s 3.4 million inhabitants live here.
New Ideas Must Be TriedNew Ideas Must Be TriedHeavy Duty Diesel I/M ConceptHeavy Duty Diesel I/M Concept
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Complementary Measures: Key Types Complementary Measures: Key Types Of Financial Approaches To Reduce Of Financial Approaches To Reduce Emission Levels From Road VehiclesEmission Levels From Road Vehicles
vehicle tax
registration tax annual tax
tax feebate tax feebate
fuel tax
financial approaches
© OECD/IEA 2011
The original Bonus/Malus
It was announced in Sept 2007, to start in January 2008, designed to be €€€ neutral-5gCO2/km every 2 yearsSpecial Bonus for hybrids and LPG : 2000 €
CO2, g/km Barème, €>250 2600
De 201 à 250 1600De 166 à 200 750De 161 à 165 200De 131 à 160 0De 121 à 130 200De 101 à 120 700De 61 à 100 1000
<60 5000
Malus
Bonus
(If under 110 gCO2/km)
French Feebate System Led To French Feebate System Led To Significant Drop In COSignificant Drop In CO22 EmissionsEmissions
2001–2007 avg. reduction new vehicle CO2 = 1 g/km per year2008: emissions drop 9 g/km and 2009 by 7 g/km, Ministry of Transport attributes to introduction of bonus/malus system
Source: Les véhicules particuliers en France (Ademe), March 2011
© OECD/IEA 2011
Impact on other characteristics
Average weight and power decreased fast
Source: Ademe
Feebate Vs. Fuel Economy Feebate Vs. Fuel Economy Regulation?Regulation?
vehicle regulation“PUSH”
manufacturers
vehicle taxation“PULL”customers
provides certainty of fuel consumption decrease
provides certainty of cost effectiveness
Important Role of Complementary Policies
Today, At Least 16 Countries Have Some Form Of Today, At Least 16 Countries Have Some Form Of COCO22 Or Fuel Efficiency Tax On LightOr Fuel Efficiency Tax On Light--duty Vehicles. duty Vehicles.
• New vehicle purchase or registration:– Austria, Canada, Finland, France, Ireland,
Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, U.S.A.• Annual or recurring registration fee:
– Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Sweden, UK
• Sources: N.A. Braathen, 2010. “Incentives for CO2 Emission Reductions in Current Motor Vehicle Taxes”, ENV/EPOC/WPNEP/T(2009)2/FINAL, Environment Directorate, OECD, Paris.
• H. He and A. Bandivadekar, 2011. “A Review and Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Policies Associated with New Passenger Vehicle CO2 Emissions”, ICCT, February.
COCO22 Labeling In Combination With COLabeling In Combination With CO22 TaxTax
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Bellagio Principles Should Guide Bellagio Principles Should Guide PolicymakersPolicymakers
• Design Programs & Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel
• Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A System
• Expect & Require Best Technologies and Fuels Worldwide – in Both Industrialized and Developing Countries
Thank You
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