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RIDERSHIP FORECASTING:Don’t Overthink It

Jim Archer

METRO, Director of Service Planning, Scheduling, and

Evaluation

Houston, Texas/USA

Houston METRO: Bigger In Texas

Category By The Numbers

Service Area 1,303 sq. mi.

Boardings / Routes(FY2015)

Local Bus 57.9M80 routes

Park & Ride Bus 8.4M30 routes

Light Rail 15.3M3 lines

Paratransit 1.9M

Bus Stops 8,970

Long, Long Ago In An AdministrationFar, Far Away…

Shirley A. DeLibero,

President and CEO

Houston METRO

1999 - 2004

HOW THE QUEST FOR A MORE

ACCURATE RIDERSHIP FORECASTING

PROCESS STARTED

“OK. So you’ve proven that there’s a reason

for the change in ridership. But what will our

overall ridership be next month? Each

month for the rest of the year? And for next

year?” (paraphrase)

Ridership:

Flying Square Circles: Start With What You Know

• Varies by Month (seasonal)

• Varies by Calendar Mix (unique combination of service

Weekdays, Saturdays, Sundays)

• Varies by Weekday, Saturday, Sunday (work /

discretionary trips)

• Varies by Holidays

Flying Square Circles:What The Process Looks Like

JULY 2010 (FY2010)

Weekday June July Difference % Difference

FY2005 276,971 260,407 (16,564) -6.0%

FY2006 286,554 272,053 (14,501) -5.1%

FY2007 284,511 263,951 (20,560) -7.2%

FY2008 289,221 284,657 (4,564) -1.6%

FY2009 237,873 227,938 (9,935) -4.2%

Average 275,026 261,801 (13,225) -4.8%

FY2010 222,042 211,365 (10,677) -4.8%

Boardings

Estimated Average Weekday 211,365

Number of Weekdays 21

Estimated Weekday – Monthly 4,438,665

Boardings

Weekday ( A ) 4,438,665

Saturday ( B ) Xxx

Sunday ( C ) Xxx

Independence Day ( D ) Xxx

Month ( J = ( A + B + C + D )) J

Boardings

October Xxx

November Xxx

December Xxx

January Xxx

February Xxx

March Xxx

April Xxx

May Xxx

June Xxx

July J

August Xxx

September Xxx

TOTAL

• Highly accurate for 8 years

• Accuracy in last two years were coincidental

- Hurricane Rita

- No Hurricane

• Modification required due

to “perceived precision”

Flying Square Circles:What The Results Were

FixedRoute

Forecast Actual Difference % Difference

FY1999 98,284,290 98,017,633 - 266,657 - 0.27%

FY2000 97,724,464 97,710,653 - 13,811 - 0.01%

FY2001 98,019,384 97,467,564 - 551,820 - 0.56%

FY2002 93,516,677 92,875,580 - 641,097 - 0.69%

FY2003 89,464,098 89,157,148 - 306,950 - 0.34%

FY2004 86,855,547 86,527,841 - 327,706 - 0.38%

FY2005 81,166,665 80,475,640 - 691,025 - 0.85%

FY2006 87,693,729 87,185,154 - 508,575 - 0.58%

Composite 732,724,854 729,417,213 - 3,307,641 - 0.45%

New Bus Network:What The Results Are (as of June 30, 2016)

Mode Challenges

Local Bus New Bus Network yet to be implemented (starting August 16, 2015)Saturday service increase + 37%Sunday service increase + 93%

Light Rail – Red Line New 6-minute headway on northern end (started May 23, 2015)Connections to new Green and new Purple linesNew Bus Network yet to be implemented (starting August 16, 2015)

Light Rail – Green Line Opened May 23, 2015Multiple closures during May – June 2015 due to floodingNew Bus Network yet to be implemented (starting August 16, 2015)

Light Rail – Purple Line See “Light Rail – Green Line”

Commuter Bus Flat ridership trend in FY2015 despite increased layoffs in oil and gas industry – primary employers in downtown served by 90% of Park and Ride routes

FY2015 Ridership Forecast Due on July 3, 2015 Prior to June 2015 ridership data availability

After 9 months, the variance is – 3.6%, with more than one third of the variance explaining by severe flooding in October, April, and May.

• Restated in formal budget because forecast anticipated a ridership loss

• Accused of “sabotaging” routes whose actual ridership were closer to forecast than goal

• Created more accurate forecast than required federal process leading to internal pressure to abandon process

Accurate Results Lead to “Unanticipated Consequences”

An Ideological Nightmare: Route 500 Airport Direct

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1stMonth

2ndMonth

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8thMonth

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12thMonth

500 Airport Direct - Weekday Boardings - Goal, Forecast, Actual

Goal Forecast Actual

Although there was disappointment in the actual ridership, the actual ridership was highly comparable to the ridership forecast

Another Ideological Nightmare: Route 285 Kingsland / Uptown

Contrasting Methodologies: Green and Purple Rail Lines

Methodology Variance

EIS Forecasting -61.5%

Budget Forecasting + 3.6%

Outthinking Myself: Route 53 Westheimer - Sunday

o Opportunity to redeploy resources to get new serviceo Proposed new Sunday service on route with weekday / Saturday

serviceo Developed adjustment factors for weekday to Sunday, and

Saturday to Sundayo Developed “average” Sunday ridership based upon proposed

service levelso Results were between 1,600 and 1,900 average daily boardingso Previous highest first year ridership total was 1,275 boardingso Adjusted forecast to 1,400 boardings – still highest ever but…

Actual first year average was 1,800+ boardingsIf only I’d applied more trust…

• Seasonality is critical

• Initiate with what you know

• Make history your friend

• Prepare for opposition

• Leave holidays, weather alone

• Evaluate each year

DON’T OVERTHINK IT

Jim Archer

james.archer@ridemetro.org

713-739-6820

Questions / Comments