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ACHIEVE MORESM
MITIGATING RISK FOR
OUR CLIENTS
March 17, 20201
MITIGATING RISK FOR OUR CLIENTS
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Our research & analytics teams are turning over every stone to try to help fortify client business in these challenging times. The following slides detail the immediate media and business implications of the rapidly changing consumer response to coronavirus.
We were founded on planning client investments with the best possible return before placing a single dollar. And right now, it doesn’t make sense for every business to spend on media. But it also doesn’t make sense for every business to not spend. We’re committed to finding areas of opportunity for our clients.
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CHANGING CONSUMER BEHAVIORS: Comfort and safety take priority
Nesting behavior, mandated or self-imposed, reflect the biggest changes in consumer behavior and media consumption. Viewership and mobile consumption will be on the rise as travel, events and gatherings are cancelled. From a purchasing standpoint, this presents an opportunity for:
Media consumption: TV, video, gaming, mobileGamified or entertaining brand interactionsE-commShare of voice penetration as other advertisers pull back
Psychologically, risk aversion will drive purchasing. This presents an opportunity for:Established brands and top productsSafety and prevention features, guarantees and insuranceAdded value and CRM initiatives
TV VIEWERSHIP UPDATE
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NIELSEN’S COVID-19 PREDICTIONSWhile the current COVID-19 is unprecedented, Nielsen used recent events, as well as trends in viewership in countries hit earlier to estimate changes in media viewership to be expected
15.5 16.318.1
14.8 14.5 14.9
5
10
15
20
25
Week 2 (February) Week 3 (February) Week 4 (February)
2020
2019
South Korean TV UsageTotal Day, Total Person
Hurricane Harvey: TV UsageHouston, Total TV Rtg %35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2020/staying-put-consumers-forced-indoors-during-crisis-spend-more-time-on-media/
Estimated maximum possible increase to amount of content
viewed caused by viewers staying put in homes
VIEWERSHIP TRENDS YEAR-OVER-YEAR
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On top of decreases in ratings year-over-year, March often represents its own slump in ratings, but increases in viewership in the last couple weeks have brought us closer to 2019 viewership level then than any other time in 2020.
85%
90%
95%
100%
32500
35000
37500
40000
42500
45000
Week 52 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10Week 11
2020 Viewership (000)
% of 2019 Viewership
2018: 97% Month-over-month
Viewership Retainment for the Last Month
43.6MM
44.8MM
Week 11
Week 7
40.0MM
42.1MM
Week 11
Week 7
2019: 95% Month-over-month
38.3MM
38.4MM
Week 11
Week 7
2020: 100% Month-over-month
DAILY VIEWERSHIP TRENDS: MARCH 2020
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While the first case of COVID-19 in the United States was reported in late January of 2020, the last couple weeks have been a turning point for many Americans with last Friday being a clear shift in public response, and viewership.
United States TV UsageTotal Day, Total Person
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
32500
35000
37500
40000
42500
45000
02/24
/2020
02/25
/2020
02/26
/2020
02/27
/2020
02/28
/2020
02/29
/2020
03/01
/2020
03/02
/2020
03/03
/2020
03/04
/2020
03/05
/2020
03/06
/2020
03/07
/2020
03/08
/2020
03/09
/2020
03/10
/2020
03/11
/2020
03/12
/2020
03/13
/2020
2020 Viewership (000) % of 2019 Viewership
DAYPART VIEWERSHIP
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With Americans spending more time from work than ever, we expect the increases in viewership across dayparts, and particularly in weekday daytime, to continue
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DIGITALINVENTORY
SOUTH KOREAN DIGITAL PERFORMANCE WAS STRONG DURING SOCIAL DISTANCING
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Our Digital Subsidiary, Broadbeam, places several digital campaigns in South Korea and we saw ROAS increase during the peak weeks of coronavirus. In the U.S., digital consumer behavior will adapt over the next few weeks to news developments surrounding the virus as more time is spent at home, daily routines are interrupted, and consumers spend more time with their devices.
Luxury, entertainment, leisure and travel advertisers are cutting back on ad spends across the board while other industries ramp up their digital investments. A healthy supply of digital impressions will continue to be available, and digital ad spends are bound to be reallocated to varying channels to capitalize on opportunity.
Based on performance data from South Korea, digital rates and demand will continue to fluctuate and ultimately normalize across the board. The number of advertisers pulling back spend in tandem with advertisers aiming to capitalize on increased supply will balance out digital rates.
MOBILE & CTV USAGE WILL GROW MOST DRAMATICALLY
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Demand for a growing supply of digital ad impressions will spur the following trends:► Increased mobile device usage will increase available supply across all channels. China saw a
20%+ increase in mobile usage during peak periods.► Desktop media channels will see a smaller increase in CPMs, with the exception of Audio and Paid
Search, which will see a decrease. Non-OTT/CTV video will see the largest increase in rates, followed by Display and Native.
► Digital Out of Home CPMs will decrease significantly as news encouraging social distancing.► News sites with native, display and video ad slots will fluctuate in rates when buying
programmatically as advertisers determine the brand effects of advertising on virus-related news.► Based on performance data from South Korea, digital rates and demand will continue to fluctuate
and ultimately normalize across the board.
IMPACT VARIES BY INDUSTRY
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CONSUMER SPENDING (70% OF US GDP) IS COMING TO AN ABRUPT STOP
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► Service, travel & tourism, and entertainment are the hardest hit industries
► Airlines predicted to lose between $63bn and $113bn
Delta slashed flights 40% (more than post 9/11)
► Economy will shrink in Q2 at a faster rate than when Lehman collapsed -20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Shopping Malls Airports Grocery Stores Fast FoodRestaurants
Casual Restaurants
Visits: Feb vs March 2020
Visit somewhat less frequently Visit much less frequently
Source: Washington Post, Mfour, Vox
BIG-BOX RETAIL IS SURGING
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-10%0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Non-perishable Food Supplies Medical Supplies Multipurpose Cleaners & Wipes Cold & Flu Remedies
US Sales % Growth YoY
Before COVID (12/28/19) After US COVID (2/1/20) Further into US COVID 2/29/20
In-Store Visits; Late Feb-Early March
+25% +27% +32% +29%
ACHIEVE MORESM
CONTROLLING WHAT WE CANKeep in touch with consumer sentiment:
Understand past research might not still hold trueRecent syndicated studiesLook for our upcoming rapid custom panel survey—field to analysis in 2 weeks
Take advantage of impression arbitrage if it works for your businessIf you can advertise, look at the increased media consumption as a buying opportunity
Track your business results against the outbreak maturityCorrectly manage where you are in the cycle based on available data from other countriesLink media investment to the supply chain
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